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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6

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27 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

That being said, they will likely continue to provide military aid packages (like Biden has), which will greatly reinforce their military.

I also think it's a very realistic possibility that Ukraine will win this, personally.

Ukrainian forces have no chance of winning in eastern Ukraine. The terrain in the Donbas — fewer suburbs, more open land — affords the defenders fewer advantages. No matter how much weapons we are sending, it likely will make very little difference. In the east, Russia can concentrate its forces and move toward battles in which their superior artillery and air force can be used to devastating effect.  The Ukrainian military has no way to replenish their forces. The higher their losses by trying to defend positions they have no capabilities to hold for long, the less able they will be able to defend the South and let alone Kyiv. Territorial successes in the Donbas will blunt the narrative of Russian military incompetence and give the Kremlin a plausible argument that its war has achieved something real. Western leaders are setting the table for the incoming defeat and will soon be looking for a way out.

Edited by Occult1
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19 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Demilitarization/De-Nazification is not incompatible with partitioning Ukraine.

Russia invaded and Russia needs to get out.

Russia has absolutely no legal claim to anything Ukrainian.

Demilitarization of Ukraine? None of Russia's business.

De-Nazification of Ukraine? None of Russia's business.

And nobody else's business either. 

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42 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Russia invaded and Russia needs to get out.

Russia has absolutely no legal claim to anything Ukrainian.

Demilitarization of Ukraine? None of Russia's business.

De-Nazification of Ukraine? None of Russia's business.

And nobody else's business either. 

Iraq was a sovereign country before the U.S/Britain/Australia/Poland decided to invade it in 2003.

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16 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Boris Johnson admits Russian victory in Ukraine is ‘a realistic possibility’ as Putin steps up onslaught

A Russian victory in Ukraine is a “realistic possibility”, Boris Johnson said on Friday, as Vladimir Putin steps up his onslaught on eastern Ukraine.

Speaking in New Delhi, on the second day of his two day visit to India, the Prime Minister said he agreed with an assessment from Western security officials that the Kremlin’s renewed focus on the Donbas could allow the Russian president to claim victory.

“Yes, I mean, look, I think the sad thing is that that is a realistic possibility,” he said.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/joe-biden-tells-vladimir-putin-063102427.html

 

Western leaders are slowly, grudgingly admitting that there is nothing they can do to stop Russia.

Interesting fact the yardstick HMG uses to measure probability has 'realistic possibility as 40-50%. In other words they think Russia is more likely to fail their scaled back objectives than succeed. 

Also worth noting that when this war started the assessment was that Russia was 'highly likely' (80-90%) to succeed.

 

PHIA-Probability-Yardstick-22.png

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1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

The Ukrainian military has no way to replenish their forces.

Ukraine has 900,000 reserve volunteers it hasn't called up yet.

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2 minutes ago, Setton said:

Ukraine has 900,000 reserve volunteers it hasn't called up yet.

That's just reserve - imagine international volunteers who would volunteer if there was a dire need for such reinforcements.

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1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

That's BS. MANPADs provide a significant defence against low-altitude, slow-moving aircraft such as helicopters, and even bombers.

It's not BS you just refuse to admit you dont know or understand the situation in Ukraine.  Without Ukraine's extensive SAM network forcing the Russian aircraft to fly low that the MANPADs would be near useless.  Also ignores the fact that Ukraine already had extensive close range anti-air capabilities and thousands of MANPADs before the invasion.

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Don't forget the NATO-supplied SA-8/10/12/14 air defence vehicles.

Where is your proof that NATO has supplied those cause I highly suspect you dont even know what those are.  Cause SA-8 are Osa which Ukraine already had a decent amount of, SA-10 and SA-12 are both the S-300 system which only one battery has been supplied, and SA-14 is strela-3 another MANPAD system.

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

So Ukraine only wants a no-fly zone implemented over "significant parts of Ukraine" only because they want the war to end, and not because they can't take care of the air defence themselves? Interesting that Zelensky followed up with a request for more missile defence systems, then, after NATO rejected his request to instate the no-fly zone.

