Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[ThereWeAreThen]

9 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

I think China is by far the most dangerous.  They have numbers and technology. 

I guess but the problem they have is their forces still cant operate properly together, plus alot of their tech has been stolen from Ruzzia (which as we've seen in Ukraine is innaffective against Western tech).

[spartan max2]

I haven't checked in on Ukriane in a minute. What's the current situation. Any progress? Stalemate? Losing ground? 

[ThereWeAreThen]

3 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

I haven't checked in on Ukriane in a minute. What's the current situation. Any progress? Stalemate? Losing ground? 

Ukraine have carried out 2 attacks today in Crimea ~(one unconfirmed but likely), done a bit of digging theres a resistance group in Crimea called "Yellow Ribbon" who are behind the attacks it looks like, rumours of more attacks to happen. Ukraine have been hitting targets elsewhere looks like they're softening the orcs for a major a counter attack. Ruzzia just been shelling from what ive seen.

[Trelane]

2 hours ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

I think Iran will be the trickiest, they've got so many armed groups and allies in the ME it would be a nightmare. Dont think theres much of a appetite for a major deployment to the ME again.

The Iranians are cowards and would never attempt any sort of conventional conflict. Their main tactic really is creating armed insurgencies, trained by their proxies like Hezbollah.

[Trelane]

1 hour ago, Black Red Devil said:

I think China is by far the most dangerous.  They have numbers and technology. 

Numbers yes, trained? not really. Their technology has been evaluated as sufficient but not superior. The main item to note is they suffer from the same military command structures as the Russians. Meaning C2, command maintenance, and logistics would be a serious problem for them to be effective.

[ThereWeAreThen]

3 minutes ago, Trelane said:

Numbers yes, trained? not really. Their technology has been evaluated as sufficient but not superior. The main item to note is they suffer from the same military command structures as the Russians. Meaning C2, command maintenance, and logistics would be a serious problem for them to be effective.

This.

Its why I think Iran would be the toughest purely because they have proxies all over the ME. NATO doesn't have  the numbers anymore. The UK doesnt want to expand the military just wants to p*** money up against the wall and get some new toys.

[Helen of Annoy]

18 hours ago, OverSword said:

I am extremely interested in the Ukraine overcoming Russia as I think there should be no place for the taking over of sovereign nations in the 21st century.  the world is too small and weapons too powerful to be playing these stupid games any longer

That's what I needed to hear. Thank you for reassuring me. 

Everything else are technicalities and I apologize for preemptively growling at you   

[+OverSword]

34 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

That's what I needed to hear. Thank you for reassuring me. 

Everything else are technicalities and I apologize for preemptively growling at you   

It's fine, I understood what a sensitive subject this is for you.

[godnodog]

3 hours ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

I think Iran will be the trickiest, they've got so many armed groups and allies in the ME it would be a nightmare. Dont think theres much of a appetite for a major deployment to the ME again.

Iran is on the verge of signing a new accord with the EU regarding nuclear power. Their "alliance" with Russia is circumstancial only.

 

[Helen of Annoy]

17 hours ago, Hammerclaw said:

I certainly hope you're right, Helen. Myself, I'm not so sanguine about Europe easily losing its dependence on Russian gas. I'm particularly interested to see how long German industry can keep its lips off the Russian teat. Years of Merkel's collusion with Putin as she pranced and gavotted around him like a delighted schoolgirl can't be dismissed with a mere wave of the hand.

It won't be easy. It will be costly and chaotic. But there's awareness it must be done so it will be done, no matter the cost because the cost of dependence on russia is much higher, it means total damage for economy, sovereignty, reputation and any other aspect. russia destroys its satellites worse than its enemies (it's possible to fight russia off and rebuild, while it's impossible to have any semblance of civilized society or functioning economy in russian-controlled kleptocracies). 

 

The rant: 

Merkel is guilty for not changing the course, but she's not guilty for setting that course. In her defense, any changes would be advertised by russia as German hostility and it would be easy to blame Germany for any disruptions in EUropean energy market and it would look like they're doing it out paranoia and russophobia and whatnot. russians are world champions in advertising own "victimhood". 

Also, in Germany's defense, it seemed like a good idea to slowly coax russia towards civilization by offering them partnership. They made the same mistake I did - they believed putin is not that stupid to destroy such perfect position he's got, despite all his and his regime's faults. (It's quite possible to tame an animal if you treat it friendly and make it used to receive food from you. What many in EUrope didn't diagnose on time is that the animal in question is rabid.)

But it's also true that Ursula von der Leyen (current President of the EUropean Commission) accurately and publicly defined EU dependence on russian energy as russian tool for pressuring the entire EU, not just Germany. Especially Nord Stream 2, which - in the words of Bundeskanzler Scholz "has no chance of ever becoming operational".

