Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[jmccr8]

38 minutes ago, Alchopwn said:

For want of a coherent military doctrine, or even some sort of plan, Russia has reverted to their time-honored "Zach Brannigan" strategy of "Drown the enemy in blood".

Hi Al

Given how things are progressing it makes me think that with their infrastructure that they would be ill prepared to defend their country during an invasion in their own country. I am not suggesting that anyone should invade them but was thinking that most of their conflicts have been with small countries that didn’t have them means to defend themselves other than when they went into Afghanistan where they couldn’t gain traction. Yes they may have done better in some countries where they worked in unison with a host country in past when they were not working alone but were supplying weapons and manpower co-operatively making them look stronger.

If say an alliance of small absorbed nations worked together from within Russia then they couldn’t use nuke within their own borders and using missiles and drones would put many of their own civilians at risk from their own defences in trying to quell insurrection especially while in conflict with the Ukraine.

[Unusual Tournament]

Now it seems the F-16’s Biden promised have been scratched. Mentioning arms transfers to only scrap them is a classic case of escalation to prevent Russian escalation by escalation. Basically nudging both sides to a compromise. Ukraine will now have to deal with the fact that American support has its limits and Russia will have already worked out American patience and red lines also have limits. 
 

A ceasefire is imminent. And I stand by my original assessment, Zelensky needs to move aside and allow a faceless council to negotiate an end to hostilities and territorial separation. 

[pellinore]

5 hours ago, Alchopwn said:

Add to this, the problem that the high mobility mechanized warfare doctrine that young officers in the Russian Army are exposed to and we see a further disconnect.  The simple fact is that the Russian experience of warfare on Ukranian soil bears no resemblance to the situations that they have been trained for.  We see next to zero opportunity for they style of high mobility warfare that the Russian military believed they were going to fight. Add to this, an entrenched hierarchy of information control, cynicism, corruption and vranyo in the ranks above them, and your young officer is basically stymied from ever using what they have been taught.

Great post, Alochopwn! The 10 day special military operation is not going well nearly a year in:

 

[pellinore]

Russia may not have invaded Ukraine if Brexit had not happened, senior MEP Guy Verhofstadt has said on the third anniversary of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.

Mr Verhofstadt – the European parliament’s former Brexit coordinator – suggested Vladimir Putin calculated that the continent was not united on defence after the UK’s exit from the bloc.

“This war, this brutal invasion started with Putin and Russia,” he told LBC. “It’s really an attempt by Putin to restore the old Soviet Union. The only difference is the communist party is replaced with his own cronies.”

Russia wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine without Brexit, suggests top MEP (msn.com)

Edited January 31, 2023 by pellinore

[jmccr8]

4 hours ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Now it seems the F-16’s Biden promised have been scratched. Mentioning arms transfers to only scrap them is a classic case of escalation to prevent Russian escalation by escalation. Basically nudging both sides to a compromise. Ukraine will now have to deal with the fact that American support has its limits and Russia will have already worked out American patience and red lines also have limits. 
 

A ceasefire is imminent. And I stand by my original assessment, Zelensky needs to move aside and allow a faceless council to negotiate an end to hostilities and territorial separation. 

Hi UT

It seems that some nations are still willing to supply jets and that this may just be a hold back and not an outright refusal. From what I just read it sounds like the position is that this is a ground war where jets might not be required at this time as neither Russia or the Ukraine has air superiority.

I am not sure a ceasefire is in the making at this time as Russia is doing a build up and expected to make a major assault before February 24. There isn’t much cause to believe Russian adherence to any agreement would be honoured given past agreements so am skeptical of it being anything more than a ruse.

I would consider it as serious offer if Russia backed down and submitted to war crime trials offering key players and withdrawing, anything less would be suspect to me.

[jmccr8]

1 hour ago, pellinore said:

Russia may not have invaded Ukraine if Brexit had not happened, senior MEP Guy Verhofstadt has said on the third anniversary of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.

Mr Verhofstadt – the European parliament’s former Brexit coordinator – suggested Vladimir Putin calculated that the continent was not united on defence after the UK’s exit from the bloc.

“This war, this brutal invasion started with Putin and Russia,” he told LBC. “It’s really an attempt by Putin to restore the old Soviet Union. The only difference is the communist party is replaced with his own cronies.”

Russia wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine without Brexit, suggests top MEP (msn.com)

Hi Pellinore

Not sure I agree with Brexit being a key factor and Verhofstadt isn’t just using it as a means of keeping Brexit relevant to the British. There were likely several international  situations that Putin thought would give him the leeway if he could have made his play short and sweet. Once his play failed the international community had to respond.

[godnodog]

1 hour ago, pellinore said:

Russia may not have invaded Ukraine if Brexit had not happened, senior MEP Guy Verhofstadt has said on the third anniversary of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.

