Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[Helen of Annoy]

4 minutes ago, joc said:

the more the victim fights back, the more ruthless and determined the perpetrator becomes.   

I hope you're not suggesting victims should not fight back. 

Especially since the victim is the whole world and the perpetrator is increasingly isolated little psycho. 

[L.A.T.1961]

Foreign Correspondent 

 

 

[Abramelin]

2 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

I hope you're not suggesting victims should not fight back. 

Especially since the victim is the whole world and the perpetrator is increasingly isolated little psycho. 

Of course Joc is not suggesting that.

But remember what I posted about Putin chasing a rat into a corner in his youth, and how he 'learned' from the experience.

[+joc]

6 minutes ago, F3SS said:

Some say we underestimate Putin. I know it's not over yet but history shows the most feared dictators are just men. Hitler hid and killed himself, Saddamn hid in a hole all alone. 

The truth is Hitler killed himself...after he lost everything to the Allied Forces!  Saddam hid in a hole...after he lost everything during the Shock and Awe Invasion.

What has Putin lost?  Nothing!  If history shows anything about feared dictators, it is WHY they were feared...because they were ruthless and anything or anyone that stood in their way, they destroyed.  Had Ukraine become a member of NATO...Russia would have never invaded.  It is a window of opportunity to do a lot of things with virtually no military consequence.  This isn't a 'contest'.  This is war and Russia will be victorious.   I don't want them to.  I want them to be humiliated and for Putin to die in the process.  But wishful thinking doesn't have much to do with reality.  What better training exercise for war could there be than an actual war?  

[L.A.T.1961]

Russia invades Ukraine: Furious Russian president reportedly 'holed up in mountain lair'

"The Russians are in shock of the fierce resistance they have encountered," Terras said. He claimed the report shows they don't have a "tactical plan" to take a Ukraine that is fighting back, stating that the entire invasion plan relied on "sowing panic among civilians and armed forces and forcing (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy to flee".

According to Terras, Putin was holed up in his "lair in the Urals", and brought Russian oligarchs with him so they couldn't flee the country.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-invades-ukraine-furious-russian-president-reportedly-holed-up-in-mountain-lair/NZT7M77YGRNSF544R2PTDPDL6Q/

 

[DarkHunter]

22 minutes ago, F3SS said:

Tanks are scary but they're looking kind of outdated as a strong-point right now. They're being taken out left and right from the ground with a shoulder weopon. 

It's not that Russian tanks, or even tanks as a concept/fighting vehicle, are outdated its largely due to bad tactics and limitations of the battalion tactical group which Russia uses.

Essentially the main issue is that the battalion tactical group has between 600 to 800 soldiers in it but only 200 are infantry while having on average 10 tanks and 40 other armored vehicles.  Essentially the battalion tactical group generally lacks the required infantry to provide cover and support to the vehicles while also lacking the infantry to engage in urban combat.  In open terrain the speed and maneuverability of the battalion tactical group is useful as it allows it to respond quickly, exploit holes in defensive lines, and rapidly advance but once it hits a determined dug in defender it doesnt work out too well.

There are also issues in the Russian command with corruption and mobilization.  Basically to sum up the issue instead of getting into a long rant the Russian military has severe issues with large scale mobilization.  Generally only a fraction of a unit would be called up so the commanders could cherry pick their best soldiers to send and only focus on training and equipping them while siphoning off funds meant for the rest of the unit.  When the whole unit gets called up cant cherry pick anymore and now the commander has a handful of well trained soldiers and a bunch who have no idea what they are doing.  Not knowing what they are doing they make massive tactical errors, like leaving tanks with no infantry support which allows Ukranian infantry to get close and target Russian tanks freely.

Edited February 27, 2022 by DarkHunter

[Guest Br Cornelius]

The nature of the defense suggests that Ukraine is benefiting from the full military intelligence the NATO and have an unlimited supply of weapons from NATO members, I think Putin is not prepared for a highly motivated highly supply and highly aware resistance. There are massive consequences and unless Putin declares that NATO is actively involved in the war he is cornered on how to esculate without losing all of his prime land army.

NATO has been preparing for exactly this scenario for over a decade.

