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Russia Massing Military Forces on Ukraine's Eastern Border


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19 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Thank you for your insight in the situation. 


Now the situation is deadlocked - the government cannot hold elections in the occupied territory and we cannot withdraw from the Minsk agreements, since the withdrawal of Russian troops is registered there.

Our Minister of Defense moved russian attack from the beginning of January to the end of the month. Apparently the russians will celebrate the New Year so they have no time for war.

Spoiler

Кто не бухает в Новый год? Новый Год, Алкоголь, Трезвость, Вопрос

 

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19 hours ago, Hammerclaw said:

When have sanctions ever worked against Russia? LOL back at you. Besides, E.U. sanctions against Russia are farcical. What one hand takes away, the other hand gives.

Russia is the EU's fifth largest trade partner, representing 4.8% of the EU’s total trade in goods with the world in 2020. The EU is Russia's biggest trade partner, accounting for 37.3% of the country’s total trade in goods with the world in 2020. 36.5% of Russia’s imports came from the EU and 37.9% of its exports went to the EU.

Sanctions that were seen so far were symbolic. They are meant to remind Russia there's this sanction thing and it can be unpleasant. But it can be more than unpleasant, it can be deadlier (for the ruling class) than conventional war (which is deadly only for the poor peasants who fight it).  

So when I said real sanctions I meant real sanctions. Like, not just stopping trade, but also freezing oligarch assets, stopping financial transactions, cutting off digital communication etc. 

The reason why real sanctions weren't applied yet is that they would set off very serious and very radical changes in Russia. I keep saying such process couldn't be controlled, so on one sane is in a hurry to start it. 

 

Also, take a look at the numbers you posted. What do you think, who should be more worried? The EU with almost 5% to lose or Russia with almost 40%? 

Anti-EU rhetoric from Kremlin is rhetoric, they know damn well they're screwed without the EU. Kremlin's propaganda against the EU, NATO and West in general is meant to weaken the West so Russia may appear as a more equal partner. Not because Putin or the oligarchs are idiots who don't know where their bread and butter comes from, or how long they'd last in a world without their best enemies. 

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13 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Sanctions that were seen so far were symbolic. They are meant to remind Russia there's this sanction thing and it can be unpleasant. But it can be more than unpleasant, it can be deadlier (for the ruling class) than conventional war (which is deadly only for the poor peasants who fight it).  

So when I said real sanctions I meant real sanctions. Like, not just stopping trade, but also freezing oligarch assets, stopping financial transactions, cutting off digital communication etc. 

The reason why real sanctions weren't applied yet is that they would set off very serious and very radical changes in Russia. I keep saying such process couldn't be controlled, so on one sane is in a hurry to start it. 

 

Also, take a look at the numbers you posted. What do you think, who should be more worried? The EU with almost 5% to lose or Russia with almost 40%? 

Anti-EU rhetoric from Kremlin is rhetoric, they know damn well they're screwed without the EU. Kremlin's propaganda against the EU, NATO and West in general is meant to weaken the West so Russia may appear as a more equal partner. Not because Putin or the oligarchs are idiots who don't know where their bread and butter comes from, or how long they'd last in a world without their best enemies. 

I suppose it all depends on how willing the EU is to inflict suffering on it's people and wreck it's own economy, to make it's point more than "symbolic". It won't. It will continue to talk a good act, but it's performance will be worthless and painless gestures and nothing more.

The reason is simple: basic economics take precedence over complicated geopolitics. Europe relies on Russia for its natural gas and oil needs. The European Union imports 67% of its natural gas from abroad, and Russia makes close to 40% of those imports. In 2016, around 30% of the EU’s total oil imports came from Russia.   Wikipedia

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4 hours ago, Coil said:


Now the situation is deadlocked - the government cannot hold elections in the occupied territory and we cannot withdraw from the Minsk agreements, since the withdrawal of Russian troops is registered there.

Our Minister of Defense moved russian attack from the beginning of January to the end of the month. Apparently the russians will celebrate the New Year so they have no time for war.

