Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[Wepwawet]

Boris Johnson has said that that he would supply Ukraine with tanks, but the logisitics of doing this are not good at the moment. Yes, quite, but this needs a closer look at, and knowing about some of these things I find a mess. We only have 227 tanks spread over four regiments, so even if the logisitics were good, how many tanks would we send? Even though Challenger II is arguably the best tank in the world, always a fractious topic, if we send all of them it would not make a noticable difference, even if they could be deployed straight away, but they cannot unless their British crews go with them, and that would be an overt attack by Nato on Russia and a potential trigger for WWIII.

But let's say that a number of tanks were sent without British crews, but with instructors. It would take four weeks to train the drivers and gunners in the basics, and I wonder what the situation would be in four weeks. But it takes a lot longer than four weeks to learn to command a tank, particularly one as complex as a Challenger, and they same would apply even to a now ancient Chieftain, or Centurion, still used by some countries. I think this will all be over long before Ukraine could field an operational unit of Challenger II. But it's all a non starter, though Johnson has said that he would supply military equipment to Ukraine after the Russian operation was over, riiiight.

And this funny business about supplying tanks to Ukraine came about because Zelensky asked for them, and he quoted that Russia now has 100 tanks for every Ukrainian one. The number of Russian and Ukrainian tanks in service before the fighting is a known quantity, and it would mean that by Zelensky's apparent admission that they are now at a 100-1 disadvantage, Ukraine has only 120 tanks left. On the other hand, Zelensky's advisor, Alexie Arestovich, has stated that Ukraine has only lost 74 tanks, though has captured 117 Russian ones, thus increasing their tank strength from the start of the war, interesting, if true.

[Helen of Annoy]

I'd like to mention that there's possibility Putler's aggression against Ukraine could cause another war in Bosnia, which will instantly involve my country too. 

 

The original articles are in Croatian, the link is to Google translate of said article. 

 https://www-index-hr.translate.goog/vijesti/clanak/njemacka-ministrica-putin-pokusava-destabilizirati-zapadni-balkan/2350380.aspx?index_ref=rubrika_vijesti_najcitanije_d&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=hr&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Quote

 

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says Europe should be wary of Russia's efforts to destabilize the Western Balkans amid the war in Ukraine.

Baerbock told reporters yesterday in Berlin that similar moves had preceded Russia's military engagement in Ukraine despite Moscow's constant denial that it was preparing an attack.

Russia's similar support for separatist movements in Bosnia, for example, could threaten the integrity and sovereignty of the Western Balkans, Baerbock said after meeting with Croatian counterpart Gordan Grlic-Radman.

 

Combine this with the fact that Serbs don't admit they did anything wrong in the 1990's. They commemorated "NATO aggression" on them (which included pro-Putin rally in Belgrade too): 

https://www-index-hr.translate.goog/vijesti/clanak/vucic-porucio-natou-usutite-bar-danas/2350358.aspx?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=hr&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

Quote

 

..the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, also attended the commemoration.

In his speech, Vučić said that "23 years ago, a brutal, horrible, horrible, criminal and inhumane attack was launched on a small country that hardly harmed anyone."

"That small country did not attack anyone, did not threaten the territory of another country.

...

He added that "he will never again hide that NATO's bombing of the FRY was an aggression against a sovereign state."

 

*snip*

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Saru
Best to keep private message conversations private.

[odas]

58 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

I'd like to mention that there's possibility Putler's aggression against Ukraine could cause another war in Bosnia, which will instantly involve my country too. 

 

The original articles are in Croatian, the link is to Google translate of said article. 

 https://www-index-hr.translate.goog/vijesti/clanak/njemacka-ministrica-putin-pokusava-destabilizirati-zapadni-balkan/2350380.aspx?index_ref=rubrika_vijesti_najcitanije_d&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=hr&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Combine this with the fact that Serbs don't admit they did anything wrong in the 1990's. They commemorated "NATO aggression" on them (which included pro-Putin rally in Belgrade too): 

https://www-index-hr.translate.goog/vijesti/clanak/vucic-porucio-natou-usutite-bar-danas/2350358.aspx?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=hr&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

*snip*

 

True. Not sure if you have watched it but a few days ago russian ambassador Kabhulov was on bosnian tv and said that russia is not tretening bosnia but being "advised" not to go against russia, adding " how do you know that we don't have plans for Croatia?" 

[DarkHunter]

Reports are starting to come out of a second Russian Lieutenant General being killed in combat.  The reports are saying that Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev was killed at the airport close to Kherson.

Pointing out in Russia a Lieutenant General is a two star general unlike in America where a Lieutenant General is a three star general.

If the report is accurate that is 6 killed Russian generals and 1 killed Chechen general.

