Nato vs. Russia: Who would win a war?

[odas]

On 1/17/2022 at 1:06 PM, thedutchiedutch said:

I am laughing because I remember people being like very concerned and some of them paranoid about the same thing with the previous president.   

True. But the current President was not the one who gave Vlad Sputnik a great deal of headstart. Vlad had 5 years time to modernise and expand his machinery. Vlad had 5 years time to help the right to rise in Europe. Vlad had 5 years time to flood Europe with the collateral damage called refugies. Vlad was shielded by the previous President for 5 years. The fifth year was all the distraction in 2021. Unfortunately Ukraine will pay the price first.

I saw that 5 years ago and I said it here on UM. I was hoping that I will be wrong...but...

[jmccr8]

3 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

Well if there is one thing you can say about Joe biden, it's that he is: a clear and unambiguous speaker; rock solid in his values; and, a man of his word.  Perhaps, there's two things, maybe three, you can can say about him.  It's so difficult to gain insight into such a complex and nuanced statesman.  I mean, forthright, salt-of-the-earth leader.

Anyway, it's clear when he says a smaller incursion would be met with a lesser response, that that's a promise to Plaid Futon that seeking an easement on Ukraine land is perfectly reasonable and an invitation to just proceed when he's ready.

Anyone who thinks otherwise us crazy.  Meeting an action with a proprtionate response is insane.

Hi Golden 

With respect to who would win a war between Russia and NATO I have no reason to say anything about Biden as it is not about American politics or them being at war in any way other than co-operative allies should they choose to support NATO.

 This thread went straight to American politics and politicians without discussing one of the two principle players Nato.

[Grim Reaper 6]

On 1/17/2022 at 9:21 AM, Helen of Annoy said:

And that's exactly why Trump was such a disaster. 

So stop projecting Trump's faults on the current guy in the office. It doesn't matter who's your president, as long as it's not literal Russian asset. 

 

And there will be no end of civilization, you drama queen. And even if there will be, you can't stop it with any amount of kissing Putin's ass. 

Tap tap rap very well said my sister, that ends this thread!

Peace 

[Tatetopa]

On 1/17/2022 at 8:08 AM, Eldorado said:

Research published in 2019 by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) found that British forces would be “comprehensively outgunned” in any conflict with Russia in Eastern Europe. 

The RUSI found that the British Army and its Nato allies have a “critical shortage” of artillery and ammunition, meaning they would struggle to maintain a credible defence position if Russia were to opt for all-out aggression.

“At present, there is a risk that the UK – unable to credibly fight – can be dominated lower down the escalation ladder by powers threatening escalation,” said RUSI’s report.

But the UK wouldn’t need to stand alone against Russia. And Nato’s biggest player, the US, has an overwhelming advantage over Russia in conventional forces, Russian military analyst Aleksandr Golts told Deutsche Welle.

MSN

What kind of war? If it is an economic war, NATO is likely  to win.  Russia's economy is not huge.  Cut off their energy export and there is not a lot left.  Solar, wind, or nuclear all could cut into use of Russian natural gas.  People natter about cost comparisons but when energy becomes a strategic asset, it doesn't even matter if it costs more.  It is a hell of a lot cheaper than war.   Squeeze energy and tell them to behave.  Its a lot of leverage.

[psyche101]

On 1/18/2022 at 2:08 AM, Eldorado said:

Research published in 2019 by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) found that British forces would be “comprehensively outgunned” in any conflict with Russia in Eastern Europe. 

The RUSI found that the British Army and its Nato allies have a “critical shortage” of artillery and ammunition, meaning they would struggle to maintain a credible defence position if Russia were to opt for all-out aggression.

“At present, there is a risk that the UK – unable to credibly fight – can be dominated lower down the escalation ladder by powers threatening escalation,” said RUSI’s report.

But the UK wouldn’t need to stand alone against Russia. And Nato’s biggest player, the US, has an overwhelming advantage over Russia in conventional forces, Russian military analyst Aleksandr Golts told Deutsche Welle.

MSN

They seem to have forgotten New Zealand in that list? 

