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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Manwon Lender
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Is an armed conflict imminent? an armed conflict imminent?

In recent weeks it has seemed increasingly possible that Russia will invade Ukraine. But why is this threat unfolding now, and what is likely to occur?

An online panel of experts held by MIT last Friday warned of significant reason for concern, while searching for factors that might prevent military action or limit its consequences. In general, the scholars on the panel viewed Russia as driving toward reestablishment of a sphere of control similar to that held by the old Soviet Union, and being determined to take whatever unilateral actions it wants, outside the boundaries of international conventions and norms. Those factors were also evident in Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Crimea region held by Ukraine, among other actions Russia has taken in former Soviet territory; such precedent now means “the chances of war, another invasion, another annexation, are extremely high,”

There is a great deal of information in the link below, it’s a very interesting read if anyone has time. It certainly doesn’t discuss the subject from a news room point of view! It’s refreshing to hear an Academic discussion on this subject based upon events beginning after WWII and culminating with the events occurring today!

https://scitechdaily.com/russia-masses-military-equipment-near-ukraine-borders-a-prologue-to-wwiii/

 

Edited by Manwon Lender
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If anyone thinks Russia and the US are going into military combat against each other then they are completely out of touch with reality.  This is nothing more than a rewrite of a script from 2016 Netflix drama House of Cards.

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Guest Br Cornelius
29 minutes ago, joc said:

If anyone thinks Russia and the US are going into military combat against each other then they are completely out of touch with reality.  This is nothing more than a rewrite of a script from 2016 Netflix drama House of Cards.

It would be a proxy war not a direct confrontation. Ukraine would be supplied by NATO and the US but would do all the on the ground fighting. However once it started its impossible to predict what way it would develop. Is a proxy war a war between the USA and Russia ? I think so.

All the Russian psych-ops pro-Russian and pro-Trump propaganda that has been washing over America has blinded many Republicans to the nature of the Russian threat, they some how imagine that their support for Trump means Russia is an ally.

 

Br Cornelius

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Don't know how the US would react if Russia plan to put weapon system aimed at the US in Cuba. That's make me remember something ?

Edited by Jon the frog
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Apparently Russian military top brass are starting to make uncomplimentary noises about Putin.

So he could well be fighting on two fronts, at home and managing his response to the West. 

Seems to me he has dropped himself in it this time. No way to save face if pulling out troops, win on the battlefield, or remove any old sanctions.;)

Its not often Russia get things this wrong. 

His only option I think appears to be do nothing and wait for this to die down, which could take months or years.

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Guest Br Cornelius
1 hour ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Apparently Russian military top brass are starting to make uncomplimentary noises about Putin.

So he could well be fighting on two fronts, at home and managing his response to the West. 

Seems to me he has dropped himself in it this time. No way to save face if pulling out troops, win on the battlefield, or remove any old sanctions.;)

Its not often Russia get things this wrong. 

His only option I think appears to be do nothing and wait for this to die down, which could take months or years.

Putin is fighting for his life, both political and literal. It would be good if it were his own generals who brought him down.

Br Cornelius

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3 hours ago, Br Cornelius said:

All the Russian psych-ops pro-Russian and pro-Trump propaganda that has been washing over America has blinded many Republicans to the nature of the Russian threat, they some how imagine that their support for Trump means Russia is an ally.

 Remember...years ago?  ...when everyone was saying China, China, China...got to keep our eyes on China!!  ...and I was saying ....uh, no, we need to keep our eyes on Russia?  Remember that?  Wow, did I get ridiculed for that! 

 It isn't the Republicans that are thinking Russia is an ally...it's what the Democrats have always said...

...but I digress...if anyone trusts the Russians they are fools.  If anyone trusts the Democrats they are fools.  If anyone trusts the Republicans they are fools.

Note:  I did not say you are a fool for supporting either party or voting your conscious...but don't put  your trust in any of them.  

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3 hours ago, Jon the frog said:

Don't know how the US would react if Russia plan to put weapon system aimed at the US in Cuba. That's make me remember something ?

Russia doesn't need to put weapons in the Ukraine.  They have...uh...Hypersonic Nuclear Warheads.   Right?

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3 hours ago, Jon the frog said:

Don't know how the US would react if Russia plan to put weapon system aimed at the US in Cuba. That's make me remember something ?

But you forgot there was a lot of things happening in between, such as the fall of USSR and Warsaw pact, then the perestroyka, Partnership for Peace etc.

Putin wants to go back in time, approximately at Yalta conference. It's so irrational I'm very surprised when he finds people willing to take part in his time-travelling folly. 

