Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[Silver]

34 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Just join Reddit lol

What is Reddit? Is it a forum?

[DarkHunter]

3 minutes ago, and then said:

ANY action that gives him a realistic reason to use tactical nukes, is a BAD action that should be avoided.

I doubt Putin would use tactical nuclear weapons to defend Belarus.  While Russia has changed their nuclear doctrine it is still mostly defensive in nature.  Even then using tactical nuclear weapons probably wouldn't result in NATO using tactical or strategic nuclear weapon, we got conventional explosives comparable to tactical nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them, but what it would open up are strikes throughout the Russian homeland and the attempted neutralizing of all of Russia's nuclear capability before more could be used.

7 minutes ago, and then said:

It appears that he is hell-bent on taking Ukraine and short of NATO combat forces stopping him, he will succeed in his mission.

It's not so clear that Putin will succeed.  History is full of cases where on paper a nation who completely outclasses another nation militarily loses the war.  Even then a lot of Russia's advantages are only on paper.  For example they got more tanks but they cant keep them filled with fuel or maneuver them correctly.  Miles outside of Kiev there are hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles stretching for miles on the roads and they have been there for a few days in a nice straight line cause Russia is having problems moving them into position.  Captured Russian troops are complaining how they had no fuel or food.  The majority of the Russian troops so far have been poorly trained and of low moral, barely capable of even doing basic combat maneuvers.  The invasion is going into day 5 and Russia has captured no major cities or even been able to neutralize an airforce that had less than 100 aircraft.  Ukraine very well might be able to win.

16 minutes ago, and then said:

The issue he's going to have is "what does success look like"?  He can't leave roughly half of his entire available military force in place for years to control a nation that will be forever hostile to his troops. 

Russia doesnt have over half of his entire military involved in Ukraine, he has a relatively small fraction.  The issue is bad reporting from western media.  The Russian military has over 1 million active personnel and around 2 million reserve personnel.  The amount dedicated to Ukraine is about 200,000.  What they do have dedicated in a high percentage, I think it's about 75% are battalion tactical groups but those do not make up the entirety of the Russian military.

[+and-then]

9 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Even then using tactical nuclear weapons probably wouldn't result in NATO using tactical or strategic nuclear weapon, we got conventional explosives comparable to tactical nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them, but what it would open up are strikes throughout the Russian homeland and the attempted neutralizing of all of Russia's nuclear capability before more could be used.

That attempt could lead to a massive miscalculation.  The day may come when he tries it anyway but that day isn't today, IMO.  Ukraine is at best a slow-bleeding wound for his military and it will drain him of resources.  Taking chances on his sanity in the use of nukes just isn't a place I'd trust to go.

[+and-then]

15 minutes ago, The Silver Shroud said:

What is Reddit? Is it a forum?

Think of it as a "forum of forums".  It can get pretty wild there at times.

[DarkHunter]

In Sumy an entire Russian outpost was found by civilians but there were no Russian soldiers there.  Vehicles and equipment were there but not a single soldier.  A lot of speculation going on online if it is desertion or severe confusion among the Russian ranks.

[ExpandMyMind]

1 hour ago, ExpandMyMind said:

All true, but ffs lad, can you not leave your partisan ****e out of the conversation for even one day?

It’s seriously getting ridiculous. Nobody cares. If you want to have a dig at Conservatives or Brexiteers, create a new thread and shout to your heart’s content.

I’ve spent far more time than I care to admit arguing with half the posters in this thread. If I can hold my water, so can you.

• New satellite images show a Russian military convoy that has reached the outskirts of Kyiv is more than 40 miles long.

[ExpandMyMind]

42 minutes ago, The Silver Shroud said:

What is Reddit? Is it a forum?

Please tell me you’re joking.

https://reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/

[DarkHunter]

Alleged video of Russian soldiers near Sumy who have abandoned their vehicles and equipment and have decided to march back to Russia.

 

Another twitter post of alleged intercepted text communications from a Russian soldier.  Not sure if its legitimate but if it is then ther situation is far worse for Russia then what even Ukraine is saying.  This is an unconfirmed and highly suspect interception but it's interesting none the less, obviously translated into english and if legitimate there seems to of been edits added in for clarification.

 

I am a big suspicious on how legitimate that is but it does fit in with what is happening on the ground it seems.