 

[Autochthon1990]

On 1/17/2022 at 12:04 PM, Myles said:

Everyone loses.  Having Idiot biden leading us in a war is a scary thing. 

He looks like every other midwestern pilot I've ever seen so...yeah. 

[+and-then]

On 1/17/2022 at 11:21 AM, Helen of Annoy said:

So stop projecting Trump's faults on the current guy in the office. It doesn't matter who's your president, as long as it's not literal Russian asset.

I've been saying for quite some time that the accusation against Trump, that he as a puppet of Putin's, was not supported by his actions and I finally found the list I'd seen last year:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/09/25/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/

OTOH, Biden has actually given Putin the biggest economic prize possible.  He okayed Nord Stream and the Democrats refused to sanction Putin as a result of Biden's decision.

https://news.yahoo.com/democrats-slammed-blocking-russia-sanctions-210125985.html

Viewing this evidence, it isn't logical to continue to accuse Trump of being an asset of Putin while Biden is standing against his aggressions.  The facts just don't support that conclusion.

[Grim Reaper 6]

@Helen of Annoy thought you may enjoy reading my friend! Please don’t let these people get you down, I know by our previous conversations the hell you have experience do to conflicts in the region. There is little doubt that Trump is a traitor to the American people and free Nations Worldwide also that he colluded with Putin and those who still support him are also guilty because they are to blind to see it!

Hope this finds you in good health and safe!

Is Trump a Russian Agent?: Explaining Terms of Art and Examining the Facts: https://www.justsecurity.org/63660/is-trump-a-russian-agent-explaining-terms-of-art-and-examining-the-facts/

KGB groomed Trump as an asset for 40 years, former Russian spy says: According to the times of Israel - https://www.timesofisrael.com/kgb-groomed-trump-as-an-asset-for-40-years-former-spy-says/

THE TRUMP-RUSSIA CONNECTION - https://themoscowproject.org

In an explosive development, the Biden administration confirmed that a Russian government agent with close connections to Donald Trump’s top 2016 campaign official “provided the Russian Intelligence Services with sensitive information on polling and [Trump] campaign strategy.”  This revelation demolishes, once and for all, Trump’s ceaseless claims that he was the victim of the “greatest witch hunt in the history of our country.” (Recall that a Trump appointee directed Robert Mueller to investigate “any links and/or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign of President Donald Trump.

 There was Trump-Russia collusion — and Trump pardoned the colluder: https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/548794-there-was-trump-russia-collusion-and-trump-pardoned-the-colluder

U.S. has new intel that Manaforts friend Kilimnik gave Trump campaign data to Russia: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/u-s-has-new-intel-manafort-friend-kilimnik-gave-trump-n1264371

Trump Kompromat Claimed: Kremlin Documents Reportedly Show Putin Conspiring For Billionaire: https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2021/07/15/trump-kompromat-claimed-report-says-kremlin-documents-show-putin-conspiring-for-billionaire/?sh=18ec85516b1e

 

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Manwon Lender

[itsnotoutthere]

"The situation along the Ukraine-Russia border is so serious that one hesitates to make a quip, but here goes: If you ever get a chance to play poker with Joe Biden, take it. As you’re playing, Biden will talk a lot and maybe reveal his cards. And yet whether he’s revealing the truth about his intentions or not, there’ll be plenty of tells as to the cards he’s playing, such that if you’re watching him closely, you’ll win most of the pots. "

Unfortunately for the U.S., Biden has never had much self-discipline, and even more unfortunately, he’s gotten, well, old.

So it’s no wonder that Biden’s White House handlers have been keeping him on a short leash. His solo press conference today was his first in ten months. The fear, of course, was that Biden would say something stupid—and that’s exactly what he did.  

Asked about Putin’s plans toward Ukraine, Biden answered, “My guess is he will move in, he has to do something.”

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/01/19/pinkerton-if-loose-lips-sink-ships-bidens-loose-tongue-could-get-us-into-a-war/

Edited January 20, 2022 by itsnotoutthere

[godnodog]

This is why I keep saying that Europe needs to better equip itself, Europe or to an extent the EU+UK need to get their head out of their butt and make sure that they need to prepare themselves as if the US was fully engaged on the Pacific with China and Europe had to fence for itself against Russia, or to EU (+UK or not) to act like NATO stopped existing, or had some President in the US say no to help for the lack of Europe investment in defense.