On Feb 8th, Scholz still didn't want to say NS2 could be halted. On Feb 22nd, two days before the invasion, he stopped the approval for NS2. It is now a failed russian investment, pure loss without chance to ever become functional. It may seem too slow, but I do accept as realistic the need to let russia have the lead in their process of confrontation with the EU.    

Co-dependence means guarantee of peace, if all sides are sane. But putin's russia is not sane.  

I didn't believe putin will invade Ukraine until he did. (Because it's simply astonishingly stupid thing to do.)

So all the strategy and assumptions that may be excused as logical up to Feb 23rd stopped working on Feb 24th. 

It took almost half a year for everyone in EUrope to face the fact that the world as we knew it stopped existing on Feb 24th. But there's no doubt anymore. The business as usual is simply not possible anymore - because it's russia in the first place that prevents it. No matter how much various Schröders will try, it's their putin that's turning the gas off, because he cannot admit a mistake, so instead of blackmail he assessed will be successful, he has managed to p*** even Scholz off and - now this is important - lift the historic curse off Germany. 

They take "nie wieder" (never again, meaning: never again fascism/Nazism) very seriously. It is finally evident it's putin who is doing it "wieder" (again).   

Oh, this was long. Sorry about that. 

[ThereWeAreThen]

7 minutes ago, godnodog said:

Iran is on the verge of signing a new accord with the EU regarding nuclear power. Their "alliance" with Russia is circumstancial only.

 

Like Ruzzia/CCP to be honest. Theres so many cracks in the "alliance".

[Helen of Annoy]

It's already 9 hours old footage, but such aesthetic pleasure must not be denied to anyone. 

 

[Helen of Annoy]

 

[odas]

4 hours ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

I think Iran will be the trickiest, they've got so many armed groups and allies in the ME it would be a nightmare. Dont think theres much of a appetite for a major deployment to the ME again.

Actually i believe Iran would be the easiest to turn from Russia. If the EU and USA could make a sincere attempt in normalizing relationships, that and a sincere talk between Iran, Israel and Palestine. Iran is just keeping the Russians at arms length because they do not have anyone else to turn too. Right now their back is against the wall. Rich on resourses but nowhere to sell. The ayatollahs will not rule forever. And Russia is really not a country you want to deal with financially in the long run, Iran knows it.

There is still a chance but, as I said, sincere talks with no bs from all sides.

 

[Helen of Annoy]

Just to clarify, yes, two russian bases in Crimea were hit today (or spontaneously combusted if you'll believe russians): Dzankoy in the north of the peninsula and Hvardiyske near Simferopol. 

[Helen of Annoy]

 

[+Nuclear Wessel]

Seeing Russia getting its back door kicked in so easily is both hilarious and pathetically sad all at once. I suspect a major escalation is in the cards for Moscow, where there is a mass mobilization of troops. Otherwise they don’t have a chance in hell of winning this war. 

[ThereWeAreThen]

57 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

 

Any confirmation on Simferopol air base attack?

[Buzz_Light_Year]

1 hour ago, Helen of Annoy said:

 

Never ceases to amaze me that modern air force's still line their planes up in a row.

That's one Wart Hog attack away from scrap metal.

Heck a single mortar team could walk mortars right down the line.

[Helen of Annoy]

41 minutes ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Any confirmation on Simferopol air base attack?

Not yet, sadly. 

But here's some beautiful landscaping work in Lysychansk to admire, while we wait. 

 

[Only_]

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Seeing Russia getting its back door kicked in so easily is both hilarious and pathetically sad all at once. I suspect a major escalation is in the cards for Moscow, where there is a mass mobilization of troops. Otherwise they don’t have a chance in hell of winning this war. 

My understanding is that mass mobilization is off the table. Russia wants to keep this limited in scope. Pouring in instead more merceneries, local rebel forces and supplemented with their own troops to grab as much land as they can. Betting instead on a long-term strategy where the U.S would lower it's guard, maybe by a change of administration in the years ahead. In the meantime, they want to keep Ukraine unstable, chaotic and a semi-functionning state by constant bombardment and some ground offensives.

Edited August 16, 2022 by Only_

[Helen of Annoy]

 

[Helen of Annoy]

Disband the whole thing already. It's useless at best and counter-productive at worst. 

 

[Duke Wellington]

5 hours ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Unconfirmed but yet another attack on a Ruzzian base in Crimea!! Bad day for mordor!

What makes me laugh is UK news has started using the words Orcs and Mordor too.

[ThereWeAreThen]

5 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

What makes me laugh is UK news has started using the words Orcs and Mordor too.

Good! Their coverage has been p*** poor of this conflict. They dont really say much about what is going on.