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Tension increasing between Azerbaijan and Iran


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Tensions have been steadily increasing between Azerbaijan and Iran over the past few weeks.

Seems the increase in tensions started when Azerbaijan began taxing, searching, and in a few occasions arresting Iranian truck drivers who were trying to deliver supplies to Armenian settlements in contested territory through Azerbaijan controlled territory. 

In response Iran has decided to conduct a large military drill on its border with Azerbaijan, saying how the drill is connected with driving the Zionist presence out of the region, Iran is generally unhappy with the level of cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan especially after the recent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia which saw Azerbaijan using Israeli and Turkish drones to devastate the Armenian military.  In response to the military drill near the border Azerbaijan has announced it will do it's own large military drill with the Turkish military on the Azerbaijan and Iran border.  Iran has complained about Azerbaijan and Turkey doing military drills in the Caspian see claiming Azerbaijan is violating a treaty involving the Caspian sea and nations not touching it.

In the past few days an attempted terror attack being planned by the IRGC was foiled in Cyprus.  The target of the attack was to be Israeli businessmen in Cyprus and the method was to use Azeri assassin/s, not clear if it was one person or a team.  Seems Azerbaijan is not thrilled with this and there are starting to be reports of the Azerbaijan government cracking down on groups who are pro-Iran or have connections to Iran.  Also some reports of the Azerbaijan government closing the Iranian mission in Baku with the Azerbaijan government now considering buying the Israeli arrow 3 defense system as tensions continue to increase.

Lastly there was some talk previously on social media, mostly twitter, from people with ties to the Iranian government, essentially reporters, influencers, people the Iranian government has traditionally used to move information without the government officially saying it, have been saying how Iran can fire thousands of ballistic missiles a day at Azerbaijan and any war would be over in under 24 hours with the complete destruction of Azerbaijan.

A war between Azerbaijan and Iran is unlikely but it is another flashpoint in a largely unstable region that runs the risk of escalation and pulling in major regional powers.

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Such a conflict would be bad but have nowhere near the impact that the CCP retaking Taiwan would cause.  It's beginning to look like an inevitability since the U.S. has become an international joke.

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