Russia Massing Military Forces on Ukraine's Eastern Border

[Helen of Annoy]

2 hours ago, godnodog said:

When it comes to gas and oil the EU is less dependent on Russia and other middle East countries than what you might it is. West Europe has oil reserves that have never been explored, Portugal has oil and gas, but public opinion is very much against setting up industrial exploration. Thought many Portuguese are not even aware that these reserves exists, there is another reason for not being explored, they are somewhat reserved, and by this I am not using the word reserves in the traditional use of the word when it comes to oil, it really is considered to be reserved if troubles come in the future.

 

What I find I find troublesome is that we see Russian troops movements in Ukraine, and already saw articles about Latvia also being somewhat threatened, is that simultaneously seeing China behaviour in the South China sea and it's increasing tension with its  southwest neighbours and Taiwan. 

Is Russian colluding with China?

Their relations always were and remain sweet and sour at the same time. 

On one hand, only the nuclear capability of both countries prevent them from one attacking the other. They will never trust each other enough to actually have a joint plan for anything. On the other hand, their interests and plans often did and will again happen to be the same or similar. They will always seize the opportunity to advance while the other is already throwing a spectacle. 

In other words, it's easy to imagine Chinese invasion of Taiwan while the West is busy with simultaneous Russian attack on Ukraine combined with Belarus inventing incidents in Baltic and domestic pro-Russians in Balkan starting a new war. It's not as nightmarish as it sounds, it's much worse  but nothing new or not expected. Expected things everyone is prepared for rarely happen. 

 

It's a type of situation for which Portugal, for example, keeps its own fossil fuel reserves reserved. It's a wise thing to do. 

There's natural gas in Adriatic sea too, it's being somewhat exploited by Italy and Croatia.

Technology exists (LNG) to transport gas from anywhere. Croatia just opened a new LNG terminal and it's only a matter of demand if there will be more of those. 

When asked how much they can increase production, Norway, second largest gas supplier for EUrope, said as much as it is demanded. They keep their production much lower simply because they have no need to sell more. Unlike Russia, that literally lives from EU gas money.  

 

Blackmailing the EU with fossil fuels, while the EU is ambitiously working on cutting fossil fuel consumption down, while having numerous other suppliers and sources, can and will backfire.   

But it's all they've got, besides migrants and posturing as if only they have tanks and psychopaths willing and able to inflict damage when allowed to do so. 

[+Hammerclaw]

4 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

There's no leader of the EU with autonomy in decision-making. While your country has the president with wide scope of autonomous decisions. The difference is that I don't care who's current president of which EU body, since they're all just officials and serve more like spokespersons than actual decision-makers. Decisions are made in constant advisory processes that do go down to the base, through EU parliament. In other words, the EU can afford a lunatic representing it formally, while the US can't afford a lunatic for a president.

Trump may be gone (not even that is certain, for shame) but the damage Trump did will linger on and weaken your country first and West consequentially for years to come.   

.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Hammerclaw

[Coil]

20 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

In my humble opinion, Ukraine shouldn't withdraw from Minsk agreements. Elections can be organized in the occupied territory with the assistance of international organizations. Domestic political disputes (Poroshenko-Zelenski) about that will be settled once it's clear what is guaranteed for Ukraine, after the real negotiations that are apparently happening are done.

We have rebelled several areas with protests against elections in the occupied territories earlier, so Zelensky will be demolished if he wants to hold elections there.

The opposition is just waiting for an excuse to oust the president, and now he is being hammered for the failed operation with the Russian mercenaries, the Wagnerites.

Quote

It seems that meeting between Putin and Biden is what will be presented to the public as the culmination of the negotiating process. So, it will all look clearer probably after that event.  

US spokesman Blinken also insists on the Minsk agreements, playing up to Putin. The Minsk agreements were signed only to stop the advance of Russian troops and not to fulfill them.

Ideally, there should be only one point about the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territory, and then we ourselves will put things in order there.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Coil

[Helen of Annoy]

2 hours ago, Coil said:

We have rebelled several areas with protests against elections in the occupied territories earlier, so Zelensky will be demolished if he wants to hold elections there.