With Crimea I can understand Russia position, it was russ territory (alongside its strategic importance) until someone decided it just a gift to another country, I am not saying I supported Rus in this but I understand its position.

With Ukraine not so much, I see resemblences with some Hitler´s BS with bigger Russia and how they all "are Russians", so what if they have the same historically background, so does Portugal, Spain France etc with Celtic tribes...

[Helen of Annoy]

5 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

@Helen of Annoy thought you may enjoy reading my friend! Please don’t let these people get you down, I know by our previous conversations the hell you have experience do to conflicts in the region. There is little doubt that Trump is a traitor to the American people and free Nations Worldwide also that he colluded with Putin and those who still support him are also guilty because they are to blind to see it!

Hope this finds you in good health and safe!

Is Trump a Russian Agent?: Explaining Terms of Art and Examining the Facts: https://www.justsecurity.org/63660/is-trump-a-russian-agent-explaining-terms-of-art-and-examining-the-facts/

KGB groomed Trump as an asset for 40 years, former Russian spy says: According to the times of Israel - https://www.timesofisrael.com/kgb-groomed-trump-as-an-asset-for-40-years-former-spy-says/

THE TRUMP-RUSSIA CONNECTION - https://themoscowproject.org

In an explosive development, the Biden administration confirmed that a Russian government agent with close connections to Donald Trump’s top 2016 campaign official “provided the Russian Intelligence Services with sensitive information on polling and [Trump] campaign strategy.”  This revelation demolishes, once and for all, Trump’s ceaseless claims that he was the victim of the “greatest witch hunt in the history of our country.” (Recall that a Trump appointee directed Robert Mueller to investigate “any links and/or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign of President Donald Trump.

 There was Trump-Russia collusion — and Trump pardoned the colluder: https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/548794-there-was-trump-russia-collusion-and-trump-pardoned-the-colluder

U.S. has new intel that Manaforts friend Kilimnik gave Trump campaign data to Russia: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/u-s-has-new-intel-manafort-friend-kilimnik-gave-trump-n1264371

Trump Kompromat Claimed: Kremlin Documents Reportedly Show Putin Conspiring For Billionaire: https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2021/07/15/trump-kompromat-claimed-report-says-kremlin-documents-show-putin-conspiring-for-billionaire/?sh=18ec85516b1e

 

 

 

 

Thank you, Bro  

 

It's a morbid thing to say, but it's actually good that something made Putin go into a meltdown right now and not in few years, when Americans might end up with another 'businessman' instead of president. 

(I hope not, but disinformation campaigns keep raining on Americans, so it would be naive to think next Trump is not possible.)

 

That's an interesting and on-topic question: why now? 

The only logical answer is that Putin can't wait anymore. But it's impossible to know why. And knowing why would answer the question who will win this cold and possibly hot war too. 

Because it's my impression that Putin is in the offensive while the treasonous forces in the West are still politically alive and to avoid own domestic problems with putting his country in the state of war. But I could be wrong. He could be doing this right now because there's something that makes Putin think the West won't respond properly. If he truly has guaranteed sabotage within NATO, or guaranteed allies to help him avoid sanctions, then the war (cold or hot) won't be won by the West.     

 

 

 

Oh, and by the way, @and then You're quoting a professional troll. It's not a matter of political dislike, that guy is literally a professional troll. I won't taint my search with his name again, you can search yourself and see he has no credibility. It's pure propaganda you've fallen to. 

When you base your conclusions on propaganda material, these conclusions are by default wrong. Do yourself a favour, use objective sources so you can know what's actually going on. It won't turn you into a liberal, it will turn you into an actual adult.  

[Tatetopa]

2 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

That's an interesting and on-topic question: why now? 

The only logical answer is that Putin can't wait anymore. But it's impossible to know why. And knowing why would answer the question who will win this cold and possibly hot war too. 

