Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

1 hour ago, susieice said:

Deportation?

Something a little more Final, if you get my drift.

[Occult1]

1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

Unless there has been a radical change the Russian forces are still only on the outskirts of Mariupol, occasionally there is a deeper push but the Russians get pushed back out before long.  The Ukranian defenders were offered a way out if they laid down their arms but they have refused the offer.

Russian troops are currently inside the city.  Latest reports are that they are fighting 'at the heart' of Mariupol.

There's no evidence that they have yet been pushed back.

Edited March 19, 2022 by Occult1

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

https://apple.news/ArtMisQoXQuevca_xBxtg9A

So, according to this, Russian squaddies (I’ll not call them conscripts) are shooting themselves to get out of combat.
well, that’s an all conquering, unstoppable army right there. 

[Only_]

6 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

https://apple.news/ArtMisQoXQuevca_xBxtg9A

So, according to this, Russian squaddies (I’ll not call them conscripts) are shooting themselves to get out of combat.
well, that’s an all conquering, unstoppable army right there. 

Using conscripts is a terrible idea. These kids just don't want to be there. There are rumors that if they try to desert, they risk getting shot by Putin's death squad.  No wonder the Russian army is failing and looks so incompetent.

[spartan max2]

56 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

And? A half decent resistance force can turn a modern city into a kill box for tanks. 
let’s start with mines under every sewer cover, follow that with triggered explosives in rhe taller building designed to literally drop the building on a convoy.

A half decent resistance force that is also being armed with antitank weapons from a dozen nations 

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

33 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

A half decent resistance force that is also being armed with antitank weapons from a dozen nations 

Ohh but Comrade Occult insists that all those weapons are being destroyed.

[DarkHunter]

2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Russian troops are currently inside the city.  Latest reports are that they are fighting 'at the heart' of Mariupol.

There's no evidence that they have yet been pushed back.

I have yet to hear they are in the heart of the city, given your sources claimed Kyiv would fall in 48 hours weeks ago so I dont quite trust your sources.

[+and-then]

4 hours ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Last place I’d want my tanks is in a reasonably modern city that the locals have had time to booby trap. It’ll be a nightmare of buried and destroyed tanks.

Exactly.  With the flow of those anti-armor weapons, Russian troops will be less likely to die by walking with the armor rather than inside it.  Maybe that's just my claustrophobia talking, though.  I can't imagine a worse combat death than being immolated in a steel box  

[Occult1]

20 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

I have yet to hear they are in the heart of the city, given your sources claimed Kyiv would fall in 48 hours weeks ago so I dont quite trust your sources.

Ukrainian Forces Try to Hold Mariupol as Combat Reaches City Streets

During weekslong bombardment and attack, Ukrainians said they had kept Russian forces at bay on Mariupol’s outskirts, but that has changed. “The fighting is already in the city itself,” an official from the mayor’s office said via text message. “But Mariupol remains a Ukrainian city.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-forces-try-to-hold-mariupol-as-combat-reaches-city-streets-11647690670

 

As Russia pushes into the heart of Mariupol, Ukraine's Zelenskyy urges direct talks with Putin

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-03-19/zelenskyy-urges-direct-talks-putin-war-ukraine-continues-rage-5402037.html

 

The report comes directly from the Mayor's office. Russian troops have gained a foothold in the city and battles have reached the center of Mariupol.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Occult1

[+and-then]

1 hour ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Ohh but Comrade Occult insists that all those weapons are being destroyed.

I think that Russian interdiction efforts at NATO borders may present the greatest danger for unintended escalation.  If they hit weapons convoys on the wrong side of a border, this thing could take off like a 4th of July fireworks display.

[+and-then]

2 hours ago, Only_ said:

Using conscripts is a terrible idea. These kids just don't want to be there. There are rumors that if they try to desert, they risk getting shot by Putin's death squad.  No wonder the Russian army is failing and looks so incompetent.

I recently read a piece explaining that the term for a conscript is one year, BUT they can only be sent into combat situations by signing a voluntary contract, asking to go.  If the stories we're hearing about these teens is true, they were being told they were going for an exercise right up until they were being shot at.  Add in the natural brotherhood nurtured in ethnic bonds and it would be one HELL of a situation for an 18-19-year-old.

[DarkHunter]

8 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Ukrainian Forces Try to Hold Mariupol as Combat Reaches City Streets

During weekslong bombardment and attack, Ukrainians said they had kept Russian forces at bay on Mariupol’s outskirts, but that has changed. “The fighting is already in the city itself,” an official from the mayor’s office said via text message. “But Mariupol remains a Ukrainian city.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-forces-try-to-hold-mariupol-as-combat-reaches-city-streets-11647690670

 

As Russia pushes into the heart of Mariupol, Ukraine's Zelenskyy urges direct talks with Putin

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-03-19/zelenskyy-urges-direct-talks-putin-war-ukraine-continues-rage-5402037.html

 

The report comes directly from the Mayor's office. Russian troops have gained a foothold in the city and battles have reached the center of Mariupol.

Pushing towards the heart is different from being in the heart or controlling most of the city, but you do seem to like to misquote and stretch articles to try and justify your Russian misinformation and propaganda.

[Occult1]

1 hour ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Ohh but Comrade Occult insists that all those weapons are being destroyed.

There are a lot of footage of Russian strikes destroying weapons cache and ammunition warehouses. I don't think a lot of the weapons we're sending Ukraine end up on the battlefield.

