Hurricane Ida - Another Katrina in the Making?

[Raptor Witness]

Live on the ground action is always good with Live Storms Media ….!
 

 

[Trelane]

My apologies for breaking into @Raptor Witness's disaster porn thread.

What will you all make if there is (and I don't intend for it to be dismissive) only the usual damage from a Cat 4 hurricane? Not the apocalyptic nightmare that Katrina produced? Will it be because of the Corps of Engineers rebuilt the levees properly? Will the prevention of a humanitarian crisis at the football stadium be credited to FEMA for proper notifications to evacuate? Will the politicians involved be lauded for vigilance and management?

Conversely, what will be the blame or cause if this is a repeat event? Global warming? Saharan Sands affecting hurricane formation and direction? Unique and increased solar activity? Political incompetence? Act of God?

What say you?

[L.A.T.1961]

15 minutes ago, Trelane said:

My apologies for breaking into @Raptor Witness's disaster porn thread.

What will you all make if there is (and I don't intend for it to be dismissive) only the usual damage from a Cat 4 hurricane? Not the apocalyptic nightmare that Katrina produced? Will it be because of the Corps of Engineers rebuilt the levees properly? Will the prevention of a humanitarian crisis at the football stadium be credited to FEMA for proper notifications to evacuate? Will the politicians involved be lauded for vigilance and management?

Conversely, what will be the blame or cause if this is a repeat event? Global warming? Saharan Sands affecting hurricane formation and direction? Unique and increased solar activity? Political incompetence? Act of God?

What say you?

Probably a topic for latter when impact can be assessed. 

I am here to wonder at what mother nature can create, not politicise it. 

Storm could now be a 5 

[Tatetopa]

My Aunt and Uncle are  both in their 80's and were too old to want to ride out another one after Katrina.   They moved over to Houston from New Orleans a decade ago. I have not talked to my cousin in Houston  yet, but I bet  his folks are glad to be there now.

 

 

[Raptor Witness]

40 minutes ago, Trelane said:

What say you?

Since this is my “disaster porn” thread, I get to ask the rough questions.

It looks like we may have bottomed out early this morning at around 928 mb  which is definitely CAT 5 material. I haven’t seen this extrapolated measurement verified by people that I trust completely, yet, but if true, this would be the lowest extrapolated pressure that was observed by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft.

By “extrapolated,” I mean the pressure is measured at about 10,000 feet, and you must calculate the additional air pressure beneath flight level to arrive at the correct surface pressure.

Here is a Twitter report showing the actual analytical measurements, which I haven’t had time to extrapolate myself. 

 

Edited August 29, 2021 by Raptor Witness

[Raptor Witness]

Here’s the actual flight level measurement, so this does not look like it was extrapolated to the surface pressure, and so is not likely the lowest pressure.

Here’s also a link to all the hurricane hunter aircraft flight data, for those who wish to push through the weeds.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Raptor Witness

[Jon the frog]

To build upon deltas from a giant river like the Mississippi River and in a region prone to be washed by hurricane was a bad idea from the beginning... Louisiana is sadly in a bad situation.

[Raptor Witness]

OK so I looked at the data above, and it definitely looks like that 928 mb reading was probably flight level pressure. So our lowest pressure was closer to about 930 mb, but since we are still sitting at about 931 mb that’s pretty amazing, considering the amount of land friction Ida is enduring right now.

Source

Source

Source

[Trelane]

45 minutes ago, Raptor Witness said:

Since this is my “disaster porn” thread, I get to ask the rough questions.

It looks like we may have bottomed out early this morning at around 928 mb  which is definitely CAT 5 material. I haven’t seen this extrapolated measurement verified by people that I trust completely, yet, but if true, this would be the lowest extrapolated pressure that was observed by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft.

By “extrapolated,” I mean the pressure is measured at about 10,000 feet, and you must calculate the additional air pressure beneath flight level to arrive at the correct surface pressure.

Here is a Twitter report showing the actual analytical measurements, which I haven’t had time to extrapolate myself. 

 

What "rough" questions do you pose then?

[Raptor Witness]

Listen to the Grand Isle Police Chief wishing he had evacuated …. 

 

[Raptor Witness]

It’s official from the National Hurricane Center …. ….. 

 “Hurricane Ida makes landfall at 11:55 CST  as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph at a ground level pressure of 930 mb. The point was Port Fourchon, LA 70357.