The opposition is just waiting for an excuse to oust the president, and now he is being hammered for the failed operation with the Russian mercenaries, the Wagnerites.

US spokesman Blinken also insists on the Minsk agreements, playing up to Putin. The Minsk agreements were signed only to stop the advance of Russian troops and not to fulfill them.

I understand. I know exactly how it feels, when agreements are made that treat the aggressor side as if it was you who broke into their house, not they who broke in yours.      

Minsk agreements obviously exhausted their purpose.  

 

2 hours ago, Coil said:

Ideally, there should be only one point about the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territory, and then we ourselves will put things in order there.

Ideally, yes, absolutely. 

[Coil]

There is growing hysteria about the invasion of the russians, and the plan has already been found abroad:

 

 

Interesting comments from russians:

-It turns out the whole plan was developed in the United States. Here it is.

-They got in a hurry: and intelligence from them "reported", "the plan got into the hands" .

-But when Russia attacks, there is no longer any strength to wait!

-Russia is literally invited to Ukraine. They do everything for us.

-The Americans even developed a plan, but Russia never came to the war.

-They even wrote a plan for the best way and where to advance so as not to stumble.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Silver]

Invasion expected soon:

Intelligence shared by the United States has reportedly convinced its EU and Nato allies that Russia may intend to invade Ukraine shortly.

Russian forces have been massing on the border with Ukraine in recent weeks in large numbers, prompting concerns among some in the West Vladimir Putin will soon authorise an invasion.

Previous Russian troop movements near the Ukrainian border in the past have not resulted in conflict.

EU and Nato ‘believe Russia preparing to invade Ukraine’ | The Independent

Edited December 6, 2021 by The Silver Shroud

[Coil]

 

Well, the Americans convinced Germany to stop Nord Stream 2 if Russia attacks. So all these "attack maps" were created only to force Germany to stop this gas stream with their own hands.

The Ukrainians propose to gradually advance since the situation with the occupied territories is not progressing in any way and this is a convenient moment to put our own conditions to Russia. If our government misses this moment and Russia launches NS-2, then we will lose even more economically and politically. So Biden won the first battle forcing the Germans, in which case, close the NS-2.  Let's see how events will develop further since the stream can be started in six months and during this time a lot of things can happen.

Ideally, it would be necessary to set a condition for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Donbass and Crimea and in exchange for the launch of the NS-2, and maybe this idea will be worked out.

[Helen of Annoy]

5 hours ago, Coil said:

 

Well, the Americans convinced Germany to stop Nord Stream 2 if Russia attacks. So all these "attack maps" were created only to force Germany to stop this gas stream with their own hands.

No. It's not really worth arguing, but the image where the Americans were forcing an EU country to agree with sanctions against Russia in case of Russian attack on Ukraine is false in stupid manner. But, like I said, not worth arguing. I just want to extend my middle finger to the author of that conspiracy.   

 

5 hours ago, Coil said:

  Let's see how events will develop further since the stream can be started in six months and during this time a lot of things can happen.

Yes. 

 

5 hours ago, Coil said:

Ideally, it would be necessary to set a condition for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Donbass and Crimea and in exchange for the launch of the NS-2, and maybe this idea will be worked out.

Ideally, yes. But the realistic situation is very far from the ideal. 

NS2 is important for Russia, but it's not nearly all they've got, want or need. It's not realistic to narrow the whole situation down to it. 

May I'm proven wrong, of course. 

[Silver]

The situation is looking grave. It is becoming increasingly clear now why Russia spent so much effort and money on Brexit and Trump- weakening Western democracies by installing incompetent populist puppets may save Russian lives as they extend their influence with boots on the ground.

A full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale "not seen in Europe since World War Two", the new head of the armed forces has warned.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin described as "deeply worrying" an escalating crisis over Ukraine - where a build-up of tens of thousands of Russian troops has raised Western fears of a new armed incursion, almost eight years on from Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Dmytro Kuleba said he was working with allies like the United States and the UK on ways to deter the Kremlin but signalled that the Ukrainian military was ready to defend the country.

