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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6

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Again with this nonsense of Kaliningrad? Seriously?

Russia is not blocked by land, sanctions do not stop Russia from using Lithuanian roads and railroads. What they move/transport is material that is not on the list of sanctiones materials.

People, food, medicine and other materials are still allowed. Metal and.militar equipment ate banned.

 

Edited by godnodog
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5 minutes ago, godnodog said:

Again with this nonsense of Kaliningrad? Seriously?

Russia is not blocked by land, sanctions do not stop Russia from using Lithuanian roads and railroads. What they move/transport is material that is on the list of sanctiones materials.

People, food, medicine and other materials are still allowed. Metal and.militar equipment ate banned.

 

Yea but the big bad EU are bullying poor little Ruzzia with their nasty sanctions, what did Ruzzia do to deserve such a thing? :cry:

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11 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Short answer: Yes.

 

Long answer:  

Up to Feb 23rd this year, I would be certain that's saber rattling nonsense. 

Since Feb 24th this year, I know nothing's too stupid for Russia. They plan to attack a NATO country.

It's illogical, especially in their situation (they want to open the second front with their crippled army - against NATO no less), but their actions can't be predicted anymore by relying on what's logical. Russian "logic" consists of belief in the myths they created (their missiles are unstoppable, their men genetically superior, everyone in the West will rise up against own governments in fear and awe of Putin's greatness).  

BUT. 

Big but. It's possible that this is an attempt to create that panic in the West their myth foretells. Without intention to ever really attack NATO, they will posture as if they will. Until civil unrest lead by "pacifists" in the West force western governments to acknowledge Russian superiority, or the same assets overthrow western governments.  

Now a bigger but. 

Since Feb 24th, it's clear that Putin is disastrous strategist and Russian army is semi-organized. Their only advantage is willingness to waste men and materiel and the size of their soviet arsenal (it's ancient but it still explodes). It brings me back to start, where I realized that logic is not a factor. Putin might easily actually attack NATO, because he refuses to acknowledge that we all saw what Russian army really is. He will attack to "prove" that Russia can defeat NATO.  

In this soviet meeting, we can see a young Putin expressing the same myths of invincibility and a scared paralyzed west. 

 

I know it's a repost but I find this fitting.

Edited by Poncho_Peanatus
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I'm a bit surprised no one has mentioned that Kaliningrad has an airfield and a port.  While Lithuania is stopping Russia from transporting certain materials using Lithuanian infrastructure and over Lithuanian territory it's rather hard to argue there is a blockade of Kaliningrad when Russia can fly in or deliver by cargo ship whatever they want to Kaliningrad grad.  It might be annoying and not the cheapest option but Russia could do it.

Maybe not fly in since a lot of the Russian civilian planes have been grounded as Russia isnt able to import parts to maintain them and they have already been forced to cannibalize civilian airlines and cargo planes for parts just to keep some planes flying but they can still ship stuff into Kaliningrad for now till their ships start breaking down that is.

Edited by DarkHunter
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It's ironic, really. A peaceful, democratic Russia could have joined the E.U. and NATO and have had all the peace and security it can only dream of, now. It could have been the leader of a Northern Hemisphere colossus, instead of the pariah State it has become over the last 15 years.

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4 hours ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

I know mods dont like it when I or others say this but I dont care. Hes a blatant troll. He contradicts himself just like Occult.

It’s interesting to me that as soon as occult disappears midge pops up in full force. 

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2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

I'm a bit surprised no one has mentioned that Kaliningrad has an airfield and a port.  While Lithuania is stopping Russia from transporting certain materials using Lithuanian infrastructure and over Lithuanian territory it's rather hard to argue there is a blockade of Kaliningrad when Russia can fly in or deliver by cargo ship whatever they want to Kaliningrad grad.  It might be annoying and not the cheapest option but Russia could do it.

Maybe not fly in since a lot of the Russian civilian planes have been grounded as Russia isnt able to import parts to maintain them and they have already been forced to cannibalize civilian airlines and cargo planes for parts just to keep some planes flying but they can still ship stuff into Kaliningrad for now till their ships start breaking down that is.

Do you think Lithuania is going to make concessions?

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A new 'Iron Curtain is already descending' between Russia and the West after Ukraine invasion, Putin's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov warns….…..

……The original 'Iron Curtain' described the way Soviet Union and allied eastern European states sealed off contact with the West after the Second World War.

Now, Western nations have begun cutting themselves off from Russia and its allies over the war in Ukraine, arguing it is a threat to global security and established order.

