Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[godnodog]

20 hours ago, and then said:

IF this is true, and I admit that it could be true, then Ukrainians have a right to resist the new government as illegitimate.  If another election in the U.S. is as sketchy as 2020 was, that scenario is a real possibility here.  People will begin to ignore and or resist the central authority of our Federal government.  What we WON'T DO, is call for a 3rd nation to come into a war on our behalf.  Imagine having Mexico or Canada simply take a few states at the margins of our territory and begin a civil war to chip away at the rest of the country.  That is what Russia is doing.  It's nothing less than theft on a massive scale with BS political rhetoric to cover for it.

Yes Occult1 is saying the truth, the government was indeed elected, what he is not saying is why the gov was overthrow, I'm letting that to Occult1.

 

[Essan]

4 minutes ago, godnodog said:

Yes Occult1 is saying the truth, the government was indeed elected, what he is not saying is why the gov was overthrow, I'm letting that to Occult1.

 

And since the Maidan "uprising" there have been further free elections - parliamentary - in which far right candidates attracted around 2% of votes, much less than in other European countries, and, of course, a presidential election in which a comedy actor unexpectedly won, beating the guy who took over in 2014.

[godnodog]

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

The war is already over...Every serious and UNBIASED analyst will admit it. All the major cities are encircled and some are completely cut off. There is no way the Ukrainian military can reverse that on it's own. The Ukrainian forces have retreated in the urban centers and are hiding among the population. This is a clever tactic and it's extremely difficult for even one of the most powerful military in the world to take those cities and inflict defeat to the defending forces without causing horrible humanitarian crises and destruction. A swift victory without causing a tremendous amount of civilian casualties simply isn't possible in that case. So the Russian military is advancing very slowly but steadily to avoid causing too much civilian causalities. It's a war of attrition. Russia is 'grinding down' Ukrainian forces. But the enemy's propaganda machine can then claim that they are ''bogged down'', ''slow'' and have ''low morale''.

For what I've been reading it's the opposite, though I'll generally agree with you.

I've read, don't remember where, that russians are too streched and in way too many places they have food water and ammo for 3 days top and this is part kf the reason they doing trenches,  as Ukrainians keeps pounding their supply lines. Also a big number of soldiers are coming in to support Ukraine, some after being going rapid training (still too green imo) and western ex military volunteer folks.

This is a war of attrition at this moment, one one side a country that refuses to surrender and on the other side a guy who thought he was some sort of genious and one of Russia's greatest.

[Essan]

There are also rumours that Russia's tank manufacturing facilities have shut down as they can't get the parts, putting a limit on how many tanks they have to be blown up .....   I guess a consequence of modern technology (we can no longer convert a motorbike factory into a arms factory as we did back in WW2 - because we still need computer chips from Taiwan!)

[+and-then]

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

This is a clever tactic and it's extremely difficult for even one of the most powerful military in the world to take those cities and inflict defeat to the defending forces without causing horrible humanitarian crises and destruction.

Unfortunately, that tactic seems to become more common all the time.  I deplore hiding behind civilians but it happens everywhere these days and the Palestinians and the Hamas and Hizballah can attest to its effectiveness in the information war that accompanies armed conflicts these days.  To save civilian lives a force must lose far more of their own troops to take the ground.  Russia is not known for that kind of civility in their war-making.  

You seem convinced that they cannot be stopped.  In the beginning I also assumed it would be a short, bloody brawl.  Now, I'm not so certain.  Every day that they continue reducing a major city to absolute ruin, with obvious disregard for civilian casualties, their standing in the world falls ever farther.  I think Russia's experiment with freedom is at a crisis today and it looks like Putin is going to take them all back to the bad old days.  It's a damned shame.  Those who want to live in peace, deserve better.

[Occult1]

Mariupol under continuous bombardment by Russian forces

''The besieged port city of Mariupol is under continuous bombardment as Russian forces redouble their efforts to capture it after its leaders refused to surrender, Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday.

 The city council said the pounding was turning Mariupol into the “ashes of a dead land”. Russia’s RIA news agency said Russian forces and units of Russian-backed separatists had taken about half of the city, citing a separatist leader.

 The plight of civilians in Mariupol, home to 400,000 people before the war, grew ever more desperate. Hundreds of thousands are believed to be trapped inside buildings, with no access to food, water, power or heat.''

https://www.telegraphindia.com/world/ukraine-crisis-mariupol-under-continuous-bombardment-as-russian-forces-redouble-their-efforts-to-capture-it/cid/1857134

 

There are reports that Russian troops now controls half the city. 100,000 civilians are believed to be trapped in buildings and used as human shields by Ukrainian forces according to some sources.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Occult1

[Buzz_Light_Year]

5 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

There are reports that Russia now controls half the city. 100,000 civilians are believed to be trapped in buildings and used as human shields by Ukrainian forces according to some sources.

