2020 US election

[DingoLingo]

[ExpandMyMind]

Just now, the13bats said:

Right, trump "won" those in 2016 he will will win them bigger this time more people voted so trump will grab them bigger this time.

We don't know that. In fact, the way the night has gone, we don't have the first clue as to how the results in those states will turn out.

[DieChecker]

5 minutes ago, the13bats said:

.Now i bet Lichtman is a bit crest fallen, see his keys failed him, predictions are about as valuable as polls.

It will be interesting to see what excuses he provides.

[acidhead]

Just curious....

How is Kanye West doing tonight???

 

[DieChecker]

7 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

 

He's not projected to win all the states where he's currently leading though. You're confusing the two terms.

Florida 98% reporting - Trump by 3%

Georgia 71% reporting - Trump by 8%

Iowa 78% reporting - Trump by 2% 

Michigan  51% reporting - Trump by 11%

North Carolina 94% reporting - Trump by 1%

Ohio 94% reporting- Trump by 8%

Texas 77% reporting - Trump by 5%

Wisconsin 77% reporting - Trump by 5%

Which of those is in dispute still? Perhaps by a miracle those around 50%-80% reporting, 

But these look pretty firm to me.

[the13bats]

27 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

2016 should have told these guys that trying to Make their guy win with "Weighted" polls just doesn't work. People still vote based on the time tested variables... The economy. 

I think that skewed polls thing is a very clever tactic, makes some believe like in 2016  they had it in the bag, and for some a biased poll is wishful thinking,

Trumps gets a lot of lesser of two evil votes, there were a lot of people who might have been okay with prez buden but not prez harris.

Edited November 4, 2020 by the13bats

[Davros of Skaro]

[DarkHunter]

For Biden to win Pennsylvania he needs to win about 66% of the remaining vote.

Interestingly in Pennsylvania there will be a court hearing tomorrow on ballots.  The issue is this, there were some number of mail in ballots that had some issue that should of disqualified them from counting but they were doctored by the people counting to have them meet the qualifications to be counted.  Republicans want those votes to be removed and the Democrats want them to be counted.  Hard to say what an impact that will have.

[the13bats]

14 minutes ago, acidhead said:

Just curious....

How is Kanye West doing tonight???

 

Who?

[ExpandMyMind]

18 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Florida 98% reporting - Trump by 3%

Georgia 71% reporting - Trump by 8%

Iowa 78% reporting - Trump by 2% 

Michigan  51% reporting - Trump by 11%

North Carolina 94% reporting - Trump by 1%

Ohio 94% reporting- Trump by 8%

Texas 77% reporting - Trump by 5%

Wisconsin 77% reporting - Trump by 5%

Which of those is in dispute still? Perhaps by a miracle those around 50%-80% reporting, 

But these look pretty firm to me.

Most of the Dem heavy counties are still waiting on votes being counted. Where are you watching? The dude on CNN is comparing the current votes in counties where the count is still low, even not considering the higher turnout, to the votes in the last election. You're talking hundreds of thousands of votes expected for Biden in many of these areas.

Basically with the mail in voting skewing heavily Democrat, the early leads seen by Trump in many states aren't in context. Just like the early leads for Biden in states where they were counted first weren't accurate. It's fairly simple to follow. You're looking at Trump's leads in those states outwith the context of this election. Virginia was a perfect example of this. You're not looking at where the votes still to come in are located. 

Trump could still win but he's not "projected" to win in many of the states where he's currently leading.

Edited November 4, 2020 by ExpandMyMind

[the13bats]

6 minutes ago, Davros of Skaro said:

Well, lets be honest, he might look like that in his mind and to you but reality...

[ExpandMyMind]

4 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

For Biden to win Pennsylvania he needs to win about 66% of the remaining vote.

Interestingly in Pennsylvania there will be a court hearing tomorrow on ballots.  The issue is this, there were some number of mail in ballots that had some issue that should of disqualified them from counting but they were doctored by the people counting to have them meet the qualifications to be counted.  Republicans want those votes to be removed and the Democrats want them to be counted.  Hard to say what an impact that will have.

Considering most of those votes are in areas that traditionally vote Democrat and that the 1 million mail in ballots still to be counted will very likely, following the trend of the rest of the election, be overwhelmingly Democrat, 66% isn't exactly out of the realm of possibility.

As to your claim, more bull**** accusations by Republicans. I mean they already tried to have hundreds of thousands of drive-thru votes thrown out on a technicality. And Trump already claimed that votes shouldn't be counted after the day of the election, specifically because he knows how important PA would be if Dem mail in votes weren't counted. 

He outright told us of his plan to do this long before any fabricated accusations. 

[acidhead]

.

 

[Davros of Skaro]

7 minutes ago, the13bats said:

Well, lets be honest, he might look like that in his mind and to you but reality...

So that's why I get such a good night's sleep!

