Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[+Nuclear Wessel]

25 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

as I suspect if Russia has to take the plunge it wont stop with Ukraine

You'd likely be correct in that suspicion, and that's why there are NATO troops stationed on the borders of countries beside Ukraine ready for immediate deployment.

[Helen of Annoy]

1 hour ago, spartan max2 said:

Idk, I've seen multiple polls like this on the last month.

Where the majority of Germans do not want to defend Ukraine or send weapons.

60% said they should not defend NATO allies against Russia

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/03/09/americans-and-germans-differ-in-their-views-of-each-other-and-the-world/

I guess I should clarify with, I'm sure many Germans care, as in they do not want Russia to take Ukraine. But it seems like they don't really want to do anything to stop it.

I don't have much faith in Biden with this either

They've got very specific historic situation that explains their reluctance to go to an actual war against Russia. And they're right, Putin would abuse historic context to portray the defence of Ukraine as WWII sequel. 

Propaganda that aims at dividing NATO and the EU keeps presenting that reluctance as the proof of existence of the weakest link. Only Germany is not the weakest link. (I won't point any fingers, but there are much more logical weak links. It will become obvious soon enough, I'll try biting my tongue for now.)   

Scholz just mentioned at his and Zelenskyy's press conference that Germany so far transferred around 2 billion Euros to Ukraine, announcing another 150 million. That form of support is as important as the weapons. Since his next stop is Kremlin, he gave - superficially seen an disappointing - statement that Ukraine joining NATO is not even on the table yet. Contrary to what actual pro-Russian propaganda will claim, it does not mean Ukraine can't or shouldn't join NATO (Zelenskyy repeated firm dedication of his country to join the alliance), it means Putin is throwing tantrum over a problem that does not exist yet. It was meant to calm Putin the **** down, but also warn him that he seems irrational. 

Personally, I understand what Scholz is doing, but I'd do something completely else. I'd give Ukraine few nukes and enjoy the resulting sound of peaceful silence  

As Budapest memorandum guaranteed, after all. It's not just my inner psychopath speaking  

 

 

Edit: forgot to comment Biden. I see no reason for complaints so far. The US is delivering just the type of weapons that Ukraine needs (anti-tank, not the nukes, just to clear that one right away  ). Biden wasn't, isn't and won't ever be impressed with Putin. So he's all right in my opinion. This festival is an European problem after all. It's not just NATO, it's also the EU that Ukraine is striving for. The US is important as an ally, but this is EU issue in the first place. Which is why Putin wanted to play psychological games with insisting to talk with Biden first, like, let me talk to the boss. Etc. 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Helen of Annoy

[Eldorado]

Russia held open the door Monday to further talks on resolving its standoff with the West and said some of its military drills were ending, signalling a possible easing of the crisis over Ukraine. 

The comments came as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, visiting Kyiv, vowed that Berlin and Western allies would maintain support for Ukraine’s security and independence, urging Russia to take up “offers of dialogue”.

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/russia-ready-for-more-talks-with-west-to-end-ukraine-standoff.html

[Jon the frog]

23 hours ago, joc said:

Russia doesn't need to put weapons in the Ukraine.  They have...uh...Hypersonic Nuclear Warheads.   Right?

Well I was not talking about Ukraine... it's just that Nato planning to put bases and weapon system in Ukraine is more or less the same than if Russia start putting missiles and military bases in Cuba...not sure that the US would take that without menacing invasion and retaliation. They would have the right to flex muscle too and pushing for hard diplomatic negociation. They have done it before with the Cuban crisis.

If we use unbiased view of what happening, Russia have the right to be p***ed off with the situation. Yes they are Bullies but I could put the US on that list too and we could add others like China, France, etc.

Ukraine is caught in Nato extension to the east and Russia reluctance to see ennemies at the door in the late URSS footprint. Nato is already all over the place at their door step. It's a naughty place to be presently. 

