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China’s Economic Miracle Is Ending


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The China miracle is ending. That miracle consisted of very exceptionally strong growth of the economy. By 2010, GDP per capita, adjusted for inflation, was 17 times higher than it had been in 1980. Consider that if living standards doubled in a generation, that would be pretty cool. But a 17 times increase? That can be called a miracle.

China’s growth has slowed in recent years, partly due to maturity. Extremely poor countries have the potential to grow rapidly. As they approach the level of developed countries, growth is harder and thus slows. See, for example, China Is Too Mature For Rapid Economic Growth.

Maturity is not the only issue. We need to delve into the source of the growth to evaluate whether it can continue.

Michael Schuman writes in the Atlantic, “China’s economic ‘miracle’ wasn’t that miraculous. The country’s high-octane ascent over the past 40 years is, in reality, a triumph of basic economic principles: As the state gave way to the market, private enterprise and trade flourished, growth quickened, and incomes soared.”

China's economic growth has decline in recent years.


The recent efforts by Xi Jinping to control the economy more tightly will diminish future growth, according to Schuman. And he’s right.



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Let's just hope that this waning growth doesn't lead to a Thucydides Trap. 

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China needs the west more than the west needs China.

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1 hour ago, OverSword said:

Forbes, I hate that media outlet.

Not because of this story but I quickly learned that if I brought shares in the opposite of who they said to buy them in I would make money. The latest China story has me scratching my head to be quite frank.

China is doing very well and they are attempting to frame their corona slowdown as their good times coming to an end? Most of Chinese society is not yet consuming, they have huge growth before they are fully industrialised. Their GDP will hit something ridiculous like $80 trillion by 2050.

Go with the opposite that they say, trust me!

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