Russia Massing Military Forces on Ukraine's Eastern Border

[Helen of Annoy]

15 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

The problem is that I think we are already past the point of no return, sadly.

Of course not. 

Those who are in power want to live and enjoy their status and obscene wealth. A dictator at the end of his life might decide to take the whole world with him, in a nuclear suicide, but those around him would object. 

[+Nuclear Wessel]

13 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

A dictator at the end of his life might decide to take the whole world with him, in a nuclear suicide, but those around him would object. 

 

Or somebody who is convinced that victory is a guarantee, with minimal losses on their part. Also somebody who feels like their hand is being pushed by NATO because they are convinced that what they are doing is the “right thing”. 

I think it is nothing short of naïveté to think that only those who are looking to commit nuclear suicide would be willing to involve nukes. 

Plus, nukes today are much cleaner, so hesitancy to use them would not be as great as it was in the Cold War. 

[Helen of Annoy]

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Or somebody who is convinced that victory is a guarantee, with minimal losses on their part. Also somebody who feels like their hand is being pushed by NATO because they are convinced that what they are doing is the “right thing”. 

I think it is nothing short of naïveté to think that only those who are looking to commit nuclear suicide would be willing to involve nukes. 

Plus, nukes today are much cleaner, so hesitancy to use them would not be as great as it was in the Cold War. 

Theoretically, yes, but Russia doesn't fit that description. The promise of real sanctions works as a deterrent for conventional attack, I can't even imagine the total sanctions that would follow actual use of nukes. No matter how small or "clean". Large scale attack would also ruin the "liberated" territory and annihilate population, sympathizers included. That would probably set off serious protests in Russia too - not something to be ignored, since the most important reason for attacking Ukraine is crappy domestic situation in Russia. 

In short, actually using nukes would be the stupidest possible thing to do. 

It's not what oligarchy wants. They're not fanatics, they wouldn't be oligarchs that they are if they had principles or an ideal to die for. 

I might be wrong, of course. In which case, it was nice knowing you    

It's also absolutely fair to act as if Russian ritual threats with nukes are to be taken seriously. It destroys their image and gives Eastern European countries that are not yet in NATO a valid reason to get there immediately. 

[+Nuclear Wessel]

3 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

The promise of real sanctions works as a deterrent for conventional attack,

Which is why Putin ignored Biden’s threat of sanctions and appealed to NATO, making unrealistic demands? And that’s why he annexed Crimea in 2014 in spite of all of those “sanctions”?

[Helen of Annoy]

29 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Which is why Putin ignored Biden’s threat of sanctions and appealed to NATO, making unrealistic demands? And that’s why he annexed Crimea in 2014 in spite of all of those “sanctions”?

To be completely blunt, everyone is looking for the most profitable or at least the least damaging solutions to problems. Not the fair or just ones. 

So yes, obviously, Crimea was sacrificed for the sake of business as usual. It wasn't that simple and one-sided, but it boils down to that. 

Things that happened in the meantime (Trump, Brexit, financing lunatic right across EUrope, weaponizing migrants, weaponizing domestic idiots by anti-vax and extremist propaganda etc.) made it clear that keeping that business as usual will be extremely expensive. More expensive than affording a disruption. 

It wasn't Biden only threatening with sanctions, what is far more important is that no lunatic right wing managed to seize power in EU countries so there's unison promise of sanctions by the entire EU. Russia lives from selling fossil fuels to the EU. 

And there's the truly scary part for Russian oligarchy, the possibility of freezing their assets or even completely stopping financial transactions with Russia. 

Russia can't afford to attack Ukraine now. But Putin can't afford to change his strategy. There's nothing he can offer to his population, increasingly worried for their dwindling standard of living, except myths and nuclear fairytales.

So he simply has to keep on insisting on Cold War 2. It's all he's got. I understand that. What I don't understand are these latest demands  Hilarious. As I said earlier, it's common to start negotiating with unrealistic demands, so you get half of what you claimed you think you can get, but this is comedy. Honestly, I've got no idea what purpose it was supposed to serve.  

It looks like someone wrote it for a situation in which public opinion in NATO and NATO-friendly countries is against that alliance and can't wait to appease Putin. Almost like some poor souls confused their propaganda for actual reality. Forgot it's their own bots and thought that's how real people think. 

[+Nuclear Wessel]

6 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

except myths and nuclear fairytales.

