Brexit Ball and Chain

[Ozymandias]

Pascal Lamy, onetime head of the World Trade Organization (WTO), speaking last year about the UK’s Brexit talks with the EU, the UK’s most important economic partner, stated:

“This will be the first negotiation in history where both parties started off with free trade and discussed what barriers to erect.”

Johnson and the Brexiteers promised an end to frictionless trade and instead negotiated more obstacles to trade in goods and the reality has become apparent this month. They have also presided over the erection of barriers facing British service companies operating in the EU, especially in finance. The result has been an immediate haemorrhage of £6 billion worth of 'city' business to the EU since the New Year.  

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) recently predicted that Britain’s economy will be 4% smaller as a result of Brexit. Four per cent does not look like much but it amounts to nearly £90 billion a year – every year – or £1,400 for every man, woman and child in the UK every year. Even if this  hit is an over estimate, the damage to the UK economy and its people is not negligible. Johnson may be able to hide the immediate worst effects of Brexit under a Covid-19 cloak but, as always, the truth will out in due course.

What of the UK’s ‘mass’ migration problem? Britain has more of its citizens living abroad than immigrants wanting to get into it. It seems more people have wanted out of the UK than wanted in. In recent years EU migration into the UK has fallen while that of non-EU citizens has been rising. The rate of non-EU migrants into Britain is now five times the number of those from the EU.

If this is true now without any divergence, what more barriers will be erected once divergence begins to take effect and the EU begin to impose counter-balancing tariffs and quotas as permitted under the UK-EU Trade Agreement?

I think the UK economy is now dragging a ball and chain of its own making.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Ozymandias

[stevewinn]

clearly someone is still hurting.

shall we listen to this French man's opinion? i think not.   

More forecasts and predictions if we go by their track record it will clearly not come to fruition - regardless of how much the remainers want it to happen.

remainers need to move on the United Kingdom has left the EU and is never returning. its a whole new world some need to get use to, talking of a whole new world..............

the new eu Irish french ferry route will cost each irish haulier £1,295

Using a freight booking agency it would appear that the Rosslare to Dunkirk service is £1,295 each way for a driver and lorry up to 13 metres long. A flat rate for goods vehicle whatever sailing you choose, and knowing DFDS those prices are not going to go down any time soon. Add the VAT on and it is £3,108 total for a return journey. Rosslare to Fishguard or Pembroke is a quarter of that price.

Dover to Calais is around £210 each way depending on timings.

No wonder Aidan Flynn is in full on panic mode.

meanwhile back over in the UK, remainers told us if we leave the customs union and single market Nissan Sunderland will close. reality,

 

 

[+OverSword]

44 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

“This will be the first negotiation in history where both parties started off with free trade and discussed what barriers to erect.”

In that case a no deal Brexit is the correct path and they should break off all negotiations 

[Helen of Annoy]

34 minutes ago, OverSword said:

In that case a no deal Brexit is the correct path and they should break off all negotiations 

Which is what their Trump clone promised them and then literally signed anything just to avoid no-deal Brexit. 

Makes one wonder is that Brexit insanity has any actual plan or they're just screaming "victory!" as they're hitting furniture on their way out. 

[stevewinn]

54 minutes ago, OverSword said:

In that case a no deal Brexit is the correct path and they should break off all negotiations 

Brexit as been achieved as of the 31st January 2020. The UK achieved what they said could not be achieved by the remainers and europhiles, they said the UK could not have a trade deal with zero tariffs and zero quotas. guess what the UK got zero tariffs and zero quotas, the first time the eu as ever agreed to such an arrangement.

The remainers/europhiles are still smarting that we achieved this. the UK as sailed away with all the loot. its bloody marvellous.

[Helen of Annoy]

9 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Brexit as been achieved as of the 31st January 2020. The UK achieved what they said could not be achieved by the remainers and europhiles, they said the UK could not have a trade deal with zero tariffs and zero quotas. guess what the UK got zero tariffs and zero quotas, the first time the eu as ever agreed to such an arrangement.

 Sure. 

 

9 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

The remainers/europhiles are still smarting that we achieved this. the UK as sailed away with all the loot. its bloody marvellous.

Thank you for displaying openly what Brexiter mindset truly is. 

