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How quickly does the climate recover?


Still Waters
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Posted (IP: Staff) ·

Climate change is causing temperatures to rise and is also increasing the likelihood of storms, heavy rain, and flooding—the recent flood disaster in the Ahr valley in Germany is just one such example. What we need to ask ourselves in this connection is how quickly the climate can recover from the warming caused by an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Professor Philip Pogge von Strandmann of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) set out to investigate this aspect by considering the significant rise in global temperatures of five to eight degrees Celsius that took place 56 million years ago—the fastest natural period of global warming that has impacted on our climate, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). It was most likely triggered by a volcanic eruption that released huge amounts of carbon dioxide or CO2 into the atmosphere. 

https://phys.org/news/2021-10-quickly-climate-recover.html

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I think the climate would recover rather quickly if there was a serious end of pollution. I am not sure if the ice caps would return, but they might stop melting. This probably won't happen though. As I see it, it would take a global contribution. If one country doesn't do it, then the rest will find it hard to. We are all competing, and in order to curb pollution an economic effort would have to be sacrificed.

 

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It talks of periods of 20,000 to 50,000 years - at which point the question would be academic since there would no longer be any humans (or anything higher than slime mould)  left to ask it.

 

Br Cornelius

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On 10/19/2021 at 1:26 PM, The_Phantom_Stranger said:

We are all competing, and in order to curb pollution an economic effort would have to be sacrificed.

I am not sure that follows.  It is the song and dance  put forward by those heavily invested in current technology.  New opportunities arise, resources and efforts can be reallocated to produce better returns. 

On 10/22/2021 at 3:12 PM, Br Cornelius said:

(or anything higher than slime mould) 

A little too pessimistic I think.  Some species will flourish with all the room created if human civilization stumbles or gets set back a couple thousand years.  Not a good thing for us humans, but not so bad for all species. 

It may not be a useful argument either.  The same people who don't give a rip about climate change also don't care about other species for the same self-centered  short -sighted reasons.

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1 minute ago, Tatetopa said:

 

A little too pessimistic I think.  Some species will flourish with all the room created if human civilization stumbles or gets set back a couple thousand years.  Not a good thing for us humans, but not so bad for all species. 

It may not be a useful argument either.  The same people who don't give a rip about climate change also don't care about other species for the same self-centered  short -sighted reasons.

My statement is not based upon guesswork, in  previous mass extinction events of similar magnitude 95% of all species died off.
Systemic ecosystem collapse. Life is very robust and will survive with 100% certainty but it will see massive change of the life profile.

Br Cornelius

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There's really no "normal" to return to. We are still in a Glacial Age and the present time is an interglacial period. Human influenced warming may extend it, but not forever.

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1 hour ago, Hammerclaw said:

There's really no "normal" to return to. We are still in a Glacial Age and the present time is an interglacial period. Human influenced warming may extend it, but not forever.

Which is something of a distraction from the change we are causing.

Br Cornelius

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7 minutes ago, Br Cornelius said:

Which is something of a distraction from the change we are causing.

Br Cornelius

The change is ephemeral. Climate cycles don't adhere to to human timelines and Earth's climate is dynamic, never static. What we've added to the equation is intriguing, but nothing compared to what a super volcanic eruption would do.

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6 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

The change is ephemeral. Climate cycles don't adhere to to human timelines and Earth's climate is dynamic, never static. What we've added to the equation is intriguing, but nothing compared to what a super volcanic eruption would do.

Again a bit of a distraction if our activities lead directly to our own extinction. There are so many ways in which climate change will impact our existence in dramatically negative ways. So a natural event could wipe us out, that doesn't make a man made event any less tragic for us.

The genetic record tells us that an Indian volcano did almost drive us to extinction - but volcanoes are temporary and short lived. They can kill us but a sustained change to our atmosphere over hundreds of years is a preventable catastrophe which we know the end point of.

Such what-aboutary is just a distraction from what we do have control over if we just choose to care enough about our future.
 

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius
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1 minute ago, Br Cornelius said:

Again a bit of a distraction if our activities lead directly to our own extinction. There are so many ways in which climate change will impact our existence in dramatically negative ways. So a natural event could wipe us out, that doesn't make a man made event any less tragic for us.

The genetic record tells us that an Indian volcano did almost drive us to extinction - but volcanoes are temporary and short lived. They can kill us but a sustained change to our atmosphere over hundreds of years is a preventable catastrophe which we know the end point of.

Such what-aboutary is just a distraction from what we do have control over if we just choose to care enough about our future.
 