They're fairytales until they're not. I hope you're right and that all of this is going to just turn out to amount to little more than rhetoric, but I'm not entirely convinced.

[Helen of Annoy]

10 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

They're fairytales until they're not. I hope you're right and that all of this is going to just turn out to amount to little more than rhetoric, but I'm not entirely convinced.

We've been cursed to live in interesting times     

[Grim Reaper 6]

5 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

The problem is that I think we are already past the point of no return, sadly.

Here the problem I see, the world leadership are far too focused upon the here and now. By doing this they have forgotten a very important fact, you can never forget what has occurred in the past. Because if you do, it will repeat itself and what is happening right now is the beginning of what lead to the last two world wars. Communism didn’t work and so it collapsed in the early 1990s, but now we have new communist leaders who believe they have found a solution to correct past mistakes. So the communist expansion begins again both in Asia and Eastern Europe and again the West I’d sitting on their hands allowing it to occur!

When will our Leaders learn!

[Helen of Annoy]

17 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

Here the problem I see, the world leadership are far too focused upon the here and now. By doing this they have forgotten a very important fact, you can never forget what has occurred in the past. Because if you do, it will repeat itself and what is happening right now is the beginning of what lead to the last two world wars. Communism didn’t work and so it collapsed in the early 1990s, but now we have new communist leaders who believe they have found a solution to correct past mistakes. So the communist expansion begins again both in Asia and Eastern Europe and again the West I’d sitting on their hands allowing it to occur!

When will our Leaders learn!

To be honest, the West can't do much about interior matters of sovereign countries. It can't even directly help stopping expansions without accepting to be a side in a conflict.  

What the West can do is use economic and diplomatic leverages. 

So far, it seemed too complicated and expensive to do it, in serious and not just symbolic manner, but I think the price of not doing it is becoming clear lately. 

[Grim Reaper 6]

4 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

To be honest, the West can't do much about interior matters of sovereign countries. It can't even directly help stopping expansions without accepting to be a side in a conflict.  

What the West can do is use economic and diplomatic leverages. 

So far, it seemed too complicated and expensive to do it, in serious and not just symbolic manner, but I think the price of not doing it is becoming clear lately. 

Helen I am the last person who wants the US to involve itself in the matters of Sovereign Nations, I have lived a life full of those foolish actions. However in the case of the Ukraine, and other Nations threatened in this manner, if they ask for assistance they should be brought under the umbrella of the United Nations even without membership. Economic and Diplomatic matters will not be effective against Putin and the thugs under his control, it’s pretty obvious Putin wants to return to the past and that can never be allowed to occur again.

Helen to date it hasn’t been too complicated, since 2017 the word complicated can be exchanged with the name Trump. Trump tried to destroy NATO and effectively during his Presidency NATO was unable to do the job it was intended to do. In reality the name Trump and Putin are synonymous and interchangeable when it comes to Russian aggression and expansion in Eastern Europe. Trump sat back and did nothing during his Presidency to curb Putins expansion.

Helen it’s very clear, and not only must notice be taken but action must also be taken. The only way to deal with Putin is with determination and force because that’s all he understands there is only one way to deal with morally bankrupt Thugs, and that’s by acting in the same manner they do just like another equally powerful Thug!

Peace Helen!

[+and-then]

On 12/4/2021 at 5:23 AM, Helen of Annoy said:

Blackmailing the EU with fossil fuels, while the EU is ambitiously working on cutting fossil fuel consumption down, while having numerous other suppliers and sources, can and will backfire.   

This is why I don't really think Russia will be confronted seriously if Vlad decided to take eastern Ukraine.  Germany has made itself vulnerable to energy blackmail and they won't be serious about attacking Russian forces that rush into eastern Ukraine, stop after a sufficient advance and then ask for "talks".  Crimea needs water and eastern Ukraine supplies that.    Russia will not get into a long-term conflict where REAL insurrection and insurgency are possible.  They'll rush in, take what they need and consolidate their hold on it.  That's my 2c...

 

[+and-then]

https://www.rt.com/russia/543861-us-pmc-chemical-provocation-ukraine/

Seems like someone wants the news cycle busy.

[Helen of Annoy]

13 hours ago, and then said:

This is why I don't really think Russia will be confronted seriously if Vlad decided to take eastern Ukraine.  Germany has made itself vulnerable to energy blackmail and they won't be serious about attacking Russian forces that rush into eastern Ukraine, stop after a sufficient advance and then ask for "talks".  Crimea needs water and eastern Ukraine supplies that.    Russia will not get into a long-term conflict where REAL insurrection and insurgency are possible.  They'll rush in, take what they need and consolidate their hold on it.  That's my 2c...

