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What are the odds that UFOs are alien ?

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naughtynick

when sophisticated observation equipment and highly trained individuals identify a flying object and they cannot conclude what it is surely the issue is why cannot what it is be identified. When a concrete observation cannot be interpreted by our best equipment and personnel it is reasonable to argue that it could be from an unknown source and location other than earth. So the question really is

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XenoFish

Probably have better luck determine if it's Aliens or Not by flipping a coin.

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naughtynick

what is the probability of our best equipment and best personnel not being able to identify something that was manufactured and operated from earth. My guess is that the probability is very low. Hence the probability that the concrete observation is of something not manufactured or operated from earth would be relatively high.

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XenoFish

Best doesn't mean perfect.

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naughtynick

Agree and if best was perfect the probability of the observed object coming from an extraterrestrial location would be 100%

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Golden Duck
10 minutes ago, naughtynick said:

Agree and if best was perfect the probability of the observed object coming from an extraterrestrial location would be 100%

You last three posts have lacked anything specific.  What is the best equipment actually meant to interpret?

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OpenMindedSceptic

For decades now, UFO's have been ridiculed or passed off as clouds, planets, misinterpretation within the viewers eyes, balloons... 

Only now, the USA has admitted that there is something there. That they're seeing these things too. They don't know what they are but they've tracked them and seen them.

Something is there. Something they cannot or don't want to explain. But, given the capabilities, it is suggesting other worldly.

Alien.

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Rlyeh
53 minutes ago, naughtynick said:

When a concrete observation cannot be interpreted by our best equipment and personnel it is reasonable to argue that it could be from an unknown source and location other than earth.

Which concrete observation of UFOs have been analysed with our best equipment?

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naughtynick
19 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

You last three posts have lacked anything specific.  What is the best equipment actually meant to interpret?

Best is in the context of air force equipment and personnel. 

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naughtynick
7 minutes ago, Rlyeh said:

Which concrete observation of UFOs have been analysed with our best equipment?

I am referring mainly to the recent conclusions of the military in respect of UFOs observed by US aircraft equipment and pilots.

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Manwon Lender
11 minutes ago, OpenMindedSceptic said:

For decades now, UFO's have been ridiculed or passed off as clouds, planets, misinterpretation within the viewers eyes, balloons... 

Only now, the USA has admitted that there is something there. That they're seeing these things too. They don't know what they are but they've tracked them and seen them.

Something is there. Something they cannot or don't want to explain. But, given the capabilities, it is suggesting other worldly.

Alien.

Did you ever think that these craft that many consider other worldly could be Archeologists from our future just studying the past?

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Manwon Lender
1 hour ago, XenoFish said:

Probably have better luck determine if it's Aliens or Not by flipping a coin.

I think they are Archeologists from our future!:yes:

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Manwon Lender
1 hour ago, Jaded1 said:

As a mathematician myself, this is why I absolutely loathe statistics. There's so much conjecture and so many "grey" areas (pardon the pun!). Statisticians can't even agree on whether to use classical statistics or Bayesian statistics to get the best results most of the time!

We need more of you guys, to help solve the current holes in our knowledge of Astrophysics. We view ourselves as advanced when we have only started walk. 

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Jaded1
5 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

We need more of you guys, to help solve the current holes in our knowledge of Astrophysics. We view ourselves as advanced when we have only started walk. 

I'm not quite in that league!!! :lol:. I just took it at university, almost 30 years ago, and haven't done anything much with the knowledge since (although my job requires a decent knowledge of basic maths). I could never get on with statistics though as, even with a basic knowledge, you can twist and turn results to the shape you want. Dealing in probabilities, based on nothing but mere conjecture is more like pseudoscience to me.

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Vox

Phenomenal result.

 

Now, if it’s not aliens, and it’s not western tech, and there is little evidence to suggest that it’s our non-western contemporaries…

 

what is it?

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Rlyeh
13 minutes ago, naughtynick said:

I am referring mainly to the recent conclusions of the military in respect of UFOs observed by US aircraft equipment and pilots.

I guessed that.  So when did they get concrete observation and when did they use their best equipment?  A blob on an infrared camera doesn't strike me as living up to this.

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Golden Duck
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, naughtynick said:

I am referring mainly to the recent conclusions of the military in respect of UFOs observed by US aircraft equipment and pilots.

Their conclusion is that the Aerial Phenomena is Unexplained. It kind of says it on the tin.

Edited by Golden Duck
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Manwon Lender
11 minutes ago, Jaded1 said:

I'm not quite in that league!!! :lol:. I just took it at university, almost 30 years ago, and haven't done anything much with the knowledge since (although my job requires a decent knowledge of basic maths). I could never get on with statistics though as, even with a basic knowledge, you can twist and turn results to the shape you want. Dealing in probabilities, based on nothing but mere conjecture is more like pseudoscience to me.

I agree with you completely about probabilities, but mathematics is the language of the Universe. 

Take care.

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Manwon Lender
13 minutes ago, Vox said:

Phenomenal result.

 

Now, if it’s not aliens, and it’s not western tech, and there is little evidence to suggest that it’s our non-western contemporaries…

 

what is it?

Ancient Astronauts, us.

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Dejarma
47 minutes ago, OpenMindedSceptic said:

They don't know what they are but they've tracked them and seen them.

Allegedly

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wgallo

You missed the strong evidence that you are not taking in consideration. Real proof that one thousand years ago they are already here. 

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Dejarma
7 minutes ago, wgallo said:

You missed the strong evidence that you are not taking in consideration. Real proof that one thousand years ago they are already here. 

who are you replying to?

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fred_mc

I don't see that the equation takes into consideration how likely it is that there is unknown physics that makes it possible to travel several light years within reasonable time periods.

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