Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[Trelane]

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

I think there is overwhelming support for Russia in those regions.

ooooooh, swing and a miss....

[Duke Wellington]

45 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

The 2019 parliamentary election results dont support what you are saying.

The pro-Russian parties only got about 16% of the total vote in the last election and even then there vote was concentrated in Donetsk amd Lunetsk oblast but not the southern Ukraine.  Kherson oblast and Zaporizhzhia oblast voted for an outright pro-EU party of which Zelensky is a member of.

I assume the Fatherland Party is where Azov come from?

[Trelane]

Uh oh!!!! This is what it looks like when you tactically paint yourself into a corner. Not good Vladdy, not good at all.

"Russian troops boxed in by Ukrainian forces and Dnieper River, barge carrying supplies to Russian troops sinks"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-boxed-in-by-ukrainian-forces-and-dnieper-river-barge-carrying-supplies-to-russian-troops-sinks/ar-AA122k9q?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=2d0bdc760eed4a23b739925a707c9e1b

"Russian troops have become boxed in between advancing Ukrainian forces in the southern Kherson region and the Dnieper River, with access to supplies and eastern routes blocked. "

"Ukrainian forces sank a Russian barge transporting troops, equipment and weapons across the major river crossing, Ukraine’s Operational Command South said, according to Pravda Tuesday."

"Attempts to establish an alternative crossing over the River Dnieper near Nova Kakhovka and Kozatske were unsuccessful," the command said. "A barge carrying weapons, equipment and military personnel joined the occupiers’ underwater fleet." 

[Trelane]

3 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

I assume the Fatherland Party is where Azov come from?

Boy oh boy, you just keep going back to that even though several people have already thoroughly and correctly shut this nonsense down already for you. You know you're punching at air now right? You know how silly you're making yourself look with these ridiculously incorrect posts right?

 

Put the cookies down and go for a walk. The exercise and fresh air will be good for you.

[+and-then]

I'm hearing some chatter about Putin's address.  He delayed it from tonight until tomorrow but the word I'm getting -TOTALLY UNCONFIRMED - is that Putin's address will be to officially declare war and institute a draft.  IF that becomes the reality, I think this whole thing will be turned up to a new level of risk for everyone.  He's already in a huge bind with his citizens and if he goes to a draft, that will only become exponentially worse.  He would have a huge manpower pool to throw into the meat grinder and Ukraine could not defend against that for long.  Not to even mention the risk of him using more "nonconventional" armaments.  Gas, anyone?  He could use it and kills tens of thousands and deny responsibility.  Who would ever be able to make the charges stick?

[DarkHunter]

28 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

I assume the Fatherland Party is where Azov come from?

Azov comes from southern Ukraine with a large percentage of its members coming from Mariupol.

Despite what you are trying to suggest by attempting to connect the Fatherland party to Azov the Fatherland party is pro-EU and wants to transform Ukraine into a competitive nation state based on western European model of justice and welfare.

[spartan max2]

51 minutes ago, and-then said:

I'm hearing some chatter about Putin's address.  He delayed it from tonight until tomorrow but the word I'm getting -TOTALLY UNCONFIRMED - is that Putin's address will be to officially declare war and institute a draft.  IF that becomes the reality, I think this whole thing will be turned up to a new level of risk for everyone.  He's already in a huge bind with his citizens and if he goes to a draft, that will only become exponentially worse.  He would have a huge manpower pool to throw into the meat grinder and Ukraine could not defend against that for long.  Not to even mention the risk of him using more "nonconventional" armaments.  Gas, anyone?  He could use it and kills tens of thousands and deny responsibility.  Who would ever be able to make the charges stick?

I'm curious to see what happens if he does institute a draft.

I think the reason he held back on that so far is because of causing unrest at home. Drafts don't make people happy.

Would the discontent be enough to cause any real problems at home. No idea.

[AlonaLameDeer]

1 hour ago, and-then said:

I'm hearing some chatter about Putin's address.  He delayed it from tonight until tomorrow but the word I'm getting -TOTALLY UNCONFIRMED - is that Putin's address will be to officially declare war and institute a draft.  IF that becomes the reality, I think this whole thing will be turned up to a new level of risk for everyone.  He's already in a huge bind with his citizens and if he goes to a draft, that will only become exponentially worse.  He would have a huge manpower pool to throw into the meat grinder and Ukraine could not defend against that for long.  Not to even mention the risk of him using more "nonconventional" armaments.  Gas, anyone?  He could use it and kills tens of thousands and deny responsibility.  Who would ever be able to make the charges stick?