 

Germany is very serious about not agreeing with Russian attacks on Ukraine or Russian blackmail. I posted earlier the link to an article that reports the statements of ministers of defense of Germany and of Lithuania, probably one page back. They gave their statements together since German minister was visiting their troops in Lithuania. Which speaks volumes - Lithuania is Baltic country and should be abandoned by NATO according to the hilarious Russian demands. Etc.

I'm trying not to digress to much and keep it short and clear, but nothing seems unimportant enough to be omitted just like that. 

So, in short, the reactions to Russian demands and blackmail attempts confirm that the EU reactions to Russian aggression will be real and extensive. Two countries that might attempt to sabotage it (Russian influence in them is visible) won't matter - one is not in the EU anymore and the other is Hungary   (No offence to Hungary, they're my family too. They are about to change their unfortunate political moment.) The reactions to Belarus show (pushing migrants to attempt breaching Polish border - lol - and threatening to shut gas off - lolol) also confirm the EU can't be blackmailed by Russia.  

 

Now the gas. Russian gas is the most practical option for Germany and the rest of the EU, but it's not the only option - Russia is currently the largest but not the only supplier. If Kremlin really believes the EU can't be bothered to switch to other suppliers, including initial shortage of gas, they're making a mistake that will cost them everything. 

The EU with Germany in particular can change the supplier, but Russia can't sell their gas elsewhere, especially not with such convenient transport and guaranteed payments.   

 

Russians rushing in is a possibility, but getting back out alive is something entirely else. Keeping it is not even likely. (Tanks are sitting ducks if highly motivated people have suitable weapons to attack them - Ukraine has plenty of insanely motivated people, there's possibility weapons were acquired too.) 

Body count would be awful (after initial nationalist frenzy, beneficial for Putin, long-term effects would cause literal riots in Russia), sanctions would be real (would crush Russian economy, fast) and the more territory Russia tries to seize, the lower their chances are to keep any of it. So attacking Ukraine would be counterproductive for Russia. 

What Russia occupied so far was different, there was significant ethnic Russian population. (As seen in my country too, where aggressor was "only protecting our minority" - not to digress too far.) Occupying any other territory would be much bloodier, just because of that one factor, not to mention the entirely different situation than it was initially.  

Ukraine is better organized and armed now, something that is probably getting even better daily (it's not something we can or should know). 

But I would never underestimate a desperate man and it seems that all this loud expansionism and hilarious demands are the result of desperation. It's the domestic Russian situation (common people are losing the little they had, including freedom and rights) that is being covered with this zombie USSR trying to glue itself back together, using nuclear threats and nostalgic myths. 

Once upon the time Putin said that "the one who wouldn't want the USSR back has no heart, but the one who wants it back has no brain". I hope he remembers what he said. 

[Electric Scooter]

1 hour ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Germany is very serious about not agreeing with Russian attacks on Ukraine or Russian blackmail. I posted earlier the link to an article that reports the statements of ministers of defense of Germany and of Lithuania, probably one page back. They gave their statements together since German minister was visiting their troops in Lithuania. Which speaks volumes - Lithuania is Baltic country and should be abandoned by NATO according to the hilarious Russian demands. Etc.

I'm trying not to digress to much and keep it short and clear, but nothing seems unimportant enough to be omitted just like that. 

So, in short, the reactions to Russian demands and blackmail attempts confirm that the EU reactions to Russian aggression will be real and extensive. Two countries that might attempt to sabotage it (Russian influence in them is visible) won't matter - one is not in the EU anymore and the other is Hungary   (No offence to Hungary, they're my family too. They are about to change their unfortunate political moment.) The reactions to Belarus show (pushing migrants to attempt breaching Polish border - lol - and threatening to shut gas off - lolol) also confirm the EU can't be blackmailed by Russia.  

Now the gas. Russian gas is the most practical option for Germany and the rest of the EU, but it's not the only option - Russia is currently the largest but not the only supplier. If Kremlin really believes the EU can't be bothered to switch to other suppliers, including initial shortage of gas, they're making a mistake that will cost them everything. 