How shocking that Zelensky is asking for more weapon systems.  He is also asking for more armored vehicles of all kinds, more anti-tank missiles, and more small arms.  It's almost as if he is just trying to get everything he can get to help defend his country.

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Who is responsible for verifying the authenticity of the photos?

Another person doing the whole wanting proof but when provided hand waving it away as it cant be verified or it's just western/Ukranian propaganda.  

The pictures are rather solid confirmation, but if you dont want to believe them then dont but I'm not going to bother supplying proof yet again to another person who just hand waves it away cause it goes against your position.

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

No, but considering how many helicopters are at their disposal, I'd find it very difficult to believe that the destroyed helicopter photographs depict a significant amount of choppers that have actually been used by Russia against Ukraine.

Once again showing your ignorance of the military situation.  For helicopters specifically before the war Russia had in grand total 1,530 helicopters.  Helicopters are rather resource intense to keep flying.  There are only so many air fields within range of the conflict that can be used.  While Russia has a total of 1,530 helicopters at most only a couple hundred can be brought to bare due to Russia's logistical limitations, Russia hasnt built any new facilities or moved in the required equipment to service more helicopters than what was already present before the invasion.  There are pictures proving beyond doubt that at minimum 37 Russian helicopters have been shot down but that is just a subset of the total amount of helicopters lost as the total will include helicopters shot down where pictures arent possible to get and helicopters damaged that made it back to base but can no longer be used.  Given that Russia can only bring to bear a fraction of their total inventory and that a subset of lost helicopters is at 37 then it can safely between 10% and 25% of their helicopters which goes with American and NATO estimates of Russia losing approximately 20% of its combat ability in Ukraine so far.

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

We have the US and NATO to thank for that. Their provided MANPADs and aerial defence vehicles have proven very effective against the low-flying vehicles like helicopters.

But you keep utterly ignoring that Ukraine already had those systems.  Before the Russuan invasion Ukraine had 1,000+ Zu-23-2, 300 Shilka, 48 Strela-1, 125 Osa, 150 Strela-10, 72 to 144 Buk, 70 Tunguska, 106 Tor for vehicle anti-air ability.  For MANPADs they had thousands of Strelas and Iglas.  This isn't even counting their S-300s, S-200s, and S-125s that are forcing the Russian airforce to fly jets low enough to be at risk of MANPADs and close range anti-air weapons.

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

So basic logical thinking is trusting that the pictures that you're seeing are actually pictures of Russian choppers that have been shot down, in Ukraine?

You going to push the conspiracy theory angle now that all those pictures are of Ukrainian helicopters.  Will love to see how you explain the Ka-52s, Mi-28s, and Mi-35s, cause Ukraine doesnt fly those.  But why let model of helicopters shot down get in the way of your conspiracy theory, or maybe you are just more ignorant of the situation than you want to admit.

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Some of those pictures that the site claims to be immobilized/destroyed aircraft may also not even be aircraft, given the orientation of the photo, lack of detail, etc. Also, try as they may, if a helicopter at low altitude gets smacked by a Stinger rocket or, hell, even a Javelin anti-tank missile, it's unlikely that the helicopter is going to make it far from Ukrainian lines. 

Once again just more of you waving away inconvenient proof that doesnt fit your narrative.

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Nope, I didn't know that. What source did you get that from?

Basic research, I'm not going to bother posting the air defense capabilities of every country in Europe to prove it.  It's not that hard to find out on your own.  Anyway you seem to have a tendency to just hand wave away proof that proves you wrong anyway.

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

There have been reports of Russia flying 200 sorties a day over Ukraine.

So one article with one sentence is what you are basing your argument of 200 sorties a day over Ukraine.  The problem is the article is wrong, the person who wrote it paraphrased the defense official wrong.

