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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6
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20 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

It's possible they will hold out and the Russians will be forced to try and starve them out which gives them weeks to hold out for relief or for the invasion to end.  The fact Russia is pushing an assault suggest they are desperate and the invasion is extremely time sensitive.

Time sensitive makes sense.

I think generally the longer this goes the better for Ukraine morale, the worse for Russian moral, and the higher likelihood of additional help from other nations 

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

We know where that ends, where mass deportations ALWAYS end. 
Can the Putin Boys here say they approve? For all their “they’re there to fight Nazis” or “to protect pro-Russian Ukrainians” sentiment, can they really support this? Ohh I know our good comrade will be here to tell us it’s for their own good, that many of them WANT to go to Russia. But… we’ve heard that before. And it ends at the lonely end of a train line, with Showers. 

These claims are most likely untrue or deeply biased.

Who's to say that these people didn't asked to be evacuated to Russia? Seems to me much safer to be in Russia in a humanitarian camp with shelter, water, food and medicines than in a war zone.

Edited by Occult1
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Just now, Occult1 said:

These claims are most likely untrue or deeply biased.

Who's to say that these people didn't asked to be evacuated to Russia? Seems to me much safer to be in Russia in a humanitarian camp with shelter, water, food and medicines than in a war zone.

And there we are. 

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Just now, Occult1 said:

These claims are most likely untrue or deeply biased.

Who's to say that these people didn't asked to be evacuated to Russia? Seems to me much safer to be in Russia in a humanitarian camp with shelter, water, food and medicines than in a war zone.

Who’s to say they didn’t want to go with the invading army that blows up children? 
Truely anything could be possible.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Who’s to say they didn’t want to go with the invading army that blows up children? 
Truely anything could be possible.

Russia has offered escape routes to Russia and its close ally Belarus since the beginning of this conflict.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-russia-to-open-ukraine-humanitarian-routes-but-fears-persist

It's not a far stretch of the imagination to actually consider that people would seize that offer.

In Russia, you won't get bombarded. Ordinary people care more about their lives than politics. The city of Mariupol is also predominantly Russian speaking.

 

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3 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

In Russia, you won't get bombarded. Ordinary people care more about their lives than politics. The city of Mariupol is also predominantly Russian speaking.

 

You’d not be being bombed in Mariupol either if Russia hadn’t invaded in the first place.

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21 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

These claims are most likely untrue or deeply biased.

Who's to say that these people didn't asked to be evacuated to Russia? Seems to me much safer to be in Russia in a humanitarian camp with shelter, water, food and medicines than in a war zone.

This all sounds familar too.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

 

You’d not be being bombed in Mariupol either if Russia hadn’t invaded in the first place.

Well, not quite true.

The city of Mariupol has been contested ever since 2014 between Pro-Russian separatists of the Donetsk's People Republics and Ukrainian forces.

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2 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Well, not quite true.

The city of Mariupol has been contested ever since 2014 between Pro-Russian separatists of the Donetsk's People Republics and Ukrainian forces.

Umm… yes? Yes, very quite true. If the Russians never invaded, no one would have been bombed. 

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11 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Russia has offered escape routes to Russia and its close ally Belarus since the beginning of this conflict.

Yes, they did.  But THEN they began shelling those trying to USE the escape routes.  You are free to support as you choose but the world can see there is no justification for the medieval barbarism being visited on these civilians.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, and then said:

Yes, they did.  But THEN they began shelling those trying to USE the escape routes.  You are free to support as you choose but the world can see there is no justification for the medieval barbarism being visited on these civilians.

It's not a matter of ''supporting'' anyone.

It's about getting both sides of the story and draw logical conclusions from that.

Edited by Occult1
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1 hour ago, spartan max2 said:

Time sensitive makes sense.

I think generally the longer this goes the better for Ukraine morale, the worse for Russian moral, and the higher likelihood of additional help from other nations 

That definitely plays a role but it goes beyond moral.  Currently Russia has had anywhere from 7,000 at very conservative estimate killed to about 14,000+ killed according to Ukraine with other estimates even higher along with unknown amount wounded in less than a month of fighting.  In Afghanistan Russia had approximately 14,000 killed and approximately 53,000 wounded in approximately 9 years of conflict.  Russia is either on track or has already surpassed those figures and the longer this war goes on the more troops and equipment Russia will hemorrhage so there is a very real physical cost along with a moral cost the longer the war goes on.