  Reveal hidden contents

Кто не бухает в Новый год? Новый Год, Алкоголь, Трезвость, Вопрос

 

Russians have no capacity for war. The sanctions they'd trigger would ruin them economically and they also couldn't hold an inch of Ukraine more than they do - if they were able to seize more, they'd do it long time ago. (It's one thing to drive a tank into someone's country and something very different to stay there or go home alive.) They'll have to move out of Donbass too, it's a technical matter how, what excuses will be given and which local figure will suddenly stop breathing in the process. Who cares.

In my humble opinion, Ukraine shouldn't withdraw from Minsk agreements. Elections can be organized in the occupied territory with the assistance of international organizations. Domestic political disputes (Poroshenko-Zelenski) about that will be settled once it's clear what is guaranteed for Ukraine, after the real negotiations that are apparently happening are done. It seems that meeting between Putin and Biden is what will be presented to the public as the culmination of the negotiating process. So, it will all look clearer probably after that event.  

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23 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

I suppose it all depends on how willing the EU is to inflict suffering on it's people and wreck it's own economy, to make it's point more than "symbolic". It won't. It will continue to talk a good act, but it's performance will be worthless and painless gestures and nothing more.

The reason is simple: basic economics take precedence over complicated geopolitics. Europe relies on Russia for its natural gas and oil needs. The European Union imports 67% of its natural gas from abroad, and Russia makes close to 40% of those imports. In 2016, around 30% of the EU’s total oil imports came from Russia.   Wikipedia

See the source image

I really hate it when people take "one picture is worth thousand words" literally. And not resize the damn thing. 

What was Angela supposed to do? Go with one tank from Berlin to Moscow? (I'm referring to the spoof commercial for VW. I love me some morbid humor.)

There's nothing wrong in trying to have relatively decent relations between Russia and the EU, or Russia and Germany. The relations are not too good, they're not good enough. 

The last time Russia was screeching about turning off the gas, the EU politely asked Norway how much gas they'd be able to deliver and Norway said as much as the market requires. Of course, it's not that simple but the Kremlin-made false notion that the EU can't do without Russian gas is not realistic at all. And to whom would Russia sell the gas the EU is buying? And get actually paid too? 

EU would face difficulties in case of sudden need to change gas suppliers. Russia would face doomsday in case EU stops paying for their gas.

You may insist it's not so, but the situation with Ukraine says it is so. Putin's reaction to... what was Belarus' dictator's name? ...  anyway, Putin's reaction to Belarus threat of cutting off gas for the EU says so. Etc. 

In short, thank God for total lack of diversity in Russian economy. 

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38 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

I really hate it when people take "one picture is worth thousand words" literally. And not resize the damn thing. 

What was Angela supposed to do? Go with one tank from Berlin to Moscow? (I'm referring to the spoof commercial for VW. I love me some morbid humor.)

There's nothing wrong in trying to have relatively decent relations between Russia and the EU, or Russia and Germany. The relations are not too good, they're not good enough. 

The last time Russia was screeching about turning off the gas, the EU politely asked Norway how much gas they'd be able to deliver and Norway said as much as the market requires. Of course, it's not that simple but the Kremlin-made false notion that the EU can't do without Russian gas is not realistic at all. And to whom would Russia sell the gas the EU is buying? And get actually paid too? 

EU would face difficulties in case of sudden need to change gas suppliers. Russia would face doomsday in case EU stops paying for their gas.

You may insist it's not so, but the situation with Ukraine says it is so. Putin's reaction to... what was Belarus' dictator's name? ...  anyway, Putin's reaction to Belarus threat of cutting off gas for the EU says so. Etc. 

In short, thank God for total lack of diversity in Russian economy. 

Talk is cheap, 

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Reports are coming out of Russia setting up medical centers, stock piling fuel, and essentially building up supply lines capable of sustaining a long duration conflict near the border with Ukraine.  

Hearing some stuff that Belarus would join in if Russia invades Ukraine, not clear if it's just allowing Russian troops to move through Belarus or if the Belarusian military would get involved.

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22 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

Talk is cheap, 

Exactly. That's why no one takes Russian propaganda talk seriously. 

One is supposed to read the actual meaning behind Kremlin's fantastic claims, not take them literally.