Br Cornelius

Edited February 27, 2022 by Br Cornelius

[F3SS]

6 minutes ago, joc said:

The truth is Hitler killed himself...after he lost everything to the Allied Forces!  Saddam hid in a hole...after he lost everything during the Shock and Awe Invasion.

What has Putin lost?  Nothing!  If history shows anything about feared dictators, it is WHY they were feared...because they were ruthless and anything or anyone that stood in their way, they destroyed.  Had Ukraine become a member of NATO...Russia would have never invaded.  It is a window of opportunity to do a lot of things with virtually no military consequence.  This isn't a 'contest'.  This is war and Russia will be victorious.   I don't want them to.  I want them to be humiliated and for Putin to die in the process.  But wishful thinking doesn't have much to do with reality.  What better training exercise for war could there be than an actual war?  

I know. My point was that in the end they're all just self absorbed mortal men. 

I don't know about that last point though. I wouldn't think that the best way to train me for an NFL game is to throw me in the middle of the superbowl to show em what I got. I'd get killed. I know nothing can ever prepare you for the real deal though, whatever that may be. 

[L.A.T.1961]

6 minutes ago, Br Cornelius said:

The nature of the defense suggests that Ukraine is benefiting from the full military intelligence the NATO and have an unlimited supply of weapons from NATO members, I think Putin is not prepared for a highly motivated highly supply and highly aware resistance. There are massive consequences and unless Putin declares that NATO is actively involved in the war he is cornered on how to esculate without losing all of his prime land army.

Br Cornelius

Its why he is shouting about nuke's its his last hope of dissuading his pro Ukraine opponents. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by L.A.T.1961

[Helen of Annoy]

All right, I bet it will be Sergey Shoigu, in the bunker in Ural, with pistol. 

[DarkHunter]

Belarus just had its train network hacked about an hour ago and no trains are currently moving in Belarus, seems it will be delaying Belarusian troops being sent to Kyiv a bit.

[DarkHunter]

Rumors that after high losses, including the loss of the Chenchen general a large amount of the Chenchens have left Ukraine and went back across the border, I'm guessing to Belarus.

[ExpandMyMind]

29 minutes ago, joc said:

Is it possible to be the head of a Totalitarian State and NOT be a psychopath?  But...psychopathy is not the same thing as being insane.  Psychopaths are calculating, often times brilliant individuals...the main problem with those people is a lack of conscience.  Works well if your desire is to control other people...you are not weighted down by how anyone might think or feel about it all...and...in many if cases of psychopathy and murder...the more the victim fights back, the more ruthless and determined the perpetrator becomes.   

I imagine it is possible, yes.

But I’m sure that if you studied them, you’d find a similar percentage of psychopaths in totalitarian leadership roles as you find as CEOs of corporations. Psychopaths seem to gravitate towards and fare well in such roles.

[ExpandMyMind]

17 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

It's not that Russian tanks, or even tanks as a concept/fighting vehicle, are outdated its largely due to bad tactics and limitations of the battalion tactical group which Russia uses.

Essentially the main issue is that the battalion tactical group has between 600 to 800 soldiers in it but only 200 are infantry while having on average 10 tanks and 40 other armored vehicles.  Essentially the battalion tactical group generally lacks the required infantry to provide cover and support to the vehicles while also lacking the infantry to engage in urban combat.  In open terrain the speed and maneuverability of the battalion tactical group is useful as it allows it to respond quickly, exploit holes in defensive lines, and rapidly advance but once it hits a determined dug in defender it doesnt work out too well.

There are also issues in the Russian command with corruption and mobilization.  Basically to sum up the issue instead of getting into a long rant the Russian military has severe issues with large scale mobilization.  Generally only a fraction of a unit would be called up so the commanders could cherry pick their best soldiers to send and only focus on training and equipping them while siphoning off funds meant for the rest of the unit.  When the whole unit gets called up cant cherry pick anymore and now the commander has a handful of well trained soldiers and a bunch who have no idea what they are doing.  Not knowing what they are doing they make massive tactical errors, like leaving tanks with no infantry support which allows Ukranian infantry to get close and target Russian tanks freely.

I’d actually suggest that it’s the lack of air superiority that makes tanks weak on a battlefield.

Not that I know what I’m talking about. Just what I’ve read elsewhere.

[Abramelin]

58 minutes ago, Abramelin said:

I just remembered: Taliban is the Afghan word for students...