[+susieice]

The size of the Russian convoy heading to Kiev varies in different reports. But it is really huge. I'm sure the Ukranians know it's coming and keeping a close watch on it. The time to prepare is now.

https://ukrainecrisis.org/820440644-satellite-images-show-huge-convoy-of-russian-troops-near-kyiv

https://www.sfgate.com/world/article/satellites-show-Russian-convoy-in-Ukraine-16951364.php

https://www.trtworld.com/europe/live-blog-russian-military-convoy-north-of-kiev-stretches-for-64-km-55174

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/satellite-photos-show-massive-convoy-approaching-kyiv/

[DarkHunter]

1 minute ago, susieice said:

The size of the Russian convoy heading to Kiev varies in different reports. But it is really huge. I'm sure the Ukranians know it's coming and keeping a close watch on it. The time to prepare is now.

https://ukrainecrisis.org/820440644-satellite-images-show-huge-convoy-of-russian-troops-near-kyiv

https://www.sfgate.com/world/article/satellites-show-Russian-convoy-in-Ukraine-16951364.php

https://www.trtworld.com/europe/live-blog-russian-military-convoy-north-of-kiev-stretches-for-64-km-55174

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/satellite-photos-show-massive-convoy-approaching-kyiv/

I suspect in a few hours to a day or two the convoy is going to get hit and hit hard.  Smaller convoys have been getting completely destroyed by ambushes and drones.  Hearing and seeing more reports and videos of TB2 drones hitting Russian anti-air vehicles and I think a lot of them are near Kyiv.  I highly suspect this long convoy is about to be burning wreckage in the near future.

[+susieice]

3 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

I suspect in a few hours to a day or two the convoy is going to get hit and hit hard.  Smaller convoys have been getting completely destroyed by ambushes and drones.  Hearing and seeing more reports and videos of TB2 drones hitting Russian anti-air vehicles and I think a lot of them are near Kyiv.  I highly suspect this long convoy is about to be burning wreckage in the near future.

I sure hope you're right DarkHunter. You've been pretty right so far. 

[+susieice]

54 minutes ago, and then said:

That attempt could lead to a massive miscalculation.  The day may come when he tries it anyway but that day isn't today, IMO.  Ukraine is at best a slow-bleeding wound for his military and it will drain him of resources.  Taking chances on his sanity in the use of nukes just isn't a place I'd trust to go.

He's not going to start whipping out nukes. His brains aren't what they should be but he knows what he's going through now and that a move like that will really pin him to the wall, along with Russia, for the rest of time.

[F3SS]

23 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Alleged video of Russian soldiers near Sumy who have abandoned their vehicles and equipment and have decided to march back to Russia.

How epic would it be if this 40 mile tank convoy pulls up, gets out with their hands up. No shots fired. Let's hope. 

[F3SS]

Are there any functional aircraft in Ukraine yet? Thought there were. These convoys have been on the news all day, clear satellite imagery on the news. There's no way the locations are unknown. These lines are perfect for a carpet bombing or something. 

Somebody school me in the arts of war. Why is this not happening? 

[+and-then]

1 minute ago, F3SS said:

Are there any functional aircraft in Ukraine yet? Thought there were. These convoys have been on the news all day, clear satellite imagery on the news. There's no way the locations are unknown. These lines are perfect for a carpet bombing or something. 

Somebody school me in the arts of war. Why is this not happening? 

My guess is it's because the convoy has air defense vehicles giving them cover.  If that isn't the case then Ukraine would certainly be taking advantage of these massed units.  

[F3SS]

6 minutes ago, and then said:

My guess is it's because the convoy has air defense vehicles giving them cover.  If that isn't the case then Ukraine would certainly be taking advantage of these massed units.  

I'd think so too but wreck the roads or something! I'm not actually trying to armchair quarterback this fiasco BTW. Although I suddenly see the strategic advantage here to being the city of bridges. 

[DarkHunter]

45 minutes ago, susieice said:

I sure hope you're right DarkHunter. You've been pretty right so far. 

I just hear things and put things together, I been wrong a lot too.  It just seems odd that other convoys have been completely destroyed but this convoy hasnt been touched at all by the Ukranian military.  It's not impossible it's a trap meant to severely degrade Ukranian jets and drones, Russian military has been largely incompetent so far but it is dangerous to assume they will stay that way.

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, F3SS said:

How epic would it be if this 40 mile tank convoy pulls up, gets out with their hands up. No shots fired. Let's hope. 