Mr Verhofstadt – the European parliament’s former Brexit coordinator – suggested Vladimir Putin calculated that the continent was not united on defence after the UK’s exit from the bloc.

“This war, this brutal invasion started with Putin and Russia,” he told LBC. “It’s really an attempt by Putin to restore the old Soviet Union. The only difference is the communist party is replaced with his own cronies.”

Russia wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine without Brexit, suggests top MEP (msn.com)

not sure why he would think that since the EU has no common defense policy (I am not aware or heard about any), and most EU members are Nato members.

[pellinore]

4 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Pellinore

Not sure I agree with Brexit being a key factor and Verhofstadt isn’t just using it as a means of keeping Brexit relevant to the British. There were likely several international  situations that Putin thought would give him the leeway if he could have made his play short and sweet. Once his play failed the international community had to respond.

I'm not saying I agree with his view, but it is interesting, and he isn't alone with it. I think it is worth considering along with other factors leading to the invasion.

[pellinore]

5 minutes ago, godnodog said:

not sure why he would think that since the EU has no common defense policy (I am not aware or heard about any), and most EU members are Nato members.

There is, and we (the UK) have just re-committed to it with PESCO: 

UK–EU Defence Cooperation and PESCO’s Military Mobility Project | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Common Security and Defence Policy - Wikipedia

Edited January 31, 2023 by pellinore

[jmccr8]

Just now, pellinore said:

I'm not saying I agree with his view, but it is interesting, and he isn't alone with it. I think it is worth considering along with other factors leading to the invasion.

Hi Pellinore

My feeling is that UN forces shutting down in Afghanistan played a bigger part than Brexit to be honest. Brexit didn’t affect British military and had been going of for years and nothing much has changed in the British voting public as it is still being argued as it has been for the last decade.

[godnodog]

13 minutes ago, pellinore said:

There is, and we (the UK) have just re-committed to it with PESCO: 

UK–EU Defence Cooperation and PESCO’s Military Mobility Project | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Common Security and Defence Policy - Wikipedia

Thanks for correcting and providing the information link.

[jmccr8]

35 minutes ago, pellinore said:

There is, and we (the UK) have just re-committed to it with PESCO: 

UK–EU Defence Cooperation and PESCO’s Military Mobility Project | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Common Security and Defence Policy - Wikipedia

Hi Pellinore

Thanks for the link and will add that Britain is still a NATO and UN member so didn’t think Brexit changed any of their commitment or responsibilities to either organization which they also rely on for their own protection.

[Grey Area]

6 hours ago, Unusual Tournament said:

A ceasefire is imminent. And I stand by my original assessment, Zelensky needs to move aside and allow a faceless council to negotiate an end to hostilities and territorial separation. 

Out of interest here, why is it incumbent on Ukraine to concede what is a well respected and very effective leader?

Why shouldn’t Putin step down in favour of a ‘faceless council’ to negotiate?  Quite clearly Zelensky would be more amenable than Putin in any ceasefire agreements.

Bit of a rhetorical question I think, as we all know there will be no negotiations or concessions from Putin, and we also know that as long as Zelensky is in power and Ukraine is performing well on the battlefield, he will not sign a ceasefire without considerable concessions from Russia.

[pellinore]

25 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Pellinore

Thanks for the link and will add that Britain is still a NATO and UN member so didn’t think Brexit changed any of their commitment or responsibilities to either organization which they also rely on for their own protection.

I imagine Verhofstadt is biased as he was chief EU Brexit negotiator. But it is a  reasonable inference. Because one thing is clear: Brexit is massively weakening Britain and undermining Western unity. It has brought some of the the most corrupt (Johnson) and deranged (Truss) leaders to power. Brexit, like his bringing to power of Trump, has certainly increased Putin's belief that the West is decaying and he can get away with anything. Both Brexit and Trump are among his biggest successes in his war on democracy.

[Unusual Tournament]

3 hours ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi UT

It seems that some nations are still willing to supply jets and that this may just be a hold back and not an outright refusal. From what I just read it sounds like the position is that this is a ground war where jets might not be required at this time as neither Russia or the Ukraine has air superiority.

I am not sure a ceasefire is in the making at this time as Russia is doing a build up and expected to make a major assault before February 24. There isn’t much cause to believe Russian adherence to any agreement would be honoured given past agreements so am skeptical of it being anything more than a ruse.

I would consider it as serious offer if Russia backed down and submitted to war crime trials offering key players and withdrawing, anything less would be suspect to me.

Now’s a perfect time for the Americans to create the conditions for a cease fire. Believe me the last thing Europe and the old Soviet republics want is a strong mobilisation of conventional Russian forces battle hardened and ready to go. 
 

Russia is a unique country that doesn’t fit into the paradigm of a normal country. Only America and China have the same distinction. 

