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WVK

Fauci fears a COVID variant worse than Delta could be coming

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Manwon Lender
5 minutes ago, WVK said:

If America's current COVID-19 surge continues unabated into the fall and winter, the country will likely face an even more deadly strain of the virus that could evade the current coronavirus vaccines, NIAID director Anthony Fauci told McClatchy Wednesday.

https://www.axios.com/fauci-delta-variant-covid-d1c0d550-6624-417d-bde6-33c8f56deaba.html

Thanks very much for sharing this, and I don't think most people understand this threat. I worked in the Biological Warfare field in the US Military and as a Givernment Contractor. Dr. Faucis points are more than valid it's an exact representation of our future. However, what most fail to understand is that these mutations are bring driven by the unvaccinated. You see the Virus is weakened when it affects a vaccinated person, because the vaccine immediately starts to kill it once it enters the body so there is two fold effect that occurs. While the Virus is fighting for its life in a vaccinated host, the additional energy it would require to mutate isn't present. 

Mutations of this Virus only occur in unvaccinated people, first they provide the Virus with a host that can be easily infected. Once infected the Virus has the time and additional energy to replicate itself repeatedly and it is during this replication process that the mutations occur. So what many don't realize is that those who refuse to be vaccinated are effecting everyone not just themselves. The main risk that Dr. Fauci is talking about is that continued mutations could allow this Virus to mutate to a point where our current vaccines are no longer effective and this is currently the major fear throughout the healthcare community.

Great thread thanks for sharing.

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WVK
1 hour ago, Manwon Lender said:

Thanks very much for sharing this, and I don't think most people understand this threat. I worked in the Biological Warfare field in the US Military and as a Givernment Contractor. Dr. Faucis points are more than valid it's an exact representation of our future. However, what most fail to understand is that these mutations are bring driven by the unvaccinated. You see the Virus is weakened when it affects a vaccinated person, because the vaccine immediately starts to kill it once it enters the body so there is two fold effect that occurs. While the Virus is fighting for its life in a vaccinated host, the additional energy it would require to mutate isn't present. 

Mutations of this Virus only occur in unvaccinated people, first they provide the Virus with a host that can be easily infected. Once infected the Virus has the time and additional energy to replicate itself repeatedly and it is during this replication process that the mutations occur. So what many don't realize is that those who refuse to be vaccinated are effecting everyone not just themselves. The main risk that Dr. Fauci is talking about is that continued mutations could allow this Virus to mutate to a point where our current vaccines are no longer effective and this is currently the major fear throughout the healthcare community.

Great thread thanks for sharing.

Should we worry that advanced mutations  could be brought in over our open southern border?

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Manwon Lender
1 hour ago, WVK said:

Should we worry that advanced mutations  could be brought in over our open southern border?

In my opinion mutations can come from anywhere, the point is our biggest concern in from those who are not vaccinated. What funny is the fact that lower income countries have the best vaccination records, and higher income Nations have the worst record. So I don't know if ghost is the right way to look at this. 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-most-anti-vaxxer-country-in-the-world-2019-06-19

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Nnicolette

Odd... The only people I know of getting sick recently are all vaccinated. Yep it must be us unvaccinated people who reached immunity on our own who are spreading superbugs by not being sick or i mean funding the ever expanding pharmaceutical companies.

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Tatetopa
5 hours ago, WVK said:

Should we worry that advanced mutations  could be brought in over our open southern border?

Sure, but proportionally.  There are  at least 150 million people already here who can catch or breed  a new variant.    Who are you more likely to come in contact with in your daily life?

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psyche101
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Nnicolette said:

Odd... The only people I know of getting sick recently are all vaccinated. Yep it must be us unvaccinated people who reached immunity on our own who are spreading superbugs by not being sick or i mean funding the ever expanding pharmaceutical companies.

Your personal experience is wrong .

There's a current thread on those very numbers. Unvaccinated people are by far the majority in hospitals. Like 90%.

I don't agree with making a medical issue a personal crusade.