Source - Google Maps

Edited August 29, 2021 by Raptor Witness

[+joc]

Does anyone get this?  Why...if you are an owner of a shop in the French Quarter...Why, do you leave umbrellas up, signs hanging outside, nothing looks boarded up, just another day on Bourbon street.  

 

[L.A.T.1961]

17 minutes ago, joc said:

Does anyone get this?  Why...if you are an owner of a shop in the French Quarter...Why, do you leave umbrellas up, signs hanging outside, nothing looks boarded up, just another day on Bourbon street.  

 

Good insurance cover or very keen to get out. 

[+joc]

2 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Good insurance cover or very keen to get out. 

I have seen people walking around down there...I don't think they are taking any of this seriously...looks like the eye will hit close to Houma which is West of NO...so...there is going to be very significant storm surge....

Edited August 29, 2021 by joc

[L.A.T.1961]

1 minute ago, joc said:

I have seen people walking around down there...I don't think they are taking any of this seriously...looks like the eye will hit close to Houma

I have seen somebody walking a dog on a live feed. There is always one.  

Land fall just about perfect for affecting New Orleans.  

[Raptor Witness]

 

 

Special Alert - Ida is slowing down to make a right turn. Her forward speed has dropped from 16 mph down to 13 mph, as she pivots around the Big Easy.

In my view this is likely the …
Levee Coup de grâce

Governor Edwards might as well order the body bags …. 

Source

[Raptor Witness]

From the fish camp of David Tallo Jr. in Port Fourchon, LA where hurricane Ida made landfall.

You won’t be disappointed with this amazing video. I’m hard to impress but …. …. Whoa!

 

[Raptor Witness]

Veteran Storm Chaser Reed Timmer is in Houma, LA now, awaiting the arrival of the eye. 

 

Edited August 29, 2021 by Raptor Witness

[Raptor Witness]

11 hours ago, Raptor Witness said:

Mother is homing in like a mountain grizzly, and playing dead, isn’t an option in this case.

I fear this is the beginning of a new phase of earth operations.

11 hours ago, Raptor Witness said:

Hurricane Ida Closing In on the “Big Easy” ….

Sadly, it may now be too late to get of the way, as it’s more dangerous to be driving on the highways.

>>>>>>>>>>>

Source

 

______________________

Hurricane Ida, a.k.a. "Mountain Mother" can't decide if she wants to eat New Orleans, or just scare the Big Easy out of them.  Look how Ida's direction changes the moment she tastes landfall. It's almost as if she's circling them ....  ....

Most of the veteran storm chasers landed over in Houme, LA, waiting for the Big Eye to move NW, but Ida pulled a fast one on them, abruptly turning north instead. 

If you use the link below this image, set the animation for 200 frames, hit play in the lower right, then click the speed up(also lower right button,)  andyou can see more easily the abrupt change in direction, once Ida tasted land.

I think Ida could smell the gumbo.

Source

Edited August 30, 2021 by Raptor Witness

[+Razman]

4 hours ago, Raptor Witness said:

Veteran Storm Chaser Reed Timmer is in Houma, LA now, awaiting the arrival of the eye. 

 

Yea i watched the Reed Timmer thing for a couple hours, the eye wall came right in close to Houma , then turned a bit to the north. Then he took off east to Mathews to catch the eye, when the road was blocked by too many power lines eventually.  Fascinating experience  to watch. Last i heard of him , he was in the eye. But haven't seen anything from him on the other side of the eye yet. I had heard one of the oil rigs broke free over the gulf , but have not seen anything else about it.

Edited August 30, 2021 by razman

[Raptor Witness]

When Ida made landfall, I think these folks at the NHC were scratching their heads, instead of scratching their noses.

Edited August 30, 2021 by Raptor Witness

[Raptor Witness]

Amazing footage of some of the worst winds and damage….

[Raptor Witness]

Levee break in progress ….Braithwaite, LA

[+Razman]

On 8/27/2021 at 11:41 AM, Raptor Witness said:

Source

As a fledgling forecaster back in 2005, I traveled to and experienced the aftermath of hurricane Katrina, first hand. I moved to the Mississippi Gulf Coast, not long afterwards. Near Waveland, Mississippi I observed 20+ storm surge for the first time in my life, and saw neighborhoods wiped clean, except for the slabs and the washing machines. It was surreal ...

Note the explosion in size of the tropical storm wind field.

I dont know but that top track pick from friday , they had it pegged nearly dead on . Just the timing was off some.

[Raptor Witness]

More devastating surge on the southwest side of Lake Pontchartrain ….

My heart is with the flood victims. Been there in 2018, and I’m still recovering.