Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[Coil]

59 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

I was just stating my opinion on what Russia would do. I didn't say not to send the material nor did I say to send it. I'm all for helping Ukraine but there shall be consequences.

You have no idea how Russians rejoice on forums when someone is afraid to help Ukraine in order not to get hit by Russia. They become smug that they can bend someone with just political statements.I'll tell you that in fact those European countries that refuse to help Ukraine are simply well fed by Russia.

 

[+Razman]

3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

So Russia has only invaded former Soviet states.

As far as i understand it Ukraine been separated from Russia for at least 30 years. So all of a sudden 30 years later they gonna try to redraw the lines? 

[Occult1]

1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

Except that China isnt a global superpower, they have no ability to actually project power beyond their borders.

China has the world’s second-largest economy, a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council, a modernised armed force and an ambitious space programme.

China has the potential to replace the United States as the greatest superpower in the future.

Quote

there is good reason to suspect a decent chunk of Russia's nuclear arsenal probably isnt even functional

I wouldn't bet on that. The U.S. and Russia have both spent billions upgrading their nuclear weapons in recent years, and nearly 90 percent of Russia’s nuclear stockpile has been modernized, including the development of new weapons and the installation of new cruise-missile systems on its bombers.  They can deploy at least 1,500 warheads on hundreds of missiles based from air, land, and sea platforms that can strike the entire North American continent.

Risking a nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine is pure folly, as is underestimating their capabilities.

Edited April 29, 2022 by Occult1

[Grey Area]

16 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Risking a nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine is pure folly, as is underestimating their capabilities.

Underestimate?  Russia has been overestimated, significantly, for years.  There is only the risk of nukes because that’s all they have to threaten with.  

[Coil]

 

[DarkHunter]

49 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

China has the world’s second-largest economy, a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council, a modernised armed force and an ambitious space programme.

China has the potential to replace the United States as the greatest superpower in the future.

China also has essentially zero logistical ability.  They have few to none transport aircraft and few logistical ships.  China's entire military might is limited to essentially China's border.

51 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I wouldn't bet on that. The U.S. and Russia have both spent billions upgrading their nuclear weapons in recent years, and nearly 90 percent of Russia’s nuclear stockpile has been modernized, including the development of new weapons and the installation of new cruise-missile systems on its bombers.  They can deploy at least 1,500 warheads on hundreds of missiles based from air, land, and sea platforms that can strike the entire North American continent.

Russia also spent billions modernizing their conventional military yet they have soldiers who are give body armor with just the plate carrier and no plates, precision guided munitions that fail between 30% and 60% of the time, tires that literally fell apart after only a couple of tens of miles of driving.  Russia has a severe corruption problem and just cause they spent billions of dollars on something doesnt mean the money actually went to that and not some generals bank account.

54 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Risking a nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine is pure folly, as is underestimating their capabilities.

Cause Russia has shown to be such a military powerhouse with this failure of an invasion.  I know you desperately want people to fear Russia, shiver at their threats, and immediately give in to their demands without question but the reality is Russia has destroyed their reputation and no one will fear them anymore.  Russia has shown themselves to be nothing more than smoke and mirrors, a paper tiger with no bite.

[Black Red Devil]

3 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

 

I think you are incorrect to characterize the West helping Ukraine as an obligation.  It is a once in a generation opportunity for the West.  Individuals can empathize  and help others out of a sense of morality. Nations do not. 

Geopolitics  never goes away.  We have been in conflict with Russia since WWII.  The blue chips in this world poker game are control of natural resources and productivity,  There are only so many to go around. The red chips are influence and the goodwill of populations.  

Putin is logical and calculating.  His pile of chips has been dwindling, he needed to win a hand or he will become a minor player at best. He read the cards wrong and just made a big bet with a substantial portion of his chips.

Unexpectedly, Ukraine did not fold but called his bluff.  Unfortunately, their pile of chips was not big enough.