Edited by psyche101
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and then
47 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Sure, but proportionally.  There are  at least 150 million people already here who can catch or breed  a new variant.    Who are you more likely to come in contact with in your daily life?

Considering the fact that these migrants, numbering in the hundred-thousand plus, per month range, aren't being tested or medically processed in any way AND they're being bussed, flown and otherwise delivered to distant locales all over America WITHOUT giving any notice to those state or local governments... I'd say your argument based on statistics isn't as as justifiable as you may believe it to be.  Those "cage camps" are Petrie dishes where migrants have been reported to be obviously ill and still being kept with large groups.  

Until DC begins to take the border situation seriously then no one has ANY RIGHT to be mouthing off about the unvaccinated being the main cause of Delta or any other variant.  Especially when fully vaxxed people are contracting and spreading Delta.  Fauci is a bad joke at this point.  He fears a "worse variant" than Delta?  Based on data or just how he feels today?   Downstream iterations of almost all viruses have two things in common, with relatively rare exceptions.  They become more transmissible and less deadly.  Delta is a perfect example of both.  Our media are pushing the mantra 24/7 that it's "highly contagious".  That is true.  I don't see as many mentions of the fact that it's rate of mortality has fallen to little more than that of seasonal influenza.  Would you agree that leaving that fact out of the picture tends to create a narrative that isn't true?

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and then
13 minutes ago, psyche101 said:

Your personal experience is wrong .

There's a current thread on those very numbers. Unvaccinated people are by far the majority in hospitals. Like 90%.

I don't agree with making a medical issue a personal crusade.

I haven't seen this number reported but for the sake of argument I'll accept it as true.  How many of those Delta-patients are dying?  The last numbers I saw had Delta ending in death for far fewer than the original strain which was less than 2% and for under 70-years-of-age it was well below 1%.  If the ones who die are friends or family then of course, that's a tragedy.  Life is FULL of tragedies, can we agree on that? 

I lost a close friend who happened to also be my brother-in-law, back in February of 2018.  He had the flu.  He was stubborn and refused to go to the hospital.  Thousands of stories just like that happen every year.  Well... except for 2020.  A miracle occurred where seasonal influenza accounted for nearly ZERO % of cases or fatalities.  Of course, the tests didn't distinguish between flu and Covid and hospitals were being paid thousands of extra dollars for every reported Covid case.  I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions on that.

Delta is far more transmissible but no more fatal than seasonal influenza.  That's true.  When that fact is accepted, it's not very encouraging for those who are demanding mandatory vaccines and new lockdowns.  Fauci has changed his story so often that he isn't considered to be a serious professional any longer by millions of Americans.  Personally, I think he fears being faced with the facts in a public venue more than he fears Covid.  He's been owned by Rand Paul so often that he probably has nightmares about the Gentleman from Kentucky...

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Tatetopa
8 minutes ago, and then said:

Considering the fact that these migrants, numbering in the hundred-thousand plus, per month range, aren't being tested or medically processed in any way AND they're being bussed, flown and otherwise delivered to distant locales all over America WITHOUT giving any notice to those state or local governments... I'd say your argument based on statistics isn't as as justifiable as you may believe it to be.  Those "cage camps" are Petrie dishes where migrants have been reported to be obviously ill and still being kept with large groups.  

Until DC begins to take the border situation seriously then no one has ANY RIGHT to be mouthing off about the unvaccinated being the main cause of Delta or any other variant.  Especially when fully vaxxed people are contracting and spreading Delta.  Fauci is a bad joke at this point.  He fears a "worse variant" than Delta?  Based on data or just how he feels today?   Downstream iterations of almost all viruses have two things in common, with relatively rare exceptions.  They become more transmissible and less deadly.  Delta is a perfect example of both.  Our media are pushing the mantra 24/7 that it's "highly contagious".  That is true.  I don't see as many mentions of the fact that it's rate of mortality has fallen to little more than that of seasonal influenza.  Would you agree that leaving that fact out of the picture tends to create a narrative that isn't true?

