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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6

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3 hours ago, Tiggs said:

KYIV, Ukraine — Satellite images released Thursday showed what appeared to be mass graves near Mariupol, and local officials accused Russia of burying up to 9,000 Ukrainian civilians there in an effort to conceal the slaughter taking place in the siege of the port city.

Satellite image provider Maxar Technologies released the photos, which it said showed more than 200 mass graves in a town where Ukrainian officials say the Russians have been burying Mariupol residents killed in the fighting.

Source: AP

Hi Tiggs

Kind of makes me wonder how many were The  Russian/Ukrainians that they came in to liberate and how do the tell them apart

 

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10 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Problem is Ukraine is having zero significant difficulty in defending their airspace. 

I think most would disagree with "zero significant difficulty".

image.thumb.png.784b9979d0b342e784546dfe9e6c976b.png

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19 minutes ago, Myles said:

I think most would disagree with "zero significant difficulty".

image.thumb.png.784b9979d0b342e784546dfe9e6c976b.png

Exactly. There is (or at least, has been) significant difficulty - if there wasn't, Zelensky would not have practically begged NATO to instate a no-fly zone over Ukraine. 

My overall point is that @Occult1 has offered some interesting food for thought, despite the fact that he does have the tendency to overlook just how well Ukraine is doing against Russia, which is much better than anybody expected (but that's because of Western interference).

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1 minute ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Exactly. There is (or at least, has been) significant difficulty - if there wasn't, Zelensky would not have practically begged NATO to instate a no-fly zone over Ukraine. 

My overall point is that @Occult1 has offered some interesting food for thought, despite the fact that he does have the tendency to overlook just how well Ukraine is doing against Russia, which is much better than anybody expected (but that's because of Western interference).

While I agree that Occult had made a few valid points (I even defended him earlier in this thread).  Then he wrote some stupid stuff in support of Russia and has made many false claims which made him look like a troll.  I won't defend him anymore.  

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Looks like the casualty number from Ukraine might be accurate. Russia’s numbers match up with them.

 

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Russian’s now admitting their actual goals in Ukraine.

Taking territory and setting up republics.

 

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12 hours ago, razman said:

I was talking to the Sarnia checkpoint yesterday, we are thinking of going to the Canada side of Niagra Falls , and could cut up through Michigan and go by Sarnia and London , but  since 9-11 you need a passport , and also a covid plan nowadays, so if something happens you gotta quarantine for 14 days , which could be a problem. Otherwise we gotta go all the way around Cleveland and up through Buffalo.

Hi Razman

Southern Ontario is beautiful country to drive in and have enjoyed driving out that way a few times and you would likely find our gas cheaper with exchange. I lived in Windsor Ontario for a year and was going to live there but because a grampa and decided to move further west instead, yes covid changed things and trying to plan a 4 day weekend to include a 2 week isolation is a dampener.:tu:

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1 hour ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Russian’s now admitting their actual goals in Ukraine.

Taking territory and setting up republics.

 

I think anyone even remotely familiar with the situation knew it was the goal. The partition of Ukraine in a South/North Korea type scenario.

I have been dismissed earlier in the thread for even suggesting it. I think it's the best solution to freeze the conflict for decades to come.

Edited by Occult1
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3 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I can only speculate as to why they were begging NATO just a short few weeks ago to provide them with a no-fly zone. Perhaps they are not having issues now after being provided significant assistance by the West, which ties into my/ @Occult1's point that without Western assistance, they would be absolutely steamrolled.

Being supplied MANPADs, which help significantly is not enough to cause a drastic change in Ukraine's air defense capabilities.  Except for that one singular S-300 battery that Slovakia sent the west has only supplied MANPADs.  As for why Ukraine would want a no fly zone is cause it would essentially end the war immediately.  Russia would be put into the position of having to shoot down a western jet which would almost certainly pull America/NATO into the conflict.  

3 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Where? Can you provide a source for that claim? Even if it is the case, you're aware that Russia has over 1000 at their disposal, right?

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

Every single loss only gets counted if there is a unique picture or video as proof, there is also a corresponding one for Ukranian losses but they got moved to their own page recently instead of being on one.

As for your comment of Russia has over a 1,000 at their disposal, I know how many aircraft Russia has at their disposal.  Russia cant bring every aircraft to bare at once, also it has no impact on the fact that Russia hasnt been able to gain air superiority over Ukraine.

3 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

How do you know? How do you know you're not a victim of Ukrainian/Western propaganda? Propaganda exists on both sides. 

