Taiwan asks Australia to help prepare for war

[DarkHunter]

43 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

They have been building up for years and have developed carrier killer missiles.

I think the invasion would be won quicker than what you envision.

Building up the ability and having all the man power, equipment, supplies, and transportation all in the right place are two drastically different things.  There arent half a million to a million soldiers waiting right on the coast ready to board ships in the harbor ready to invade Taiwan.  

As for these carrier killer missiles they have never been demonstrated to actually be effective against an actual carrier.  There are a lot of steps involved in hitting a movie target with a ballistic missile and America is pretty good at messing up those steps.  They are a threat but they also arent some magical super weapon that is a perfect counter to the American navy despite what China likes to claim.

And you seem to believe China could land mass troops with no build up and take Taiwan in a day or two.

[Grey Area]

China’s not stupid, it knows that an invasion of Taiwan runs the risk of open war with the US.

With that in mind, One of two things must happen in conjunction with a Taiwan invasion, that is positioning all military assets into defensive positions to fend off any attack, or position all assets into offensive positions to strike first.  Not to mention any allied assets as well.

I would also suggest such large scale combat would prompt NK to make some moves as well.  Unless China pulls off the largest surprise attack since Pearl harbour, there must be significant warning signs before an invasion.

Also I can’t confirm this, but a number of years ago, a Chinese friend of mine suggested that whatever forces China commits to any conflict, it would need to double that number to have enough internal security to ensure all the provinces stay loyal.  After all, it wasn’t so long ago China was a group of provinces all vying for power, or being invaded by foreign powers.  Centralised government is relatively new.

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

17 minutes ago, Tom1200 said:

Does that sequence of words mean something?

Your contributions are neither funny nor clever.  You're not making any worthwhile statement or argument.  Your grammar and syntax are very poor.  What are you hoping to achieve - derision? sympathy? nausea?  

You stated in post #16 "China (has) never have invaded any other country" which is clearly demonstrable nonsense.  Are you prepared to engage in a meaningful discussion about how wrong you are, or are you going to reply with a whole load more smug, pretentious, pseudo-intellectual garbage?

Modern post-Chairman Kitty Kat has never invaded any other country that it did it previously claim to be already part of China. 

[jmccr8]

I am not sure that the PRC invading forces would have it all that easy taking Taiwan in a brief encounter 

https://theconversation.com/taiwan-how-the-porcupine-doctrine-might-help-deter-armed-conflict-with-china-169488

Taiwan has been preparing for possible conflict with China for a long time. It has long acknowledged that China is too powerful to engage with in a conflict on equal terms. Accordingly, Taipei’s strategy has shifted to deterrence in terms of the human and therefore political costs making war would inflict on China. This thinking was confirmed in the recently published Quadriennal Defense Review 2021.

Taipei’s defence plan is based on a strategy of asymmetric warfare – what is known as the “porcupine doctrine”. This involves tactics for “evading enemy’s strengths and exploiting their weaknesses” and a set of escalating options that acknowledge China’s proximity to Taiwanese coast. The idea, according to the defence review, is to “resist the enemy on the opposite shore, attack it at sea, destroy it in the littoral area, and annihilate it on the beachhead”.

There have been several studies and simulations that concluded that Taiwan may at least contain a Chinese military incursion into the island. In a nutshell, the Taiwan’s porcupine doctrine has three defensive layers. The outer layer is about intelligence and reconnaissance to ensure defence forces are fully prepared.Behind this come plans for guerrilla warfare at sea with aerial support from sophisticated aircraft provided by the US. The innermost layer relies on the geography and demography of the island. The ultimate objective of this doctrine is that of surviving and assimilating an aerial offensive well enough to organise a wall of fire that will prevent the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from successfully invading.

[spartan max2]

I feel like Taiwan defense is meant to hold on long enough for allies to arrive.

Which wouldn't take too long if the Quad becomes a serious alliance (US, Japan, South Korea, India, plus Australia) 

[jmccr8]

7 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

I feel like Taiwan defense is meant to hold on long enough for allies to arrive.

Hi Spartan

I am inclined to think that Taiwan can do a little more than just keep them at bay until the posse comes along. They are Asian and understand the way the Chinese think so it is quite possible that they can create political pressure for the PRC in China with their own people. Not everyone in China is a communist and we have seen plenty of protests in China and Hong Kong so we know that having more than one battle on their hands will not be economically reasonable nor can they afford to be fighting their own people on several fronts.

