New Presidential Poll

[OverSword 58,406]

So quite a while ago there was a poll as to who you believed would win the next election.  Circumstances have greatly changed so I think it's time for an updated poll.  Remember this is not who you would vote for but who you think will win.

Edited October 27, 2020 by OverSword

[Desertrat56 22,944]

Why did you leave Jo Jorgensen off the list?  Just because you think she hasn't a chance, doesn't mean it can't happen.  You might underestimate the number of people who do not want to choose one of the crazy old men.  Maybe I over estimate the number, but neither of us really knows what will happen.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Desertrat56

[quillius 3,173]

Percentage Of Bets (on oddschecker) On Each Candidate for the 2016 & 2020 Elections

	Hillary Clinton	Donald Trump (2016)		Joe Biden	Donald Trump (2020)
Jan 2016	14%	23%	Jan 2020	8%	55%
Feb 2016	26%	12%	Feb 2020	4%	47%
Mar 2016	8%	14%	Mar 2020	24%	47%
Apr 2016	7%	15%	Apr 2020	25%	60%
May 2016	7%	47%	May 2020	29%	58%
June 2016	15%	60%	June 2020	37%	54%
July 2016	25%	49%	July 2020	29%	57%
Aug 2016	22%	39%	Aug 2020	34%	59%
Sept 2016	31%	35%	Sept 2020	41%	52%
Oct 2016	32%	48%	Oct 2020	32%	61%

 

interesting that a majority of bets are on Trump but Biden still favourite........maybe the short odds put the average punter off backing Biden (as a possible explanation)

[quillius 3,173]

A Flourish char

2016 v 2020 Election Odds Compared

Implied chance of winning (UK odds) on the 1st of each month

	Hillary Clinton	Donald Trump (2016)		Joe Biden	Donald Trump (2020)
Jan 2016	58% (8/11)	11% (8/1)	Jan 2020	13% (13/2)	52% (10/11)
Feb 2016	52% (10/11)	23% (10/3)	Feb 2020	14% (6/1)	57% (3/4)
Mar 2016	62% (8/13)	29% (5/2)	Mar 2020	13% (13/2)	60% (2/3)
Apr 2016	68% (8/17)	17% (5/1)	Apr 2020	42% (11/8)	50% (1/1)
May 2016	74% (4/11)	22% (7/2)	May 2020	44% (13/10)	50% (1/1)
June 2016	65% (8/15)	33% (2/1)	June 2020	48% (11/10)	48% (11/10)
July 2016	74% (4/11)	25% (3/1)	July 2020	60% (4/6)	36% (7/4)
Aug 2016	65% (8/15)	35% (15/8)	Aug 2020	62% (5/8)	36% (7/4)
Sept 2016	74% (4/11)	25% (3/1)	Sept 2020	50% (1/1)	50% (1/1)
Oct 2016	70% (4/9)	27% (11/4)	Oct 2020	58% (5/7)	42% (11/8)

 

wow, I never knew Hilary was such a strong favourite last time....

Edited October 27, 2020 by quillius

[Desertrat56 22,944]

13 minutes ago, quillius said:

Percentage Of Bets (on oddschecker) On Each Candidate for the 2016 & 2020 Elections

	Hillary Clinton	Donald Trump (2016)		Joe Biden	Donald Trump (2020)
Jan 2016	14%	23%	Jan 2020	8%	55%
Feb 2016	26%	12%	Feb 2020	4%	47%
Mar 2016	8%	14%	Mar 2020	24%	47%
Apr 2016	7%	15%	Apr 2020	25%	60%
May 2016	7%	47%	May 2020	29%	58%
June 2016	15%	60%	June 2020	37%	54%
July 2016	25%	49%	July 2020	29%	57%
Aug 2016	22%	39%	Aug 2020	34%	59%
Sept 2016	31%	35%	Sept 2020	41%	52%
Oct 2016	32%	48%	Oct 2020	32%	61%

 

interesting that a majority of bets are on Trump but Biden still favourite........maybe the short odds put the average punter off backing Biden (as a possible explanation)

Wait, none of those add up to 100%, so what is missing?

[quillius 3,173]

2 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

Wait, none of those add up to 100%, so what is missing?

the other runners. Next best is Harris @ 200-1 and also Pence @ 400-1 .......

so basically a two horse race, no one else has a chance.

[OverSword 58,406]

26 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

Why did you leave Jo Jorgensen off the list?  Just because you think she hasn't a chance, doesn't mean it can't happen.  You might underestimate the number of people who do not want to choose one of the crazy old men.  Maybe I over estimate the number, but neither of us really knows what will happen.

Your faith is refreshing  

[Setton 8,929]

33 minutes ago, quillius said:

Percentage Of Bets (on oddschecker) On Each Candidate for the 2016 & 2020 Elections

	Hillary Clinton	Donald Trump (2016)		Joe Biden	Donald Trump (2020)
Jan 2016	14%	23%	Jan 2020	8%	55%
Feb 2016	26%	12%	Feb 2020	4%	47%
Mar 2016	8%	14%	Mar 2020	24%	47%
Apr 2016	7%	15%	Apr 2020	25%	60%
May 2016	7%	47%	May 2020	29%	58%
June 2016	15%	60%	June 2020	37%	54%
July 2016	25%	49%	July 2020	29%	57%
Aug 2016	22%	39%	Aug 2020	34%	59%
Sept 2016	31%	35%	Sept 2020	41%	52%
Oct 2016	32%	48%	Oct 2020	32%	61%

 

interesting that a majority of bets are on Trump but Biden still favourite........maybe the short odds put the average punter off backing Biden (as a possible explanation)

Kind of meaningless don't you think?