Basic logical thinking.  I dont go with Ukraine's numbers instead going with that site I linked to.  Getting a picture of a downed aircraft or helicopter is entirely luck based.  The aircraft needs to go down behind Ukranian lines, which Russian pilots are going to try to avoid at all cost, and it needs to go down in an area that is easy enough to get to, crashing in a swamp or a minefield or extremely close to the front lines makes it a bit challenging to get a picture of.  Basically out of the entire set of downed Russian aircraft, the subset of photographed ones is inherently smaller.

3 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I've been following the crisis since February 24th (less so the past couple of weeks because of how depressing it is, especially the atrocities committed in Bucha) - in fact, I've been monitoring the buildup since November/December. I was actually watching security camera footage of Z-marked vehicles rolling into Ukrainian territories before the first shells were even fired.

But yet you dont seem to know about how Ukraine has the second most extensive air defense system in Europe or that Russia flies very few sorties over Ukraine.  Those dont show air superiority which you claim was an interesting point.

3 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

And where do you get your information from? Western/Ukrainian sources, just like I do. There exists bias and propaganda on both sides.

I get very little information from western/Ukranian sources.  I generally only count primary sources, pictures and videos from the front lines, statements made by the actors involved, ect.

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14 minutes ago, el midgetron said:

 

 

 

That's impossible.  A poster on this very site clearly said that he was dead and had his head cut off by Nazis.  That guy would never post baseless, defamatory statements just to further his personal political agenda- it would undermine his credibility, reputation and make the other posters think he is a fool.

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2 hours ago, Myles said:

I think most would disagree with "zero significant difficulty".

image.thumb.png.784b9979d0b342e784546dfe9e6c976b.png

Aircraft losses due not correspond one to one to difficulty in defending airspace.  Ukraine has a very small airforce, total jets were between 100 and 150 of which a decent amount were not in flying condition.  Ukraine has relied on their ground air defense systems to protect their airspace and not their airforce.

Also that list is a bit outdated in terms of jets lost so far.

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10 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I think anyone even remotely familiar with the situation knew it was the goal. The partition of Ukraine in a South/North Korea type scenario.

I have been dismissed earlier in the thread for even suggesting it. I think it's the best solution to freeze the conflict for decades to come.

To be fair, there are some that earnestly believed that it was a mere military action designed to deal with nazis.

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25 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I think anyone even remotely familiar with the situation knew it was the goal. The partition of Ukraine in a South/North Korea type scenario.

I have been dismissed earlier in the thread for even suggesting it. I think it's the best solution to freeze the conflict for decades to come.

Your the one that said it was for De-Nazification. Others like myself said Russia was after the oil and gas deposits in the Black Sea and eastern Ukraine so they could have absolute control over supplying Europe.

Here's a prediction: Russia will get control over all those resources and then Israel will finish the plans to build the pipeline through Greece to Europe and then the real show starts.

 

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1 hour ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Looks like the casualty number from Ukraine might be accurate. Russia’s numbers match up with them.

 

This is @Occult1 right now.

 

9Kpw.gif

Edited by Shooter McGavin
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Italian tv broadcast an image of the bunker of Azovstal. Graphic was from a Kickstarter for a post-apocalypse game. Reminds me of Rumsfeld touting Osama’s many secret bases in the mountains of Tora Bora…..
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Gromdor said:

That's impossible.  A poster on this very site clearly said that he was dead and had his head cut off by Nazis.  That guy would never post baseless, defamatory statements just to further his personal political agenda- it would undermine his credibility, reputation and make the other posters think he is a fool.

Of course your comment is directed at the poster and not the content.

Anyway, contrary to your understanding it was the beloved Azov neo-Nazis who claimed to have taken Gonzalo and eluded to his murder. I guess your astute analysis above can be applied to the neo-Nazi “heros” of Ukraine?  Glory to Ukraine!

 

Anyway, I’ll happily remain in the camp that posts corrections or more accurately updates as apposed to the camp that apologizes for Nazis and justifies the murder of civilians, Imagine that, turns out he’s alive but members here still justified his murder and you aligned yourself with them even after the fact. Congratulations,

 

Edited by el midgetron
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15 hours ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Occult

They are not playing cards, yes their plea got help and that doesn't mean that a 1000 guys aren't in tunnels eating steaks and dinking vodka while watching Russian news casts for entertainment. We don't know the whole play yet and won't until it happens. You will likely have to wait sometime yet if ever that you get the chance to do the touch-down dance.

No doubt he'll spend some time cheering for the Russians while casting it as the "best thing" for the Ukrainians but until Vlad's troops have ALL of Ukraine, it is going to act as a blood-sponge for his forces.  You'd think Chechnya would have taught him some lessons.