"They [the US and other allies] can strike economically. We will be fighting on the ground. I am sorry to say that, but there will be a lot of dead Russian soldiers, and we hope President Putin does not want that to happen."

Russian invasion of Ukraine could be on scale 'not seen in Europe since WWII', UK armed forces head warns (msn.com)

Edited December 9, 2021 by The Silver Shroud

[Coil]

On 12/8/2021 at 6:30 PM, Helen of Annoy said:

No. It's not really worth arguing, but the image where the Americans were forcing an EU country to agree with sanctions against Russia in case of Russian attack on Ukraine is false in stupid manner. But, like I said, not worth arguing. I just want to extend my middle finger to the author of that conspiracy.   

NS2 is important for Russia, but it's not nearly all they've got, want or need. It's not realistic to narrow the whole situation down to it. 

Reputationally, Biden loses to Russia whose influence is becoming even greater and the importance of gas creates economic crises
which are already hitting the countries hard. Also, Biden was struck two hard blows - the end of the construction of the NS-2 and the flight of troops from Afghanistan, so he needs to somehow restore the fallen reputation of his rule, so he shows that he is like he is the boss here and и  and is trying to rein in Russia.

Europeans should independently decide their own affairs and not be the puppets of the Americans and it is desirable to have their own European troops and not NATO ones. Maybe you don’t understand, but Biden cannot impose sanctions on the NS-2 it has already been completed, but the stream needs to be stopped?. America needs to weaken the growing ties between Europe and Russia, but it’s on another continent, what should we do then?
It is necessary for the Europeans to sever ties with Russia themselves and for this it is necessary to convince the world community of the attack by Russia, to activate its troops, to bring the state to a repeat of the Cold War, and then to impose maximum financial and economic restrictions. This is how America wants to break ties with the wrong hands and itself will play the role of a protector and assistant. These technologies have already been worked out and Russia is getting into a trap. The tension is not weakening, it is growing even more and they are already thinking about the transfer of American aircraft carriers to the Black Sea, and hot American heads dream of a first nuclear strike on Russia, and here Ukrainian interests are already playing a secondary role and the Americans took the initiative.

And our troops need to slowly advance, and then the Russians will advance with their large army to Donbass, and then we can put forward our own conditions and demand the complete withdrawal of troops from Donbass, and in return Germany allows launching NS-2 and we are missing this initiative.

[Coil]

13 hours ago, The Silver Shroud said:

 

"They [the US and other allies] can strike economically. We will be fighting on the ground. I am sorry to say that, but there will be a lot of dead Russian soldiers, and we hope President Putin does not want that to happen."

You know, our politicians play any noise on their hands, but it is not profitable for Russia to attack, and threats to attack are heard every year from our government. And in order to somehow reduce the successes of Russia and the launch of a stream, they fanned the attack this year.

[Helen of Annoy]

1 hour ago, Coil said:

Reputationally, Biden loses to Russia whose influence is becoming even greater and the importance of gas creates economic crises
which are already hitting the countries hard. Also, Biden was struck two hard blows - the end of the construction of the NS-2 and the flight of troops from Afghanistan, so he needs to somehow restore the fallen reputation of his rule, so he shows that he is like he is the boss here and и  and is trying to rein in Russia.

Europeans should independently decide their own affairs and not be the puppets of the Americans and it is desirable to have their own European troops and not NATO ones. Maybe you don’t understand, but Biden cannot impose sanctions on the NS-2 it has already been completed, but the stream needs to be stopped?. America needs to weaken the growing ties between Europe and Russia, but it’s on another continent, what should we do then?
It is necessary for the Europeans to sever ties with Russia themselves and for this it is necessary to convince the world community of the attack by Russia, to activate its troops, to bring the state to a repeat of the Cold War, and then to impose maximum financial and economic restrictions. This is how America wants to break ties with the wrong hands and itself will play the role of a protector and assistant. These technologies have already been worked out and Russia is getting into a trap. The tension is not weakening, it is growing even more and they are already thinking about the transfer of American aircraft carriers to the Black Sea, and hot American heads dream of a first nuclear strike on Russia, and here Ukrainian interests are already playing a secondary role and the Americans took the initiative.