The author of the article you are citing took 200 sorties a day to automatically assume they were over Ukraine.  Other stuff from the briefing talk about how Russia is generally firing air launched cruise missiles from Russian territory.

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21 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

It's not BS you just refuse to admit you dont know or understand the situation in Ukraine. 

Your go-to is to tell people that they don't know what they are talking about when their opinion/claims differs from yours. You're on ignore, time-waste.

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2 hours ago, and then said:

No doubt he'll spend some time cheering for the Russians while casting it as the "best thing" for the Ukrainians but until Vlad's troops have ALL of Ukraine, it is going to act as a blood-sponge for his forces.  You'd think Chechnya would have taught him some lessons.

Hi And Then

When I saw the 2 fires in Russia yesterday they were the first group that came to mind.

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15 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Your go-to is to tell people that they don't know what they are talking about when their opinion/claims differs from yours. You're on ignore, time-waste.

So when you get proven wrong you jump to ignore.  You presented essentially nothing to back up your opinion and just hand wave away anything that proves you wrong.

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1 hour ago, Setton said:

Ukraine has 900,000 reserve volunteers it hasn't called up yet.

However, how experienced or well-trained they are is the question.

I doubt Ukraine has the logistics to mobilize all these18-60 years old men and mount successful offensives in the east to reverse territorial losses.

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2 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

However, how experienced or well-trained they are is the question.

I doubt Ukraine has the logistics to mobilize all these18-60 years old men and mount successful offensives in the east to reverse territorial losses.

You do understand that the reserves and the 18-60 year old men are two completely different groups right.

A significant number of those 900,000 reserves are veterans from the past 8 years of fighting.  They got a good bit of experience and are decently trained.

The 18-60 year old men group are from the general population.  They will generally have no experience and will need training but they wont be any different than other new recruits.

Since it takes time to call up, retrain, and organize reserves into combat units within the next few weeks it can be expected the Ukranian military will have another 100,000 combatants.  By the end of summer probably another 200,000 to 300,000.  If this war last a year as a lot of intelligence agencies are predicting than unless Russia formally declared war and starts bringing in their conscript force they will go from approximately a one-to-one ratio with the Ukranian military to being outnumbered three or five-to- one by winter/next spring.

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2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Western leaders are setting the table for the incoming defeat and will soon be looking for a way out.

You actually believe that, don't you?  You know what I believe?  I think Russian forces are going to continue to bleed and die in large numbers for months or longer unless Putin decides to actually take control of every square inch of Ukraine.  EVEN THEN, there is no guarantee there won't be an effective insurgency that causes him to beg for peace.  The war for Ukraine isn't ending, hell, it's just beginning.

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1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Your go-to is to tell people that they don't know what they are talking about when their opinion/claims differs from yours. You're on ignore, time-waste.

You are now officially on the ''Pro-Russian troll'' list for raising too many inconvenient points. Welcome home.

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2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Iraq was a sovereign country before the U.S/Britain/Australia/Poland decided to invade it in 2003.

Yeah, unfortunately, it was a sovereign country that invaded ANOTHER sovereign country to steal its resources.  Were there Nazis in Kuwait? I have trouble keeping it all straight ;)

 

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5 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

You are now officially on the ''Pro-Russian troll'' list for raising too many inconvenient points. Welcome home.

Nah, he’s just plain wrong.

It’s not strictly the points you bring up that make you an obvious Russian bot, it’s the jargon you spout. It comes straight from the Kremlin.

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15 minutes ago, and then said:

Yeah, unfortunately, it was a sovereign country that invaded ANOTHER sovereign country to steal its resources.  Were there Nazis in Kuwait? I have trouble keeping it all straight ;)

 

The Iraq war was illegal under international law and breached the U.N. charter.

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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

So when you get proven wrong you jump to ignore.  You presented essentially nothing to back up your opinion and just hand wave away anything that proves you wrong.

I decided against it - you're right, it was childish. My bad. I was wrong.