 

 

 

Poor thing thinks there's loot for him there. steve, not only you voted to enable yourself being looted by your own Brexiter demagogues, but that ship you think is sailing somewhere is actually about to sink. In more than one piece.  

[stevewinn]

The old ball and chain. monumental mistake by the EU in pursuing 'one europe' is now costing lives as delays by the EU in ordering vaccine now start to take hold. once again the EU in the slow lane.

 

[Ozymandias]

50% of UK trade is with the EU. A free trade agreement with Japan only covers 2% and the FTAs with countries are more or less substitutes for the FTA you had with them via the EU. Any economist will tell you that good trading relations with countries nearest you is far better than good trading relations with countries on the other side of the planet.

 You can claim your so-called tariff- and quota-free withdrawal agreement with the EU is ‘free’, but it is not. It has erected a customs firewall between the UK and the EU where there was none. Some analysts already claim that in some areas it is adding up to 30% on goods imported from the EU. The administrative check on the flow of goods is detrimental to your trade and the disruption to your just-in-time supply chains is making them difficult to work efficiently, or to work at all. The paperwork associated with these checks is an added financial burden voluntarily imposed by the UK on that trade. Other analysts have calculated that the cost of the new customs procedures, certifications and border delays is an additional 8% to 15% on top of the value of the goods in transit. And all this before you diverge from the standards and rules that apply if you want continued access to the EU Single Market. As soon as you deviate from these EU Single Market requirements you will experience the imposition of additional tariffs and quotas.

Your points regarding the freighting of goods from the Republic of Ireland to the EU are ill-conceived. Before Brexit, half the goods sent by the Republic to the continent went over the UK land-bridge, the other half going direct to the EU mainland by ferry from Irish ports. In all there are nine such direct ferry routes. For months before Brexit occurred, our government has been advising Irish businesses – hauliers and their customers – to avoid using the UK land-bridge and instead freight goods using the direct ferry routes. Since January 1 the volume of goods sent via the UK landbridge has dropped by 50% and the volume going direct using our southern port ferries has increased accordingly, including more Northern Ireland lorries choosing these routes.. These direct sailings are at full capacity – in some cases overbooked – and there is a public clamour for more sailings to accommodate the increase in demand, which no doubt will happen very quickly. Irish businesses have obviously analysed their options and are switching because it makes overall financial sense.

Quote

the new eu Irish french ferry route will cost each irish haulier £1,295

Using a freight booking agency it would appear that the Rosslare to Dunkirk service is £1,295 each way for a driver and lorry up to 13 metres long. A flat rate for goods vehicle whatever sailing you choose, and knowing DFDS those prices are not going to go down any time soon. Add the VAT on and it is £3,108 total for a return journey. Rosslare to Fishguard or Pembroke is a quarter of that price.

Dover to Calais is around £210 each way depending on timings.

Furthermore, your analysis of the Rosslare-Dunkerque trade route was poorly done and incomplete. You say that the cost of the direct ferry on that route is £1295. Using the land-bridge the costs are £390 (ferry, Rosslare-Fishguard), £300-350 (diesel, Fishguard-Dover) and £220 (ferry, Dover-Dunkerque). That is a total of £960. An apparent saving of £335. But this does not include the HGV UK Road Tolls, parking fees, wear and tear on tyres and vehicle, the cost of paperwork, the penalty in driver’s time, and the costs associated with time delays crossing UK borders. Irish hauliers and their customers have done this type of analysis and chosen the direct ferry route, not the UK land-bridge. An additional benefit of the direct ferry route is the schedule certainty, no hassle or costs over customs paperwork, and the drivers arrive fresh and rested. All drivers must take a break from driving after 4.5 hours and cannot drive for more than 9 hours in any 24-hour period.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Ozymandias

[stevewinn]

3 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

50% of UK trade is with the EU. A free trade agreement with Japan only covers 2% and the FTAs with countries are more or less substitutes for the FTA you had with them via the EU. Any economist will tell you that good trading relations with countries nearest you is far better than good trading relations with countries on the other side of the planet.