It would rank up there with the Christmas truce from WW1.  For anyone who doesn't know the Christmas truce was when during one Christmas during WW1, I think 1914 but I could be wrong, along the front line on the western front British/French and German soldiers stopped fighting entirely for Christmas.  A large number of troops actually entered no man's land and celebrated Christmas with their enemies.  Gift were exchanged, Christmas carols song, a few games of soccer played. 

Commanders from both sides were horrified and took steps to ensure a Christmas truce would never happen again.

[F3SS]

2 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

It would rank up there with the Christmas truce from WW1.  For anyone who doesn't know the Christmas truce was when during one Christmas during WW1, I think 1914 but I could be wrong, along the front line on the western front British/French and German soldiers stopped fighting entirely for Christmas.  A large number of troops actually entered no man's land and celebrated Christmas with their enemies.  Gift were exchanged, Christmas carols song, a few games of soccer played. 

Commanders from both sides were horrified and took steps to ensure a Christmas truce would never happen again.

Didn't they all have to get back to fighting each other soon after though? A complete desertion would top the Christmas truce. However, I don't think it's going to happen. 

[F3SS]

The Russian soldier morale can't seriously be that high except for the killer psychopaths that may lie within. Following orders is one thing but they need a motivation and from what I'm seeing they're likely all just following orders. Hopefully there's a revolt. There has to be motivation and enthusiasm (lack of a better description) to kill. This isn't the 1200's when conquering was a glory sport.

[DarkHunter]

1 minute ago, F3SS said:

Didn't they all have to get back to fighting each other soon after though? A complete desertion would top the Christmas truce. However, I don't think it's going to happen. 

The truce was unofficial and unplanned, was literally just done by soldiers on the western front which is part of why the commanders were horrified by it, cant be freely fraternizing with the enemy,  might not want to kill them anymore.  They did go back to fighting and killing each other, in some areas it was the next morning, others literally after midnight, and in some areas the truce lasted a few days if I remember correctly.  A good bit of commanders ordered either artillery barrages or infantry charges shortly after the truce to get the men back to fighting.

[+Razman]

7 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

The truce was unofficial and unplanned, was literally just done by soldiers on the western front which is part of why the commanders were horrified by it, cant be freely fraternizing with the enemy,  might not want to kill them anymore.  They did go back to fighting and killing each other, in some areas it was the next morning, others literally after midnight, and in some areas the truce lasted a few days if I remember correctly.  A good bit of commanders ordered either artillery barrages or infantry charges shortly after the truce to get the men back to fighting.

Fascinating.

[Occult1]

Russia's Attack Slowing Down? Not So Fast, Experts Say

''The Russian army may have advanced less fast than planned in five days of war in Ukraine, but experts on Monday warned against jumping to conclusions from the apparent slowdown.

The army is preparing strikes on Ukraine's capital Kyiv and other cities and, at the same time, trying to link together its attack forces in the south of the country.

Both strategies are certain to put many more civilians in harm's way.''

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russias-attack-slowing-down-not-so-fast-experts-say-2795883

[Occult1]

Russian ground forces move closer to Kyiv, convoy stretches for miles -Maxar

''Feb 28 (Reuters) - Satellite imagery taken on Monday showed Russian ground forces continued to move closer to Ukraine's capital with a military convoy that stretched over 17 miles (27 km), a private U.S. company said.

Maxar Technologies Inc (MAXR.N) said the convoy on the eastern edge of Antonov airport contained hundreds of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and logistics support vehicles and continued to move south towards Kyiv.''

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-ground-forces-move-closer-kyiv-convoy-stretches-miles-maxar-2022-02-28/

 

I know it's an unpopular opinion in mainstream media to mention that Ukraine is ''losing'', but here we have a huge Russian military convoy stretching 27 KM heading straight to Kiev literally unimpeded. It's hard to see how this is can be perceived as a favorable outcome for Ukrainian forces. It looks like a long siege is about to begin which could end with the Ukrainian government capitulating or that the capital will be taken very soon.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Occult1

[DarkHunter]

7 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

capital will be taken very soon.

If I remember correctly you were saying the capital was about to fall within hours days ago.  So far the capital has not fallen and the Russians have left a stupidly long convoy on the way to Kyiv in a formation that is perfect to be attacked and destroyed, like how Ukraine has done to multiple other Russian convoys already.