[Helen of Annoy]

I see russian propaganda sticks to projecting russian woes and faults on Ukraine. 

It's russia that can't keep any of the territories they illegally occupied and will have to leave them. Not Ukraine that will have to cede an inch. By russian logic, russia leaving illegally occupied Ukrainian land is "ceding" land to Ukraine.

It's poopler that is already dead or dying and russia will have to replace him with "faceless committee" because the oligarchs can't agree who gets to be the tsar. Not to mention that none of them is ready to be the face of russian defeat. It would be best for russia to give poopler's face to the defeat and capitulation and then move on to plot the revenge under faceless committee. Brainless too. 

 

russian propaganda that poses as fake Ukrainian- and Western-friendly is particularly insidious and therefore particularly dangerous. 

But it's very easy to spot it - it still insists poopleristan is a superpower. 

[Helen of Annoy]

Regarding battle-hardened, lol, rusnya, there're more battered. And also dead. 

Bakhmut is now eating the remaining rusky specials alive, since "wagner" is being neutralized due to internal russian problems. May they escalate  and they certainly will. 

 

[Unusual Tournament]

1 hour ago, Grey Area said:

Out of interest here, why is it incumbent on Ukraine to concede what is a well respected and very effective leader?

Why shouldn’t Putin step down in favour of a ‘faceless council’ to negotiate?  Quite clearly Zelensky would be more amenable than Putin in any ceasefire agreements.

Bit of a rhetorical question I think, as we all know there will be no negotiations or concessions from Putin, and we also know that as long as Zelensky is in power and Ukraine is performing well on the battlefield, he will not sign a ceasefire without considerable concessions from Russia.

Zelensky has done all that I could. He’s a hero. There is no need to sacrifice him. His people have been gassed up by every western leader, media and even their own military. The reality will be very different come a cessation of hostilities and peace talks. Crimea and Donbas were once part of Russia handed over to Ukraine to celebrate 400 years of brotherly union. Russia is effectively taking back its engagement ring. 

[Helen of Annoy]

Read fast, guys  

russians are so sensitive they can't stand any facts being mentioned in their presence.

It's how they got into this **** up to their necks     

[Helen of Annoy]

Oh, and do pay attention to the russian focus on the West "betraying" Ukraine. 

It's easy to spot too - constructive criticism (the West indeed is way too super-cautious) versus russian talking point that the West "betrayed" Ukraine. 

[DarkHunter]

In about a month the mud season should start, I suspect it might start earlier with how mild the winter has been so far, which means if Russia doesnt take Bakhmut within probably the next 2 to 3 weeks it's unlikely Russia will take Bakhmut at all.  

[Helen of Annoy]

russia is especially jealous of Zelensky, because their poopler is an incompetent evil weakling compared to living legend Zelensky. 

russians tried to assassinate Zelensky in more than a dozen attempts, russian troll army keeps trying to badmouth Zelensky, and now, desperate that it all failed, they want to sell the narrative according to which fake friends of Ukraine recommend removing Zelensky from power out of fake care for his reputation (complete with imminent russian victory, lol).   

[jmccr8]

2 hours ago, pellinore said:

I imagine Verhofstadt is biased as he was chief EU Brexit negotiator. But it is a  reasonable inference. Because one thing is clear: Brexit is massively weakening Britain and undermining Western unity. It has brought some of the the most corrupt (Johnson) and deranged (Truss) leaders to power. Brexit, like his bringing to power of Trump, has certainly increased Putin's belief that the West is decaying and he can get away with anything. Both Brexit and Trump are among his biggest successes in his war on democracy.

Hi Pellinore

Maybe there are some economic restructuring that is affecting Britain more so than the west but as far as weakening solidarity on defence it doesn’t appear to be the case.

[Helen of Annoy]

In defence of russians whose propaganda attempts are so weak and bizarre, russians normally believe in pretty obvious lies. So they don't quite get why the rest of the world wouldn't be so gullible. 

 

[DarkHunter]

12 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Zelensky has done all that I could. He’s a hero. There is no need to sacrifice him. His people have been gassed up by every western leader, media and even their own military. The reality will be very different come a cessation of hostilities and peace talks. Crimea and Donbas were once part of Russia handed over to Ukraine to celebrate 400 years of brotherly union. Russia is effectively taking back its engagement ring. 

Fascinating how quickly you go to that Ukraine needs to surrender to Russia.  

Ukraine has liberated large parts of the country, the military of Ukraine continues to get stronger with further western training and weapon deliveries mean while the Russian military continues to throw away men and equipment on targets of limited strategic value and is forced to use a growing number of poorly trained and equipped conscripts and you want Ukraine to essentially surrender to Russia.  It is just utterly insane.

This isnt the mid 1800s to mid 1900s where numbers alone can win a war and that is about all Russia has.