Lavrov sought to dismiss Russia's growing isolation today, saying Moscow has not had any diplomatic relations with the EU since it last attacked Ukraine in 2014.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10969863/New-Iron-Curtain-descending-Europe-Russian-foreign-minister-says.html

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First Cargo Ship Leaves Ukraine's Occupied Port of Berdyansk

A first cargo ship has left the Russian-occupied Ukrainian port of Berdyansk, a local official said on Thursday, after Russia said the port had been de-mined and was ready to resume grain shipments.

"After a stoppage of several months the first cargo ship has left the Berdyansk port," Yevgeny Balitsky, a Russian-installed official in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, wrote on the Telegram messaging service.

Russia's TASS and RIA news agencies cited Balitsky as saying the first cargo ship to leave Berdyansk was carrying 7,000 tonnes of grain to "friendly countries". But an edited Telegram post by Balitsky seen by Reuters did not say what cargo the ship was carrying.

https://www.marinelink.com/news/first-cargo-ship-leaves-ukraines-occupied-497778

 

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Terrified” South Sudanese beg for food as Ukraine war halts aid

Kapoeta, South Sudan — Global leaders at the G7 summit pledged $4.5 billion this week to battle food insecurity worldwide. That help can’t come soon enough for millions of people in South Sudan who are on the brink of starvation. 

CBS News foreign correspondent Debora Patta visited one of the hardest hit regions. She arrived just after the first rainfall in 18 months — cause for celebration that brought local children out to dance in the streets.

But the greenery belies a drought-stricken village. In the farm fields all around, the soil is bone dry. 

Nachopera Lomuria once lived off the land, but she told Patta nothing grows in the parched earth any more. Her mother starved to death last year, and Lomuria is convinced that she’s next…..

…..We heard they stopped the assistance because the White people are at war,” she told Patta.

There’s a lot of truth in that rumor. The market couldn’t be further away from Ukraine, but Vladimir Putin’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports has had a direct impact on the cost of food in South Sudan. Ukraine has long been a key supplier of grain to the world, but it has been unable to ship those vital food supplies to Africa and other regions because of the blockade.

The crisis has helped to send the cost of staple goods soaring nearly 100% in South Sudan.

http://sandhillsexpress.com/cbs_world/terrified-south-sudanese-beg-for-food-as-ukraine-war-halts-aid-cbsid4d3daf37/

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Resolving Ukraine export grain crisis could be key to ending war


The world is heading towards a recession triggered by the war in Ukraine and its related sanctions, the disruption of industrial and agricultural activities in China, volatile stock markets, a slowdown in world trade, and sharp rises in inflation.

The single most negative development is the ongoing failure to export grain from Ukraine…..

….This leaves only two military options, the first would be a ‘coalition of the willing’, led by the US, the UK, France and Germany, with sufficient naval and air forces, if necessary, to confront Russia and break the blockade. If this happens, we will all be in a very dangerous place. 

Remember; we have been there before. During the Cuban missile crisis in Oct ’62, the situation was the other way round, the USSR threatened to break the US blockade of Cuba. 

On that occasion Khrushchev backed down and Kennedy was the official hero of the hour. This time around, who would blink first, Biden or Putin?….

….Some defence analysts regard a Russia Nato war as increasingly unavoidable. In my view it is possible, but not inevitable.

On the other hand, a successful negotiated solution on the grain issue could have a positive outcome. Apart from leading to a drop in world food prices, it could create a diplomatic momentum for an internationally supervised, (UN or OSCE?) general ceasefire in the war. 

This would be followed up by disengagements of forces, followed up by troop withdrawals to agreed positions in tandem with step-by-step reductions in sanctions, and finally peace talks.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40907114.html

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June 30 (Reuters) - Russia is using inaccurate missiles from old Soviet stocks for more than 50% of its strikes in Ukraine and the rate of the strikes has more than doubled in the last two weeks, a brigadier general in Ukraine's armed forces said on Thursday.

Russian missiles have hit an array of targets in Ukraine in recent days, killing one civilian at an apartment block in Kyiv on Saturday and at least 18 more at a shopping centre in the central city of Kremenchuk on Monday.…..

….Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov told a news conference on Thursday that Russia was trying to hit military and critical infrastructure, but that the use of old Soviet missiles that are less accurate was leading to significant loss of civilian life.

His analysis diverged from that of some Ukrainian politicians who accuse Russia of deliberately striking civilians to sow panic.

