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DarkHunter

Protest turning violent in Beruit

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DarkHunter

Earlier today violence broke out in Beruit when a gun battle broke out during a protest.  Essentially Hezbollah and Amal, a shia political party, planned a march to demand the removal of Bitar.  Bitar is a Lebanese judge and is leading the investigation into the 2020 Beruit port explosion, it seems he has filed indictment charges against multiple high level officials, most if not all either in Hezbollah or Amal or tied to one or both groups.

It seems when the march started snipers began firing at the protesters which caused a rather large gun battle to break out, large amount of automatic gunfire along with multiple RPGs fired in the city.  The Lebanese military did step in and managed to end the shooting.  

The group seemingly being blamed for this starting is the Lebanese Forces, a Christian political group, who vowed to have a counter protest to keep Batir leading the investigation.  From what I understand they have not commented yet on the gun battle or taken any responsibility for what occured.

Casualties so far seem to be 6 dead and over 30 wounded.  The gun fire seems to of been largely indiscriminate with people just shooting wherever they felt there might be someone they are trying to hit.  

There is already some comparisons being made to the Lebanese civil war, ironically enough the gun battle began close to where the Lebanese civil war began.

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DarkHunter

To top it off Hezbollah social media accounts are now posting threats towards the leader of Lebanese Forces.

As for the gun battle it seems it was mostly Amal gunmen just shooting randomly.  Reports are seemingly indicating there was no leadership among this heavily armed protesters and they just shot at anything and everything.  When asked who or what they were shooting at they frequently responded walls.  Atleast one RPG was fired into a house cause it was believed an opposing gunman may have been hiding in the house.

There arent even accurate reports on where the supposed sniper fire came from.

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and then

Iran uses the Hizballah as a proxy to govern Lebanon and until the Lebanese are willing to fight to remove them, that situation will not change.  Syria is next on Iran's agenda but that issue is more complicated.  Bennett and Lapid have both clearly stated that Israel is justified in acting alone to remove Iran's ability to field a nuclear weapon and that they reserve the right to "act at any moment"

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/13/israel-reserves-the-right-to-act-against-iran-yair-lapid

I think the current administration in the U.S., whoever is in charge, has become frustrated that even with near-total willingness to remove sanctions and offer incentives to Iran to restart the deal, Iran is refusing while implying they will return to talks, "later".  Once they restarted enrichment (IF they ever stopped) the timeline became relatively clear and they are at the threshold for weapon's grade material in sufficient quantity to assemble one or more bombs.  The DAY they test, or even just announce that they have the bomb, Israel will have a very deadly, dangerous choice to make and I think they'll choose to fight rather than sit around and wait for Iran to create an arsenal and use nuclear blackmail to consolidate their grip of power on that region.  There are three principal sites involved in the nuclear work, in three separate cities and it will require the ability to neutralize the S-400 systems to be successful.  

Should they neutralize those three sites, THEN the war begins.  It would be well for the rest of the world to put pressure on Iran to try to avoid the beginning of a conflict whose outcome, no one can predict.

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