Because it's my impression that Putin is in the offensive while the treasonous forces in the West are still politically alive and to avoid own domestic problems with putting his country in the state of war. But I could be wrong. He could be doing this right now because there's something that makes Putin think the West won't respond properly. If he truly has guaranteed sabotage within NATO, or guaranteed allies to help him avoid sanctions, then the war (cold or hot) won't be won by the West.  

Sometimes the internal motivations of "why" cannot be known, but the timing is more obvious.  I don't think it is just an opportunistic spur of the moment thing for Putin, I think is is a plan that he has been working on for a number of years.  Brexit weakens Britain and NATO.  America is divided and weakened, our usefulness is in question.  Even Republican senators acknowledged that Russia has been interfering in American politics.  Putin has weakened  all of NATO before a shot was fired by successful propaganda campaigns.  Only the tough talkers and chest thumpers think that a war starts when the artillery moves in.  That is phase 2.    Putin may have won Phase 1. Unless the West has time to shake off the stupidity and get back on track, he has done so.  

[Helen of Annoy]

1 hour ago, Tatetopa said:

Sometimes the internal motivations of "why" cannot be known, but the timing is more obvious.  I don't think it is just an opportunistic spur of the moment thing for Putin, I think is is a plan that he has been working on for a number of years.  Brexit weakens Britain and NATO.  America is divided and weakened, our usefulness is in question.  Even Republican senators acknowledged that Russia has been interfering in American politics.  Putin has weakened  all of NATO before a shot was fired by successful propaganda campaigns.  Only the tough talkers and chest thumpers think that a war starts when the artillery moves in.  That is phase 2.    Putin may have won Phase 1. Unless the West has time to shake off the stupidity and get back on track, he has done so.  

My first thought when Putin's 'negotiating demands', later the same only called an 'ultimatum' were issued, was that he's going by the plan that was made counting on Trump's second term. And Brexit setting off a chain of EU-exits. With NATO consequentially losing integrity. 

Surely Putin must have noticed that Trump failed and so did European populists. They didn't go away, as it is typical for yeast infections, but the plan which obviously counts on western immediate surrender obviously has a fault. 

Why is he sticking to a plan, going into second phase of a plan that did not complete its first phase? Trump and Brexit were supposed to be that, what starts the phase 1, but the phase was not successfully completed, the West did not implode. 

Is this noise supposed to create such panic people will turn to pro-Russian populists? That's just too irrational. But it could be an attempt, just for the sake of an attempt. 

It won't work - except in population groups that already are victims of Russian-made propaganda. If this thing escalates, pro-Russian populists in EU will be put in position in which they'll have to ditch their Russian sponsor. Because their so far disgusting but democratically still acceptable putinophilia will suddenly become undeniable, open treason. I can't imagine an average Eastern European nationalist troglodyte going against their own country to please Russians. On the other hand, I don't have to imagine, Orban compares EU to USSR and relies on Putin to save Hungary from that new EUSSR.   It's so tragicomic... blasphemous even... but he won't be the problem. 

Etc.  

I think, so far, that Putin is doing this out of desperation, not because he expects a good outcome. He's trying to get, to save as much as he can out of a failed plan. He's posturing as if he can in fact extort NATO into dissolution, while he will agree with modest chunk of Ukraine, just enough to reinforce his apparently shaking position, exterminate opposition and find out the EU meant seriously about sanctions.

The bad news is that there's a chance he'll actually attack Ukraine, the irritating but good news is that at any point he can call the whole thing off and his propaganda machine will declare his triumph over the West, which was so scared with Putin's little joke. Oh, did you see how they **** their pants when we merely had maneuvers? (And trumpers would gleefully agree, not noticing who they're working for and not believing their ally despises them more than any other group of westerners.)       

Rant over.

We'll see what happens next. After all, the morning is wiser than the evening, said Vasilisa the Wise. Apparently she was not consulted recently.  

Edited January 20, 2022 by Helen of Annoy

[Grim Reaper 6]

5 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Thank you, Bro  

 

It's a morbid thing to say, but it's actually good that something made Putin go into a meltdown right now and not in few years, when Americans might end up with another 'businessman' instead of president. 