[DieChecker]

7 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Most of the Dem heavy counties are still waiting on votes being counted. Where are you watching? The dude on CNN is comparing the current votes in counties where the count is still low, even not considering the higher turnout, to the votes in the last election. You're talking hundreds of thousands of votes expected for Biden in many of these areas.

Basically with the mail in voting skewing heavily Democrat, the early leads seen by Trump in many states aren't in context. Like the early leads for Biden in states where they were counted first weren't accurate. It's fairly simple to follow. You're looking at Trump's leads in those states outwith the context of this election. Virginia was a perfect example of this. You're not looking at where the votes still to come in are located. 

Trump could still win but he's not "projected" to win in many of the states where he's currently leading.

Yes, but... Let's assume a 70% reporting state with +5% for Trump. Now that last 30% has to cover that 5% PLUS  more to win, by a slim margin. Which isn't crazy, but historically just hasn't happened before.

We'll have to wait and see, I guess.

[Great Old Man]

Scenario #1 Trump Win

 

 

 

Scenario #2 Biden Win

 

[ExpandMyMind]

7 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Yes, but... Let's assume a 70% reporting state with +5% for Trump. Now that last 30% has to cover that 5% PLUS  more to win, by a slim margin. Which isn't crazy, but historically just hasn't happened before.

We'll have to wait and see, I guess.

Seriously. I know you guys don't like CNN but switch it on for the guy on the map. He's honestly explaining not how 'Trump won't win' but how the numbers in some states aren't accurate because of the areas and types of votes that are still to come in. He's explaining it methodically and impartially. It's simple numbers. Check it out.

Take Michigan for example. Early votes counted is at something like 15% while 55% of all votes are projected to be early votes. That's a huge number of overwhelmingly Dem votes still to be counted.

Edited November 4, 2020 by ExpandMyMind

[+and-then]

2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Ultimately people put too much stock into presidential elections.  The reality is regardless of who is president America is a massive juggernaut of a country with a political structure that opposes rapid change so the president only has minor ability to change the course of the nation in general.  If Hiliary would of won in 2016 or Biden in 2020 stuff would still be 98% the same if not completely the same.  

Historical trends may not stand at this point.  If Biden and the quintessential political HO he chose for a veep manage to win and the Ds control House and Senate we can fully expect some MASSIVE  and long lasting damage done to our Republic.  Do you doubt they will add DC and PR as states?  That they will pack the court?  Consider what they've done for 4 years.  I don't believe they will have ANY restraint if they win.  OTOH, if they become so besotted with power that they go for 2A, everything changes.

[DieChecker]

Most now calling Iowa for Trump

Most now calling Florida for Trump

[acidhead]

Welcome to the club.

 

[DarkHunter]

1 minute ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Seriously. I know you guys don't like CNN but switch it on for the guy on the map. He's honestly explaining not how 'Trump won't win' but how the numbers aren't accurate because of the areas and types of votes that are still to come in. He's explaining it methodically and impartially. It's simple numbers. Check it out.

Take Michigan for example. Early votes counted is at something like 15% while 55% of all votes are projected to be early votes. That's a huge number of overwhelmingly Dem votes still to be counted.

CNN is largely being an outlier from just about every other poll.  I mostly been using Associated Press, with Fox and Washington Post as auxiliary sources.

The reality of the situation is that Trump is in a good position.  For example there is Pennsylvania.  In 2016 there were about 6 million votes cast in Pennsylvania.  Currently Trump has about 2.5 million compared to Biden having about 1.8 million.  Realistically there are only about 1.5 million votes left in Pennsylvania and for Biden to win it would require him winning over two thirds of those votes which is not a good position to be in.

[DieChecker]

2 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

CNN is largely being an outlier from just about every other poll.  I mostly been using Associated Press, with Fox and Washington Post as auxiliary sources.

 

I've been checking Politico also. I think they are using the AP decisions.

I watched about 10 minutes of streaming CNN and it appeared to me that the guy on the map was explaining HOW Biden might still win. He's not being impartial IMHO. He's trying to encourage the troops, when it appears the Germans are already in the trenches.

Edited November 4, 2020 by DieChecker

[Davros of Skaro]

10 car horn honks approve for Biden win.

[ExpandMyMind]

1 minute ago, DarkHunter said:

CNN is largely being an outlier from just about every other poll.  I mostly been using Associated Press, with Fox and Washington Post as auxiliary sources.

The reality of the situation is that Trump is in a good position.  For example there is Pennsylvania.  In 2016 there were about 6 million votes cast in Pennsylvania.  Currently Trump has about 2.5 million compared to Biden having about 1.8 million.  Realistically there are only about 1.5 million votes left in Pennsylvania and for Biden to win it would require him winning over two thirds of those votes which is not a good position to be in.

I'm not talking about CNN polls. I'm talking about the guy who's calling the states while looking at the map. Watch him. Seriously. He's probably the most rational person reporting on this election outside of PBS. And you're a numbers guy so I know you'll get it.

[acidhead]