All of the rest of the countries sitting around the table see a golden opportunity.  If they loan Ukraine a few chips each, it is Ukraine that stands against Russia and may win  the hand and owe a debt to all of the other players. 

For  everybody except Ukraine, it is the cheapest way possible to erode Putin's pile of chips.  If the US gives $30 billion dollars, that is a flyspeck of what a war would cost us, and the gain is huge.

Ukraine with its resources, productivity and goodwill of its people  will be linked closer to the West for the next few generations  The  West stands to gain control of some of Russian resources and production, and just as important, elimination of one of the big players in the game. Not to mention closer ties between a number of Western nations who will be free to focus more attention on the other powerful player, China.

The rational answer is not that the West is doing this for Ukraine, but for their own massive gains at the expense of Russia. 

 

 

Good casino analogy.  Once, when I lost lots of chips I went home and got clipped across the ears from the mrs.  Too bad Putin doesn't have someone similar at home. 

[Black Red Devil]

2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

 

China has the potential to replace the United States as the greatest superpower in the future.

 

Look up the numbers mate.  The US spends more on their Defense Budget than the next 11 countries combined. It's not swords and shields anymore and we saw in this war that the advantage in infantry numbers are useless if you get repelled by superior tactics and technology and China doesn't even come close to the superior air and naval forces the US has. 

Add to that the other NATO countries, especially France and the UK.  It's no surprise China is observing and staying well away from getting involved in this war.  They're probably re-thinking their moves on Taiwan.

 

[Occult1]

13 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

Look up the numbers mate.  The US spends more on their Defense Budget than the next 11 countries combined. It's not swords and shields anymore and we saw in this war that the advantage in infantry numbers are useless if you get repelled by superior tactics and technology and China doesn't even come close to the superior air and naval forces the US has.

 

You are right. But we all know where WW3 would lead to: global nuclear war. The destruction would be massive. I don't think anyone can claim ''victory'' in that.

It was President Ronald Reagan who declared in his 1985 State of the Union address that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”.

Edited April 29, 2022 by Occult1

[Black Red Devil]

1 minute ago, Occult1 said:

You are right. But we all know where WW3 would lead to: global nuclear war. The destruction would be massive. I don't think anyone can claim ''victory'' in that.

It was President Ronald Reagan who declared in his 1985 State of the Union address that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”.

Now, that is good rationality but you seem to miss the jump from THAT to 'Putin is the one threatening with nuclear strikes'.

[Occult1]

1 minute ago, Black Red Devil said:

Now, that is good rationality but you seem to miss the jump from THAT to 'Putin is the one threatening with nuclear strikes'.

It's a reminder that you don’t go to war at all if it’s between two nuclear nations.

[spartan max2]

26 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

Now, that is good rationality but you seem to miss the jump from THAT to 'Putin is the one threatening with nuclear strikes'.

In fact, Putin is the only one out of all parties involved threatening Nukes.

Why do you think that is @Occult?

[ExpandMyMind]

6 hours ago, OverSword said:

Here is why.  Let this happen and within a few years China will take Taiwan.  In this day and age, military conquest for territory should be a thing of the past.  The world can not put up with this bull ****.

There’s no way the west would allow this. If you think they’re supporting Ukraine, you’ve seen nothing.

Taiwan are producers of vital micro-processing tech that is absolutely vital to the function of our societies. It’s a completely different ballgame.

[ExpandMyMind]

5 hours ago, Occult1 said:

China Calls Russia Relationship a ‘New Model’ for the World

China stepped up its rhetorical support for Russia, defying the U.S. and other nations who want Beijing to condemn Moscow for the war in Ukraine.

“An important takeaway from the success of China-Russia relations is that the two sides rise above the model of military and political alliance in the Cold War era,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said, adding that they “commit themselves to developing a new model of international relations.”

[...]

He added that this was different from the “Cold War mentality” displayed by certain countries -- Beijing’s standard criticism of U.S. cooperation with blocs like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, whose expansion Beijing says led to Russia’s attack.''