[docyabut2]

I think Putin will invade Unkraine and the Unkraine president will leave the country when their government is taken over  and biden will take out ours and allies  troops and as a surrender  just like he did in Afghanistan'

[DarkHunter]

The Ukranian leader said not too long ago he has received information that Russia will invade Ukraine on the 16.  Satellite images are showing Russian artillery already moved to prepared firing positions near the Ukranian border.  The assembly areas for Russian military equipment and soldiers are being emptied and are moving to the immediate border of Ukraine.  Approximately 100 battalion tactical groups around the Ukranian border and 14 more are in transit.  Russia has issues statements recently saying they will retaliate if any attacks are done to Russian civilians living in Ukraine which seems to be Russia setting up a pretext to invade.  Also the Ukranian government is making plans to evacuate to Lviv in western Ukraine if Russia invades to continue governmental functions.

[Essan]

6 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

The Ukranian leader said not too long ago he has received information that Russia will invade Ukraine on the 16.  Satellite images are showing Russian artillery already moved to prepared firing positions near the Ukranian border.  The assembly areas for Russian military equipment and soldiers are being emptied and are moving to the immediate border of Ukraine.  Approximately 100 battalion tactical groups around the Ukranian border and 14 more are in transit.  Russia has issues statements recently saying they will retaliate if any attacks are done to Russian civilians living in Ukraine which seems to be Russia setting up a pretext to invade.  Also the Ukranian government is making plans to evacuate to Lviv in western Ukraine if Russia invades to continue governmental functions.

Yes, the US have told the Russians thats when they must invade, having been massing on the borders for months and awaiting instructions.

Interestingly, it was said they were waiting for the ground to freeze before attacking.   The weather's turning mild this week (and no cold weather on the horizon), but I guess even the Americans can't yet control mother nature!

[Helen of Annoy]

35 minutes ago, Jon the frog said:

Well I was not talking about Ukraine... it's just that Nato planning to put bases and weapon system in Ukraine is more or less the same than if Russia start putting missiles and military bases in Cuba...not sure that the US would take that without menacing invasion and retaliation. They would have the right to flex muscle too and pushing for hard diplomatic negociation. They have done it before with the Cuban crisis.

If we use unbiased view of what happening, Russia have the right to be p***ed off with the situation. Yes they are Bullies but I could put the US on that list too and we could add others like China, France, etc.

Ukraine is caught in Nato extension to the east and Russia reluctance to see ennemies at the door in the late URSS footprint. Nato is already all over the place at their door step. It's a naughty place to be presently. 

What you are also forgetting (in addition that Russia wasn't USSR for years, until Putin started trying to resurrect it) is that joining NATO was the decision of the citizens of the countries which you apparently see as Russian sphere of influence. 

Russia has no right to be p***ed off, it's every single former Warsaw pact country's citizen who has right to be p***ed off with Putin, not to mention how an average non-stupid Russians must be p***ed off right now. 

Your view is not unbiased. It's ridiculously blind to the fact that I'm a ****ing person as much as you are. You do not get to decide what alliance I want to join. 

And bottom line - why Russia should be nervous? What does it matter how close whose nukes are, if they are not about to provoke their use?  

[Helen of Annoy]

6 minutes ago, Essan said:

Yes, the US have told the Russians thats when they must invade, having been massing on the borders for months and awaiting instructions.

Interestingly, it was said they were waiting for the ground to freeze before attacking.   The weather's turning mild this week (and no cold weather on the horizon), but I guess even the Americans can't yet control mother nature!

They're not waiting for the ground to freeze, they're waiting to see how much they can squeeze out of this circus. 

 

Hopefully, civil unrest at home is what Putin will get in the end. Exactly that, what he's probably trying to prevent with this stupidity. Or he's simply not feeling well so he wants to drag more people with him. 

[Essan]

3 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

They're not waiting for the ground to freeze, they're waiting to see how much they can squeeze out of this circus. 

 

Hopefully, civil unrest at home is what Putin will get in the end. Exactly that, what he's probably trying to prevent with this stupidity. Or he's simply not feeling well so he wants to drag more people with him. 

Putin and the West are both playing games, with Ukraine the (potential) collateral.   

It will be interesting to see how it does pan out.  

[Helen of Annoy]

9 minutes ago, Essan said:

Putin and the West are both playing games, with Ukraine the (potential) collateral.   

It will be interesting to see how it does pan out.  

As someone from a country with history eerily similar to Ukrainian, I guarantee that it's much wiser choice to play games for the Western team. 