 You can claim your so-called tariff- and quota-free withdrawal agreement with the EU is ‘free’, but it is not. It has erected a customs firewall between the UK and the EU where there was none. Some analysts already claim that in some areas it is adding up to 30% on goods imported from the EU. The administrative check on the flow of goods is detrimental to your trade and the disruption to your just-in-time supply chains is making them difficult to work efficiently, or to work at all. The paperwork associated with these checks is an added financial burden voluntarily imposed by the UK on that trade. Other analysts have calculated that the cost of the new customs procedures, certifications and border delays is an additional 8% to 15% on top of the value of the goods in transit. And all this before you diverge from the standards and rules that apply if you want continued access to the EU Single Market. As soon as you deviate from these EU Single Market requirements you will experience the imposition of additional tariffs and quotas.

Your points regarding the freighting of goods from the Republic of Ireland to the EU are ill-conceived. Before Brexit, half the goods sent by the Republic to the continent went over the UK land-bridge, the other half going direct to the EU mainland by ferry from Irish ports. In all there are nine such direct ferry routes. For months before Brexit occurred, our government has been advising Irish businesses – hauliers and their customers – to avoid using the UK land-bridge and instead freight goods using the direct ferry routes. Since January 1 the volume of goods sent via the UK landbridge has dropped by 50% and the volume going direct using our southern port ferries has increased accordingly, including more Northern Ireland lorries choosing these routes.. These direct sailings are at full capacity – in some cases overbooked – and there is a public clamour for more sailings to accommodate the increase in demand, which no doubt will happen very quickly. Irish businesses have obviously analysed their options and are switching because it makes overall financial sense.

Furthermore, your analysis of the Rosslea-Dunkerque trade route was poorly done and incomplete. You say that the cost of the direct ferry on that route is £1295. Using the land-bridge the costs are £390 (ferry, Rosslare-Fishguard), £300-350 (diesel, Fishguard-Dover) and £220 (ferry, Dover-Dunkerque). That is a total of £960. An apparent saving of £335. But this does not include the HGV UK Road Tolls, parking fees, wear and tear on tyres and vehicle, the cost of paperwork, the penalty in driver’s time, and the costs associated with time delays crossing UK borders. Irish hauliers and their customers have done this type of analysis and chosen the direct ferry route, not the UK land-bridge. An additional benefit of the direct ferry route is the schedule certainty, no hassle or costs over customs paperwork, and the drivers arrive fresh and rested. All drivers must take a break from driving after 4.5 hours and cannot drive for more than 9 hours in any 24-hour period.

UK trade with the EU as yet again fallen to 43%, a trend that's existed for well over a decade.

The UK & EU indeed signed a trade deal with zero tariffs and zero quotas. You seem to be under the misapprehension there was no paperwork before we left, that is incorrect there has always been paper work that needed filing for exporting and importing from the EU, thanks to the 'single market' which comprises of 9 different currencies in circulation, 24 working and official languages and more than 27 different business cultures. Even Ireland has a different currency, tax and excise duty, to the UK. and yet trade flowed across the border. but this is where countries are levying, and what's strange each country is levying different amounts, How can there be differing overheads between the nations in the EU? I thought that was the whole point of a trading bloc.. Distance and therefore transport cost varies, as does VAT, but other than that it is difficult to see why there are increased costs. but  there are hidden costs within EU prices which were covered by eu subsidies which are now coming to light under the new trading.

All this filling can be done weeks, months prior to shipping, the EU now insist on the paper work 11 different pieces, instead of the original 8. I've seen it in action. you complete the first - one click on the button and the rest of the forms auto fill. This isn't the era of the typewriter we've gone digital you know. All the ports are flowing freely, except for the odd incompetent haulier, which you always get regardless. 

in reply to sailing direct from Ireland to France, erm No,

And this is only one way. 24hr sailing meaning the lorry is tied up, remember the good old days before brexit the same journey the Irish lorry could've been in France and on its way back within 24hrs. that means the company now needs two lorries and two drivers to do the same journey. and now more part loads where half the load was for the UK, and the other half for Europe.

from Dublin Ireland to Holyhead Wales. 4hr crossing, then a 7hr journey via the UK to reach Dunkirk. total of 11 hrs.

Dublin Crossing. one way. then Dover - Calais.

 

 

So direct sailing from Ireland. £2,590,00 return. 24 Hour sailing.

