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Raptor Witness

Hurricane Ida - Another Katrina in the Making?

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

Hurricane Ida - Track - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Source

As a fledgling forecaster back in 2005, I traveled to and experienced the aftermath of hurricane Katrina, first hand. I moved to the Mississippi Gulf Coast, not long afterwards. Near Waveland, Mississippi I observed 20+ storm surge for the first time in my life, and saw neighborhoods wiped clean, except for the slabs and the washing machines. It was surreal ...

Hurricane Ida - Wind field expansion - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Note the explosion in size of the tropical storm wind field.

Edited by Raptor Witness
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Raptor Witness

This is a live link to the Gulf of Mexico Infrared Imagery ....

GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif

Live Link

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

According to Levi Cowan:nw: the best young PHD forecaster I know for tropical systems, the key concern for Ida is the favorable upper level environment, coupled with the Gulf Stream Loop Current, which sits directly in the path of Mt. Ida.  This is a big problem for the Gulf Coast, because this is going to provide a substantial boost to the storm, just before she moves inland. I don't think Ida will have the highly advantageous upper level venting profile that Katrina did, but at the surface, we have perfection ...

At the 12 minute Mark is Levi's discussion.

51406155836_fc26245918_o.jpg

Source

Edited by Raptor Witness

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Raptor Witness
Quote

The etymology of Ida has an interesting ancient religious context, related to “Mountain Mother.”

It reminds me of an oldie but goodie …. 

Ida Etymology - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Ida

Source

 

 

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L.A.T.1961

Camille looked similar from 69.

 

4d4e70154df85a3ace89d36286647851--hurricane-camille-weather-news.jpg

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Doug1066
2 hours ago, Raptor Witness said:

 

AND:  Mt. Ida is a town in Arkansas and a shortleaf pine tree ring chronology.

The name Ida in this case came from a railroad magnate's daughter.  Idabel in Oklahoma is the combined names of his two daughters, Ida and Belle.  His wife's nickname was Queen; hence, DeQueen, Arkansas.  Keeoing it all in the family.

Doug

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Raptor Witness
22 minutes ago, Doug1066 said:

AND:  Mt. Ida is a town in Arkansas and a shortleaf pine tree ring chronology.

The name Ida in this case came from a railroad magnate's daughter.  Idabel in Oklahoma is the combined names of his two daughters, Ida and Belle.  His wife's nickname was Queen; hence, DeQueen, Arkansas.  Keeoing it all in the family.

Doug

I was referring to the ancient religious context, which is why I linked that reference.  The general consensus seems to refer to "Mountain Mother." Generally, you also see "mountain" with "ida" in the etymological references.

When I researched this hurricane name in prior years, I came up with "Mountain Mother," also.

 

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Raptor Witness

Ida appears to be taking a breather, after passing over Cuba's Isle of Youth, which we've seen in prior years, also.

My concern right now is for New Orleans, which cannot handle a Cat 5 to their levee system. It will go under, again, and people will drown, again.

They need to be moving these people out of harms way, now, and that includes poor people who cannot move themselves. If the same mistake is made again, what will that tell U.S. about ourselves, as a first world nation?

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Nosy.Matters
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Raptor Witness said:

 

Nothing like a great name.

Especially after henri / ornery.

 

Next , Julian

and then

a favorite: Kate

Edited by Nosy.Matters
spelling adjustment.
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and then
2 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Camille looked similar from 69

I was 8-years-old and 250 miles away when Camille came ashore and I lived in Jackson Mississippi in 2005 (45)  when Katrina rolled over New Orleans and paid us a visit up there and STILL, I can tell you, Camille was a FAR worse storm. It was a very small, compact storm but it is still the standard by which all the rest are judged along the Gulf Coast.  Not to put too fine a point on it but Katrina only killed as many as it did because corrupt politicians in the Parishes around N.O. used the billions that they received from Uncle Sugar to divert to uh... "other contingencies" :angry:  To this day, despite huge amounts of evidence of what they did, not one indictment for it.  I hope, for the sake of those in the path this time, they spent the money on the levies and pumps :( 

I feel badly for them, I certainly don't want a visit from a Cat 4 but the fact that they think it will suddenly go from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 as it reaches the coast is very unusual.  The water in the shallows at the coast must be much cooler than normal.