And if you think I'm not qualified to say geopolitical time-travelling ambition is lunacy, pay attention to what Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, chairman of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly stated in his open letter to Putin - that invasion on Ukraine would be criminal and that NATO is not threatening Russia. Among all other absolutely correct things he said. 

 

It is your right, of course, to believe what you want, but please notice that Putin's excuse which you find acceptable is unacceptable for Russian chairman of Officers Assembly.

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@joc Nope, it's not going to work. 

Republicans let Trump taint their brand with borscht. Own it. Enjoy it. You earned it. Congratulations. Hop off. 

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Ukraine has requested a meeting with Russia and all other signatories to the Vienna Document within 48 hours to discuss the situation around the movements of troops along the Ukrainian border, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said on Sunday.

"Russia failed to respond to our request under the Vienna Document. Consequently, we take the next step. We request a meeting with Russia and all participating states within 48 hours to discuss its reinforcement & redeployment along our border & in temporarily occupied Crimea," he wrote on his Twitter account.

https://tass.com/world/1402613

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1 hour ago, Eldorado said:

Ukraine has requested a meeting with Russia and all other signatories to the Vienna Document within 48 hours to discuss the situation around the movements of troops along the Ukrainian border, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said on Sunday.

"Russia failed to respond to our request under the Vienna Document. Consequently, we take the next step. We request a meeting with Russia and all participating states within 48 hours to discuss its reinforcement & redeployment along our border & in temporarily occupied Crimea," he wrote on his Twitter account.

https://tass.com/world/1402613

"We are merely carrying out training drills, and we do not intend to invade Ukraine. This is all Western hysteria!" - Russia, probably.

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6 hours ago, joc said:

If anyone thinks Russia and the US are going into military combat against each other then they are completely out of touch with reality.  This is nothing more than a rewrite of a script from 2016 Netflix drama House of Cards.

I certainly hope your right my friend!

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3 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

@joc Nope, it's not going to work. 

Republicans let Trump taint their brand with borscht. Own it. Enjoy it. You earned it. Congratulations. Hop off. 

What isn't going to work?  And ... what does Trump have to do with any of this?  You say Putin wants to go back in time...you seem to be living in the past as well.  But...and I am asking...doesn't Russia have hypersonic missiles?  They say they do.  Do you think they are going to invade Ukraine? And for what reason...other than they know if they do there are no real consequences. 

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44 minutes ago, joc said:

What isn't going to work?  And ... what does Trump have to do with any of this?  You say Putin wants to go back in time...you seem to be living in the past as well.  But...and I am asking...doesn't Russia have hypersonic missiles?  They say they do.  Do you think they are going to invade Ukraine? And for what reason...other than they know if they do there are no real consequences. 

NATO and Russia have never had good relations. Russia is outraged at 3 things:

1. NATO creeping to its border - It doesnt want NATO allies next door to it. 

2. ABM silos - NATO builds anti-ballistic missile silos in member countries and has been building them in its recent Eastern European acquisitions. ABM missiles are used to knock-out ICBMs before they reach orbit. With them building built in Eastern Europe, and probably Ukraine too if it becomes a member, it effectively means most Russian ICBMs would be knocked out in a nuclear conflict.

3. Hypersonic Missiles - While Russia and China are a couple of years ahead of the USA, the thing is should NATO deploy hypersonic missiles in Eastern Europe they could hid Moscow in under 6 minutes. It opens up a first strike strategy from NATO and by the time Russia realises its under attack its already crippled.

So Russia has returned to its Pre-WW2 tactic and creating as much difference between it as its future opponents as possible.

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1 minute ago, Cookie Monster said:

NATO and Russia have never had good relations. Russia is outraged at 3 things:

1. NATO creeping to its border - It doesnt want NATO allies next door to it. 

2. ABM silos - NATO builds anti-ballistic missile silos in member countries and has been building them in its recent Eastern European acquisitions. ABM missiles are used to knock-out ICBMs before they reach orbit. With them building built in Eastern Europe, and probably Ukraine too if it becomes a member, it effectively means most Russian ICBMs would be knocked out in a nuclear conflict.

3. Hypersonic Missiles - While Russia and China are a couple of years ahead of the USA, the thing is should NATO deploy hypersonic missiles in Eastern Europe they could hid Moscow in under 6 minutes. It opens up a first strike strategy from NATO and by the time Russia realises its under attack its already crippled.

So Russia has returned to its Pre-WW2 tactic and creating as much difference between it as its future opponents as possible.