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-29/china-calls-russia-relationship-a-new-model-for-the-world

 

What many people forget in all this is that Russia doesn't stand alone. China is united with Russia against NATO expansionism.

WW3 (as some people here are promoting) would involve not only facing the country with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world (Russia) but also a global superpower (China).

What's so special about Ukraine ( who was a part of the Soviet union since the 1920s) that's worth taking that risk?

God, this is so naive. The only things China cares about are keeping their citizens indoctrinated and in line, and making money.

What they see in this conflict with Russia is the chance to make bank. They ‘sort of’ support Russia and receive gas and oil and investment opportunities at rock bottom rates. Then, if Russia fail, they are there, close at hand, to scoop up the rewards.

They basically want Russia to be a vassal state. Right now, China ****ing own future Russia, no matter the outcome.

Imagine a Russia supporter thinking the Chinese are on their side. Do you even know the first thing about the history of relations between the two nations? Apparently not.

[ExpandMyMind]

4 hours ago, Coil said:

You have no idea how Russians rejoice on forums when someone is afraid to help Ukraine in order not to get hit by Russia. They become smug that they can bend someone with just political statements.I'll tell you that in fact those European countries that refuse to help Ukraine are simply well fed by Russia.

 

I’ve seen this as well, btw. I’ve been keeping my finger to the pulse with regards to how the average Russian is responding to this war, and it’s actually scary. They’re completely brainwashed, and I’m not even using that term lightly. They believe Ukrainians to be pure evil, Nazi, baby-eating (literally in some cases) monsters. It’s madness, but you only have to watch their state sponsored TV or read their state sponsored news articles to see it for yourselves.

I feel more sympathy for the hoodwinked Russian population of 1938 than I do the sick ****s in Russia right now. At least in 1938 they didn’t have access to the wealth of knowledge everyone now does.

[ExpandMyMind]

4 hours ago, Occult1 said:

China has the potential to replace the United States as the greatest superpower in the future.

Quote

China is only powerful because we allow it. They have gotten fat from our pockets.

If they seriously decided to take a hard line against the west, they would be replaced by countless other cheap labour producing nations. See how much they want to throw their weight around when we start dealing with India - their largest competitor and enemy - for manufacturing over them.

It’s been two months and almost all of Europe are on the way to cutting out dependence on Russian gas, something vital to each of us. That will frighten the life out of China. Don’t think we wouldn’t do the same to them if the situation warranted it.

China is not friend of Russia and Putin. They’ll push things as far as they can to make as much money as they can, but they hate Russia and will drop you like an anvil when the time comes.

[Tatetopa]

25 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

They basically want Russia to be a vassal state. Right now, China ****ing own future Russia, no matter the outcome.

Unless.

If Russia goes too far and starts a shooting war with NATO, it could result in their defeat and occupation by Western powers, cities, oil fields and all. 

[ExpandMyMind]

Just now, Tatetopa said:

Unless.

If Russia goes too far and starts a shooting war with NATO, it could result in their defeat and occupation by Western powers, cities, oil fields and all. 

I actually think there might be a good chance that the US has contingency plans. I don’t know if they’d be effective, but @DarkHunterbrought up a really good point about MAD and the US’ evolution from simply mutually assured destruction.

[Black Red Devil]

8 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Western nations have to be one step ahead of Putin and his tactics. Remove his options before he has time to implement them.

He started off in a reasonable position with forces ranged and plans made for invasion, since then he has been increasingly on the back foot.

That has to continue and go further. To the point he is boxed in and without options up to and including when he loses.

Also making it plain that an instant response to escalated aggression by Putin will be used and not discussed first. 

The method is escalation dominance. His only option should be a political climb down and forced to behave in a more internationalist fashion.

How he spins this in Russia is his problem.

But I am sure no longer using force can be sold as the Russians being the less aggressive and more reasonable nation by Putin. 

