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Can the Sun’s 11-Year Cycle Explain Global Warming?


Manwon Lender
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The Earth’s global climate system fluctuates in 11-year and 3,5-year cycles find Yizhak Feliks, Justin Small, and Michael Ghil. The study was published in Climate Dynamics on July 15th. The 11-year near-periodicity recalls that of the solar cycle, which climate-skeptics for decades have argued plays a major role in global warming. But the fluctuations between the Earth’s climate system and the sun are out of sync, the study finds. The work, which is part of the European TiPES project coordinated from the University of Copenhagen thus refutes the climate skeptics’ claim of major solar effects on recent climate evolution.

Can the Sun’s 11-Year Cycle Explain Global Warming? (scitechdaily.com)

Global oscillatory modes in high-end climate modeling and reanalyzes was published 15 July 2021 below is the link to this Peer  Reviewed scientific journal: Global oscillatory modes in high-end climate modeling and reanalyses | SpringerLink

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It's more likely caused by much longer cycles. We are still in an ice age, which has about ninety thousand years of ice age periods, punctuated by 10,000 year warm interglacial periods like the one we are currently in.

The main cause of ice ages is connected to something called the Milankovitch cycle. The Milankovitch cycle refers to the collective effects of changes in the Earth’s movements on its climate over thousands of years. Very small changes in the Earth’s orbit shift the angle at which the Sun’s rays hit the Earth. While this may seem like a small thing, it actually has a huge impact.

 

Even small tilt changes of the Earth can change the planet’s temperature by several degrees. When the tilt is low, ice sheets grow and snow continues to accumulate. When the tilt is high, the ice sheets melt away. Since then the tilt has reached a maximum of 24.2 degrees (10,000 years ago), current the Earth’s tilt measures approximately 23.5 degrees — and as a result, large ice sheets are restricted to the polar areas.

Milankovitch_Variations.png Relationship of Earth’s orbit to periods of glaciation.

It’s not just the tilt — other factors about the Earth’s orbit can play a role. The three main orbital parameters are:

  • eccentricity (how circular the Earth’s orbit around the Sun); this varies with periods between 400,000 and 100,000 years.
  • obliquity (how tilted the Earth is with respect to its orbit); this varies with a period of around 40,000 years.
  • precession (changes between the distance of the Sun and the Earth in over the same season); this varies with a period of around 23,000 years and is particularly important.      ZME SCIENCE
Edited by Hammerclaw
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Short answer: No

Long answer: Folks need to stop making excuses to avoid doing what we all know we have to do but some people decide it's haaaaard and might require lifestyle changes and minor inconveniences and listening to people objectively smarter then the average republican. 

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12 minutes ago, Autochthon1990 said:

Short answer: No

Long answer: Folks need to stop making excuses to avoid doing what we all know we have to do but some people decide it's haaaaard and might require lifestyle changes and minor inconveniences and listening to people objectively smarter then the average republican. 

Well you can start doing your part today.

https://www.ovoenergy.com/blog/green/the-carbon-footprint-of-the-internet

Get off the internet and some on UM will be grateful.

Your whole existence is dependent on petroleum products and coal. So stop the f'n whining and remove your carbon footprint today.

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1 minute ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Well you can start doing your part today.

https://www.ovoenergy.com/blog/green/the-carbon-footprint-of-the-internet

Get off the internet and some on UM will be grateful.

Your whole existence is dependent on petroleum products and coal. So stop the f'n whining and remove your carbon footprint today.

Apple AirPods cost $159, but they can't pay taxes or decent wages to their Chinese factory workers! .. you SAID ON AN iPHONE.)GoTCHA. HEH POST CARS SHOULD HAVE SEAT BELTS YET YOU BOUGHT ONE. HYPOCRITE MUCH? OWNED. WE SHOULD IMPROVE SOCIETY SOMEWHAT. YET you PARTICIPATE IN SOCIETY. CURIOUS! I AM VERY INTELLIGENT BORS Matt Bors AirPods comics people cartoon text human behavior fiction comic book communication fictional character

 

Sit down, the adults are talking. 

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1 minute ago, Hammerclaw said:

It's more likely caused by much longer cycles. We are still in an ice age, which has about ninety thousand years of ice age periods, punctuated by 10,000 year interglacial periods like the we are currently in.

The main cause of ice ages is connected to something called the Milankovitch cycle. The Milankovitch cycle refers to the collective effects of changes in the Earth’s movements on its climate over thousands of years. Very small changes in the Earth’s orbit shift the angle at which the Sun’s rays hit the Earth. While this may seem like a small thing, it actually has a huge impact.

 

Even small tilt changes of the Earth can change the planet’s temperature by several degrees. When the tilt is low, ice sheets grow and snow continues to accumulate. When the tilt is high, the ice sheets melt away. Since then the tilt has reached a maximum of 24.2 degrees (10,000 years ago), current the Earth’s tilt measures approximately 23.5 degrees — and as a result, large ice sheets are restricted to the polar areas.

Milankovitch_Variations.png Relationship of Earth’s orbit to periods of glaciation.