Or

UK land Bridge, Dublin - Holyhead. 4hr sailing. 6hr drive to Dover, then Dover - Calais 2 hour sailing £1,097.18......12 Hrs. total. 

Bejasus

oh well, it will mean 150,000 less lorries congesting our roads, and less traffic at the ports. - i wonder what will happen when sailings are cancelled due to bad weather.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by stevewinn

[stevewinn]

the old ball and chain, Now the EU threatens the covid vaccine manufacturers with fines for late delivery, its funny that because the British vaccine has been ordered by the EU but not passed by the EU for use. and then the EU insists on having all 27 language printed labels, causing more hold ups. - (this is also the hold up with the Brexit UK -EU trade deal the document has to be translated and printed in 27 languages) and Astrazeneca cant print the labels yet because the EU medical agency hasn't decided on the wording.

You couldn't make it up, the EU makes an absolute mess in failing to order, which means it found itself last in the queue when ordering, and somehow this is the vaccine manufactures fault. Those who ordered early have no such problems. if i was the American and British vaccine makers I'd refuse to do business with the EU, let them go order the Sputnik V vaccine from Russia.

The British vaccine is even being offered to the EU at cost ie: no profit. but EU want to lawsuit them, when its an EU/ Belgian factory that cant produce enough of the vaccine. same with the US, but their charging a profit.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-eu-s-vaccine-catastrophe-is-a-crisis-of-its-own-making

https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-shortfall-threatens-eu-plans-to-boost-inoculations-11611423256

[Duke Wellington]

We are 24 days in and where is the economic collapse?

Nope cannot see it, not here, not there, its no where to be seen. The FTSE is about 400 points up, the pound is slightly stronger than the dollar, and even stronger against the Euro.

[stevewinn]

More news coming to light that France pressured EU to buy French vaccines over German. France denies the allegations. But German Karl Lauterbach of Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) has taken aim at France, stating that “the French insisted for the number of [BioNTech/Pfizer] doses to not be too large compared to [the number of French Sanofi doses] although this vaccine was far from ready.” this is why the EU rejected 100million doses of the American/German firm Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine. No doubt a decicion they'll regret now. Old ball and chain strikes again. 

[stevewinn]

The old ball and chain. 

Just look at them dates YEARS. Years........ 

[L.A.T.1961]

Regards vaccine supply the EU are upset as the, yet to be EU cleared, Oxford vaccine is not being restricted in UK.

So EU members have come to the conclusion that the UK is getting priority over their requirement's. 

I am sure this could not possibly be the case.  

 

 

[stevewinn]

13 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Regards vaccine supply the EU are upset as the, yet to be EU cleared, Oxford vaccine is not being restricted in UK.

So EU members have come to the conclusion that the UK is getting priority over their requirement's. 

I am sure this could not possibly be the case.  

 

 

You snooze you lose. 

[L.A.T.1961]

1 minute ago, stevewinn said:

You snooze you lose. 

You play multi dimensional politics and also lose. 

[Helen of Annoy]

If anyone is wondering why is Brexiter propaganda so focused at vaccination, it's because they screwed up with their "herd immunity" approach, which included sacrificing the weak. The result was uncontrolled spread of the virus, which gave us all the new mutation of COVID, colloquially called "British strain", which is more infectious and more deadly, The existing vaccines should be at least partially effective against it. Should be. 

So they're now vaccinating against old strains, after their recklessness helped produce the new strain. 

It would be hilarious if it wasn't disgusting and dangerous.  

 

[stevewinn]

The old ball and chain.

As desperation grows in the EU,  as they try to shift blame for their utter incompetence in procuring the vaccine. So now they want to seize vaccine sold to others. The smear campaign from Germany started early and the propaganda circulating in EU countries, calling us British guinea pigs for being the first to vaccinate in other words casting doubt over the vaccine. - fast forward and  this champaign resulted in yesterdays headlines of British vaccine only being 8% efficacy. turns out that is incorrect as Berlin back peddles. the EU want to see the order books of vaccine makers. to see who they are exporting to and contract details. which is illegal.