The EU with Germany in particular can change the supplier, but Russia can't sell their gas elsewhere, especially not with such convenient transport and guaranteed payments.   

Russians rushing in is a possibility, but getting back out alive is something entirely else. Keeping it is not even likely. (Tanks are sitting ducks if highly motivated people have suitable weapons to attack them - Ukraine has plenty of insanely motivated people, there's possibility weapons were acquired too.) 

Body count would be awful (after initial nationalist frenzy, beneficial for Putin, long-term effects would cause literal riots in Russia), sanctions would be real (would crush Russian economy, fast) and the more territory Russia tries to seize, the lower their chances are to keep any of it. So attacking Ukraine would be counterproductive for Russia. 

What Russia occupied so far was different, there was significant ethnic Russian population. (As seen in my country too, where aggressor was "only protecting our minority" - not to digress too far.) Occupying any other territory would be much bloodier, just because of that one factor, not to mention the entirely different situation than it was initially.  

Ukraine is better organized and armed now, something that is probably getting even better daily (it's not something we can or should know). 

But I would never underestimate a desperate man and it seems that all this loud expansionism and hilarious demands are the result of desperation. It's the domestic Russian situation (common people are losing the little they had, including freedom and rights) that is being covered with this zombie USSR trying to glue itself back together, using nuclear threats and nostalgic myths. 

Once upon the time Putin said that "the one who wouldn't want the USSR back has no heart, but the one who wants it back has no brain". I hope he remembers what he said. 

In terms of military capabilities the US leads in navy and air force, but Russia actually leads in land army. It would crush Franco-Prussia with ease. Well, assuming it doesn`t go nuclear as then neither side wins.

[Helen of Annoy]

16 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

In terms of military capabilities the US leads in navy and air force, but Russia actually leads in land army. It would crush Franco-Prussia with ease. Well, assuming it doesn`t go nuclear as then neither side wins.

Assuming Russia can find enough of tanks whose engines can be started to tow all those whose engines can't be started. 

Assuming Russian oligarchs don't decide to protect their assets by suddenly changing their state's geopolitical strategy.  

Assuming the EU doesn't have multiple times larger economy than Russia and isn't aware of that. 

Assuming that Russian economy is not entirely dependent on the EU. 

Assuming no one has noticed so far that the Brexit was indeed Russian project aimed to free Russian oligarchy concentrated in the UK from pesky EU rules and sanctions. I'm throwing this one in just to rub your nose in it. And to make it clear everyone knows where sabotaging of sanctions will happen. 

Assuming those who are in power form their opinions by reading Russian propaganda spam on social media.

 

Have you heard yet what Americans say about the assumptions? The assumption is the mother of all the ****ups. And they're right.  

Good night, Cookie. Don't assume too much while I'm gone. 

[Great Old Man]

I'm scary..

Why innocent Ukraine people suffers from the anxiety and fear? 

[Grim Reaper 6]

On 12/21/2021 at 7:13 AM, and then said:

https://www.rt.com/russia/543861-us-pmc-chemical-provocation-ukraine/

Seems like someone wants the news cycle busy.

Yea that’s what Russian Propaganda sites do, but why even post it!

Overall, we rate RT Questionable based on promoting pro-Russian propaganda, conspiracy theories, numerous failed fact checks, and a lack of author transparency.

 

Detailed Report

Reasoning: Russian Propaganda, Conspiracy, Lack of Transparency, Some Fake News
Bias Rating: RIGHT-CENTER
Factual Reporting: VERY LOW
Country: Russia (149/180 Press Freedom)
Media Type: TV Station
Traffic/Popularity: High Traffic
MBFC Credibility Rating: LOW CREDIBILITY

Founded in 2005, RT, originally Russia Today, is a television network funded by the Russian government. It operates cable and satellite television channels directed to audiences outside of Russia and provides Internet content in various languages, including Russian. Critics of RT claim they are a source of disinformation and pro-Russian propaganda.

 

Funded by / Ownership

ANO “TV-Novosti,” owns RT News, which the Russian Government funds. The network is funded through advertising and 307 million USD from the Russian Government as of 2016. 

In review, RT News presents news that is generally in line with the Russian Government’s narrative. When it comes to covering USA/International News, they provide right-of-center coverage.  They are highly biased in favor of Russia and occasionally run Pro-state conspiracy stories. The Columbia Journalism Review calls RT “The Kremlin’s propaganda outlet.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2022 by Manwon Lender