(I hope not, but disinformation campaigns keep raining on Americans, so it would be naive to think next Trump is not possible.)

 

That's an interesting and on-topic question: why now? 

The only logical answer is that Putin can't wait anymore. But it's impossible to know why. And knowing why would answer the question who will win this cold and possibly hot war too. 

Because it's my impression that Putin is in the offensive while the treasonous forces in the West are still politically alive and to avoid own domestic problems with putting his country in the state of war. But I could be wrong. He could be doing this right now because there's something that makes Putin think the West won't respond properly. If he truly has guaranteed sabotage within NATO, or guaranteed allies to help him avoid sanctions, then the war (cold or hot) won't be won by the West.     

 

 

 

Oh, and by the way, @and then You're quoting a professional troll. It's not a matter of political dislike, that guy is literally a professional troll. I won't taint my search with his name again, you can search yourself and see he has no credibility. It's pure propaganda you've fallen to. 

When you base your conclusions on propaganda material, these conclusions are by default wrong. Do yourself a favour, use objective sources so you can know what's actually going on. It won't turn you into a liberal, it will turn you into an actual adult.  

I agree with you completely but I don’t think Putin will just walk into the Ukraine unopposed like he did to other countries over the last 15 years. I think there is still a chance the European Union, NATO, and the United States may do more than talk. Putins Aggression must be stopped and where better to do it than right at his border, that would ruin his day. Putins a bully who likes to flex his muscles but he isn’t insane or a fool, like all bullies a strong punch in the nose and the cowards back down. The reason I think there is a good chance the European Union will help the Ukraine is because they can see the writing on the wall and they must realize their next, so why not stop Putin in another country and not wait till he is on their boards.

As far as NATO is concerned they are not as strong as they were before Trump. Trump attempted to dismantle NATO during his Administration as part his traitorous support of Putin and NATO is still recovering. I don’t know what the out come of this will be, but I confidently say that it will be non-Nuclear, because even Putin knows it’s a lose lose situation. But if a conflict does occur and I hope it doesn’t because of all the civilian lives that would be lost this is what the US must do. I think the first large bomb the US drops on the Russians should have their US Asset Donald Trump tied to it will a camera broadcasting live to the World focused on his face as he falls so everyone can see how Traitors should be dealt with and how cowards act when they face death. You see a brave man fighting for a just cause only dies once, but a coward dies a thousand times before his life ends and Trump would fill his Diaper as he felll!

Oh and by the way have you noticed how quite this thread has become, none of the voices that support Trump and his Russian counterparts are speaking up, like I said punch a bully in the nose and they back off!

Peace my sister I always have your back.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Manwon Lender

[Golden Duck]

14 hours ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Golden 

With respect to who would win a war between Russia and NATO I have no reason to say anything about Biden as it is not about American politics or them being at war in any way other than co-operative allies should they choose to support NATO.

 This thread went straight to American politics and politicians without discussing one of the two principle players Nato.

Rereading the OP, does the scenario we are talking about mean NATO minus USA?

I was really only making comment on why should what Biden says matter at all?  But, does Trump's question to NATO still linger - do all the parties ante-up as expected?

Edited January 20, 2022 by Golden Duck

[jmccr8]

6 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

Rereading the OP, does the scenario are we talking about NATO minus USA?

I was really only making comment on why should what Biden says matter at all?  But, does Trump's question to NATO still linger - do all the parties ante-up as expected?

Hi Golden

I don't know none of that has been discussed as to what Nato or it's partners would do or be capable of in the suggested scenario although Helen has made some good points.

[Tatetopa]

1 hour ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Surely Putin must have noticed that Trump failed and so did European populists. They didn't go away, as it is typical for yeast infections, but the plan which obviously counts on western immediate surrender obviously has a fault. 

Like a river with many channels through its delta to reach the sea, a good plan does not rely on a single chain of events going completely as planned for success.

Putin never counted on Trump as a competent ally, his intelligence about Trump's character was too good.  Trump was useful to weaken the US and he is still doing so. 