[godnodog]

19 hours ago, CrimsonKing said:

Just saw a report of a Russian soldier running over a colonel after the doofus got his friends killed...

I mean damn,who's running this s*** show?...Moe,Larry,and Curly? 

Too add he ran over him in a tank!

link please, serioooooyssly dude, please 

[ExpandMyMind]

59 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Reports are starting to come out of a second Russian Lieutenant General being killed in combat.  The reports are saying that Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev was killed at the airport close to Kherson.

Pointing out in Russia a Lieutenant General is a two star general unlike in America where a Lieutenant General is a three star general.

If the report is accurate that is 6 killed Russian generals and 1 killed Chechen general.

Actually, I read this morning that it was a 7th General killed.

After a point it becomes difficult to keep count.

[godnodog]

18 hours ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Expand

I see what you are saying but still have to wonder who and how he can blame that on as an attack by the Ukraine. The Ukraine has only been defending in their country and not taking aggressive action on Russian soil. If Putin uses bioweapon in Russia on Ukrainian civilian POWs in Russia he still has Russian people that will be affected. He might be able to make it out as an attack to the Russian people but the rest of the world will know better as they can track where a missile is launched from. I would think that any sample of a bioweapon could/would be identified which lab/country it came from.

If not misstaken there has been 2 strikes to Russian militar instalations within Russian borders.

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Actually, I read this morning that it was a 7th General killed.

After a point it becomes difficult to keep count.

A lot of sources count the Chechen general into the killed Russian generals.  I just like to keep it seperate due to the relatively unique situation with the Chechens.

[Stiff]

1 hour ago, godnodog said:

link please, serioooooyssly dude, please 

 

[ExpandMyMind]

10 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

A lot of sources count the Chechen general into the killed Russian generals.  I just like to keep it seperate due to the relatively unique situation with the Chechens.

Ah, that might be it.

[Buzz_Light_Year]

 

Biden tells the 82nd Airborne they're going to Ukraine: "You’re going to see when you’re there, you’re going to see women, young people standing in the middle, in the front of a damn tank saying 'I’m not leaving.'"

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507386975753494533

[godnodog]

20 minutes ago, Stiff said:

 

this comment on that video comment section killed me:
"Russian soldier: "First off, I'd like to tank my commanding officer for being here...""

[Stiff]

10 minutes ago, godnodog said:

this comment on that video comment section killed me:
"Russian soldier: "First off, I'd like to tank my commanding officer for being here...""

This one I saw the other day on reddit made me smile...

"Apparently the colonel was released from hospital to an IKEA flatpack warehouse, ready for reassembly."

And also ROFL =  "Russian On Floor Laminated"

 

[jmccr8]

2 hours ago, godnodog said:

If not misstaken there has been 2 strikes to Russian militar instalations within Russian borders.

Hi Godnodog

I had wondered about that earlier and looked but found nothing, as far as I can tell the Ukrainians have hit supply points in the Ukraine but nothing past their border. Not sure but if they did make strikes on Russian soil I would think Putin would see that as an invasion and go all out as it would give him what he needs to tell his people.

[CrimsonKing]

2 hours ago, godnodog said:

link please, serioooooyssly dude, please 

Stiff already found it I see 

[DarkHunter]

22 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Godnodog

I had wondered about that earlier and looked but found nothing, as far as I can tell the Ukrainians have hit supply points in the Ukraine but nothing past their border. Not sure but if they did make strikes on Russian soil I would think Putin would see that as an invasion and go all out as it would give him what he needs to tell his people.

Near the start of the invasion Ukraine fired a ballistic missile at a Russian military airport relatively close to the Ukranian border, it damaged/destroyed two jets but didnt due much significant damage overall.

[DarkHunter]

Hearing reports that the Ukranian military has entered Kherson oblast and is advancing towards the city of Kerson on multiple axis.  Seems the Russian lieutenant general killed earlier today was killed in combat from this advance.  The Pentagon has released a statement saying Russia is no longer in full control of Kherson oblast.  

If the Ukranian military retakes the city of Kherson soon than the southern front is at risk of collapse and Mariupol might be able to be relieved.  Its 260 miles (419 km) from Kherson to Mariupol but if Kherson is liberated than a lot of Russian combat troops will be cut off west of the Dnieper river with no supplies or reinforcements and the rear area for the troops attacking Mariupol will be completely exposed along with a potential open path to Crimea.  Russia would be forced to divert troops away from other areas of the southern front that havent been cut off which would either make it easier for a relief force to break the siege of Mariupol from the north or the forces assaulting Mariupol will be reduced giving the defenders more time to hold out.

[+and-then]

9 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

I'd like to mention that there's possibility Putler's aggression against Ukraine could cause another war in Bosnia, which will instantly involve my country too. 