Seeing as it's illegal to bet on elections in the US. Everyone placing those bets has absolutely no say in the outcome.

[quillius 3,173]

4 minutes ago, Setton said:

Kind of meaningless don't you think?

Seeing as it's illegal to bet on elections in the US. Everyone placing those bets has absolutely no say in the outcome.

its just information , make of it what you will. 

I thought the comparison from 2016 was quite interesting...ie Trump had very little chance versus the closer race this time around.

[Setton 8,929]

2 minutes ago, quillius said:

its just information , make of it what you will. 

I thought the comparison from 2016 was quite interesting...ie Trump had very little chance versus the closer race this time around.

I just assumed that since you posted it, you thought it was information worth having and you would explain its value.

Apparently not.

[quillius 3,173]

a bit like your posts (opinions on the election)...hardly information worth having and has no bearing on the result as you are based in the UK and therefore not voting....

even for you that was a very poor dig....you are normally better than that....oh well

[Robotic Jew 5,580]

20 minutes ago, quillius said:

its just information , make of it what you will. 

I thought the comparison from 2016 was quite interesting...ie Trump had very little chance versus the closer race this time around.

I don't think it's as close as what's being projected. I imagine we will end up in the same position as we did in 2016. Biden will win the popular vote and trump will eek out the electoral college vote and remain in office.

[quillius 3,173]

1 minute ago, Robotic Jew said:

I don't think it's as close as what's being projected. I imagine we will end up in the same position as we did in 2016. Biden will win the popular vote and trump will eek out the electoral college vote and remain in office.

who knows.....I would however tend to agree that it will play out as you suggest

[and then 48,241]

15 minutes ago, Robotic Jew said:

I don't think it's as close as what's being projected. I imagine we will end up in the same position as we did in 2016. Biden will win the popular vote and trump will eek out the electoral college vote and remain in office.

Possibly, but it isn't going to really matter even if Trump manages to win the EC AND the popular vote.  The Left have made it clear they will accept nothing short of a Biden victory.  The only question left is how far they'll be willing to "resist" his election this time around.  We are living in interesting times.

[susieice 41,071]

Early voters want to change their vote.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/26/early-voters-want-to-change-vote-after-hunter-biden-exposes/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8884129/Trump-claims-early-voters-want-change-vote-wake-second-debate-Biden.html

[Robotic Jew 5,580]

32 minutes ago, and then said:

Possibly, but it isn't going to really matter even if Trump manages to win the EC AND the popular vote.  The Left have made it clear they will accept nothing short of a Biden victory.  The only question left is how far they'll be willing to "resist" his election this time around.  We are living in interesting times.

Project much?

[and then 48,241]

4 minutes ago, Robotic Jew said:

Project much?

Right... because cities in Republican states have been burning all summer, yeah?  So tell me, if he wins and the blue states/cities explode, how will you react?  Will it be justified?  

[Robotic Jew 5,580]

17 minutes ago, and then said:

Right... because cities in Republican states have been burning all summer, yeah?  So tell me, if he wins and the blue states/cities explode, how will you react?  Will it be justified?  

They're not burning because of trump....or the election.

Depends on how he wins. If he wins straight up then it won't be justified. If he wins by pretending there is fraud and taking it to the corrupt supremes then I'll be out there protesting with all of the other folks and it WILL be justified. 

[spartan max2 19,340]

I'm still thinking Biden. But to take my prediction a step further Im saying Ohio and Florida goes Trump and Michigan and PA goes Biden.

Edited October 27, 2020 by spartan max2

[OverSword 58,406]

21 minutes ago, Robotic Jew said:

They're not burning because of trump....or the election.

Here in the democrat stronghold of Seattle we had daily protests and vandalism for months in 2016.  Not to the extent that we do now, but now that it's a thing I predict there will be more violent anti-trump protests if he wins, which I don't think he will.

[Robotic Jew 5,580]

2 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Here in the democrat stronghold of Seattle we had daily protests and vandalism for months in 2016.  Not to the extent that we do now, but now that it's a thing I predict there will be more violent anti-trump protests if he wins, which I don't think he will.

He will. This country is hell bent on going in that direction. Boot lickers do abound. 

[Raptor Witness 2,601]

President Obama in Orlando Florida today. Skip to the 7:00 minute mark .... it’s probably the best speech of the year that I’ve heard, and I’m a marginal Obama fan.

 

[OverSword 58,406]

9 minutes ago, Robotic Jew said:

He will. This country is hell bent on going in that direction. Boot lickers do abound. 

Well then have fun burning and looting 

[OverSword 58,406]

10 minutes ago, Raptor Witness said:

President Obama in Orlando Florida today. Skip to the 7:00 minute mark .... it’s probably the best speech of the year that I’ve heard, and I’m a marginal Obama fan.

 

He blows it at 7:40.  Predicts the Devil Rays win the series.  No way.  Not enough depth on the mound.

Edited October 27, 2020 by OverSword

[Raptor Witness 2,601]

I’m looking on a very popular offshore betting site called Bovada, which is one of the larger sports betting sites located in Eastern Europe, and they’ve currently got Joe Biden sitting at 3/5, and Donald Trump at 8/5.

It looks like all bets have to be in by 8:00 PM on October 31st. Trick or Treat time .....  which is very interesting.

It looks like in the South Carolina Senate race, they’ve got some nice odds on Jamie Harrison, the Democrat at 7 to 1, with Lindsey Graham at just 1/16.  

Edited October 27, 2020 by Raptor Witness