I think Putin is a little desperate for sure, he seems to want the Soviet Union put back together for greater glory, but Mother Russia doesn't seem to be getting more prosperous.  His support must be luke-warm at home.

Trump was not reelected but he has not failed, he still holds Republicans hostage to his whims. Biden could take military action abroad, but progress at home will not be enough to heal the division.  Propaganda is a raging epidemic on the internet, it is further dividing the US and EU on every issue possible from vaccines and pandemics to racial unrest and a resurgence into the open of white supremacy among other things

Britain is crippled too and has not even come to grips with the seriousness of their situation.   The EU and NATO are definitely weakened. 

A little PR sword rattling maybe designed for home consumption will buy him more time before his citizens are fed up.  Meanwhile the cancers he planted are still growing in the West.

 

[Golden Duck]

32 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Golden

I don't know none of that has been discussed as to what Nato or it's partners would do or be capable of in the suggested scenario although Helen has made some good points.

Oh well, Biden was out today saying "let me be clear" the green light is, in fact, red.

Just in...

It looks like NATO is going all Eurovision...

Quote

Ukraine asks Australia for more 'technical assistance' to combat increasing Russian cyber attacks

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-21/ukraine-asks-aus-for-more-technical-assistance-to-combat-russia/100771618

Everyone loved the Aussies.

[jmccr8]

11 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

Oh well, Biden was out today saying "let me be clear" the green light is, in fact, red.

Just in...

It looks like NATO is going all Eurovision...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-21/ukraine-asks-aus-for-more-technical-assistance-to-combat-russia/100771618

Everyone loved the Aussies.

Hi Golden

Thanks

I knew a fellow from the Yukon who comes from a wealthy family involved in shipping, oil and gas, miming in the north and blackberry who had said that the Russians were always trying to hack their corporate computer system. Not sure that Russia will actually move on the Ukraine and may be using this as some sort of diversion as they are having economic issues of their own at this time and likely cannot afford to engage Europe in an armed conflict and if sanctions are imposed it would not help.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/12/16/russias-economy-loses-momentum-amid-covid-19-resurgence-says-new-world-bank-report

MOSCOW, December 16, 2020 – The Russian economy contracted in quarter 2 by 8 percent and quarter 3 by 3.4 percent. This negative momentum is expected to continue in quarter 4 amidst the resurgence of the pandemic, according to the World Bank’s latest Russia Economic Report (#44 in the series). The report also says that fiscal, monetary and social policies put in place have helped contain the impact of the pandemic-induced crisis to date.

Russian economic growth is projected at -4 percent in 2020, a less severe contraction than the forecast in September. The revision reflects the better-than-anticipated economic performance in quarter 3. Consumer and business confidence is expected to improve assuming a vaccine deemed safe and effective is rolled out; this would pave the way for a gradual rebound at 2.6 and 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

However, a more adverse scenario suggesting a sharp growth in new COVID-19 cases continuing in the second half of 2021 could further weigh on economic activity. In such a case, GDP in 2021 is projected to grow by 0.6 percent, with consumers and investment demand affected more deeply, and to increase by 2.8 percent in 2022.

Countercyclical fiscal policy and sizeable macro-fiscal buffers have helped contain the impact of the crisis. The general government deficit is expected to reach 4.6 percent of GDP in 2020, compared to a surplus of 1.9 percent of GDP in 2019. After a stronger fiscal stimulus in 2020, Russia’s fiscal consolidation in 2021-2022 will be deeper than in other emerging markets and developing economies and become a drag on growth. 

[Jon the frog]

Have you seen the amount of money spent reacting to Putin movement of troops inside his territories... Just putting pressure enough to keep Crimea and maybe some concession about Nato military presence in Ukraine. Meanwhile they are establishing their political présence in African countries one after the other with China without anybody reacting at all. Great plot. 

[Golden Duck]

9 minutes ago, Jon the frog said:

Have you seen the amount of money spent reacting to Putin movement of troops inside his territories... Just putting pressure enough to keep Crimea and maybe some concession about Nato military presence in Ukraine. Meanwhile they are establishing their political présence in African countries one after the other with China without anybody reacting at all. Great plot. 