 

And aparatchiks are probably pulling their hair in frustration when their propaganda is laid in front of people who can dissect it properly. These stupidities are meant for morons, not for actual adult discussions. They're too easy to expose as piles of illogical ****, which they are. 

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21 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Reports are coming out of Russia setting up medical centers, stock piling fuel, and essentially building up supply lines capable of sustaining a long duration conflict near the border with Ukraine.  

Hearing some stuff that Belarus would join in if Russia invades Ukraine, not clear if it's just allowing Russian troops to move through Belarus or if the Belarusian military would get involved.

Judging by the counter-effect they got with their last attempt to help Putin, they better stop helping or Putin will have to have that guy... what was his name? ... disposed :lol:  

The morbidly funny thing is that Belarus is stuck with thousands of migrants they even flew in their country, with intention to push them over Polish border. If it was a scenario for a dark comedy, people would say it's too much. 

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45 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Exactly. That's why no one takes Russian propaganda talk seriously. 

One is supposed to read the actual meaning behind Kremlin's fantastic claims, not take them literally.

 

And aparatchiks are probably pulling their hair in frustration when their propaganda is laid in front of people who can dissect it properly. These stupidities are meant for morons, not for actual adult discussions. They're too easy to expose as piles of illogical ****, which they are. 

Seizing Crimea and perpetuating a frozen conflict in Donbas is not just "talk".

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1 hour ago, Hammerclaw said:

Seizing Crimea and perpetuating a frozen conflict in Donbas is not just "talk".

Things have changed since then. 

 

The rant (you'll hate it, don't read it, just ignore it... I was thinking of deleting it, but I need to vent out a little): 

If Russia was only biting chunks of neighbouring countries of, no one would risk destabilization just for the sake of justice. It would be seen as ugly but reasonable trade. 

But Russia was more ambitious than that. In their attempt to become more equal with the West, they didn't look for ways to improve their oligarchy with crumbling infrastructure. It's impossible anyway. They look for ways to cripple the West. 

And they found the way. The idiots. The panicky, racist shallow end of gene pool, whose opinion is shaped with retarded memes and fantastic tales (ranging from Muslim invasions to poisonous Jewish vaccines). Being numerous while unable to predict the consequences of their actions, idiots are always the most dangerous part of any population.

Russia is manipulating them very successfully, exceeding expectations, which is how it has come to this point, where the business as usual will have to suffer if needed be, in order to keep the democracy alive. (Weaponized idiots were conditioned to demand totalitarian and violent regime.)  

It has come too far. Finally, it has come too ****ing far. 

It's only a shame it took so long for the West to admit that this problem won't go away if you just ignore it. But no one thought Trump or Brexit are really possible. Until they happened. The only upside of these fails is that no one sane underestimates the phenomenon of Russian troll machine anymore. It can influence elections, it can make supposedly sane people take horse dewormer while refusing legitimate vaccine, it can crawl in any aspect of life of any country through its victims.  

There's palpable difference between the reactions to Russian expansionism some seven-ish years ago and today. Because today it's clear it's a part of the same agenda that is also actively deconstructing the fabric of the western society, with weaponized idiots. Weaponized migrants too, but they're not the problem of the weaponized idiots magnitude. 

So it's not the desire to sacrifice yourself for the ideals that will finally make West act in Ukraine's interest. It would never happen, that is where Putinists were correct - West won't act out of ideals. It's not profitable or prudent.

It's the self-preservation urge that finally made West realize they're defended in Ukraine too. That is where Russian estimation was wrong. The West can and will defend itself. No, not by tanks. It's a waste of armor and flesh. By hitting where it hurts. In oligarch purses.  

It won't come to that either. This will slowly creep towards normalization, because unlike the unfortunate victims of their propaganda, Russian oligarchy is not suicidal or stupid. 

 

This all doesn't mean I think Ukraine overreacted or imagines Russians amassing forces at the border. Hell, no. 

Ukraine will be attacked if there is just one turd among western leaders sending wrong signals - which makes me thank God once more for guiding Trump into losing not just the elections, as he did the first time too, but this time also that blasted anachronistic electoral college thing too. 