Is this a coded call?

In the link the Taliban appear to be 'worried' about the fate of Afghan students and civilians.

But the only Afghan civilians living in Ukraine are refugees from the Taliban regime.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/25/afghan-refugee-russia-ukraine-war-putin/

Something smells fishy here.

Edited to add as a reminder:

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Abramelin

[DarkHunter]

7 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

I’d actually suggest that it’s the lack of air superiority that makes tanks weak on a battlefield.

Not that I know what I’m talking about. Just what I’ve read elsewhere.

Lacking air superiority would hurt Russia generally but not so much in this case due to the severely limited number of Ukranian aircraft.  Ukraine had less than 100 jets, of which not all were capable of ground attack, before Russia invaded.  Russia not being able to get air superiority is more due to Ukranian S-300s and various other ground based anti-air systems then the Ukranian airforce.

Most of the Russian tanks have been destroyed by javelins and nlaw missiles fired by infantry which suggest Russia isnt providing adequate infantry cover to its vehicles.

Edited February 27, 2022 by DarkHunter

[ExpandMyMind]

1 minute ago, DarkHunter said:

Lacking air superiority would hurt Russia generally but not so much in this case due to the severely limited number of Ukranian aircraft.  Ukraine had less than 100 jets, of which not all were capable of ground attack, before Russia invaded.  Russia not being able to get air superiority is more due to Ukranian S-300s and various other ground based anti-air systems then the Ukranian airforce.

Most of the Russian tanks have been destroyed by javelins and nlaw missiles fired by infantry which suggest Russia isnt providing adequate infantry cover to its vehicles.

I meant that air superiority would be needed to pinpoint targets and report troop movements. One without the other isn’t anywhere near as effective.

[+susieice]

1 hour ago, jmccr8 said:

I just got a notice on my phone that Canada has closed it's airspace to Russian flights and will not be allowed to land here.

I just saw where the EU as a whole has now closed it's airspace to Russian flights including private flights. Many individual countries had already done this but now it's all EU airspace from Finland to Greece.

[Guest Br Cornelius]

RT is banned in the EU.

Br Cornelius

[Buzz_Light_Year]

Well the conflict isn't popular in Russia. I was watching Euronews and they said around 3,000 people have been arrested in cities across Russia protesting the war.

 

[DarkHunter]

7 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

I meant that air superiority would be needed to pinpoint targets and report troop movements. One without the other isn’t anywhere near as effective.

That starts getting into other issues.  Air superiority would help in being able to identify targets and track troop movements but that wouldn't help Russia much in this case.  Another one of the flaws of the battalion tactical group is that it generally only has one communication unit per battalion tactical group generally, assuming I'm remembering correctly.  In the invasion of Ukraine to keep on the time tables and avoid congestion and bottlenecks the Russians have decides to disperse the battalion tactical groups for quicker movement.  For example if it gets broken up into its 4 composite companies, only one of the four will have communication ability with the rest of the Russian command structure.  Even with air superiority they wont be able to communicate effectively anyway.

[odas]

3 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Well the conflict isn't popular in Russia. I was watching Euronews and they said around 3,000 people have been arrested in cities across Russia protesting the war.

 

Yes. This is also a reminder that we should not judge all because of the actions of a few or because of the ruling elite. The protesting Russians show way more courage than Putin will ever have.

[jmccr8]

10 minutes ago, susieice said:

I just saw where the EU as a whole has now closed it's airspace to Russian flights including private flights. Many individual countries had already done this but now it's all EU airspace from Finland to Greece.

Hi Susieice

They should tear up railroads that cross borders as well.

[+Hammerclaw]

35 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

I’d actually suggest that it’s the lack of air superiority that makes tanks weak on a battlefield.

Not that I know what I’m talking about. Just what I’ve read elsewhere.

Not from asymmetric warfare using portable, one or two-man antitank munitions, generously supplied by a willing US Administration. Apparently, they were supplied with antiaircraft munitions as well.

It doesn't say much for the esprit de corps of the Russian military, if they have to be lied to and tricked into going into combat.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Hammerclaw

[DarkHunter]

Sweden announced they will be delivering 5,000 anti-tank weapons, 5,000 body armor sets, 5,000 helmets, and 135,000 field rations to Ukraine.