And our troops need to slowly advance, and then the Russians will advance with their large army to Donbass, and then we can put forward our own conditions and demand the complete withdrawal of troops from Donbass, and in return Germany allows launching NS-2 and we are missing this initiative.

Nah.

In short: 

EUropean military alliance, or even EUropean military force, is a necessity that will happen in relatively close future, but it can't happen fast enough to replace NATO in the current Ukrainian situation. 

So you just have to invite Americans to this party too  

 

The long version:

There's no middle way. There are countries whose geopolitical situation allows them close relations and informal alliances, without officially belonging to an organization such as NATO. Such chance stopped existing for Ukraine at the moment Russia first attacked. (If they were less impatient, Ukraine could have been a buffer and a sort of mediator between former - apparently not so much former - blocs.)  

Only Russian voluntary withdrawal from Ukraine could create a situation that would allow Ukraine to not continue their accession to NATO. But Russian withdrawal can only be forced by united western promise of sanctions, backed up by NATO presence. NATO presence is also extremely important because it shows that Russian attempts at forcefully forbidding neighbours from cooperating with NATO is drawing NATO closer, not further from their borders.  

Besides, it's making just the right people apoplectic. What not to like about that? 

Russia can't advance in Ukraine, if they could, they already would. They wanted a show of force - and now they're getting it. And resulting panic, which they're not getting. Maybe someone made the plan assuming Trump and his clones in EU countries will cement their power by now  Or that EUrope needs gas and doesn't know how to buy it elsewhere, but Russia doesn't need gas money. All in all, one must never believe in own propaganda, but it seems someone forgot that. 

[+and-then]

A new twist in the game of geopolitics:

https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-threatens-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-/6354408.html

 

[Helen of Annoy]

15 hours ago, and then said:

A new twist in the game of geopolitics:

https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-threatens-to-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-/6354408.html

 

Not really. Russia habitually mentions nukes whenever they feel they've exhausted other extortion tools arguments. It has no weight anymore. It would have weight if they were not verbally waving with nukes every so often. 

Reading this part (it sums up the article)

Quote

Following the call between Johnson and Putin, Ryabkov told the state-run RIA Novosti news agency Russia’s “response will be 

I was tempted to joke about Johnson's apparently very interesting level of diplomatic skill, but this is absolutely not his fault. 

The important detail is - I think - that world agencies didn't report about Putin threatening openly with nukes, it was Russian Deputy Foreign Minister. Not a small fish, but not the head of the state either. And he gave that statement for domestic Russian agency, probably for domestic propaganda use. (Like, don't you worry, fellow countrymen, we've got nukes.)

While it really is habitual for Russia to mention their nukes, I don't think they will be in a hurry to actually deploy anything nuke-like in context of Ukraine. Because if the West doesn't respond to that, it would be useful propaganda gain (like, see, the West is afraid of us), but if the West does respond, by either officially or unofficially giving Ukraine access to suitable anti-missile defense or even actual nukes (this would be so great, like one of those Aesop's morally educational fables), then it would be complete geopolitical, not just propaganda, disaster for Russia. It's what I personally hope for - keep on talking about nuclear devil and it appears next door  

In other words, only an equilibrium would lower the tensions. After the initial hysteric fit, of course.   

[Duke Wellington]

2 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Not really. Russia habitually mentions nukes whenever they feel they've exhausted other extortion tools arguments. It has no weight anymore. It would have weight if they were not verbally waving with nukes every so often. 

Reading this part (it sums up the article)

I was tempted to joke about Johnson's apparently very interesting level of diplomatic skill, but this is absolutely not his fault. 

The important detail is - I think - that world agencies didn't report about Putin threatening openly with nukes, it was Russian Deputy Foreign Minister. Not a small fish, but not the head of the state either. And he gave that statement for domestic Russian agency, probably for domestic propaganda use. (Like, don't you worry, fellow countrymen, we've got nukes.)