I thought I knew more than I actually did, I guess. Might as well use it as an opportunity to learn.

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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44 minutes ago, and then said:

Yeah, unfortunately, it was a sovereign country that invaded ANOTHER sovereign country to steal its resources.  Were there Nazis in Kuwait? I have trouble keeping it all straight ;)

 

That was in the 90s under Bush senior. 2003 is all another matter....

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On 4/20/2022 at 7:50 PM, Occult1 said:

For those who claim that Russian is only in Ukraine for the ''land grab'' are completely ignoring the plight of the Donbass people, who want nothing to do with the Ukrainian state.

Ah yeah sorry to be late to your flamebait party with you trying to draw me in since I said that. Seems I don't have time these days to debate petty shitz like I use to. So might be a while before I respond back.

Anyhoo, yeah, naw man he wouldn't be trying to make a land bridge facing the sea if that were the main case. Hell man, he's been trying to take Odessa. WTF does he want Odessa for if he's not going for a land grab facing the sea? And his past historical land grab speaks volumes. So yeah, it's easy to see what the POS dictator is up to. It's way too obvious. The POS is showing his true colors by his actions man. No doubt about it. He's a raider taking what he can, when he can.

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Russia says Ukrainian fighters 'securely blockaded' at Mariupol steel plant

LONDON, April 22 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that Ukrainian fighters and foreign mercenaries had been "securely blockaded" at the Azovstal steel plant where they have been holding out in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

The defence ministry also said Russia had hit dozens of targets in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions of Ukraine on Friday.

[...]

"All remnants of the Ukrainian 'Azov' Nazis, together with foreign mercenaries from the United States and European countries, are securely blockaded on the territory of the Azovstal plant," it said.

"The Nazis are ignoring our demands to release the women and children allegedly with them to travel freely in any direction."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukrainian-fighters-securely-blockaded-mariupol-steel-plant-2022-04-22/

 

I can understand - to some extent - why Azov Neo-Nazis would prefer to live in cold, damp underground caves over surrendering to Russia but why trapping innocent civilians with them?

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3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Iraq was a sovereign country before the U.S/Britain/Australia/Poland decided to invade it in 2003.

Yes. 
and that was wrong too. 

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1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

The Iraq war was illegal under international law and breached the U.N. charter.

Iraq was financing terrorists at that time as well which played a part in how things went down.

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1 hour ago, and then said:

Yeah, unfortunately, it was a sovereign country that invaded ANOTHER sovereign country to steal its resources.  Were there Nazis in Kuwait? I have trouble keeping it all straight ;)

On the 24 July, the Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs, Margaret Tutwiler, told journalists, "We do not have any defense treaties with Kuwait, and there are no special defense or security commitments to Kuwait.[11]" On the 25 July, Saddam Hussein held a meeting with American diplomat April Glaspie. During the interview, April said, "we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait" and "we should express no opinion on this issue and that the issue is not associated with America.[12]" Many historians believe that these comments green lighted Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. In response to these accusations, April said, "Obviously, I didn't think, and nobody else did, that the Iraqis were going to take ALL of Kuwait.[13]" Under testimony, she said, "we foolishly did not realize he was stupid, that he did not believe our clear and repeated warnings that we would support our vital interests.[14]" 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationale_for_the_Persian_Gulf_war#Prelude

US foreign policy does not care about sovereign countries being invaded. It didn’t care about in the Middle East and it doesn’t care about it in Europe. US foreign policy only cares about US foreign interests. These sugar-coated rationals are for consumption by the masses. 

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32 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I can understand - to some extent - why Azov Neo-Nazis would prefer to live in cold, damp underground caves over surrendering to Russia but why trapping innocent civilians with them?

It's not like Russia has committed multiple massacres against the Ukranian civilian population and intercepted communications of Russian soldiers bragging how they have executed Ukranian civilians who had family or friends who joined Azov.  

The civilians are probably safer under ground with Azov than being above ground with the Russian military.

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