All hype and BS... if we don't stop them they will surely nuke us.. I don't believe for a minute Putin is paranoid about nukes.  It's just media fear mongering.  But wait isn't Russia the great Democracy now?  That's what I've been told on here by many for so long.  I didn't buy it then and I don't buy it now.  It's all about Power and Control.  Same old story...nothing more, nothing less.  Those who can buy...buy.  And those who cannot...take.

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2 hours ago, joc said:

And for what reason...other than they know if they do there are no real consequences. 

They'd be foolish to believe that.  No... Ukraine's military cannot stop an invasion.  They cannot stop Russia from taking Kiev or, FTM, all of the Donbas but their military CAN bleed Russian troops and material for years to come and Putin cannot survive that kind of war without openly declaring himself a dictator without any shred of cover as a democratic leader.  My guess is that he'll have to strike now, unless Biden and the EU decide to toss him a bone but any action that makes him appear weak is not going to be accepted by him.  I think it would become an issue of personal survival now.  

He could storm into Kiev and replace the seat of government with a puppet before standing fast and "negotiating" but once the bloodshed begins, he won't really be in control any longer.  The whole damned thing is a tragedy waiting to begin :( 

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43 minutes ago, and then said:

My guess is that he'll have to strike now, unless Biden and the EU decide to toss him a bone but any action that makes him appear weak is not going to be accepted by him.

I think  your guess is incorrect.  Biden? The EU?  Toss a bone to Putin  the growling dog?  :lol: 

No.  It doesn't work that way.  They will not 'toss' him a bone...they will give him the whole damn carcass.  Because he owns that administration. 

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2 hours ago, joc said:

 if we don't stop them they will surely nuke us.. I don't believe for a minute Putin is paranoid about nukes.

I agree - I don't think he is afraid of nukes or being nuked, per-se. I believe that he weaponizes the fear of nuclear war to get what he wants, which can be seen in statements like "If Ukraine joins NATO and attempts to take Crimea by force, Europe will be drawn into a war. NATO and Russia are incomparable, but we have nukes. There will be no winners." - paraphrasing somewhat, but assuming the translation is credible, one could easily see this as attempting to manipulate NATO into further avoiding admitting Ukraine into their organization, which will give him a larger degree of freedom, militarily.

 

 

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9 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

weaponizes the fear of

Ah, the key phrase of all politics.  Weaponized Fear!  Very good my friend...thank you!:tu:

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23 hours ago, Br Cornelius said:

All the Russian psych-ops pro-Russian and pro-Trump propaganda that has been washing over America has blinded many Republicans to the nature of the Russian threat, they some how imagine that their support for Trump means Russia is an ally.

If it were up to me we'd have a massive amount of troops based in both Ukraine and Taiwan as a deterent.

However to your statement, 

Is pro-Trump and pro-russia propaganda also why Germany does not care about Russia invading Ukraine ? 

Edited by spartan max2
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45 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

If it were up to me we'd have a massive amount of troops based in both Ukraine and Taiwan as a deterent.

However to your statement, 

Is pro-Trump and pro-russia propaganda also why Germany does not care about Russia invading Ukraine ? 

It's pro-Russian propaganda that Germany doesn't care about Russia invading Ukraine. 

The most recent examples they do care: Frank Walter Steinmeier, just re-elected President, immediately calls Russia to "remove the noose from around Ukraine's neck".  

While Bundeskanzler Scholz arrived in Kyiv 2 hours ago. 

 

(No willpower for nitpicking with translations, no links, it's all in the news everywhere. Hopefully. If it's not, that media sucks.)

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41 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

It's pro-Russian propaganda that Germany doesn't care about Russia invading Ukraine. 

The most recent examples they do care: Frank Walter Steinmeier, just re-elected President, immediately calls Russia to "remove the noose from around Ukraine's neck".  

While Bundeskanzler Scholz arrived in Kyiv 2 hours ago. 

 

(No willpower for nitpicking with translations, no links, it's all in the news everywhere. Hopefully. If it's not, that media sucks.)

Idk, I've seen multiple polls like this on the last month.

Where the majority of Germans do not want to defend Ukraine or send weapons.

60% said they should not defend NATO allies against Russia

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/03/09/americans-and-germans-differ-in-their-views-of-each-other-and-the-world/

I guess I should clarify with, I'm sure many Germans care, as in they do not want Russia to take Ukraine. But it seems like they don't really want to do anything to stop it.

I don't have much faith in Biden with this either

Edited by spartan max2
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It will be interesting to watch someone else do an invasion.

But I think this particular one is dangerous, very dangerous, as I suspect if Russia has to take the plunge it wont stop with Ukraine. At the minimum it will grab the Baltics and obliterate those AMD silos in Poland.

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