Br Cornelius

I don't participate in the false dichotomy of such Malthusian negativism. The climate will change, with or without us and is headed nowhere that it's never been before, just not in the lifetime of the human race. In the long term, planets are deathtraps, leaving whatever engineer species that evolves on them one catastrophe away from complete annihilation. Any truly advanced culture becomes nomadic, unwedded to any one star. Nevermind, I'll leave to your role of Chicken Little, wringing hands about the sky falling.

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6 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

I don't participate in the false dichotomy of such Malthusian negativism. The climate will change, with or without us and is headed nowhere that it's never been before, just not in the lifetime of the human race. In the long term, planets are deathtraps, leaving whatever engineer species that evolves on them one catastrophe away from complete annihilation. Any truly advanced culture becomes nomadic, unwedded to any one star. Nevermind, I'll leave to your role of Chicken Little, wringing hands about the sky falling.

Which again is just a nice way of denying that we have agency in our own immediate future. I think its you who are an ostrich denying agency.

Until someone works out a way of re-writing the basic rules of physics - we are never getting off this planet in any meaningful way, and even though I love a good SI-FI story I would rather try to save the only home we have rather than dreaming of an escape path off the mess we are creating. To dream of escape is to dream of failure.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius
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Just now, Br Cornelius said:

Which again is just a nice way of denying that we have agency in our own immediate future. I think its you who are an ostrich denying agency.

Until someone works out a way of re-writing the basic rules of physics - we are never getting off this planet in any meaningful way, and even though I love a good SI-FI story I would rather try to save the only home we have rather than dreaming of an escape path off the mess we are creating.

Br Cornelius

Everyone should dream and that's all it is, a dream. The West doesn't control the world and others nations aren't so willing to destroy their economies and starve their peoples to realize that dream.  

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2 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

Everyone should dream and that's all it is, a dream. The West doesn't control the world and others nations aren't so willing to destroy their economies and starve their peoples to realize that dream.  

An economy is worth nothing if you die from a preventable crisis. The economy is a human invention based upon a perversion of natural order. Nature is cyclic and sustainable, it uses only what it grows, and it is the only economy that works in the long term.

Br Cornelius

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2 hours ago, Br Cornelius said:

My statement is not based upon guesswork, in  previous mass extinction events of similar magnitude 95% of all species died off.
Systemic ecosystem collapse. Life is very robust and will survive with 100% certainty but it will see massive change of the life profile.

Yes to be sure.  I know it is not guesswork. Every extinction so far has resulted in  dominant orders fading and new orders rising to fill the niches in an explosion of creativity.  There may not be intelligent life again but in a couple million years, the earth will be a full of rich ecosystems full of organisms we don't imagine today.  It is humans that will suffer irreversible damage, not the earth. 

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11 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

The West doesn't control the world and others nations aren't so willing to destroy their economies and starve their peoples to realize that dream.  

Do you accept the scare tactics of those who want to control you without question or investigation?

Did you grow hair on your palms or go blind? You can't believe everything somebody tells you.

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I find it deeply annoying and ironic that when I want to do something about our survivability I am met be a form of fatalism and escape to fantasy which prevents any action to improve our situation.
 

Br Cornelius

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7 minutes ago, Br Cornelius said:

Which again is just a nice way of denying that we have agency in our own immediate future. I think its you who are an ostrich denying agency.



Br Cornelius

Unless you look at the bigger picture then attempting to come up with a sensible path forward is doomed to fail. 

Throwing massive resources at reducing Co2 while suggesting it is the only priority and ignoring the effect on a fairly unstable global economy is not a good idea.

There has to be a solution that does not kill off a significant number of people and consign many more to a life time of energy, mobility and food poverty while pushing for ever faster change.

It is a societal engineering that, in human history, hasn't been tried before and a jump into the dark.  

 

 

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10 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Unless you look at the bigger picture then attempting to come up with a sensible path forward is doomed to fail. 

Throwing massive resources at reducing Co2 while suggesting it is the only priority and ignoring the effect on a fairly unstable global economy is not a good idea.

There has to be a solution that does not kill off a significant number of people and consign many more to a life time of energy, mobility and food poverty while pushing for ever faster change.

It is a societal engineering that, in human history, hasn't been tried before and a jump into the dark.  

 

 

The economic crisis is simply another symptom of an unsustainable approach to existence. Only by fundamentally moving towards a sustainable economy will all the other problems be resolvable. At the core of the crisis is the fact that the current economy only works with growth. Take away the growth and everything collapses.
Until this is acknowledged there are no solutions and all the great scientific minds understand this to be a foundational issue.