I saw the sensitivity on the other thread, I didn't comment there.  I still say proportionately. If vaccinated people can get and spread covid delta variant, my statement still holds true. there are many more than 150 million US citizens to spread it. 

It is a matter of personal networks   How many of the people that you interact with  in your daily life are illegal immigrants?  For me and many other people the answer is none.  If I interact with thirty people in the course of my day, the odds are highest that not one of them has been close to the border.  That is all there is to it and the logic as I see it.  There are just bigger possibilities to worry about.  Bringing illegal immigrants into this issue is  too much complication,  Elimination of all illegal immigration wouldn't stop it. Sometimes emotion is less helpful for survival than thought and logic.

That being said, it is not an impossible  threat, just a small one by proportion.   Also, that being said, thought and logic tell me not to trust any US citizen to make an effort to protect me from infection. That is my own accepted responsibility.  I do what I think best.  I treat everybody that I am not sure of as an equal threat. Others can do as they choose.

I do like people, but I let them decide what level of protection they want or need.    Too many chemical fumes and too many bouts of pneumonia during my work life tell me that without taking a risky vaccine, washing my hands, wearing a mask, and limiting contact, I would be a goner. I base my actions and my risk accordingly.  I dismiss the hassle I sometimes still get for wearing a mask, I am not going to increase my risk to please some yahoo I see in Home Depot that can't keep his own mouth shut.. 

 

 

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toast
7 hours ago, WVK said:

Should we worry that advanced mutations  could be brought in over our open southern border?

No but we should worry incompetent politicians, antivaxxer, mask refuser, party people, vacationeers and all the other morons who think the virus is something harmless.

The virus (and crew) is a fascinating smart little thing, it use the high percentage of stupidity within mankind, its potential hosts. Means, the evolution is always smarter than its products. If all people on this planet had followed the precautionary measures from the begining on in 2020, we would not be in the mess we are still in.

SARS-CoV-2® : the most comprehensive and accurate IQ test ever conducted on this planet.

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psyche101
1 hour ago, and then said:

I haven't seen this number reported but for the sake of argument I'll accept it as true. 

It's actually higher than I remember. We are seeing the same thing here.

Quote

How many of those Delta-patients are dying?  The last numbers I saw had Delta ending in death for far fewer than the original strain which was less than 2% and for under 70-years-of-age it was well below 1%.  If the ones who die are friends or family then of course, that's a tragedy. 

The numbers you saw would be made up..it was officially recognised at the end of May. There hadn't been enough time yet to make any such statistic. What we do know is when delta hit Africa, covid vases spiked by 80%. Which is a very clear warning. All we do know for sure is that it is more aggressive.

Quote

Life is FULL of tragedies, can we agree on that? 

Indeed, so why sow seeds of discontent and they pray for rain? 

Quote

I lost a close friend who happened to also be my brother-in-law, back in February of 2018.  He had the flu.  He was stubborn and refused to go to the hospital.  Thousands of stories just like that happen every year.  Well... except for 2020.  A miracle occurred where seasonal influenza accounted for nearly ZERO % of cases or fatalities.  Of course, the tests didn't distinguish between flu and Covid and hospitals were being paid thousands of extra dollars for every reported Covid case.  I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions on that.

I've heard there are no figures before. I found them pretty quickly though. 

I would expect that. Isn't it obvious? People don't normally wear masks, ash their hands regularly and use sanitizer in public. Covid is extremely transmissible. Much money ch more do than the flu.

The result is a no brainer. What else would you actually expect? That covid would have zero impact on the regular flu? Countries list hundreds of thousands of deaths to covid. There is little doubt that all those who would otherwise perish due to flu are pretty much guaranteed to die from Covid. 

Quote

Delta is far more transmissible but no more fatal than seasonal influenza.  That's true.  When that fact is accepted, it's not very encouraging for those who are demanding mandatory vaccines and new lockdowns. 

You're making stuff up now. Your trying to tell me you already have solid delta figures when we haven't even had it long enough to attain those. 