Let me guess Occult1 is "some sources"

[DarkHunter]

22 hours ago, Occult1 said:

- post removed -

First link is from a far left socialist news sight with the story linked in it originally being posted to the Donbas Insider, a pro-Russian news site that frequently pumps out stories supporting the Russian narrative.  Also the article has factually wrong information, most obvious is in the last paragraph.  The Russian military has tried multiple times to take Maryinka and each time has been repulsed normally with high losses.

Second link is to a Venezuelan state owned news site with Venezuela being one of the few nations still supporting Russia.

Put some effort into pushing your fake narrative/Russian propaganda.

[Occult1]

11 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

First link is from a far left socialist news sight with the story linked in it originally being posted to the Donbas Insider, a pro-Russian news site that frequently pumps out stories supporting the Russian narrative.  Also the article has factually wrong information, most obvious is in the last paragraph.  The Russian military has tried multiple times to take Maryinka and each time has been repulsed normally with high losses.

Second link is to a Venezuelan state owned news site with Venezuela being one of the few nations still supporting Russia.

Put some effort into pushing your fake narrative/Russian propaganda.

Some people might dismiss these sources as ''Pro-Russia'' but these exact same people accept Pro-Ukrainian sources at face value.

I think we should consider all points of view.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Occult1

[DarkHunter]

1 minute ago, Occult1 said:

Some people might dismiss these sources as ''Pro-Russia'' but these exact same people accept Pro-Ukrainian sources at face value.

I think we should consider all points of view.

You dismiss everything not straight from the Russian government as pro-Ukranian propaganda.  Even then your sources follow one of two patterns, they either have massive factual errors or they dont actually say what you claim they do.

[+Razman]

Thats what i was sayin before, there is so much crap spewing about , that its hard to tell what is real and what is not and get a clear picture of what really is happening , or being able to verify. Its like in the media everybody's lying some of the time , or somebody's lying all of the time. Maybe not outright lying fully , but stretching the narrative to fit the agenda.

[Buzz_Light_Year]

Smoke coming out of the Russian Embassy in Warsaw. The same thing was observed in Kyiv.

 

[DarkHunter]

3 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Smoke coming out of the Russian Embassy in Warsaw. The same thing was observed in Kyiv.

 

There is a very real possibility of Putin trying to expand the war.  More than likely Putin is hoping that a limited strike on a NATO member will raise the cost of aiding Ukraine higher than what NATO is willing to pay.  

From what I have heard, which may or may not be accurate, Putin is extremely secluded and is largely only getting information from those closest to him which all have an interest in telling Putin what he wants to hear.  This creates a dangerous situation of Putin getting fed incorrect information and basing his decisions off of that.  It's very possible the people closest to him are saying NATO wont continue to back Ukraine if it cost them blood.  If Putin decides to test NATO resolve, stuff gets very bad very quickly and this goes from a regional war to a global war almost instantly.

[Setton]

1 hour ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Let me guess Occult1 is "some sources"

Don't be so unfair.

His sources also include Russian president Vladimir Putin, German journalist Mr P. Utin, Chinese businessman Vi Pu Tin and the rapper known as V-Lad.

[ExpandMyMind]

Reports are coming out claiming that Ukraine have the Russians north west of Kyiv surrounded.

If the map is accurate then it doesn’t look good for the invaders.

[DarkHunter]

3 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Reports are coming out claiming that Ukraine have the Russians north west of Kyiv surrounded.

If the map is accurate then it doesn’t look good for the invaders.

I saw those reports earlier, havent heard much on what's going on but if Russian units are completely cut off it will probably take a day or two before reports of them being destroyed come out.

[ExpandMyMind]

The above seems to be supported by this.

 

[ExpandMyMind]

7 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

I saw those reports earlier, havent heard much on what's going on but if Russian units are completely cut off it will probably take a day or two before reports of them being destroyed come out.

If Russia lose those units then it’s game over as soon as the Ukrainians can redeploy elsewhere. Assuming Belarus stay out of things.

[Buzz_Light_Year]

36 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

There is a very real possibility of Putin trying to expand the war.  More than likely Putin is hoping that a limited strike on a NATO member will raise the cost of aiding Ukraine higher than what NATO is willing to pay.  

From what I have heard, which may or may not be accurate, Putin is extremely secluded and is largely only getting information from those closest to him which all have an interest in telling Putin what he wants to hear.  This creates a dangerous situation of Putin getting fed incorrect information and basing his decisions off of that.  It's very possible the people closest to him are saying NATO wont continue to back Ukraine if it cost them blood.  If Putin decides to test NATO resolve, stuff gets very bad very quickly and this goes from a regional war to a global war almost instantly.

Boeing RC-135 Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft. I have other images of flight paths of Stratotankers and KC10A extenders flying in loops in the same area all day also there was one flying a loop in eastern Romania near the border of Moldova and the Black Sea.

Every once in a while I'll see an F-15 in and around Lodz along with Blackhawks.

So NATO isn't sitting back and waiting as they have assets in the area.