Growth only makes sense if there is a constant supply of new territory in which to absorb it. That has not been the case for over 300 years - the point at which our problems really began.

Unless we understand the causes we are just tinkering at the edges. Unless we address the cause then we are seeding control of the death of humanity to fate - a fate we could prevent. You seem to believe that we still have a choice to carry on as normal without mortal consequences.



Br Cornelius

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3 minutes ago, Br Cornelius said:

 At the core of the crisis is the fact that the current economy only works with growth. Take away the growth and everything collapses.
Until this is acknowledged there are no solutions and all the great scientific minds understand this to be a foundational issue.

Growth only makes sense if there is a constant supply of new territory in which to absorb it. that has not been the case fore over 300 years - the point at which our problems really began.

Unless we understand the causes we are just tinkering at the edges.



Br Cornelius

Growth comes in part from an increasing population, more people to find a job for and services, but at least in the developed world this problem seems to be sorting it's self out.

As growth is restricted by a lack of workers.  

 

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4 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Growth comes in part from an increasing population, more people to find a job for and services, but at least in the developed world this problem seems to be sorting it's self out.

As growth is restricted by a lack of workers.  

 

The money supply as currently constituted (fiat lent into existence with interest) is the driver of growth. Its not a fictional nominal growth - it requires a growth in resource utilization. Even in an economy with shrinking or stable populations if you use a growth based currency/economic model you still carry on destroying our resource base. This is one of the crisis dogging developed nations because real growth is stalled and there is no model to cope with this scenario. Fiat currency growth without material growth results in stagflation - which increases social divides and causes social instability and conflict.

Br Cornelius

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1 hour ago, Tatetopa said:

Do you accept the scare tactics of those who want to control you without question or investigation?

Did you grow hair on your palms or go blind? You can't believe everything somebody tells you.

Huh? What the f*^k are you talking about? Sometimes you drop in out of the blue, making absolutely no sense. You didn't stop taking your meds again, did you?

Edited by Hammerclaw
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On 10/19/2021 at 2:26 PM, The_Phantom_Stranger said:

I think the climate would recover rather quickly if there was a serious end of pollution. I am not sure if the ice caps would return, but they might stop melting. This probably won't happen though. As I see it, it would take a global contribution. If one country doesn't do it, then the rest will find it hard to. We are all competing, and in order to curb pollution an economic effort would have to be sacrificed.

 

The only serious end of pollution would be the complete demise of humans.  As for the ice caps melting, that is a cyclical thing that has happened several times over the millenia.  it will happen and it will freeze again.

Edited by Desertrat56
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8 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

the complete demise of humans.

:tu: We're the maggots that have drank the blood of mother earth and feed upon her corpse. 

Edited by XenoFish
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1 hour ago, Br Cornelius said:

I find it deeply annoying and ironic that when I want to do something about our survivability I am met be a form of fatalism and escape to fantasy which prevents any action to improve our situation.
 

Br Cornelius

What are you doing personally besides telling people things?   Do you still use plastic?  Are you driving a gasoline engine automobile?   

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8 hours ago, Br Cornelius said:

I find it deeply annoying and ironic that when I want to do something about our survivability I am met be a form of fatalism and escape to fantasy which prevents any action to improve our situation.

It is frustrating. There are only a few like Greta that can catch the imagination of many the way she does.  There are still more people that don't believe or that need to keep denial going to maintain their income stream.  I don't think that will change.  But the flow of money is going to change direction and that will help the climate change cause.  Solar is getting cheaper, In two years, payback has gone from 17 to 13 years on my house,  panel life  and efficiency have gone up. And in recent times battery walls have gotten cheaper and store more power.  Commercial solar and wind are getting cheaper.  As cost goes down, usage increases.  Market forces will push renewable power.  Self-repair is another issue becoming  big not only with conservationists but with people that can't afford to maintain their appliances and electronics any other way. Cost will drive a lot of other conservation measures.

Other people have an influence with the audience  in a specific field. For example,  I watch a BBC gardening program. along with a few million other people.  Gardeners are encouraged not to use peat due to the disappearance of so many bogs.  They are encouraged to grow plants for bees and other wildlife.  Frequently they get information on what plants are best adapted to keep gardens producing as climate changes.  That changes the trajectory of what we are doing to our urban environment. 

There are a lot of things going on all over the world.in many fields.  The most active ones are young people and middle income and poor people for the most part. What young people learn in the next decade will influence how they govern when they fill that role. 

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