While it really is habitual for Russia to mention their nukes, I don't think they will be in a hurry to actually deploy anything nuke-like in context of Ukraine. Because if the West doesn't respond to that, it would be useful propaganda gain (like, see, the West is afraid of us), but if the West does respond, by either officially or unofficially giving Ukraine access to suitable anti-missile defense or even actual nukes (this would be so great, like one of those Aesop's morally educational fables), then it would be complete geopolitical, not just propaganda, disaster for Russia. It's what I personally hope for - keep on talking about nuclear devil and it appears next door  

In other words, only an equilibrium would lower the tensions. After the initial hysteric fit, of course.   

The Russians arent in the strategic position to loose their trade to the EU.

Hence, this is but a war of words.

[Helen of Annoy]

9 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

The Russians arent in the strategic position to loose their trade to the EU.

Hence, this is but a war of words.

I've been saying that since the thread started. And before that, of course. 

But  there's small but amusing possibility that this war of words might result with nuclear weapons being planted closer to Russia than they would normally be   

[godnodog]

So yesterday China and Russia made a joint statement regarding south sea and Ukraine situations...

[Helen of Annoy]

6 hours ago, godnodog said:

So yesterday China and Russia made a joint statement regarding south sea and Ukraine situations...

They both want to get as much as they can from this tense moment. I wouldn't be surprised if there's also public announcement of Chinese intention to buy more Russian fossil fuels or something convenient like this.

 

And today Kremlin sends draft of some sort of treaty to Americans. I haven't seen any description of that draft in any news, but I guess it consists of Russia wishing nuclear disarmament of entire Europe and recognition of Crimea, offering they'll extend their nuclear protection to Middle East, Europe and Alaska. I'm jokingly exaggerating, but the reality is probably not far from that.  

While I wish my car and washing machine were 20 years younger. 

[Silver]

With tensions escalating along the border with Russia, Luke Harding visits troops in Ukraine's Donbas region to gauge the mood ahead of a possible invasion. The war here has continued since 2014, when pro-Russian separatists seized Ukrainian cities. But in recent weeks large numbers of Russian troops have gathered on Ukraine's border, while talks between Vladimir Putin and US president, Joe Biden, have not provided the diplomatic solution many had hoped for. (Video report)

On the Ukraine frontline: 'Only the dead aren't afraid' – video | World news | The Guardian

Edited December 16, 2021 by The Silver Shroud

[+and-then]

Vlad seems to want written guarantees that NATO won't allow Ukraine membership, now or in the future.  He also wants guarantees that modern offensive weapons will be restricted from them.  It'll be interesting to see what he gets in return for removing his forces (on his timetable).  Even more interesting will be what happens if Obama decides to act tough from his apartment in the basement.

[Helen of Annoy]

I wasn't far off   They even - if you read it somewhat carefully - would like Alaska to stop being so offensively NATOish too  

https://apnews.com/article/business-europe-russia-ukraine-moscow-6f0b3cf18eba2bfa8ec4ee6d209eee74?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

 

Russia on Friday published draft security demands that NATO deny membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet countries and roll back the alliance’s military deployments in Central and Eastern Europe — bold ultimatums that are almost certain to be rejected by the U.S. and its allies.

The proposals, which were submitted to the U.S. and its allies earlier this week, also call for a ban on sending U.S. and Russian warships and aircraft to areas from where they can strike each other’s territory, along with a halt to NATO military drills near Russia.

The demand for a written guarantee that Ukraine won’t be offered membership already has been rejected by the West, which said Moscow doesn’t have a say in NATO’s enlargement.

 

Outlandish demands are usually not expected to be met, they are so outlandish so they can be negotiated down to a compromise. 

The problem is, there's no compromise with someone who threw last 30 years of de-escalation efforts away and goes in full historic reverse. 

(Speaking of history, the especially beautiful part is that it's the transfer to renewable energy sources, something so boringly responsible and kind, that can and will help solve this anachronistic situation. But it can't happen over night, so we get to enjoy the interesting times for a while longer.) 