 

 

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Raptor Witness

Hurricane Ida is currently undergoing rapid intensification. She is now projected to reach Category 4 status as she arrives near New Orleans in two days, as the most recent projections from the National Hurricane Center, show:

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 22.1N  83.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 23.5N  84.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 25.3N  86.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 27.1N  89.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 28.6N  90.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 30.0N  91.3W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/1800Z 31.5N  91.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/1800Z 34.4N  89.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/1800Z 36.0N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

The big question, now is, can the New Orleans levee system handle a Category 5 super surge, coming at the perfect angle to push water into the city, and at high tide? The answer is an emphatic, "no."  They did not build the levee system to withstand a Category 5 storm surge, after Katrina, and this means that this could potentially be another multibillion dollar catastrophe to add to the Federal balance sheet, when it can least afford it. Unless, you want to add another half a trillion to the infrastructure bill.

FORTIFIED BUT STILL IN PERIL, NEW ORLEANS BRACES FOR ITS FUTURE - NY Times FEB. 24, 2018

In the years after Hurricane Katrina, over 350 miles of
levees, flood walls, gates and pumps came to encircle
greater New Orleans. Experts say that is not enough.

Note: There are some great overview photos on this reference ...

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and then
1 hour ago, Raptor Witness said:

If the same mistake is made again, what will that tell U.S. about ourselves, as a first world nation?

Oh, I wouldn't worry overly about that.  Our media will ignore most of it unless there's some BOM angle they can attach to it.  Remember the "fiery but mostly peaceful" riots?  

I'm more concerned with whether the current administration in N.O. will take care of their responsibilities this time rather than forgetting their people as a means to harm the guy in the WH.  Oh, wait, it's a Biden, not a Bush.  Nawlins folks should be fine...

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Michelle
24 minutes ago, and then said:

I'm more concerned with whether the current administration in N.O. will take care of their responsibilities this time rather than forgetting their people as a means to harm the guy in the WH.  Oh, wait, it's a Biden, not a Bush.  Nawlins folks should be fine...

If I didn't have transportation I would grab what I needed and start walking now. To heck with waiting on someone to help get me out of harms way. I'm sure the buses are running. They'll get you a good start.

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and then
2 hours ago, Michelle said:

If I didn't have transportation I would grab what I needed and start walking now. To heck with waiting on someone to help get me out of harms way. I'm sure the buses are running. They'll get you a good start.

The only one I had to endure up close and personal, so to speak, was Frederick in 1979.  It was a "strong" Cat 3 and that was the only time in my life before or since when I actually thought I wouldn't live to see another sunrise.  The sound of that kind of wind is like you're hearing a living thing outside the doors and windows.  I can't even imagine a Cat 5.  I'm praying that the folks over there leave while they can.

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)
Quote

Per capita, Louisiana currently has the second most people hospitalized for covid in the US. And the highest number of people in the ICU. And a major hurricane landfall in two and a half days. (plots by@burgwx)

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E90QnEFXMAMgWoB?format=jpg&name=large

Source:

 

 

 

Edited by Raptor Witness

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susieice
Posted (edited)

Hurricane Ida is expected to hit as a CAT 4. The Gulf is exceptionally warm now. I don't see anything about any cooler coastal water that will weaken the storm. I hope everyone in danger is getting out. Now.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-watches-issued-for-new-orleans-parts-of-gulf-coast/1006485

Our local news is saying it will hit sometime Sunday night with 10-15 ft storm surge, 10-20 inches of rain and winds around 140 mph. Earlier tonight they mentioned the hospitals preparing as they have quite a number of Covid cases. Terrible scenario. I'm waiting for the 11 pm news now to hear. It should be on in an hour. It's expected it could bring more rain to us Wednesday into Thursday.

May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'ake Denver Chicago abc querque Omaha HURRICANE IDA 90 Miles SW Of Havana, Cuba Boston New York phia on sO Memphis Dallas Raleigh Atlanta Houston Jacksonville Sun 1:00 PM 140 mph 3 Sat 2:00 PM 120 mph Miami Bahamas'

Edited by susieice
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Raptor Witness

Perfect Angle + Slow Motion Turn at Landfall + Rapid Intensification + Possible Category 5 + Possible 20’ Storm Surge = Deadly Serious For All Land, Air Breathing Animals 

If you do not have wings to fly out - You should be Driving or Riding Out of New Orleans ….

Hurricane Ida - Track Forecast - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov Hurricane Ida - Life Threat - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

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Raptor Witness

New Orleans Mayor says “No Time for Evacuation” 

Meanwhile - This is could be way worse than Katrina, because intensification will be occurring at landfall.