No such things as "Charges"
What you would make stick, is NATO equipment bombing the **** out of Russian troops/installations in Russia.

Also the simple answer is doing so almost 100% makes NATO troops In Ukraine a guarantee. Even if it's just to man Anti-Missile systems.

[thedutchiedutch]

On 9/19/2022 at 5:28 AM, godnodog said:

Yes, was, and the shift back has been occurring in case you haven't noticed.

Can it fully occur? Depends on multiple factors, but one cannot say it will or.it will not, up until a few months ago the shift was going in the yes direction, now with the war and China's imploding housing loan market  may fully derail it or postpone, too soon to say.

 

Time will tell.

[Occult1]

5 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

The 2019 parliamentary election results dont support what you are saying.

 

 

2012 election. Huge support in the east and south for Party of Regions , a Pro-Russian political party. Same thing in 2007.

 

From 2014:

Ukrainians in the south and east oppose pro-Western leadership

With the appointment of a new prime minister, Ukraine’s interim government on Thursday began taking tenuous steps out of chaotic instability. However, much of the country’s focus remained on bedlam in the country’s pro-Russian east and south, where supporters of ousted President Viktor Yanukovich voiced opposition and took public action to make their dissatisfaction with the country’s new pro-Western leadership known.

[...]

Ukraine's pro-Russia regions have complicated roots, but their division from the rest of the country is delineated most obviously by a linguistic separation. The western and central, Ukrainian-speaking regions of the country, whose majorities voted for Yanukovich’s rival Yulia Tymoshenko in the 2010 presidential election, are met in the eastern and southern, Russian-speaking regions with majorities that voted for Yanukovich.

The predominantly Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine are influenced by long-standing “cultural and traditional” affiliations with Russia, explained Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/2/27/in-ukraine-s-eastdivisionnotdissolution.html

 

If people in the east and south have always felt strong cultural and traditional affiliations with Russia, why wouldn't they want to join them?

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by Occult1

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

 

2012 election. Huge support in the east and south for Party of Regions , a Pro-Russian political party. Same thing in 2007.

 

From 2014:

Ukrainians in the south and east oppose pro-Western leadership

With the appointment of a new prime minister, Ukraine’s interim government on Thursday began taking tenuous steps out of chaotic instability. However, much of the country’s focus remained on bedlam in the country’s pro-Russian east and south, where supporters of ousted President Viktor Yanukovich voiced opposition and took public action to make their dissatisfaction with the country’s new pro-Western leadership known.

[...]

Ukraine's pro-Russia regions have complicated roots, but their division from the rest of the country is delineated most obviously by a linguistic separation. The western and central, Ukrainian-speaking regions of the country, whose majorities voted for Yanukovich’s rival Yulia Tymoshenko in the 2010 presidential election, are met in the eastern and southern, Russian-speaking regions with majorities that voted for Yanukovich.

The predominantly Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine are influenced by long-standing “cultural and traditional” affiliations with Russia, explained Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/2/27/in-ukraine-s-eastdivisionnotdissolution.html

 

If people in the east and south have always felt strong cultural and traditional affiliations with Russia, why wouldn't they want to join them?

 

And yet in the 2019 election the pro-Russian parties have far less support.  It's almost like annexing land and later invading Ukraine in 2014 caused Ukranian citizens to change their minds on Russia.

[Occult1]

42 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

And yet in the 2019 election the pro-Russian parties have far less support.  It's almost like annexing land and later invading Ukraine in 2014 caused Ukranian citizens to change their minds on Russia.

They voted for Zelensky to get rid of Poroshenko. It's not rocket science.

 

''In this endeavour, Zelensky is certain to benefit from the fact that he appears to favour a vision of Ukrainian national identity that is markedly more inclusive than that of his predecessor and which seems to eschew the memory and other culture wars that escalated on Poroshenko’s watch. ''

https://fpc.org.uk/far-from-a-pro-russian-dove-volodymyr-zelensky-enters-office-a-russia-hawk/

Edited September 21, 2022 by Occult1

[acidhead]

5 hours ago, and-then said:

Not to even mention the risk of him using more "nonconventional" armaments.  Gas, anyone?  He could use it and kills tens of thousands and deny responsibility.  Who would ever be able to make the charges stick?