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17 hours ago, The Silver Shroud said:

I'm not sure that the West will allow Putin to carry on commiting war crimes, it may be allowing the people in the steel works to starve to death in their hundreds or thousands may be enough to force their hand

What do you think the next step against Russia should be?  

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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

As for why Ukraine would want a no fly zone is cause it would essentially end the war immediately.  Russia would be put into the position of having to shoot down a western jet which would almost certainly pull America/NATO into the conflict.  

OR, it would cause Russia to return the favor and take the war to the next level.  

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49 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Being supplied MANPADs, which help significantly is not enough to cause a drastic change in Ukraine's air defense capabilities. 

That's BS. MANPADs provide a significant defence against low-altitude, slow-moving aircraft such as helicopters, and even bombers.

Quote

Except for that one singular S-300 battery that Slovakia sent the west has only supplied MANPADs.

Don't forget the NATO-supplied SA-8/10/12/14 air defence vehicles.

Quote

As for why Ukraine would want a no fly zone is cause it would essentially end the war immediately.  Russia would be put into the position of having to shoot down a western jet which would almost certainly pull America/NATO into the conflict.  

So Ukraine only wants a no-fly zone implemented over "significant parts of Ukraine" only because they want the war to end, and not because they can't take care of the air defence themselves? Interesting that Zelensky followed up with a request for more missile defence systems, then, after NATO rejected his request to instate the no-fly zone.

 

Quote

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

Every single loss only gets counted if there is a unique picture or video as proof, there is also a corresponding one for Ukranian losses but they got moved to their own page recently instead of being on one.

Who is responsible for verifying the authenticity of the photos?

Quote

As for your comment of Russia has over a 1,000 at their disposal, I know how many aircraft Russia has at their disposal.  Russia cant bring every aircraft to bare at once,

No, but considering how many helicopters are at their disposal, I'd find it very difficult to believe that the destroyed helicopter photographs depict a significant amount of choppers that have actually been used by Russia against Ukraine.

Quote

also it has no impact on the fact that Russia hasnt been able to gain air superiority over Ukraine.

We have the US and NATO to thank for that. Their provided MANPADs and aerial defence vehicles have proven very effective against the low-flying vehicles like helicopters.

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Basic logical thinking.  I dont go with Ukraine's numbers instead going with that site I linked to. 

So basic logical thinking is trusting that the pictures that you're seeing are actually pictures of Russian choppers that have been shot down, in Ukraine?

Quote

Getting a picture of a downed aircraft or helicopter is entirely luck based.  The aircraft needs to go down behind Ukranian lines, which Russian pilots are going to try to avoid at all cost, and it needs to go down in an area that is easy enough to get to, crashing in a swamp or a minefield or extremely close to the front lines makes it a bit challenging to get a picture of. 

Some of those pictures that the site claims to be immobilized/destroyed aircraft may also not even be aircraft, given the orientation of the photo, lack of detail, etc. Also, try as they may, if a helicopter at low altitude gets smacked by a Stinger rocket or, hell, even a Javelin anti-tank missile, it's unlikely that the helicopter is going to make it far from Ukrainian lines. 

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But yet you dont seem to know about how Ukraine has the second most extensive air defense system in Europe

Nope, I didn't know that. What source did you get that from?

Quote

or that Russia flies very few sorties over Ukraine.

There have been reports of Russia flying 200 sorties a day over Ukraine.

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Boris Johnson admits Russian victory in Ukraine is ‘a realistic possibility’ as Putin steps up onslaught

A Russian victory in Ukraine is a “realistic possibility”, Boris Johnson said on Friday, as Vladimir Putin steps up his onslaught on eastern Ukraine.

Speaking in New Delhi, on the second day of his two day visit to India, the Prime Minister said he agreed with an assessment from Western security officials that the Kremlin’s renewed focus on the Donbas could allow the Russian president to claim victory.

“Yes, I mean, look, I think the sad thing is that that is a realistic possibility,” he said.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/joe-biden-tells-vladimir-putin-063102427.html

 

Western leaders are slowly, grudgingly admitting that there is nothing they can do to stop Russia. Will they push Zelensky to negotiate the best deal he can get?

Edited by Occult1
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1 hour ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Your the one that said it was for De-Nazification.

 

Demilitarization/De-Nazification is not incompatible with partitioning Ukraine.

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8 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Western leaders are slowly, grudgingly admitting that there is nothing they can do to stop Russia. Will they push Zelensky to negotiate the best deal he can get?

I don't think it's ever been a question that Western leaders are powerless to stop Russia directly, unless they want to go about risking global, nuclear conflict.

That being said, they will likely continue to provide military aid packages (like Biden has), which will greatly reinforce their military.

I also think it's a very realistic possibility that Ukraine will win this, personally.

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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