Quote

Fauci has changed his story so often that he isn't considered to be a serious professional any longer by millions of Americans.  Personally, I think he fears being faced with the facts in a public venue more than he fears Covid.  He's been owned by Rand Paul so often that he probably has nightmares about the Gentleman from Kentucky...

Do those Americans honestly think they are more qualified? Because I really doubt that. I can't comment much further as I don't follow his advice. I follow Paul Kelly's advice. It sounds more like people are expecting more than is fair from a rapidly changing difficult to deal with virus. Blaming Fauci won't help. 

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Manwon Lender
1 hour ago, and then said:

Considering the fact that these migrants, numbering in the hundred-thousand plus, per month range, aren't being tested or medically processed in any way AND they're being bussed, flown and otherwise delivered to distant locales all over America WITHOUT giving any notice to those state or local governments... I'd say your argument based on statistics isn't as as justifiable as you may believe it to be.  Those "cage camps" are Petrie dishes where migrants have been reported to be obviously ill and still being kept with large groups.  

Until DC begins to take the border situation seriously then no one has ANY RIGHT to be mouthing off about the unvaccinated being the main cause of Delta or any other variant.  Especially when fully vaxxed people are contracting and spreading Delta.  Fauci is a bad joke at this point.  He fears a "worse variant" than Delta?  Based on data or just how he feels today?   Downstream iterations of almost all viruses have two things in common, with relatively rare exceptions.  They become more transmissible and less deadly.  Delta is a perfect example of both.  Our media are pushing the mantra 24/7 that it's "highly contagious".  That is true.  I don't see as many mentions of the fact that it's rate of mortality has fallen to little more than that of seasonal influenza.  Would you agree that leaving that fact out of the picture tends to create a narrative that isn't true?

Like he said, who are you most likely to come in contact with?

Well, its unlikely that it is a immigrant and unlike you those immigrants that are shipped all over the place are tested for COVID and they are vaccinated. If your worried about mutations of this Virus you must understand that  since your unvaccinated you can easily produce a Mutation if you become infected

Your comparison of the Flu verse COVID 19 is totally inaccurate I have no idea where your information comes. However, I would suggest finding a more accurate source. Further more you say the Virus is becoming less deadly, that's also a false narrative, and here is why. The more transmissible this Virus becomes the more people are infected because they are not Vaccinated, the Vaccinated account for 80% plus of all COVID deaths and they are also further causing mutation that may effect everyone. 

So please continue to push your false information and political version of events your inaction and false beliefs will only hurt you! 

Flu Compae say

United States COVID-19 Statistics

Updated Aug 6, 2021 @ 3:49am EDT
POPULATION  330,756,000

Flu Comparison

Some people say COVID-19 is like the flu, is it?
The 10-year average of about 28,645,000 flu cases per year has a 1.6% hospitalization rate and a 0.13% mortality rate. Unfortunately, CV19 is currently 13 times more deadly at 1.7% with a 20% overall hospitalization rate. If there were 28,645,000 cases...
FLU HOSPITALIZATIONS
458,320
TOTAL
CV19 HOSPITALIZATIONS
5,729,000
TOTAL
FLU DEATHS
37,239
TOTAL
CV19 DEATHS
486,965
TOTAL

United States COVID-19 Statistics: 35,440,488 Cases / 615,320 Deaths / 363,825,123 Tests / Avg cases/day 68,121 declined 25.1% from 14 days ago Avg deaths/day 2,034 declined 17.22% from 14 days ago (Updated Aug 6, 2021 @ 3:49am) (covidusa.net)

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Setton
15 hours ago, and then said:

The last numbers I saw had Delta ending in death for far fewer than the original strain

Then your numbers are wrong or your flat out lying. ALL the data suggests the Delta variant is both more infectious and causes more severe disease that the original virus or the alpha variant.

Looking at the data for India, you can see that the ratio of cases to deaths is about 20% higher in 2021 than in 2020. And that's despite the impact of vaccination. The Delta variant was identified in India in December 2020.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

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XenoFish

Get back to me when this thing becomes a rage virus and people start eating each others face. I'm done with all this fear p orn. 