 

It will be interesting, that's certain. 

If I was betting, I'd bet that there won't be any large and openly declared war, no invasion, Putin will claim this was an exercise, maybe he'll get some promises in return for his sudden cooperativeness, may they all be broken the way he broke Russian promise signed in Budapest memorandum, Ukraine will wait for few months or years to officially apply for NATO, as soon as Putin is not a problem anymore, they'll also join the EU a little later.  

What Putin will try is securing autonomy of illegally occupied Ukrainian territories, lose Luhansk and Donetsk, keep Crimea for a while. For a while. 

Everything since that bizarre ultimatum thing will be downhill for him. When someone starts behaving that irrationally it shows he's got much larger problems than being afraid of too closely stationed nukes. 

[+and-then]

33 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Also the Ukranian government is making plans to evacuate to Lviv in western Ukraine if Russia invades to continue governmental functions.

If Putin pulls the trigger, it will be because he feels he will win more than he loses.  OTOH, his government has already stated unequivocally that if Russia is refused the use of the SWIFT system, that will be considered an "act of war".  He seems to be willing to go kinetic and I doubt he'll back down, now.  The final staging of those units could still be part of negotiations but I doubt it.  Hopefully, someone in Moscow will rein him in before this party gets started.  If they start firing ballistic missiles against civilian infrastructure, thousands could be killed and wounded.  Once the bloodletting begins, it will be MUCH more difficult to bring it under control.

[+and-then]

1 minute ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Everything since that bizarre ultimatum thing will be downhill for him. When someone starts behaving that irrationally it shows he's got much larger problems than being afraid of too closely stationed nukes. 

That was my point, earlier.  He seems to be gambling with an escalation that will leave him no way to retreat without appearing weak.  Considering the risks involved with that, I'd say he's already behaving irrationally.  At least we've seen some indications that some of the Russian military are against this madness.  If anyone understands just how catastrophic this could become, it'd be the generals. 

History is littered with situations where a perception of weakness led to miscalculation and escalation.  NATO has at least sent the message that it will not enter Ukraine against Russian forces.  If a mistake is made and aircraft or missiles are shot down by NATO, who knows where it goes, then.  Putin spent years poking the U.S. in the Black Sea.  Russian aircraft regularly buzzed U.S. warships and if one of those pilots had accidently crashed into a U.S. vessel, all hell would break loose.  

[Jon the frog]

2 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

What you are also forgetting (in addition that Russia wasn't USSR for years, until Putin started trying to resurrect it) is that joining NATO was the decision of the citizens of the countries which you apparently see as Russian sphere of influence. 

Russia has no right to be p***ed off, it's every single former Warsaw pact country's citizen who has right to be p***ed off with Putin, not to mention how an average non-stupid Russians must be p***ed off right now. 

Your view is not unbiased. It's ridiculously blind to the fact that I'm a ****ing person as much as you are. You do not get to decide what alliance I want to join. 

And bottom line - why Russia should be nervous? What does it matter how close whose nukes are, if they are not about to provoke their use?  

I didn't talk about alliance or not... or choosing or not, I talk about political decisions and the reactions that will follow... if i choose to have weapons on my territory pointing at an opponent, that opponent will react. For example, If China would put weapon system and base all arround the DMZ and at the east in North Korea, I'm pretty sure that South Korea would mass his army at the border and menacing to go in and take North Korea. Would they be the bullies and bad boys ?

If you cannot comprehend that, it's why that situation is occuring right now. Russia reacted, why they would not ?

You think they would just put tail down and turn their back ? NATO is knocking at the door saying ''Hi, we will cover half your territory with weapons to block you so shut-up and be a puppy ?'' NATO and Russia are playing chicken right now on the back of Ukraine and it's quite bad for them. Whatever they do they will be screwed for a while right now.

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Jon the frog

[Grey Area]

I think @and then is close.  I think Putin is desperate, I’m not sure we are privy to the exact reasons why, but I think it’s all internal.