[Eldorado]

Britain and its allies are "highly unlikely" to send troops to defend Ukraine if Russia invades the country, the UK's defence secretary has said.

"We shouldn't kid people we would," Ben Wallace told the Spectator magazine. "The Ukrainians are aware of that."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59712020

[Grim Reaper 6]

On 12/17/2021 at 10:04 AM, Helen of Annoy said:

I wasn't far off   They even - if you read it somewhat carefully - would like Alaska to stop being so offensively NATOish too  

https://apnews.com/article/business-europe-russia-ukraine-moscow-6f0b3cf18eba2bfa8ec4ee6d209eee74?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

 

Russia on Friday published draft security demands that NATO deny membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet countries and roll back the alliance’s military deployments in Central and Eastern Europe — bold ultimatums that are almost certain to be rejected by the U.S. and its allies.

The proposals, which were submitted to the U.S. and its allies earlier this week, also call for a ban on sending U.S. and Russian warships and aircraft to areas from where they can strike each other’s territory, along with a halt to NATO military drills near Russia.

The demand for a written guarantee that Ukraine won’t be offered membership already has been rejected by the West, which said Moscow doesn’t have a say in NATO’s enlargement.

 

Outlandish demands are usually not expected to be met, they are so outlandish so they can be negotiated down to a compromise. 

The problem is, there's no compromise with someone who threw last 30 years of de-escalation efforts away and goes in full historic reverse. 

(Speaking of history, the especially beautiful part is that it's the transfer to renewable energy sources, something so boringly responsible and kind, that can and will help solve this anachronistic situation. But it can't happen over night, so we get to enjoy the interesting times for a while longer.) 

If NATO and the worlds free Governments don’t standup this time, it going to lead to a global conflict in the near future. Both China and Russia are teaming up and if something doesn’t change and soon a Nuclear Show down could occur and that will not be pretty!

Take Care Helen!

Edited December 19, 2021 by Manwon Lender

[Helen of Annoy]

5 hours ago, Eldorado said:

Britain and its allies are "highly unlikely" to send troops to defend Ukraine if Russia invades the country, the UK's defence secretary has said.

"We shouldn't kid people we would," Ben Wallace told the Spectator magazine. "The Ukrainians are aware of that."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59712020

I don't quite understand why was that statement reported as crucial, since no one (sane) expects or even mentions any troops for Ukraine. They need no troops, they need diplomatic support that will include sanctions for Russia and weapons.   

 

 

The statements by defense ministers of Germany and Lithuania, that address the actual problems:  

https://www.dw.com/en/german-defense-minister-russia-will-not-dictate-to-nato/a-60186783

Quote

 

German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said Sunday on a visit to German troops in Lithuania that NATO will discuss Russia's proposals for the alliance's military affairs on its eastern border, but it will not permit Moscow to "dictate" its security affairs.

These demands included withdrawing NATO's enhanced forward presence battalions from the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania which had previously been occupied by Russia in Soviet times, as well as Poland, ...

...

Additionally, Moscow seeks a legal guarantee that NATO will abandon military endeavors in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, basically giving Russia a de facto veto over Ukraine's membership in NATO. 

...

In Rukla, Lithuania on her first visit as defense minister, Lambrecht said, "We have to talk to each other, which means discussing the proposals that Russia has put forward," adding, "But it cannot be that Russia dictates to NATO partners how they position themselves."

"We need to solve the current tensions on the diplomatic level but just as well by putting up a credible deterrence," Lambrecht said.

Lithuania's Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas said NATO must resist Moscow's effort to divide Europe into spheres of influence again.

"We need to support Ukraine with all means, which includes the delivery of lethal weapons," he said speaking alongside Lambrecht without providing specifics.

 

 

[+Nuclear Wessel]

4 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

If NATO and the worlds free Governments don’t standup this time, it going to lead to a global conflict in the near future. Both China and Russia are teaming up and if something doesn’t change and soon a Nuclear Show down could occur and that will not be pretty!

Take Care Helen!

The problem is that I think we are already past the point of no return, sadly.