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4 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Sanctions that were seen so far were symbolic. They are meant to remind Russia there's this sanction thing and it can be unpleasant. But it can be more than unpleasant, it can be deadlier (for the ruling class) than conventional war (which is deadly only for the poor peasants who fight it).  

So when I said real sanctions I meant real sanctions. Like, not just stopping trade, but also freezing oligarch assets, stopping financial transactions, cutting off digital communication etc. 

The reason why real sanctions weren't applied yet is that they would set off very serious and very radical changes in Russia. I keep saying such process couldn't be controlled, so on one sane is in a hurry to start it. 

 

Also, take a look at the numbers you posted. What do you think, who should be more worried? The EU with almost 5% to lose or Russia with almost 40%? 

Anti-EU rhetoric from Kremlin is rhetoric, they know damn well they're screwed without the EU. Kremlin's propaganda against the EU, NATO and West in general is meant to weaken the West so Russia may appear as a more equal partner. Not because Putin or the oligarchs are idiots who don't know where their bread and butter comes from, or how long they'd last in a world without their best enemies. 

And where will the gas come from that warms central European homes?

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13 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

And where will the gas come from that warms central European homes?

Where does the gas which is not from Russia comes to the EU today?

Norway and Middle East. 

I already explained sudden drastic change of rates at which gas is imported from different suppliers wouldn't be desirable or enjoyable, but it's possible. 

Now you tell me who would buy Russian gas if EU suddenly wouldn't and who would pay for oligarchs' *****s' silicones and expansionist wars if the EU is not buying gas anymore? 

(Yes, the false notion that Russia is the only place from which gas does and can come to EU is the same type of illusion, from the same Kremlin's propaganda factory, which brainwashed poor Brexiters into believing "the EU needs us more than we need the EU".) 

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13 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Where does the gas which is not from Russia comes to the EU today?

Norway and Middle East. 

I already explained sudden drastic change of rates at which gas is imported from different suppliers wouldn't be desirable or enjoyable, but it's possible. 

Now you tell me who would buy Russian gas if EU suddenly wouldn't and who would pay for oligarchs' *****s' silicones and expansionist wars if the EU is not buying gas anymore? 

(Yes, the false notion that Russia is the only place from which gas does and can come to EU is the same type of illusion, from the same Kremlin's propaganda factory, which brainwashed poor Brexiters into believing "the EU needs us more than we need the EU".) 

While gas can be imported from elsewhere, the more limited supply would drive up prices.

This is how Russia has hooked the EU. If you are dependent on someone, you cannot cut them off due to a disagreement.

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49 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Ukraine will be attacked if there is just one turd among western leaders sending wrong signals - which makes me thank God once more for guiding Trump into losing not just the elections, as he did the first time too, but this time also that blasted anachronistic electoral college thing too. 

I think Ukraine is going to be attacked, regardless of what the West does. Same with China and Taiwan—nobody is afraid of the US anymore.

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24 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I think Ukraine is going to be attacked, regardless of what the West does. Same with China and Taiwan—nobody is afraid of the US anymore.

The US is not crucial in Ukrainian situation. Important, certainly, it's too big for not being important regarding any situation, but not crucial. The EU is. I think. And my impression was lately that everyone at least moderately sane had it up to *here* of Russian attitude and crapping into European political life. 

Taiwan is significantly different situation. And yes, China attacking Taiwan looks like it's only a matter of time.

 

It's not a bad thing that nobody is afraid of the US. The bad thing is that the US is not considered trustworthy anymore. There's no guarantee it won't end up with some Trump or similar life form again and then what? That's another factor that is bringing EU closer together. The possibility of unthinkable - such as America going with Russia against Europe - turned up to be real. 

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52 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

While gas can be imported from elsewhere, the more limited supply would drive up prices.

This is how Russia has hooked the EU. If you are dependent on someone, you cannot cut them off due to a disagreement.

There comes a point in geopolitical life when cheaper gas cannot cover the price of losing your entire economy, because a handful of loud neo-Nazi morons were elected by thousands of idiots brainwashed by Russian propaganda into sawing off the branch they've been sitting on. 