Why do you think Ukrainian forces want a no-fly zone and NATO boots on the ground? Weapons, especially when destroyed, are simply not very useful.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Occult1

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

17 minutes ago, and then said:

I think that Russian interdiction efforts at NATO borders may present the greatest danger for unintended escalation.  If they hit weapons convoys on the wrong side of a border, this thing could take off like a 4th of July fireworks display.

It’d be nice to repay the Russians for their similar actions through Laos during the Vietnam War though….

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

10 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

There are a lot of footage of Russian strikes destroying weapons cache and ammunition warehouses. I don't think a lot of the weapons we're sending Ukraine end up on the battlefield.

Why do you think Ukrainian forces want a no-fly zone and NATO boots on the ground? Weapons, especially when destroyed, are simply not very useful.

I know a lot of the weapon’s YOUR SIDE is sending to the Ukraine aren’t getting used, the Ukrainians keep blowing up your tanks and/or stealing them. 

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

23 minutes ago, and then said:

Exactly.  With the flow of those anti-armor weapons, Russian troops will be less likely to die by walking with the armor rather than inside it.  Maybe that's just my claustrophobia talking, though.  I can't imagine a worse combat death than being immolated in a steel box  

Something my old man said, a long time ago, always be a dog face, never a driver. You die easier that way.

[CrimsonKing]

33 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Pushing towards the heart is different from being in the heart or controlling most of the city, but you do seem to like to misquote and stretch articles to try and justify your Russian misinformation and propaganda.

Unfortunately from everything I've been seeing he's may be right on this one,their still fighting like hell but Mariupol might be taken soon...

[Buzz_Light_Year]

18 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

I know a lot of the weapon’s YOUR SIDE is sending to the Ukraine aren’t getting used, the Ukrainians keep blowing up your tanks and/or stealing them. 

Yeah that is being handled by the UFB. Ukrainian Farmers Battalion.

New toy for Christmas.

 

[CrimsonKing]

36 minutes ago, and then said:

I recently read a piece explaining that the term for a conscript is one year, BUT they can only be sent into combat situations by signing a voluntary contract, asking to go.  If the stories we're hearing about these teens is true, they were being told they were going for an exercise right up until they were being shot at.  Add in the natural brotherhood nurtured in ethnic bonds and it would be one HELL of a situation for an 18-19-year-old.

That's just ****ed up beyond words man...

[+susieice]

4 hours ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Something a little more Final, if you get my drift.

I do.

At the very least though, it's deportations starting.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-19-22/h_2e9c8826cd040f8dd4d8a21c5b3b6283

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

29 minutes ago, susieice said:

I do.

At the very least though, it's deportations starting.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-19-22/h_2e9c8826cd040f8dd4d8a21c5b3b6283

We know where that ends, where mass deportations ALWAYS end. 
Can the Putin Boys here say they approve? For all their “they’re there to fight Nazis” or “to protect pro-Russian Ukrainians” sentiment, can they really support this? Ohh I know our good comrade will be here to tell us it’s for their own good, that many of them WANT to go to Russia. But… we’ve heard that before. And it ends at the lonely end of a train line, with Showers. 

[spartan max2]

1 hour ago, CrimsonKing said:

Unfortunately from everything I've been seeing he's may be right on this one,their still fighting like hell but Mariupol might be taken soon...

At this point I've given up trying to predict how any of it will go 

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, CrimsonKing said:

Unfortunately from everything I've been seeing he's may be right on this one,their still fighting like hell but Mariupol might be taken soon...

Mariupol may or may not fall.  The reality is Russia went in with approximately 200,000 troops for a higher estimate, the two separatist regions combined added 50,000 troops, and Russia has brought in 10,000 Chechens.  At best Russia has between 260,000 to 300,000 troops for the invasion.  Due to various reasons they are either unwilling or unable to bring in serious reinforcements and only recently has moved some very outdated military equipment from the far east towards the west. 

The number of fronts can be debated depending on how you define them, for example the entire north could be counted as one front or divided into two with one east and one west of the Dnieper river.  In general it seems there are about 5 fronts of which Mariupol is a part of one front.  There are three Ukranian brigades plus elements of the Avoz battalion defending Mariupol.  A brigade has between 3,000 and 5,000 soldiers so at minimum 9,000+ to 15,000+ Ukranian soldiers are defending Ukraine.  Assuming a brigade worth of Azov that is between 12,000 to 20,000 defenders.  As a rule of thumb for an offensive to be successful against a dug in urban opponent you generally want them outnumbered 4 to 1 or 5 to 1.  Theoretically Russia would need to dedicate between about 50,000 to 100,000 troops to take Mariupol.  That is simply far too large a chunk for Russia to dedicate to one front let alone one battle on one front.

It's possible they will hold out and the Russians will be forced to try and starve them out which gives them weeks to hold out for relief or for the invasion to end.  The fact Russia is pushing an assault suggest they are desperate and the invasion is extremely time sensitive.

Edited March 20, 2022 by DarkHunter

[Occult1]

1 hour ago, CrimsonKing said:

Unfortunately from everything I've been seeing he's may be right on this one,their still fighting like hell but Mariupol might be taken soon...

There's no doubt about it.

Here's why:

1. Russian troops have air power which is a significant advantage.

2. Mariupol is completely surrounded.

3. The Ukrainian military cannot send reinforcement to Mariupol.

 

It's a matter of hours, days maybe.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Occult1

[spartan max2]

20 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

It's possible they will hold out and the Russians will be forced to try and starve them out which gives them weeks to hold out for relief or for the invasion to end.  The fact Russia is pushing an assault suggest they are desperate and the invasion is extremely time sensitive.

Time sensitive makes sense.

I think generally the longer this goes the better for Ukraine morale, the worse for Russian moral, and the higher likelihood of additional help from other nations