15 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

Which wouldn't take too long if the Quad becomes a serious alliance (US, Japan, South Korea, India, plus Australia) 

That is an assumption that they would get involved as no commitments have been made although the US has held onto that they would support peaceful negotiations

[Saru]

Thread cleaned

Let's keep it civil please folks.

[spartan max2]

On 10/5/2021 at 7:44 PM, jmccr8 said:

Hi Sparatn

This is from your link.

Taiwan has never declared independence, 

 

So they still identify as part of China on some level if they have not declared that they are independent

I was curious about this and found this.

This is Taiwan's president. 

 

  Quote

We don’t have a need to declare ourselves an independent state,” Tsai told the BBC. “We are an independent country already and we call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/15/tsai-ing-wen-says-china-must-face-reality-of-taiwans-independence

 

Just sounds like more gaslighting attempts by China. 

Edited October 9, 2021 by spartan max2

[Golden Duck]

10 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

I was curious about this and found this.

This is Taiwan's president. 

 

  Quote

We don’t have a need to declare ourselves an independent state,” Tsai told the BBC. “We are an independent country already and we call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/15/tsai-ing-wen-says-china-must-face-reality-of-taiwans-independence

 

Just sounds like more gaslighting attempts by China. 

Yeah, the Republic Of China is gaslighting you too.

[Abramelin]

On 10/4/2021 at 10:58 PM, Manwon Lender said:

I have no doubt, but I would say that the way things are going it will be the next World War. Let's just hope that somehow better judgement and common sense will prevail.

JIMO

"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."

~Woody Allen

[spartan max2]

10 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

Yeah, the Republic Of China is gaslighting you too.

I don't know why some of you can't grasp that civil wars often resolve in two different countries that try to claim a similar name. Seems very silly. Like it's not difficult to grasp. 

They call themselves an independent nation. By academic definitions of independent nations they count as an independent nation. By the common sense standard of independence they are an independent nation.

Its like trying to say New Mexico is part of Mexico because they were historically, had a war, and have Mexico in the name  lol

But by all means be contrary. Let us not say something Xi wouldn't like.

Edited October 10, 2021 by spartan max2

[Golden Duck]

6 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

I don't know why some of you can't grasp that civil wars often resolve in two different countries that try to claim a similar name. Seems very silly. Like it's not difficult to grasp. 

They call themselves an independent nation. By academic definitions of independent nations they count as an independent nation. By the common sense standard of independence they are an independent nation.

Its like trying to say New Mexico is part of Mexico because they were historically, had a war, and have Mexico in the name  lol

But by all means be contrary. Let us not say something Xi wouldn't like.

New Mexico doesn't claim the same land as Mexico.  And, YOU cry about others arguing in vad faith.

[godnodog]

My take on this.

Taiwan never rejected China, they rejected the regime installed in China.

If for some unknown reason China would turn into a democracy, a peaceful reunification might become possible.

 

[qxcontinuum]

On 10/4/2021 at 4:52 PM, OverSword said:

Anyone else have a feeling that China's ridiculous claim they own Taiwan will be the beginning of the next big war?

China, Iran, Russia against the word. Yes I can see it happening !

[spartan max2]

3 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

New Mexico doesn't claim the same land as Mexico.  And, YOU cry about others arguing in vad faith.

Also you:

Quote

Is the ROC constitution valid when it states that Mongolia still falls under its governance?

So now Mongolia is part of Taiwan? And not an independent nation? Or Taiwan and Mongolia are in a civil war but the same nation because they lay political claim to the same land. Following your logic, yes? 

You can't have it both ways. 

 

And yes, arguing in bad faith = ignoring all my points expect for select ones you think you have a rebuttal to.

Edited October 10, 2021 by spartan max2

[Golden Duck]

 

 

29 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

Also you:

So now Mongolia is part of Taiwan? And not an independent nation? Or Taiwan and Mongolia are in a civil war but the same nation because they lay political claim to the same land. Following your logic, yes? 

You can't have it both ways. 

 

And yes, arguing in bad faith = ignoring all my points expect for select ones you think you have a rebuttal to.