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and then
On 8/5/2021 at 10:48 PM, Nnicolette said:

Odd... The only people I know of getting sick recently are all vaccinated. Yep it must be us unvaccinated people who reached immunity on our own who are spreading superbugs by not being sick or i mean funding the ever expanding pharmaceutical companies.

Just came across this out of Israel -

 

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Doug1066
On 8/6/2021 at 2:31 AM, Tatetopa said:

How many of the people that you interact with  in your daily life are illegal immigrants?

Studies say that the typical US citizen meets about 500 people per month whose name he either knows, or is introduced to by name.  If 40% of those contacts contract covid, that's another 200 cases.

We can't bully this thing into submission and blaming our problems on someone else (immigrants, China, etc.) only distracts us from the job of getting everyone protected.  And that means world wide as we are more likely to get a new variant from the unvaccinated part of the world than we are from here.  We need to continue vaccine production at capacity and send the surplus to other countries.

As a concession to the "border bandits," why not set up vaccination stations at border crossings (legal and illegal ones)?  Vaccinate everyone who crosses.  Then the border won't be an issue.

Doug

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Doug1066
8 hours ago, and then said:

Just came across this out of Israel -

 

Here's a research article on that topic:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1198743X21003670

Here's another:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13584-021-00441-5

I tried to find a research paper that confirmed your post, but I couldn't.  I'd take that with a large grain of salt - about the size of those cattle salt blocks they sell at Atwoods.

Doug

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Doug1066

I made use of my covid isolation last winter by developing a computer program to solve the slopover problem in forest inventory.  It is reaching publication.  A few minor changes to make on Monday, then as soon as our internal review is done, I'll submit it for publication.

Turns out there's a market for this.  The USFS has 193 forests with about 600 districts that do this kind of cruising.  Add in 30 states with about 150 districts that do it and you have a market of 750 people.  Then there are private consultants.  I could also produce a metric version of the program for use in the rest of the world and companion programs that make the same corrections for rectangular plots and mirage plots.  A stand-table program could bring all the different versions together under one roof.  Selling the program in pre-programmed calculators at $315 would produce a profit of about $250.  Production rate is three pre-programmed machines per day per person.  I have myself and two other people to work on it.

It will still take two or three years to write all the variant programs, but then we will likely have another covid shutdown this fall and if that doesn't happen, I will have shoulder surgery and be off work for about three months anyway.  Opportunity everywhere!  Covid doesn't have to be a complete disaster.  It might even make some millionaires.

Doug

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Tatetopa
12 minutes ago, Doug1066 said:

It might even make some millionaires.

Jeff Bezos junior? Don't take that as an insult please.

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Doug1066
8 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Jeff Bezos junior? Don't take that as an insult please.

Jeff Bezos has nothing to worry about from me.  It won't even be close.  I probably won't become a millionaire from this, but it could make for a much nicer retirement.

Doug

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Hammerclaw
On 8/5/2021 at 11:48 PM, Nnicolette said:

Odd... The only people I know of getting sick recently are all vaccinated. Yep it must be us unvaccinated people who reached immunity on our own who are spreading superbugs by not being sick or i mean funding the ever expanding pharmaceutical companies.

The fact that breakthrough infections are rare and so many adults are unvaccinated, the odds the unvaccinated are the ones, overwhelmingly spreading the virus. Of that small number of breakthrough infected, only .004 percent require hospitalization, according to the CDC.

Data shows how rare severe breakthrough Covid infections are (nbcnews.com)

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and then
On 8/6/2021 at 3:03 AM, psyche101 said:

You're making stuff up now.

I have no need to do that.  I've seen a couple of sources that confirm a .08 % fatality rate to go along with a far higher level of contagiousness.  I'm sure that we both could find sources that confirm our beliefs but when the claims line up with the normal behavior of viruses, I find less reason to doubt the claims.  The sad part about Delta is that it is so successful in finding new hosts that the sheer numbers who will contract this variant will still account for a higher death toll though without an increased death RATE.  

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jeceris

May be an image of text that says "said licking ".." rats was his right.'"

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