Only a quarter of companies ready for new Brexit border checks

[Silver]

Only a quarter of small British importers are ready for new border controls on imports from the EU that will be imposed in four weeks, a trade body has warned, sparking fears of further disruption to supply chains immediately after Christmas.

The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) also warned there was a lack of capacity among small companies to handle the new paperwork.

From January 1, companies will no longer be able to delay making import customs declarations for EU goods, and will instead have to make declarations and pay relevant tariffs at the point of import. Notice of imports of food, drink and products of animal origin will also be needed to be given in advance.

Only a quarter of small companies ready for new Brexit border checks, says trade body | Financial Times (archive.md)

Edited December 4, 2021 by The Silver Shroud

[Ozymandias]

Surely it is a bit late in the day not to be prepared. Christmas is the busiest time of year and one third of those surveyed said they were 'unaware of the changes before the FSB study, but would be affected by them'. The mind boggles!!

[Guest Br Cornelius]

As we say in Ireland, Sure it will be Grand.

Br Cornelius

[L.A.T.1961]

Businesses are already submitting most customs declarations and paying any duties. Its just delayed currently.  

"From January 1, companies will no longer be able to delay making import customs declarations for EU goods, and will instead have to make declarations and pay relevant tariffs at the point of import."

The procedures will just be moved forward.  

 If companies are exporting to the EU their biggest changes have already happened. 

[itsnotoutthere]

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joining-staying-out-of-the-eu-referendum-voting-intention-9-november-2021/

The research also includes how Britons would vote if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow: 53% say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU, and 47% say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, after weighting by likelihood to vote and excluding undecided respondents.

Edited December 8, 2021 by itsnotoutthere

[Silver]

2 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joining-staying-out-of-the-eu-referendum-voting-intention-9-november-2021/

The research also includes how Britons would vote if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow: 53% say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU, and 47% say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, after weighting by likelihood to vote and excluding undecided respondents.

If you want an unbiased poll, you need to consult Savanta ComRes Political Tracker Polls | Savanta: Make Better Decisions

[Ozymandias]

4 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joining-staying-out-of-the-eu-referendum-voting-intention-9-november-2021/

The research also includes how Britons would vote if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow: 53% say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU, and 47% say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, after weighting by likelihood to vote and excluding undecided respondents.

With a population size of 48 million voters, a random sampling size of 1500 (as used in this survey) gives a margin of error of 5% if you want to be certain the result is reliable. Even then a margin of error of 5% means that the true result could be the reverse of that reported: 48% for Brexit and 52% for Rejoin. As usual, this poll is presented without any qualifying caveats. 

But things are even worse that that ...

'...weighting by likelihood ...': who decided that likelihood? And based on what criteria?

' ...excluding undecided respondents ...': What % of the 1500 respondents were undecided? Because their vote decides the matter one way or the other.

The only thing that is clear from this poll is that a sizeable proportion of the British public have shifted in their view of Brexit. 

[L.A.T.1961]

2 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

With a population size of 48 million voters, a random sampling size of 1500 (as used in this survey) gives a margin of error of 5% if you want to be certain the result is reliable. Even then a margin of error of 5% means that the true result could be the reverse of that reported: 48% for Brexit and 52% for Rejoin. As usual, this poll is presented without any qualifying caveats. 

But things are even worse that that ...

'...weighting by likelihood ...': who decided that likelihood? And based on what criteria?

' ...excluding undecided respondents ...': What % of the 1500 respondents were undecided? Because their vote decides the matter one way or the other.

The only thing that is clear from this poll is that a sizeable proportion of the British public have shifted in their view of Brexit. 

Likelihood is used in many polls where previous data is available. In this case there was the original referendum vote and then the EU election with Brexit party's strong result and more recently the general election.

Real results used to correct a small survey has been found to improve the accuracy and margin of error.   

[Ozymandias]

2 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Likelihood is used in many polls where previous data is available. In this case there was the original referendum vote and then the EU election with Brexit party's strong result and more recently the general election.

If that is what they did then using past survey results to weight the current data introduces an historical bias, skewing the current results more in line with those past results.

Whatever the weightings applied, there is no information as to whether they were design weightings or post-stratification weightings. Neither is there any information on the criteria used for selecting the weightings or how they were combined and applied to the data collected from the current respondents and we know nothing of the correlations that may have existed between the weighting characteristics.

More significantly, weightings generally increase the standard error so that the +/-5% error in the results I quoted may be too small, making the headline result presented even less reliable.

2 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Real results used to correct a small survey has been found to improve the accuracy and margin of error.   

What do you mean by 'real results' here?

[L.A.T.1961]

4 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

If that is what they did then using past survey results to weight the current data introduces an historical bias, skewing the current results more in line with those past results.

Whatever the weightings applied, there is no information as to whether they were design weightings or post-stratification weightings. Neither is there any information on the criteria used for selecting the weightings or how they were combined and applied to the data collected from the current respondents and we know nothing of the correlations that may have existed between the weighting characteristics.

More significantly, weightings generally increase the standard error so that the +/-5% error in the results I quoted may be too small, making the headline result presented even less reliable.

What do you mean by 'real results' here?

Real results are actual elections with folks going to vote and the outcome. 

This is the most accurate voting intention information, even if it is using voting info months old it is still useful for making predictions when added to new survey data.

[Ozymandias]

17 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Real results are actual elections with folks going to vote and the outcome. 

All very well when the pro-Brexit vote largely correlated with the pro-Conservative vote. I very much doubt that correlation is as good now as it was in the past. 

17 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

This is the most accurate voting intention information, even if it is using voting info months old it is still useful for making predictions when added to new survey data.

Yes if the surveys are attempting to measure like with like and are asking the same questions of their respondents and there is no reason to believe that the profile and character of the respondents has not markedly changed. That is not the case and such an assumption will not be reflected in the current poll results. Since the 2016 Referendum and the 2019 General Election the  electorate has had the very real experience of just how disastrous Brexit has been. If those who conducted this survey gave greater weight to pro-Brexit respondents based on years old Referendum and General Election results, then their poll is biased.

In any case, leaving aside the issue of the nature of the weighting, it is always acknowledged that the application of any type of weighting increases the margin of error and reduces the reliability of the result.