Indeed, there's another initiative going on.

https://chinaobservers.eu/is-ukraine-really-pivoting-towards-china/

[Jon the frog]

1 hour ago, Golden Duck said:

Indeed, there's another initiative going on.

https://chinaobservers.eu/is-ukraine-really-pivoting-towards-china/

Yep look like EU, China and Russia are splitting Ukraine cake. I don't think any of these three political powers give a s*** about Ukraine anyway.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Jon the frog

[+and-then]

10 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Because it's my impression that Putin is in the offensive while the treasonous forces in the West are still politically alive and to avoid own domestic problems with putting his country in the state of war.

https://legalinsurrection.com/2022/01/biden-admin-withdraws-support-from-israel-europe-eastmed-gas-pipeline/

Trump refused Nord Stream, Biden okayed it.  Trump supported Israel, Biden just cut them off at the knees.  You've seen the long list of sanctions by the Bad Orange Man.  That link above shows the reality.  Your dismissal of it changes that not at all...

10 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

When you base your conclusions on propaganda material, these conclusions are by default wrong.

So, you ignore actual, documented evidence of Trump's moves against Russia based on who presents it?  Is that how it works?  I actually expected more from you.  I won't trouble you with any more facts.  They can be inconvenient, I know.

If that's your attitude though, try not to look at the most recent Biden moves.  He has literally bent over for Vlad and publicly given him a green light and thrown in a back handed slap against Israel to boot.  Vlad and Erdog will be quite pleased.  ANYONE who can read the multiple roadblocks thrown in Putin's face for 4 years and STILL continue to call the BOM a puppet while giving Biden a pass, is just an obvious partisan hack.  That isn't intended as an insult, I just can't come up with a more cogent name for it.  

Hopefully, slo Joe doesn't have to respond if Vlad decides to come calling closer to your "neck of the woods".  SMH...

[+and-then]

11 hours ago, godnodog said:

With Ukraine not so much,

 I'd wondered why Vlad would dare to stir a hornet's nest unnecessarily.  REAL insurrections and insurgencies create an effective "blood sponge" for the invading troops and in this case it could also cause huge political and economic displacements for Russia so WHY bring down all that pain?

Then I came across this:

https://www.eurasiareview.com/16042020-the-water-crisis-in-crimea-analysis/

"In February, the city administration announced that Simferopol, the capital of the Russian-annexed Crimea, had enough water supply to last only 100 days. The water shortage in one of the biggest cities on the peninsula reflects the situation in the entire region. In 2014, in response to the annexation of Crimea, Kyiv decided to cut off the water supply to the peninsula. Chronic water shortages have been an acute problem ever since.

Crimea has always depended on the water supply from the mainland. The 400-kilometer-long North Crimean Canal (NCC) carried water from Ukraine’s biggest river, Dnipro, to the peninsula. Before the occupation, the canal provided 85% of drinkable water to Crimea".

This^ seems to be reason enough to roll the dice for Vlad.  IIRC, a limited incursion in the east of Ukraine, once completed and reinforced, would alleviate this problem altogether.  I really think he's going to go for it and I think he'll take the chance because he has no respect for Biden - or whoever he thinks is running our government - and he believes he'll be allowed to consolidate the grab and wait out the sanctions.

https://uacrisis.org/en/74909-crimea-water-supply

"Russian media claim that Simferopol will have run short of water by May. Key water reservoirs in the region are one-third full, the supplies are enough to cover the needs by June.  Russia-controlled “state” committee on water management and amelioration in Crimea forecasts an emergency by mid-summer. Russian de-facto authorities expect interrupted water supplies".

Unless he can bluff his way into Biden giving in - a real possibility, IMO - then he doesn't really have a better choice.  Crimea is important enough to them to risk bloodshed over and if Biden and NATO actually resist with military force, UM opinions to the contrary, this could spell serious trouble for the region.  

 

[Golden Duck]

2 hours ago, Jon the frog said:

Yep look like EU, China and Russia are splitting Ukraine cake. I don't think any of these three political powers give a s*** about Ukraine anyway.

China gets a more by waving Yuan than waving guns. And, wars don't happen around infrastructure they've backed.