I believe Putin is forcing a NATO reaction.  I think he is waiting until NATO military build up is at its peak, and when NATO members have supplied enough materiel to Ukraine he’ll have go.  When the dust settles he’ll claim an invasion was the only recourse to maintain Russian security, he’ll show the Russian people that he has doubled the engagement range for NATO to reach Moscow, and declare himself a hero.  Some busy-body in the UN will agree that maybe NATO forces were a bit close, and there were a few too many 5.56 cartridges on Ukraine soil, and the politicking will drag on for years. And when Putin is knocking on the doors of the old Soviet territories to the north, Ukraine will be a footnote.

I am interested in where US intelligence got an invasion date from to be honest.

[Jon the frog]

31 minutes ago, Grey Area said:

I think @and then is close.  I think Putin is desperate, I’m not sure we are privy to the exact reasons why, but I think it’s all internal.

I believe Putin is forcing a NATO reaction.  I think he is waiting until NATO military build up is at its peak, and when NATO members have supplied enough materiel to Ukraine he’ll have go.  When the dust settles he’ll claim an invasion was the only recourse to maintain Russian security, he’ll show the Russian people that he has doubled the engagement range for NATO to reach Moscow, and declare himself a hero.  Some busy-body in the UN will agree that maybe NATO forces were a bit close, and there were a few too many 5.56 cartridges on Ukraine soil, and the politicking will drag on for years. And when Putin is knocking on the doors of the old Soviet territories to the north, Ukraine will be a footnote.

I am interested in where US intelligence got an invasion date from to be honest.

Or maybe he will just play yo-yo at the border making Ukraine an economic disaster. The fuel is now pretty high, Russia and the US are banking good money. Why stopping ? They will just bark at each other, making money on the back of Ukraine...

[+and-then]

32 minutes ago, Jon the frog said:

Or maybe he will just play yo-yo at the border making Ukraine an economic disaster. The fuel is now pretty high, Russia and the US are banking good money. Why stopping ? They will just bark at each other, making money on the back of Ukraine...

Maintaining a force of that size and composition would be very expensive to do.  The latest info from NATO and DC (whatever that's worth) points to those forces being brought up to a capability to launch on a moment's notice.  If he decides to go into Ukraine, the only sanctions that would create real pain for him and his buds would be hitting the Oligarch's in their pockets OR denying Russia access to the SWIFT system.  Moscow has already said that SWIFT sanctions would consitute a casus belli.  Whatever Putin is going to do, I believe he'll do in a matter of days, not weeks.

[DarkHunter]

T-80 tanks, by tanks I mean entire tank companies, have been spotted moving in Belgorod, what is making this time unique is they arent being moved by trailer but are instead driving on the roads themselves.  Tanks tend to rip up and damage roads when they are driving on them so this is another concerning sign in a long list of signs pointing to an imminent invasion.

It's one thing to move tanks to the boarder as a bluff but to damage your own infrastructure for the bluff isnt something that happens.

Edited February 15, 2022 by DarkHunter

[Jon the frog]

1 hour ago, and then said:

Maintaining a force of that size and composition would be very expensive to do.  The latest info from NATO and DC (whatever that's worth) points to those forces being brought up to a capability to launch on a moment's notice.  If he decides to go into Ukraine, the only sanctions that would create real pain for him and his buds would be hitting the Oligarch's in their pockets OR denying Russia access to the SWIFT system.  Moscow has already said that SWIFT sanctions would consitute a casus belli.  Whatever Putin is going to do, I believe he'll do in a matter of days, not weeks.

He will just reshuffle his troops and do the same next winter... Even his army are not sure of it, So many Russians have part of their families in Ukraine and vice-versa, the moral of troop is clearly not high for a war. It's a political chess game.

[+Nuclear Wessel]

13 hours ago, Eldorado said:

Russia held open the door Monday to further talks on resolving its standoff with the West and said some of its military drills were ending, signalling a possible easing of the crisis over Ukraine. 

The comments came as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, visiting Kyiv, vowed that Berlin and Western allies would maintain support for Ukraine’s security and independence, urging Russia to take up “offers of dialogue”.

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/russia-ready-for-more-talks-with-west-to-end-ukraine-standoff.html

Once Russia pulls their troops back from near Ukraine's border then I will accept that Russia is serious about diplomacy. 

Until that point, however, I think it is just a tactic to try to pull attention away from accumulating more forces on the borders.

[Essan]

12 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Once Russia pulls their troops back from near Ukraine's border then I will accept that Russia is serious about diplomacy. 