And that point happened a while ago. 

Regarding who's dependent on whom, would you kindly read my previous posts and put some effort into understanding them? Because I'm done repeating myself. 

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On 12/2/2021 at 2:42 PM, Hammerclaw said:

Besides, E.U. sanctions against Russia are farcical. What one hand takes away, the other hand gives.

Which is reason enough to leave THIS issue for the EU to sort out.  The problem with the CCP being allowed to run amock is it would weaken us in that region to a dangerous extent, IMO.  Far better for us to get busy, PUBLICLY creating a "coalition of the willing" comprised of Japan, The Philippines, OZ, and even India.  The only way the CCP will be stopped is by a strong group that is seen to be willing to shed blood and treasure to do so.  

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48 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

That's another factor that is bringing EU closer together. The possibility of unthinkable - such as America going with Russia against Europe - turned up to be real. 

Biden's handlers have bent over backward to help Putin get a better price for his petroleum and gas. 

https://news.yahoo.com/bidens-push-against-sanctions-russia-093008729.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-administration-resists-tougher-russia-sanctions-in-congress/ar-AARcJya

I'm not aware of any new sanctions that have been put in place beyond those levied by Trump

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/09/25/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/

In short... Putin is wealthier today than he ever was during the Trump administration.  Those are facts, not rhetoric.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Things have changed since then. 

 

The rant (you'll hate it, don't read it, just ignore it... I was thinking of deleting it, but I need to vent out a little): 

If Russia was only biting chunks of neighbouring countries of, no one would risk destabilization just for the sake of justice. It would be seen as ugly but reasonable trade. 

But Russia was more ambitious than that. In their attempt to become more equal with the West, they didn't look for ways to improve their oligarchy with crumbling infrastructure. It's impossible anyway. They look for ways to cripple the West. 

And they found the way. The idiots. The panicky, racist shallow end of gene pool, whose opinion is shaped with retarded memes and fantastic tales (ranging from Muslim invasions to poisonous Jewish vaccines). Being numerous while unable to predict the consequences of their actions, idiots are always the most dangerous part of any population.

Russia is manipulating them very successfully, exceeding expectations, which is how it has come to this point, where the business as usual will have to suffer if needed be, in order to keep the democracy alive. (Weaponized idiots were conditioned to demand totalitarian and violent regime.)  

It has come too far. Finally, it has come too ****ing far. 

It's only a shame it took so long for the West to admit that this problem won't go away if you just ignore it. But no one thought Trump or Brexit are really possible. Until they happened. The only upside of these fails is that no one sane underestimates the phenomenon of Russian troll machine anymore. It can influence elections, it can make supposedly sane people take horse dewormer while refusing legitimate vaccine, it can crawl in any aspect of life of any country through its victims.  

There's palpable difference between the reactions to Russian expansionism some seven-ish years ago and today. Because today it's clear it's a part of the same agenda that is also actively deconstructing the fabric of the western society, with weaponized idiots. Weaponized migrants too, but they're not the problem of the weaponized idiots magnitude. 

So it's not the desire to sacrifice yourself for the ideals that will finally make West act in Ukraine's interest. It would never happen, that is where Putinists were correct - West won't act out of ideals. It's not profitable or prudent.

It's the self-preservation urge that finally made West realize they're defended in Ukraine too. That is where Russian estimation was wrong. The West can and will defend itself. No, not by tanks. It's a waste of armor and flesh. By hitting where it hurts. In oligarch purses.  

It won't come to that either. This will slowly creep towards normalization, because unlike the unfortunate victims of their propaganda, Russian oligarchy is not suicidal or stupid. 

 

This all doesn't mean I think Ukraine overreacted or imagines Russians amassing forces at the border. Hell, no. 

Ukraine will be attacked if there is just one turd among western leaders sending wrong signals - which makes me thank God once more for guiding Trump into losing not just the elections, as he did the first time too, but this time also that blasted anachronistic electoral college thing too. 