The EU twisting and turning to blame others for the gaps in their own vaccination programme.  Apparently the AstraZeneca vaccine 8% efficacy but the EU still ordered millions of doses, and threatens legal action if doses not delivered. why would you order if you know the vaccine is only 8% efficacy. its contradictory. the EU's heading for disaster. the good people of Europe deserve better. covid could prove to be one crisis to many.

the EU proving once again the decision of the British people to leave was indeed the correct one.

 

 

AstraZeneca legally safe from EU threats of court action. as AstraZeneca warned the EU of delays due to EU inaction and late ordering.

 

[RAyMO]

Its all going "smoothly" says Boris. This is Boris read what you like into that. 

Meanwhile Boris heads to Scotland to "save the Union" amid talk of a new constitutional settlement. 

All going smoothly.

[toast]

Someone has plenty of foam around the mouth here.

[stevewinn]

41 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

Its all going "smoothly" says Boris. This is Boris read what you like into that. 

Meanwhile Boris heads to Scotland to "save the Union" amid talk of a new constitutional settlement. 

All going smoothly.

There's elections in May. par for the course.

[stevewinn]

19 minutes ago, toast said:

Someone has plenty of foam around the mouth here.

American Pharma not happy with the EU. oh dear.

It goes from bad to worse.

what's it like in the bunker?

 

[Helen of Annoy]

2 hours ago, stevewinn said:

American Pharma not happy with the EU. oh dear.

It goes from bad to worse.

what's it like in the bunker?

 

Firstly, you're projecting again. You know you screwed up so thoroughly your population will soon want your Brexiter heads so badly you'll need actual bunkers to hide, only you're so good at planning you probably sold bunkers too to the Russian oligarchs. 

 

Secondly, it's the EU that's not happy with pharma companies that took the money but won't deliver the vaccine at the rate that was paid for. 

Because if you're able to deliver next year, your price must correspond to that fact. If you're charging for delivery right the **** now, and claim you can do that, then you deliver right the **** now or you suffer the legal consequences. 

Yeah, vaccination is not going fast enough. 

But it's obviously not EU's fault, like desperate propagandists are lying. The EU made all arrangements necessary. It's the fault of companies who guaranteed the rate of delivery they obviously can't keep. Which only proves further that companies from countries with crappy regulations shouldn't be trusted when buying vaccines (or other medical or in any way sensitive products). 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Helen of Annoy

[toast]

4 hours ago, stevewinn said:

what's it like in the bunker?

The wrinkled little cold war child felt addressed I would say.

[stevewinn]

The important difference between AstraZeneca's relationship with the UK and with the EU, and the reason it has fallen behind schedule on 50m vaccine doses promised to the EU, is that the UK agreed the deal with AZ a full three months before the EU did - which gave AZ an extra three months to sort out manufacturing and supply problems relating to the UK contract (there were plenty of problems). Here is the important timeline. In May AZ reached agreement with Oxford and the UK government to make and supply the vaccine.

In fact Oxford. Had already started work on the supply chain. The following month AZ reached a preliminary agreement with Germany, the Netherlands, France and Italy, a group known as the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance, based on the agreement with the UK. The announcement was 13 June. BUT the EU insisted that the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance could not formalise the deal. The European Commission insisted it should take over the contract negotiations on behalf of the whole EU. So were another two months of talks and the contract was not signed till the end of August

What is frustrating for AZ is that the extra talks with the European Commission led to no material changes to the contract, but wasted time on making arrangements to make the vaccine with partner sites. The yield at these partner sites has been lower than expected. The problem is in the course of being sorted. AZ say it is working 24/7 to make up the time and deliver the quantities the EU wanted. It says its contract with the EU - as with the UK - was always on a "best effort" basis, because it was starting from scratch to deliver unprecedented amounts for no profit. AZ is not blaming the EU. But it does not understand why it is being painted as the "bad guy" given that if the deal had happened in June, when Germany, the Netherlands, France and Italy wanted it done, most of these supply issues would already have been sorted. A pro-EU source at the company says "I understand Brexit better now. 

According to AZ, the EU claim that it pays less to AZ per dose, and that is why AZ "works harder for the UK than for the EU", is "completely incorrect". It charges the same price to all buyers, wherever they are in the world, subject to small adjustments due to local costs

The EU is a fecking embarrassment, and their dyed in the wool supports know it. Only have to look at the feeble replies on here from them. 

 

 

and the sad truth is it will cost lives.