"The enemy's targets remain military facilities, critical infrastructure and industry, transport networks. At the same time, the civilian population is suffering significant losses due to (poorly targeted) strikes," Hromov said.

"To carry out rocket strikes, the enemy in more than 50% (of cases) is using missiles from the Soviet reserve, which are not sufficiently precise. As a result, civilian buildings are being hit."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-russia-ramping-ukraine-strikes-162704400.html

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15 minutes ago, el midgetron said:

June 30 (Reuters) - Russia is using inaccurate missiles from old Soviet stocks for more than 50% of its strikes in Ukraine and the rate of the strikes has more than doubled in the last two weeks, a brigadier general in Ukraine's armed forces said on Thursday.

Russian missiles have hit an array of targets in Ukraine in recent days, killing one civilian at an apartment block in Kyiv on Saturday and at least 18 more at a shopping centre in the central city of Kremenchuk on Monday.…..

….Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov told a news conference on Thursday that Russia was trying to hit military and critical infrastructure, but that the use of old Soviet missiles that are less accurate was leading to significant loss of civilian life.

His analysis diverged from that of some Ukrainian politicians who accuse Russia of deliberately striking civilians to sow panic.

"The enemy's targets remain military facilities, critical infrastructure and industry, transport networks. At the same time, the civilian population is suffering significant losses due to (poorly targeted) strikes," Hromov said.

"To carry out rocket strikes, the enemy in more than 50% (of cases) is using missiles from the Soviet reserve, which are not sufficiently precise. As a result, civilian buildings are being hit."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-russia-ramping-ukraine-strikes-162704400.html

So even though they are not deliberately targeting civilians they are actively ignoring the accuracy of the missiles and firing them at “critical infrastructure” in dense population areas. It is clear that civilian lives are not a priority for them especially when they are using variants like the X-22 designed to target massive objects like aircraft carriers.  In a large city that allows for a huge margin of error in targeting considering how many large structure there are.

It is clear that Russia does not intentionally avoid civilian casualties, otherwise we would see more precision-based strikes rather than strikes using anti-ship missiles. 

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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4 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Do you think Lithuania is going to make concessions?

Hard to say.

The Lithuanian government probably wont be particularly interested in making any kind of concessions but its possible Germany could apply some pressure through the EU to cause some concessions.  

The big problem is that Russia has shown that it doesn't negotiate from a position of good faith and that they will use force or the threat of force to get concessions and some kind of agreement than just break the agreement anyway and use force or the threat of force to get more.

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15 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I don't think it will. As I said back in February to @Helen of Annoy throughout many of our impassioned discussions, Putin is not behaving rationally, so to try to apply rationality to him would be an error. If you really want to understand him, in my opinion, I recommend to read up on Narcissistic Personality Disorder - more specifically, the more extreme side of the spectrum. Putin also displays psychopathic traits. I'm no psychologist, but a former leader of Latvia (who was also a practising clinical psychologist) shared thoughts not dissimilar to what I had, originally, so I think there might be something to it.

 

It's true, I didn't believe he'd invade. I underestimated his mental issues.    

Yet he did invade. And Russia didn't rise up against brother-murdering war. I overestimated Russians. Now I seriously doubt they're Slavic. So the war isn't brother-murdering after all, their brothers are apparently various Buryats who share their fascination with washing machines.   

Which is why I think, since Feb 24th 4 AM, that Russia has to be isolated, defeated and demilitarized. Either Russians will realize they have to fight and possibly die for Russia - in Russia, instead of dying for Putin in someone's else home, either they will die out under the murderous kleptocracy they rather wouldn't pick fights with. I don't really care. All I care for is that they are neutralized. 

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35 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Hard to say.

The Lithuanian government probably wont be particularly interested in making any kind of concessions but its possible Germany could apply some pressure through the EU to cause some concessions.  

The big problem is that Russia has shown that it doesn't negotiate from a position of good faith and that they will use force or the threat of force to get concessions and some kind of agreement than just break the agreement anyway and use force or the threat of force to get more.

In which case it would look like Scholz is saying one thing and then doing the opposite. As seen before. 

You too were right in the beginning of this thread and I was wrong. It was not just caution due to history, it was actual unwillingness to severe ties with Putin's Russia. 

I want to believe that is changing, after it became apparent (and Scholz too said so) that there's no return to the relations with Russia as they were before Feb 24th. 

Pressuring Lithuania into allowing Russians not their only but their most convenient way to Kaliningrad would be protecting Russian interests. 