It's a simple question.  Why is it so hard for ROC to change It's Constitution?

I'm giving primacy to history and the current official position of the consensus of the UN and it's members over your beliefs or faith.

It comes down to friends, interests or the bogeyman of the day.

As english speakers should we be worried about anglophones?

Edited October 10, 2021 by Golden Duck

[Duke Wellington]

3 hours ago, qxcontinuum said:

China, Iran, Russia against the word. Yes I can see it happening !

I really don`t think the USA is prepared to take 200 million of its citizens being killed to help Taiwan.

Taiwan would instead be a proxy war with funds, information, and technology, going in, but them being left to fight it themselves. Meanwhile the Chinese and US navies would simply have a standoff. For that reason I`m going to say that as soon as its ready China will take Taiwan by force. They will call the US bluff because they know Americans aren`t insane.

The only strategy that exists to keep Taiwan independent is to give them a nuclear deterrent of their own.

Edited October 10, 2021 by Cookie Monster

[Duke Wellington]

When it comes to the global strategic options then the USA doesnt need to go to war with China.

Should China move on Taiwan, the USA just needs to move on Iran. The reason being is China gets most of its oil imports from Iran. Without oil the factories and cars in China dont run.

[Golden Duck]

1 hour ago, Cookie Monster said:

When it comes to the global strategic options then the USA doesnt need to go to war with China.

Should China move on Taiwan, the USA just needs to move on Iran. The reason being is China gets most of its oil imports from Iran. Without oil the factories and cars in China dont run.

Not true.  Their largest importer of oil is Saudi Arabia. that trade volume is worth nearly $30 billion.  They've loaned twice that amount to a place called Venezuela.  Could that be an investment in energy security?

[+OverSword]

On 10/10/2021 at 4:09 AM, Abramelin said:

"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."

~Woody Allen

Quoting a child molester?  Hmm.

[+OverSword]

20 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

New Mexico doesn't claim the same land as Mexico.  And, YOU cry about others arguing in vad faith.

What are you talking about.  New Mexico used to be part of Mexico, therefore the comparison works.  Also the government in Taiwan, Republic of China is older than the Peoples Republic of China, they are in fact the Chinese Government in exile.

[+and-then]

On 10/7/2021 at 1:46 PM, Grey Area said:

China’s not stupid, it knows that an invasion of Taiwan runs the risk of open war with the US.

Well, THAT'S debatable, innit?  Look at the world from Xi's POV.  America is as divided as it has ever been since the 1860s.  We have a clearly senile geriatric in the Oval Office who literally cannot be trusted to make an extemporaneous speech.  Whoever is in control of his administration has shown little willingness to fight as opposed to engaging in rank, servile appeasement.  Xi and his PLA advisers could very well see this as an opportunity that may not come again for many years.  There is a lot of truth to the old saying - Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat

[+and-then]

39 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Quoting a child molester?  Hmm.

Not just ANY child, either. His OWN, adopted daughter...sick, twisted, evil...

[spartan max2]

17 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

 

 

It's a simple question.  Why is it so hard for ROC to change It's Constitution?

I'm giving primacy to history and the current official position of the consensus of the UN and it's members over your beliefs or faith.

It comes down to friends, interests or the bogeyman of the day.

As english speakers should we be worried about anglophones?

I am at a loss of why you think this supports your point when in reality you're arguing against your point. 

Yes, Taiwan should change it's Constitution to not include the independent nation of Mongolia. Just like China should change it's to not include the independent nation of Taiwan. 

According to you, Taiwan is not a valid nation because it claims Mongolia. So by that same logic than China is not a valid nation for claiming Taiwan. 

Also, according to you, Taiwan is not a valid nation because China claims it. Than by that same logic Mongolia is not a valid nation because Taiwan claims it.

Do you see why your logic is contradictory here?

Would you also agree that a diplomatically unrecognized nation is still a nation by common sense (and academic) measures? Such as it's own elections, culture, military, alliances, etc?

Or are you going to argue that the People Republic of China did not exist until 1971 because that's when the UN recongized it? Lol

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by spartan max2

[Abramelin]

2 hours ago, OverSword said:

Quoting a child molester?  Hmm.

You're an idiot.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soon-Yi_Previn