It’s not just the tilt — other factors about the Earth’s orbit can play a role. The three main orbital parameters are:

  • eccentricity (how circular the Earth’s orbit around the Sun); this varies with periods between 400,000 and 100,000 years.
  • obliquity (how tilted the Earth is with respect to its orbit); this varies with a period of around 40,000 years.
  • precession (changes between the distance of the Sun and the Earth in over the same season); this varies with a period of around 23,000 years and is particularly important.      ZME SCIENCE

Great post and I totally agree that the Earth axis tilt is a major fact in creating an ice or depending upon the angle of the shift a increase in global temperature gradient. You completely identified how the Earths rotational tilt effects global weather patterns and here is the fundamental theory that tilts like this occur.

""Earth’s latest ice age may have been caused by changes deep inside the planet. Based on evidence from the Pacific Ocean, including the position of the Hawaiian Islands, Rice University geophysicists have determined Earth shifted relative to its spin axis within the past 12 million years, which caused Greenland to move far enough toward the north pole to kick off the ice age that began about 3.2 million years ago. Their study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters is based on an analysis of fossil signatures from deep ocean sediments, the magnetic signature of oceanic crust and the position of the mantle “hot spot” that created the Hawaiian Islands. Co-authors Richard Gordon and Daniel Woodworth said the evidence suggests Earth spun steadily for millions of years before shifting relative to its spin axis, an effect geophysicists refer to as “true polar wander.”

""By volume, Earth is mostly mantle, a thick layer of solid rock that flows under intense pressure and heat. The mantle is covered by an interlocking puzzle of rocky tectonic plates that ride atop it, bumping and slipping against one another at seismically active boundaries. Hot spots, like the one beneath Hawaii, are plumes of hot solid rock that rise from deep within the mantle. Like any spinning object, Earth is subject to centrifugal force, which tugs on the planet’s fluid interior. At the equator, where this force is strongest, Earth is more than 26 miles larger in diameter than at the poles. Gordon said true polar wander may occur when dense, highly viscous bumps of mantle build up at latitudes away from the equator.""

""We think the dense anomalies in the mantle are like that little temporary pile, only the viscosities are much higher in the lower mantle. Like the syrup, it will eventually deform, but it takes a really, really long time to do so.”  Woodworth said the hot spot data from Hawaii provides some of the best evidence that true polar wander was what caused Earth’s poles to start moving 12 million years ago. Islands chains like the Hawaiians are formed when a tectonic plate moves across a hot spot. Gordon said, “It was only about a 3 degree shift, but it had the effect of taking the mantle under the tropical Pacific and moving it to the south, and at the same time, it was shifting Greenland and parts of Europe and North America to the north. That may have triggered what we call the ice age.”

""Earth is still in an ice age that began about 3.2 million years ago. Earth’s poles have been covered with ice throughout the age, and thick ice sheets periodically grow and recede from poles in cycles that have occurred more than 100 times. During these glacial cycles, ice has extended as far south as New York and Yellowstone National Park. Earth today is in an interglacial period in which ice has receded toward the poles. Gordon said true polar wander is not merely a change in the location of Earth’s magnetic poles. As the planet spins, it’s iron core produces a magnetic field with “north” and “south” poles near the spin axis. The polarity of this field flips several times every million years, and these changes in polarity are recorded in the magnetic signatures of rocks the world over.""

""The paleomagnetic record, which is often used to study the movement of tectonic plates across Earth’s surface, contains many instances of “apparent polar wander,” which tracks the motion of the spin axis and which includes the effects of both plate motion and true polar wander, Gordon said. He said Earth’s mantle is ever-changing as new material constantly cycles in and out from tectonic plates. The drawing down and recycling of plates via subduction provides a possible explanation for the highly viscous mantle anomalies that probably cause true polar wander. He and Woodworth are working with colleagues is to extend their analysis, both from 12 million years ago to the present as well as further into the past than the 48-million-year start date in the newly published study.""

https://news2.rice.edu/2018/11/19/true-polar-wander-may-have-caused-ice-age-2/

Paleolatitude of the Hawaiian Hot Spot Since 48 Ma: Evidence for a Mid-Cenozoic True Polar Stillstand Followed by Late Cenozoic True Polar Wander Coincident With Northern Hemisphere Glaciation  https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080787

Hot spot at Hawaii? Not so fast  https://news2.rice.edu/2017/08/18/hot-spot-at-hawaii-not-so-fast/

The influence of true polar wander on glacial inception in North America  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X1630749X

 

 

 

 

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4.2 billion years ago, the Mars-sized planet Theia, impacted the Earth, splashing it with her oceans and birthing her child, Selene, in our sky. Gigantic chunks of Theia's core still reside deep in Earth's crust.

Blobs of dense rock could be remnants of Theia, study finds (msn.com)

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17 hours ago, Autochthon1990 said:

Short answer: No

Long answer: Folks need to stop making excuses to avoid doing what we all know we have to do but some people decide it's haaaaard and might require lifestyle changes and minor inconveniences and listening to people objectively smarter then the average republican. 

Well, that rules you out, Pippin!:lol:

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