Just curious.... 

Isn't this the same rhetoric we were endlessly bombarded with regarding Saddam and Assad?

[+Nuclear Wessel]

Putin announcing "partial" mobilization.

[+Nuclear Wessel]

Russian army reserves will be called up.

This could get bad, as they have up to 2 million reserve personnel.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Nuclear Wessel

[DarkHunter]

17 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Russian army reserves will be called up.

This could get bad, as they have up to 2 million reserve personnel.

Wont matter much how many personnel they got in reserve.  Logistics have been the weak link of the Russian military and the Russian military still hasnt solved their logistics problems.

Russia cant even truly supply the soldiers they have in Ukraine currently, adding hundreds of thousands to a million soldiers will just make the logistics issues insanely more difficult.

[DarkHunter]

This whole address was a bit of a let down, all of this delay for Putin to play the victim and say there will be a partial mobilization.  

I think Putin is starting to get desperate.

[acidhead]

18 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

This whole address was a bit of a let down, all of this delay for Putin to play the victim and say there will be a partial mobilization.  

I think Putin is starting to get desperate.

"a bit of a let down"

Just curious... 

What were you hoping he'd say? 

[+Nuclear Wessel]

Turns out that only 300k are being mobilized, as of now.

[DarkHunter]

20 minutes ago, acidhead said:

"a bit of a let down"

Just curious... 

What were you hoping he'd say? 

Wasnt hoping for anything in particular but the whole situation is suspicious and shows Putin isnt the strong leader he once was. 

Talks of full mobilization shortly before Putin is originally to address the Russian people just to have the chairman of the state duma defense committee to say outright that there will be no full mobilization then the address getting delayed for hours till its finally canceled and moved to the next morning.  When Putin finally does address the Russian people all he talks about is essentially how the Russian state is the victim and that there will be a partial mobilization of which there are no details of who or how many people will actually be mobilized beyond a vague people with prior military experience. 

The vagueness of what a partial mobilization means will definitely hurt the Russian stock market, stock markets dont really like uncertainty especially when it comes to security and productivity which any type of mobilization effects.

Putin is seemingly loosing control of the Russian government and potentially the Russian military.  To top it off he gives what was really a rather weak address to the Russian people. 

It was just a let down overall, Putin has essentially been shown to be a largely broken and beaten man desperate to survive, which he probably wont. 

Once Kherson is liberated and the Russian troops west of the Dnieper river have either been killed or have surrendered I doubt Putin will survive much longer.

Edited September 21, 2022 by DarkHunter

[bmk1245]

We'll see how those who don't wanna fight will perform on the frontlines. One thing is to "fight" sitting in front of TV, actual battlefield is quite different thingy.

Having in mind that there were plenty of 500s amongst volunteers... 

Edit to add: no wonder 'How to Leave Russia' trends on Google.

Edited September 21, 2022 by bmk1245

[Essan]

Putin has basically admitted that he's ****ed up, and the Russian people must now pay for his mistake with their lives.  And that he has no existing "reserves" to throw into his invasion.

[Duke Wellington]

Seems Putin is warming up the nukes.

But for now, it`s a partial mobilisation. Once NATO figure out how to block his surge it will go further downhill.

[Black Red Devil]

Putin has lost the plot.  Someone in Russia needs to take him out before it's too late.  In his address to Russia he is accusing the west of threatening with nukes and then almost in the same sentence claims he will use all means to defend Russia (intending nukes as well) if Russian sovereignity is threatened and invaded........after having humself ordered the invasion of another country?!

 

[godnodog]

29 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

Putin has lost the plot.  Someone in Russia needs to take him out before it's too late.  In his address to Russia he is accusing the west of threatening with nukes and then almost in the same sentence claims he will use all means to defend Russia (intending nukes as well) if Russian sovereignity is threatened and invaded........after having humself ordered the invasion of another country?!

 

Who knows what more has been fed to russian people, maybe they are constantly being told they are winning in Ukr and Ukr is in the edge of collapse and so the west is now threatening with nukes.

Edited September 21, 2022 by godnodog