The leader of the EU isn't elected by plebiscite, either and other than voting for the elite that choose your leader, Europeans have no real voice in the choice, at all. So, Trump still lives, rent free, in your head, too? Russian doesn't fear Europe; she talks over your heads, trying to threaten us. Screw Trump; he's a fast fading has been.

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1 hour ago, Helen of Annoy said:

There comes a point in geopolitical life when cheaper gas cannot cover the price of losing your entire economy, because a handful of loud neo-Nazi morons were elected by thousands of idiots brainwashed by Russian propaganda into sawing off the branch they've been sitting on. 

And that point happened a while ago. 

Regarding who's dependent on whom, would you kindly read my previous posts and put some effort into understanding them? Because I'm done repeating myself. 

It goes like this.

The Franco-Prussian Empire have their eyes on rising up the status ladder but need Russian gas to continue being piped through. If they dont get it their industry grinds to a halt and their homes go cold. In the meantime their EU got greedy (yes, they own it), launched a coup in Ukraine to expand their reach, but Russia raced in to say keep your hands of Crimea - `we have our naval base there`.

Sanctions are token gestures. The US wants Franco-Prussia to implement proper ones, but Franco-Prussian plays a balancing act to try not to upset the Russians too much. In case they cut the gas off. So its a lot of hot air being blown and nothing else much.

You really need to get over Brexit and move on lol.

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8 hours ago, and then said:

Biden's handlers have bent over backward to help Putin get a better price for his petroleum and gas. 

https://news.yahoo.com/bidens-push-against-sanctions-russia-093008729.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-administration-resists-tougher-russia-sanctions-in-congress/ar-AARcJya

I'm not aware of any new sanctions that have been put in place beyond those levied by Trump

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/09/25/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/

In short... Putin is wealthier today than he ever was during the Trump administration.  Those are facts, not rhetoric.  

 

 

It's better prices for your corporations. Just because it gives financial wings to Russia or Saudis doesn't stop your corporations from demanding more, on your expense. 

The price alone is not controlled by any president. But it's not formed by the magic of free market, either. It's one of geopolitical tools etc.

New, real sanctions were announced as a possibility in case of further Russian aggression. They weren't applied before. 

Putin's personal wealth is one thing, Russian ability to cripple its economy by destroying half of it at once is something else. 

Trump is not the topic, it's my fault for mentioning him, but he's such a perfect bad example of the worst case scenario he will inevitably be mentioned in any topic related to NATO. That same NATO he described as "obsolete". 

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8 hours ago, Hammerclaw said:

The leader of the EU isn't elected by plebiscite, either and other than voting for the elite that choose your leader, Europeans have no real voice in the choice, at all. So, Trump still lives, rent free, in your head, too? Russian doesn't fear Europe; she talks over your heads, trying to threaten us. Screw Trump; he's a fast fading has been.

There's no leader of the EU with autonomy in decision-making. While your country has the president with wide scope of autonomous decisions. The difference is that I don't care who's current president of which EU body, since they're all just officials and serve more like spokespersons than actual decision-makers. Decisions are made in constant advisory processes that do go down to the base, through EU parliament. In other words, the EU can afford a lunatic representing it formally, while the US can't afford a lunatic for a president.

Trump may be gone (not even that is certain, for shame) but the damage Trump did will linger on and weaken your country first and West consequentially for years to come.   

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7 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

It goes like this.

The Franco-Prussian Empire

:lol: 

Frankenprussia. I totally want that for an informal name of the EU :lol: 

Never change, Cookie. We all need a laugh. 

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When it comes to gas and oil the EU is less dependent on Russia and other middle East countries than what you might it is. West Europe has oil reserves that have never been explored, Portugal has oil and gas, but public opinion is very much against setting up industrial exploration. Thought many Portuguese are not even aware that these reserves exists, there is another reason for not being explored, they are somewhat reserved, and by this I am not using the word reserves in the traditional use of the word when it comes to oil, it really is considered to be reserved if troubles come in the future.

 

What I find I find troublesome is that we see Russian troops movements in Ukraine, and already saw articles about Latvia also being somewhat threatened, is that simultaneously seeing China behaviour in the South China sea and it's increasing tension with its  southwest neighbours and Taiwan. 

Is Russian colluding with China?

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