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Another day and more bad news for Vladdy:

"Ukraine Has Exposed Russia as a Not-So-Great Power"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-has-exposed-russia-as-a-not-so-great-power/ar-AAZ4j2t?ocid=msedgdhphdr&cvid=6cb81cd105ee45a09c373477c321f6a4

"NATO chief says Finland and Sweden being on the cusp of joining alliance shows Putin made a 'huge mistake' by invading Ukraine"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nato-chief-says-finland-and-sweden-being-on-the-cusp-of-joining-alliance-shows-putin-made-a-huge-mistake-by-invading-ukraine/ar-AAZ2Ug3?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e5c444b7b8d34f428b482bfaa371bd4b

The critical strategic failure cannot be emphasized enough. Putin wanted to fracture the bonds between NATO countries. Now, it is larger, stronger and even more united than before. Historic and catastrophic blunder on his part. Golf claps for Vladdy :lol:

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https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/1/7355836/

The invaders have been training to defend the "Crimean Bridge", which connects the Ukrainian peninsula with the Krasnodar Territory. The structure was covered with clouds of smoke and an accident occurred on the bridge.

...

According to Aksionov, there is no danger to people or the bridge. During the exercise, however, a traffic accident occurred on the bridge. Now the situation is controlled by the security forces.

 

 

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https://www.npr.org/2022/07/01/1106327585/russia-invasion-ukraine-environment-impacts

Shredded trees, dead dolphins and wildfires — how Russia's invasion is hurting nature

The country (Ukraine) has created a team of roughly 100 scientists, across 18 regional offices, who are tasked with documenting evidence of what it calls environmental war crimes.

In Zhytomyr, the task force's scientists are mostly women like Iryna Bereziuk, who monitored gas pipelines, industrial sites and air quality before Russia crossed the nearby Belarusian border in February. Now, they have to visit mine-littered woodlands, Russian-occupied areas and still-burning fuel depots to collect air, water and soil samples.

Each site is treated like a crime scene. Photos are taken. Interviews conducted. Samples collected. All of the evidence will be used, "to punish the aggressor in the international courts," says Oleksiy Obrizan, the task force's chairman.

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24 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Pressuring Lithuania into allowing Russians not their only but their most convenient way to Kaliningrad would be protecting Russian interests. 

I suspect Russia is going to use that as an opening for aggression, even though they can find another way to transport the sanctioned goods through other means. It seems like the perfect excuse to attempt to annex Lithuania. 

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Or he's too afraid of a child the plate with bread. Or he's afraid of bread. Or the possible poison in bread. :D  

 

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25 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I suspect Russia is going to use that as an opening for aggression, even though they can find another way to transport the sanctioned goods through other means. It seems like the perfect excuse to attempt to annex Lithuania. 

Indeed. But if Russia doesn't get to use that excuse, they'll make another one. 

Whether Russia will attack Lithuania doesn't depend on which particular excuse will be given, it depends only on Russian intention to attack or not. 

And that doesn't depend on realistic Russian capability, it depends on how exactly irrational is Putin. 

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8 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

I'm a bit surprised no one has mentioned that Kaliningrad has an airfield and a port.  While Lithuania is stopping Russia from transporting certain materials using Lithuanian infrastructure and over Lithuanian territory it's rather hard to argue there is a blockade of Kaliningrad when Russia can fly in or deliver by cargo ship whatever they want to Kaliningrad grad.  It might be annoying and not the cheapest option but Russia could do it.

Maybe not fly in since a lot of the Russian civilian planes have been grounded as Russia isnt able to import parts to maintain them and they have already been forced to cannibalize civilian airlines and cargo planes for parts just to keep some planes flying but they can still ship stuff into Kaliningrad for now till their ships start breaking down that is.

If I remember correctly when Lithuania got its independence one of the clauses for it was that Russia could transport what it liked using their railway.

So technically, Lithuania have violated that treaty, so it would be legal under International Law to invade them.

Edited by Cookie Monster
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Just now, Helen of Annoy said:

Or he's too afraid of a child the plate with bread. Or he's afraid of bread. Or the possible poison in bread. :D  

 

 

They don't even want to give him a hand.Neither the chef nor the North Korean leader.

 


---------------------------------------------------------


I don’t know if anyone mentioned here how much the Russians don’t want to fight with us. They dig a trench half a meter deep, lie on their backs and lift their legs up so that the Ukrainian soldiers wound them in the leg and then they will end up in the hospital. Some ask friends to break their fingers. Those who are smarter ask for leave to go home for family reasons and do not return.

 

Edited by Coil
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