Until that point, however, I think it is just a tactic to try to pull attention away from accumulating more forces on the borders.

Rumour has it they can't pull back - their tanks are all stuck in the mud    And it's only getting milder .....   

(seriously, from a logistics point of view, the current and especially the forecast, weather couldn't be worse for a land invasion of Ukraine)

[+Nuclear Wessel]

8 minutes ago, Essan said:

Rumour has it they can't pull back - their tanks are all stuck in the mud   

I'd believe it if this were the 1940s , but tanks getting stuck in the mud isn't nearly as big of a concern as it was then.

[Jon the frog]

3 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I'd believe it if this were the 1940s , but tanks getting stuck in the mud isn't nearly as big of a concern as it was then.

Well Russia is a little stuck in the 1940...

[+joc]

18 hours ago, Jon the frog said:

Well I was not talking about Ukraine... it's just that Nato planning to put bases and weapon system in Ukraine is more or less the same than if Russia start putting missiles and military bases in Cuba...not sure that the US would take that without menacing invasion and retaliation. They would have the right to flex muscle too and pushing for hard diplomatic negociation. They have done it before with the Cuban crisis.

If we use unbiased view of what happening, Russia have the right to be p***ed off with the situation. Yes they are Bullies but I could put the US on that list too and we could add others like China, France, etc.

Ukraine is caught in Nato extension to the east and Russia reluctance to see ennemies at the door in the late URSS footprint. Nato is already all over the place at their door step. It's a naughty place to be presently. 

The truth is that not you nor I nor anyone else other than of course the Top Players of the game know what the game really is.  It is all posturing...all we see is a narrative presented by the Media...and who presents the narrative to the Media?...the Movers...and who are the Movers?  The Movers are those who 'move' information into the limelight of the press...i.e...leaks.  And the Movers work for the Top Players.  And who are the Top Players?  None of us have a clue!  NOT A SINGLE CLUE.  All we have is a Media Narrative...and usually media narratives are for moving the publics eyes to a different pod...and when it is all said and done, the posturing of the Top Players will accomplish whatever agenda they had.  One thing though we can be almost certain of...the Top Players are not in the White House or the Kremlin.

What the hell is an  unbiased view?  There is no such thing.  The fact that you are presenting media narrative of something you know absolutely nothing about should give you pause.  It is ALL biased view Jon.

[Jon the frog]

1 hour ago, joc said:

The truth is that not you nor I nor anyone else other than of course the Top Players of the game know what the game really is.  It is all posturing...all we see is a narrative presented by the Media...and who presents the narrative to the Media?...the Movers...and who are the Movers?  The Movers are those who 'move' information into the limelight of the press...i.e...leaks.  And the Movers work for the Top Players.  And who are the Top Players?  None of us have a clue!  NOT A SINGLE CLUE.  All we have is a Media Narrative...and usually media narratives are for moving the publics eyes to a different pod...and when it is all said and done, the posturing of the Top Players will accomplish whatever agenda they had.  One thing though we can be almost certain of...the Top Players are not in the White House or the Kremlin.

What the hell is an  unbiased view?  There is no such thing.  The fact that you are presenting media narrative of something you know absolutely nothing about should give you pause.  It is ALL biased view Jon.

Would have say ''no partisanship view''...  In any case, Russia and the US have made a lot of money with that crisis, oil prices are soaring high. Got some friends in the military, some was in Poland and Ukraine in the past year. Had some Ukrainian colleagues who were screwed bad in 2014 and had to go home to sort stuff out and relocating his familly, demanding new visa because of citizenship mess. The media talk s**t a lot, propaganda full blown from each sides. I'm just talking about a geopolitical perspective. We have seen that kind of stuff happen before and it's never a clear situation always a murky one. So it's quite important to look at both side of that mess before jumping conclusions...

Ukraine seduced by the west is not a hard task, it's quite greener there. Russian is an oligarch controlled fallen empire that creep on his lost grounds but still a big dog with plenty of teeth. Chossing between the two is a dangerous task. In any case, if you do a move that's blatantly clear that it will anger a neighbors, you cannot be angry that your neighbors react and starting pointing fingers only at him... 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Jon the frog