When one of these monsters is intensifying at landfall, which is rare, it’s effect is more like a giant tornado. Don’t think Katrina, think Camille, mayor.

So I think some of our amateur prognosticators here. were correct. @and then 

The good news is, so far the wind field is not of sufficient size to produce a 20’ storm surge, but that’s is a problem, she looks small, when she’s planning to give you a giant middle finger.

Hurricane Ida Wind Field - https://flic.kr/p/2mjKtUc

 

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

Traffic jams as those with vehicles flee Ida, a..k.a. Earth Operation “Mountain Mother.”

While this is a good sign, what I want to see is the lower ninth Ward of New Orleans, to see what the poor folks are doing. Do they even know the “Mountain Mother” is coming?

If anyone has seen any media about the lower 9th evacuation, please give U.S. a view.

Edited by Raptor Witness

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Raptor Witness
Posted (edited)

Compare Katrina to Ida on the same date 8-28-2005/2021, at roughly the same position in the Gulf.

Which would you rather be facing? The monster that had already peaked and that moved to the East of New Orleans, or the monster that likely won’t peak until landfall, tomorrow… and is coming in just to your West?

I think I would pick Katrina over Ida … unless I was Forest Gump ….

Lt. Dan, “Where’s this God of yours?”

Hurricane Ida Moves towards a Major- https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_band.php?sat=G16&lat=25N&lon=86W&band=01&length=30

Hurricane Ida - Source

Hurricane Katrina on August 28, 2005 - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina

Hurricane Katrina - Source

 

Edited by Raptor Witness

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L.A.T.1961
21 hours ago, and then said:

 

I feel badly for them, I certainly don't want a visit from a Cat 4 but the fact that they think it will suddenly go from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 as it reaches the coast is very unusual.  The water in the shallows at the coast must be much cooler than normal.

 

 

Its actually quite normal for hurricanes to quickly diminish when coming into contact with land. The wind has to deal with something sticking up and solid and it creates a braking effect.

Shallow coastal water will be as hot as water further out in the Gulf. 

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and then
20 hours ago, susieice said:

I don't see anything about any cooler coastal water that will weaken the storm. I hope everyone in danger is getting out. Now.

I drove over to see my sister who lives in the Mobile, metro area and I10 was nearly gridlocked headed back east.  

 

2 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Its actually quite normal for hurricanes to quickly diminish when coming into contact with land. The wind has to deal with something sticking up and solid and it creates a braking effect.

Shallow coastal water will be as hot as water further out in the Gulf. 

Perhaps it's the scale of the map I'm looking at but most storms I've lived through, either at a distance or "up close and personal" ;)  have gone down rather more slowly than they seem to predict for this one.  As an example, we moved up to the Jackson, MS area a couple of decades back and were far enough "in-land" to feel like we wouldn't be bothered by hurricane winds any more.  Katrina came through that area as a Cat 1.  That's about 160 miles from the putting your toe in the Gulf.  Anyway, I sincerely hope that those who CAN get out, WILL get out.  The problem so many usually come up against is that work or other commitments force them to stay until everyone is trying to get out at the same time.  My sister once stayed on the road for 8 hours trying to leave Mobile and drive to Jackson.  It's miserable to be in gridlocked traffic in that circumstance.

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Raptor Witness

The National Hurricane Director in his latest advisory says, wind damage in New Orleans will likely be “catastrophic.”

20” of rain + a 15’ storm surge will test the upgraded levees, that’s for sure. It’s not much room for error, is the problem. As I understand it, some of the levees are only 18’ foot above sea level.

It’s easy to find many articles on the Internet, where the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers admits that the levee improvements made following hurricane Katrina, are not designed for a CAT 5 storm, and we are knocking on that door, by a slim margin.

 

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susieice
Posted (edited)

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joc
On 8/27/2021 at 8:49 PM, and then said:

The only one I had to endure up close and personal, so to speak, was Frederick in 1979.  It was a "strong" Cat 3 and that was the only time in my life before or since when I actually thought I wouldn't live to see another sunrise.  The sound of that kind of wind is like you're hearing a living thing outside the doors and windows.  I can't even imagine a Cat 5.  I'm praying that the folks over there leave while they can.

I was also in Frederick...in Gulfport on the CB base...where were  you?

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