His actions in Ukraine have set the whole world near  to a flame.  I hope it can be put out before it grows, but at a minimum, I support sending money and material aid to the countries who are caring for the huge numbers of refugees.

[+and-then]

24 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

If the Ukranian military retakes the city of Kherson soon than the southern front is at risk of collapse and Mariupol might be able to be relieved.

What reaction would you expect if the Russian forces were effectively, being expelled from Ukraine?  

[DarkHunter]

4 minutes ago, and then said:

What reaction would you expect if the Russian forces were effectively, being expelled from Ukraine?  

Russia would probably move to increasing use of stand off weapons and attempting to cause as much destruction to Ukraine as they can.  Population centers would be indiscriminately attacked with cluster munitions, critical infrastructure like power plants, dams, ect would be targeted.  I would expect Russia to attempt to strike all the functional nuclear power plants.  Might try to abduct as many people as they can to help offset their demographic problems which this war is just making worse.  I dont see Russia using nuclear weapons but they would try to destroy as much as possible and kill as many Ukranians as they can.

[+and-then]

11 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Russia would probably move to increasing use of stand off weapons and attempting to cause as much destruction to Ukraine as they can.  Population centers would be indiscriminately attacked with cluster munitions, critical infrastructure like power plants, dams, ect would be targeted.

This is my assumption too.  Destroy what they cannot possess.  

[Helen of Annoy]

36 minutes ago, and then said:

His actions in Ukraine have set the whole world near  to a flame.  I hope it can be put out before it grows, but at a minimum, I support sending money and material aid to the countries who are caring for the huge numbers of refugees.

Poland first. Poland took most of refugees. Moldova took many, it's a tiny and poor country, they need urgent help, Ukrainians must be evacuated further, into the EU countries.

Defense-wise, Poland, Baltic, Romania, of course. (Balkan might explode, but we'll be a separate conflict without direct Russian presence.) I don't know what is going to happen with Hungary, but it doesn't look sane at all.   

[L.A.T.1961]

It looks like Putin is having an enforced rethink.

 Moscow signalled on Friday it was scaling back its ambitions in Ukraine to focus on territory claimed by Russian-backed separatists

 "In an announcement that appeared to indicate that Moscow may be switching to more limited goals, the Russian Defence Ministry said the first phase of its operation was mostly complete, and it would now focus on "liberating" two eastern regions claimed by Russian-backed separatists."

 "Ukrainian counter-attacks, and Russian forces falling back on overextended supply lines, has allowed Ukraine to reoccupy towns and defensive positions up to 35 km east of Kyiv," the report said.

"In the first big sign that Western sanctions on Russia were impacting investment from China, sources said state-run Sinopec Group, Asia's biggest oil refiner, had suspended talks on a petrochemical investment and a venture to market Russian gas."

 

China probably has a reasonable idea what is going on in Ukraine and the petrochemical venture will be a sign of which way the wind is blowing. 

So far Putin has achieved little and now some of these claimed achievements appear to be temporary. 

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/first-signs-russia-is-scaling-back-military-aims-in-ukraine-as-chinese-petrochemical-giant-suspends-talks-on-new-gas-venture-41485465.html

[L.A.T.1961]

Nato officials have estimated that 40,000 Russian troops have so far been killed, captured or injured in conflict.

Retired US Army Brig Gen Kevin Ryan, who is also a Russia specialist, says that the Kremlin has “failed to accomplish” its “main military goals” in quickly seizing Kyiv and removing the country’s elected leadership.

And now he says that bringing the conflict to an end quickly is the “most likely scenario” more than a month into the attack.

Gen Ryan said that Russian defence chiefs have “a huge personnel problem.”

“There is no significant military unit left in Russia outside of Ukraine. They are all in the fight,” he said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/putin-russia-ukraine-invasion-halt-b2044369.html

[+and-then]

It is going to be very interesting and instructive to watch the reactions from NATO and Russia in the wake of Putin's barbarism.  TMK, this is the first instance of a post-WWII nation actually using nukes as potential tactical weapon in their fight against anyone.  I guess some may say that Israel's doctrine is the same but Putin has done much more than simply refusing to admit to possession of nukes or to pledge "no first use" as Israel has done.

So... in this aftermath, will the west codify a response to such threats in the future or will they behave as if this never happened?  IMO, Putin's choice in this war has opened up a topic we've successfully ignored for 70+ years.  It's true that his doctrine on nukes changed back in 2000 or so but since then, this is the first time he publicly hinted at using them first, as a means of counterbalancing NATO's conventional advantage.  

I also wonder how long it will take NATO and the wider west to put this evil behind themselves for the sake of trade  .  Eventually, it must be done or Russia will have no incentive to remain peaceful at all.  However, if it's done too soon, it will seem to give him the all clear to use the technique again.