 

 

I agree, there's always that possibility he gets too 'boxed in' and starts pushing buttons out of desperation.  Depends a lot on what expert analysts in the west know and how much control he has over the rest of the decision makers in Russia.  The best tactic for Ukraine and the west is to protect the civilians, limit his gains and turn this invasion into an inexorable, grinding financial nightmare for the Russians.

[DarkHunter]

Ukranian forces have liberated more towns around Kharkiv, rest of the areas there hasnt really been any change in held territory.

British intelligence is thinking its possible Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine during the May 9 victory parade.

Putin declaring war on Ukraine would arguably be the single dumbest thing he could do.  It would allow Ukraine to bring in its conscript force but they are at best poorly trained and at worst have no training what so ever.  Losses on the Russian side would sky rocket to insane levels.  The worst aspect though is that Putin would completely lose the control he has over the invasion.  Currently with the invasion remaining a special military operation Putin can end it whenever he feels like but if he declares war than the Russian government decides when the war will end.  

It does seem safe something will happen on May 9, just not clear what.

[Occult1]

3 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

In fact, Putin is the only one out of all parties involved threatening Nukes.

Why do you think that is @Occult?

Nuke serves to deter NATO.

If the prospect of nuclear warefare can keep NATO out of Ukraine, Russia will keep brandishing it.

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by Occult1

[spartan max2]

2 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Nuke serves to deter NATO.

If the prospect of nuclear warefare can keep NATO out of Ukraine, Russia will keep brandishing it.

 

You didn't answer the question.

Why is Putin the only player who is using nukes as a threat?

Do you not find it interesting that the West, who has immensely more Nukes than Russia, had not used that as a threat or deterent strategy against Russia in Ukraine ?

Surely nuclear war and the annihilation of Russia would also be a concern for someone in Russia 

Edited April 30, 2022 by spartan max2

[Occult1]

27 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

You didn't answer the question.

Why is Putin the only player who is using nukes as a threat?

Do you not find it interesting that the West, who has immensely more Nukes than Russia, had not used that as a threat or deterent strategy against Russia in Ukraine ?

It's a matter of doctrine. Russia has several conditions in which nukes can be authorized.

''And the fourth case is when an act of aggression is committed against Russia and its allies, which jeopardised the existence of the country itself, even without the use of nuclear weapons, that is, with the use of conventional weapons.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/26/russia-reasserts-right-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine-putin?ref=tjournal.ru

If NATO attacks Russia in Ukraine, technically the Russian country is under existential threat. This raises the prospect of nuclear warfare.

 

The U.S/NATO also have their own set of conditions for nuclear deterence.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm

Edited April 30, 2022 by Occult1

[spartan max2]

15 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

It's a matter of doctrine. Russia has several conditions in which nukes can be authorized.

''And the fourth case is when an act of aggression is committed against Russia and its allies, which jeopardised the existence of the country itself, even without the use of nuclear weapons, that is, with the use of conventional weapons.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/26/russia-reasserts-right-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine-putin?ref=tjournal.ru

If NATO attacks Russia in Ukraine, technically the Russian country is under existential threat. This raises the prospect of nuclear warfare.

 

The U.S/NATO also have their own set of conditions for nuclear deterence.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm

You're avoiding the question.

But I also can't help but laught at this part.

Quote

And the fourth case is when an act of aggression is committed against Russia and its allies, which jeopardised the existence of the country itself, even without the use of nuclear weapons, that is, with the use of conventional weapons.”

Only a morons would think that weapons and/or troops in Ukraine would jeopardize the existence of Russia.

What does jeopardize it are nukes though.... So Putin is a horrible leader putting his nation in danger by even mentioning Nukes 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by spartan max2

[+and-then]

3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

It's a reminder that you don’t go to war at all if it’s between two nuclear nations.

That is predicated on the actions being reciprocal between those nations.  If one begins to think they can bluff, all of that goes away.