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Hugh Mungus

NZ Earthquake Swarm- Tsunami Risk

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Hugh Mungus

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300245006/live-do-not-stay-at-home--urgent-calls-for-evacuation-after-third-quake-hits

Quote
  • Urgent Tsunami advice: People in certain east coast areas of the North Island must move immediately to high ground.
  • These areas are: Bay of Island to Whangārei, from Matata to Tolaga Bay, and Great Barrier Island. Civil Defence says you must move immediately
  • There have been three earthquakes near the Kermadec Islands, north-east of NZ, this morning.
  • These included a magnitude 8.1 earthquake, a 7.1m, and a 7.4m earthquake.

I didn't feel any of these quakes in Auckland.

Lots of people are rushing to high ground in the north and east of the North Island. First wave is expected in 10 minutes, but previous Tsunami warnings this morning didn't come to fruition.

 

Stay safe everyone

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Hugh Mungus
Quote
a minute ago
 
 

A report says the tsunami waves have come ashore at Nukualofa.

 
3 minutes ago
 
 

The first waves from the Kermedec magnitude 8 earthquake have been observed in Tonga, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre.

It appears that there may be some Tsunami wave coming, if these early reports are to be believed. I see the predicted worst case in parts of NZ is 3m.

The government and civil defense are holding a press conference in 45 minutes, which is odd seeing as everyone affected will still be at the top of various hills around the country by then

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Hugh Mungus
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Whangarei resident Adam Janes, who was working at the port when he received the alert message just before 9am, said the water appeared to have already lowered in some areas.

 

"I was just leaving the port and caught a glimpse of the main town basin and I have never seen it that low. You could see the rocks in the channel area...even at low tide you'd never see that."

Not good to hear from the locals.

 

Lets hope the water gradually comes in rather than all at once.

 

For those who don't know, water receding unusually far/fast is a sign of an impending Tsunami

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Hugh Mungus
Quote
10 minutes ago
 
 

Susan Eng, a Tauranga retiree, has a view of the Waikareao Estuary from her home off Edgecumbe Rd.

She said there was "definitely disturbance" to the estuary.

"I noticed the tide started coming in a lot quicker than it normally would. There's rippley stripes on the estuary [but] there's only a little bit of breeze. It definitely looks different."

She said the water had looked "glassy" earlier.

So the water appears to be coming in quickly, but not as a destructive wave yet. Also, experts have said the quake was a "slip" rather than a "thrust". This is good news. The destructive Tsunami's in Japan and Indonesia/Sri Lanka were all "thrust" type earthquakes. Still not out of the woods yet though

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Hugh Mungus
Quote
a few seconds ago
Unusual tidal activity can be seen in Whangārei, according to National MP Shane Reti, who is in the high suburb of Raumanga.
 
"We are now seeing sandbanks [exposed when they shouldn't be] and some brown dirty water coming in."
 
Reti said cars were lining the streets in Raumanga, so people were doing the right thing and evacuating to higher ground.

- Reporting by Denise Piper 

:(

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Hugh Mungus
Quote
a minute ago
 
 

GNS Science seismologist John Ristau said it appeared from tide guages that a tsunami might be arriving in New Zealand now.

 

“It's still a little bit early to safe to say for certain, but it looks like on a couple of tide gauges that something's starting to come in on East Cape and North Cape.

 

“The modelling shows that there's potential land threat.

 

“So we classify that as one meter and above for much of the north coast of the North Island, and then beach and marine threat, which is between 30cm and one metre for most of the rest of the music of New Zealand, with the exception of the east coast of the South Island.

 

“But it remains to be seen how big the tsunamis actually going to be.”

 

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susieice
Posted (edited)

I just got home and saw this. Hoping it won't be bad and all will be alright. This article from 30 minutes ago is saying the first wave may not be the largest and the waves could continue to come in for several hours. There were gridlocks in some areas, but it seems people are heeding the warnings and moving to higher ground. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56285659

It said "strong and unusual currents and unpredictable surges" were expected and the first wave may not be the largest. "Tsunami activity will continue for several hours and the threat is real until this warning is cancelled," the agency said.

 
Edited by susieice
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Hugh Mungus
Quote
3 minutes ago
 
 

The first photos of the surges arriving in New Zealand have been posted online.

 

Gina Pewhairangi took this photo of surges arriving in Tokomaru Bay on the East Cape following a series of earthquakes.

20210304230531_549525.jpeg

Photos coming in now of big waves

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Hugh Mungus

 

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Hugh Mungus
3 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Looking at the tidal gauges it shows about 200mm of surge?

https://niwa.co.nz/our-science/coasts/tools-and-resources/sea-levels/sumner-head

 

 

Just clicked your link.