In case anyone is interested. https://www.flightradar24.com/47.53,17.49/5

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by Buzz_Light_Year

[DarkHunter]

3 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

If Russia lose those units then it’s game over as soon as the Ukrainians can redeploy elsewhere. Assuming Belarus stay out of things.

Been hearing different things about both matters.  The amount of cut off Russian troops depending on the source range from 1,000 to 2,000 on the low end to 30,000 on the high end.  Personally I'm guessing between 5,000 and 7,500 as I cant imagine Russia bunching up so many troops in a few areas but the Russian military hasnt exactly made the best tactical or strategic decisions so far.  Even if it's only a couple thousand it will shift momentum on that front massively and essentially end any further advances on Kyiv west of the Dnieper river.

As for Belarus getting involved there are always rumors and intelligence reports that Belarus is about to invade but so far none have been correct yet.  Been hearing rumors though that Putin wants Belarus to get involved militarily but that the leader of Belarus cant get the army to invade without large parts of it mutinying.  Even than the Belarusian army is less well trained, less well equipped, and significantly more corrupt than the Russian military.  While an opponent shouldnt be underestimated the Ukranian forces stationed in western Ukraine should be able to manage any invasion of Belarus without needing to pull troops from other fronts.  Arguably just keeping Belarus as a potential threat is more beneficial than them actually getting involved and removed as a threat.

[DarkHunter]

7 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Boeing RC-135 Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft. I have other images of flight paths of Stratotankers and KC10A extenders flying in loops in the same area all day also there was one flying a loop in western Romania near the border of Moldova and the Black Sea.

Every once in a while I'll see an F-15 in and around Lodz along with Blackhawks.

So NATO isn't sitting back and waiting as they have assets in the area.

In case anyone is interested. https://www.flightradar24.com/47.53,17.49/5

 

That is what makes all of this dangerous.  It's pretty clear NATO is more or less ready for a Russian strike but it's not clear if Putin knows that, what person close to him wants to tell Putin that the best of the Russian military has been devastated and that NATO is prepared to counter any Russian aggression.  Putin might make a decision to strike a NATO member under the bad information that NATO is not prepared and wont be willing to respond militarily to anything Russia does.

This is a prime example of the dangers of being surrounded by sycophants.

[+and-then]

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

Some people might dismiss these sources as ''Pro-Russia'' but these exact same people accept Pro-Ukrainian sources at face value.

I think we should consider all points of view.

I think we should refuse to really TRUST any single source.  What IS clear, at least to me, is that Russia INVADED a neighbor and is turning cities into rubble.  There can be no valid excuse made for that.  As I've said before, even if there ARE Nazis in Ukraine, if they are not trying to invade or attack Russia itself, Russia has no justification for attacking, especially civilians.

FWIW, I don't agree with the decisions by NATO and the U.S. to keep moving closer and closer to Russia's borders but I do understand why eastern European nations would want to have security guarantees to protect them from Russia in the future.  70 years of brutal occupation tends to cause a lack of trust, yeah?

[+and-then]

5 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

American intelligence believes Russia is planning a false flag attack to justify Russian use of chemical and/or biological weapons.

THIS^, frankly, scares me.  If we see horrific images of civilians, gassed and dead or dying in large numbers, that could be the spark that takes this conflict to the next level.  We know from history that both Russia and DC will blame each other and if enough outrage is generated in the west, the leadership of NATO may take steps that Putin will feel compelled to answer.  This is beginning to seem like a slow-motion nightmare where you know how it ends but have no power to stop it  

[+and-then]

52 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

If Russia lose those units then it’s game over as soon as the Ukrainians can redeploy elsewhere. Assuming Belarus stay out of things.

And assuming Vlad doesn't turn up the heat.    I just don't see him losing gracefully.  

[DarkHunter]

32 minutes ago, and then said:

THIS^, frankly, scares me.  If we see horrific images of civilians, gassed and dead or dying in large numbers, that could be the spark that takes this conflict to the next level.  We know from history that both Russia and DC will blame each other and if enough outrage is generated in the west, the leadership of NATO may take steps that Putin will feel compelled to answer.  This is beginning to seem like a slow-motion nightmare where you know how it ends but have no power to stop it  

A massive and sudden escalation might be the best way for the war to end even though it sounds counter productive.  

Putin cant just back down as the situation is now without some kind of decisive victory and it seems increasingly likely that Putin wont get that decisive victory.  A slow and steady escalation is arguably the most dangerous thing that could happen as it builds up a tolerance for even more escalation.  A rapid escalation is dangerous as a single misstep can push the world over the brink but it does have some benefits in that if handled right it would bring a near immediate stop to the conflict and give Putin a method to back down while not appearing weak along with a way to survive and continue to lead Russia.  Long term consequences would be near impossible to predict but more than likely the end results would be an expanded and more militarily capable NATO and a Russia that is more openly totalitarian and repressive that would be desperate to reestablish its former reputation.