That's the data from Sumner Head, halfway down the South Island. The most affected areas are in the far north and far east. But yes, Sumner is in a "Marine Risk" situation. One of the only places on the east coast of the South Island to be at risk

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Hugh Mungus
Posted (edited)

https://niwa.co.nz/our-science/coasts/tools-and-resources/sea-levels/raglan

 

This one is the furtherest north i could find, but it's on the west coast instead of the east. Massive difference in readings though

 

EDIT: surely these readings are wrong. They show a sea level 4m above expected, and it's not in the "Tsunami Risk" zone

Edited by Hugh Mungus
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Hugh Mungus
Quote
a few seconds ago
 
 

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre has provided the latest information on tsunami observations:

 

KINGSTON NORFOLK IS 29.1S 168.0E 2239 0.56M/ 1.8FT 10

GREAT BARRIER IS NZ 36.2S 175.5E 2248 0.30M/ 1.0FT 06

APIA UPOLU WS 13.8S 171.8W 2241 0.03M/ 0.1FT 12

NORTH CAPE NZ 34.4S 173.0E 2150 0.15M/ 0.5FT 32

EAST CAPE NZ 37.6S 178.2E 2153 0.16M/ 0.5FT 14

NUKUALOFA TO 21.1S 175.2W 2129 0.05M/ 0.2FT 30

Tsunami heights for those that have hit so far. Worst being .5m on Norfolk Island. 

Samoa and American Samoa have both cancelled their Tsunami watch warnings.

No one was on the Kermadec Islands (due to covid preventing researchers since March last year) but it is likely a significant Tsunami hit there.

 

Interestingly, the civil defense in NZ are still worried about a "bigger" wave coming. It is likely that no one will be allowed back to coastal areas for many hours to come.

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Hugh Mungus
3 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

An earthquake site, there might be some more big aftershocks ?

https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=2&typ=world#2

 

Yeah, another 6 hit 20mins ago in the same area. It's almost non stop with minor aftershocks between NZ and the Kermadec's 

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L.A.T.1961

Interesting that the 8.1 came after a 7.4. and 7.3.

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Buzz_Light_Year

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php

Site has a map that you can zoom in on and click the individual earthquake epicenters.

Image shows the swarm in the Tonga area

 

Tonga.jpg

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Hugh Mungus
21 minutes ago, Hugh Mungus said:

Yeah, another 6 hit 20mins ago in the same area. It's almost non stop with minor aftershocks between NZ and the Kermadec's 

Magnitudemb 6.2RegionKERMADEC ISLANDS REGIONDate time2021-03-04 23:12:58.5 UTCLocation28.55 S ; 176.64 WDepth2 kmDistances837 km S of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga / pop: 22,400 / local time: 12:12:58.5 2021-03-05
821 km S of ‘Ohonua, Tonga / pop: 1,200 / local time: 12:12:58.5 2021-03-05

 

Has been upgraded to 6.2 at only 2km's deep.

Makes you wonder if this one will have a similar warning. A 6.2 is 4 x less powerful than an 8.0, but 2km's deep is very shallow. The 8 magnitude quake was 20kms deep
 

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L.A.T.1961
45 minutes ago, Hugh Mungus said:

https://niwa.co.nz/our-science/coasts/tools-and-resources/sea-levels/raglan

 

EDIT: surely these readings are wrong. They show a sea level 4m above expected, and it's not in the "Tsunami Risk" zone

The measurement has been the same for a week so whatever it is showing it's not tsunami related.

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Hugh Mungus

News just in. Everyone can return home. Worst of it has passed. There is still warnings in place to avoid beaches and dont go in the water

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susieice

The BBC is saying the warnings have been cancelled. It pretty much says what Hugh posted above.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56285659

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susieice
3 hours ago, Hugh Mungus said:

Yeah, another 6 hit 20mins ago in the same area. It's almost non stop with minor aftershocks between NZ and the Kermadec's 

The USGS is still only reporting the first three. Aftershocks are expected to continue but they should diminish over time.

https://www.usgs.gov/news/kermadec-and-new-zealand-earthquakes

Here's NOAA's tsunami report.

https://www.tsunami.gov/

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Raptor Witness

3 massive earthquakes near New Zealand trigger tsunami warnings, send residents to higher groundNEW YORK DAILY NEWS 3-4-2021

The last time three earthquakes stronger than magnitude 7.0 struck a single region in one day was in February 2013 near the Solomon Islands, according to U.S. Geologic Survey data. The quakes and ensuing tsunami killed at least nine people on the islands.

The prior occurrence was in March 2011 near Japan, when a 9.1 quake, several foreshocks and aftershocks, and a tsunami killed an estimated 20,000 people and triggered the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

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