For the war to end Putin needs something he can use at minimum to declare victory to the Russian people.  I have a feeling Putin is desperate to take Mariupol so he can claim Russia has degraded Ukranian military ability, even though they have degraded their own far more, and can claim a land corridor to Crimea along with guaranteeing the much needed water for Crimea.  He is probably counting on America and Europe to pressure Ukraine into accepting an offered peace deal from Russia but that is a very risky bet as their is no guarantee Ukraine or America and Europe would accept that.  Gets into the whole proverb of "wars begin when one wills, but they rarely end when one wants".  Ukraine will want all of its territory and America and Europe might see this as the best way to force regime change on Russia.

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3 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Mariupol may or may not fall.  The reality is Russia went in with approximately 200,000 troops for a higher estimate, the two separatist regions combined added 50,000 troops, and Russia has brought in 10,000 Chechens.  At best Russia has between 260,000 to 300,000 troops for the invasion.  Due to various reasons they are either unwilling or unable to bring in serious reinforcements and only recently has moved some very outdated military equipment from the far east towards the west. 

The number of fronts can be debated depending on how you define them, for example the entire north could be counted as one front or divided into two with one east and one west of the Dnieper river.  In general it seems there are about 5 fronts of which Mariupol is a part of one front.  There are three Ukranian brigades plus elements of the Avoz battalion defending Mariupol.  A brigade has between 3,000 and 5,000 soldiers so at minimum 9,000+ to 15,000+ Ukranian soldiers are defending Ukraine.  Assuming a brigade worth of Azov that is between 12,000 to 20,000 defenders.  As a rule of thumb for an offensive to be successful against a dug in urban opponent you generally want them outnumbered 4 to 1 or 5 to 1.  Theoretically Russia would need to dedicate between about 50,000 to 100,000 troops to take Mariupol.  That is simply far too large a chunk for Russia to dedicate to one front let alone one battle on one front.

It's possible they will hold out and the Russians will be forced to try and starve them out which gives them weeks to hold out for relief or for the invasion to end.  The fact Russia is pushing an assault suggest they are desperate and the invasion is extremely time sensitive.

Your numbers are good man,and I'm not in disagreement...hell I honestly hope you're right!...That said,I just honestly don't feel the calculations are 100% because this isn't a war being fought by rules of engagement agreements.

I looked back and realize you might have thought I was making jest at one of my previous comments about the "switchblade" drones also...I actually wasn't,you may have never played the GTA video games in years gone by,but if you have/had you'd get my drift so to speak ;)

My point overall being,Russia has devastated large portions of Mariupol already,if the shelling continues there won't be much of anything left worth defending anyway...

I'm not on the ground there and neither are you,so it's really just opinions either way.

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2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

It's not a matter of ''supporting'' anyone.

It's about getting both sides of the story and draw logical conclusions from that.

And yet you’re doing your best Lord Haw-Haw impression here. 

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5 hours ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

It’d be nice to repay the Russians for their similar actions through Laos during the Vietnam War though….

Nope. The US and anyone who followed them into that hell-hole of a war got what they deserved.

The US carpet bombed and killed hundreds of thousands of civilians.

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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

That definitely plays a role but it goes beyond moral.  Currently Russia has had anywhere from 7,000 at very conservative estimate killed to about 14,000+ killed according to Ukraine with other estimates even higher along with unknown amount wounded in less than a month of fighting.  In Afghanistan Russia had approximately 14,000 killed and approximately 53,000 wounded in approximately 9 years of conflict.  Russia is either on track or has already surpassed those figures and the longer this war goes on the more troops and equipment Russia will hemorrhage so there is a very real physical cost along with a moral cost the longer the war goes on.

For the war to end Putin needs something he can use at minimum to declare victory to the Russian people.  I have a feeling Putin is desperate to take Mariupol so he can claim Russia has degraded Ukranian military ability, even though they have degraded their own far more, and can claim a land corridor to Crimea along with guaranteeing the much needed water for Crimea.  He is probably counting on America and Europe to pressure Ukraine into accepting an offered peace deal from Russia but that is a very risky bet as their is no guarantee Ukraine or America and Europe would accept that.  Gets into the whole proverb of "wars begin when one wills, but they rarely end when one wants".  Ukraine will want all of its territory and America and Europe might see this as the best way to force regime change on Russia.

They are losing, every week, a larger percentage of their forces than any of the allied did during any week of WW2 with the exception of D-Day.

Or so I read.

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3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

These claims are most likely untrue or deeply biased.

Who's to say that these people didn't asked to be evacuated to Russia? Seems to me much safer to be in Russia in a humanitarian camp with shelter, water, food and medicines than in a war zone.

Honestly man,stick at least to commenting on your links to things like Wall Street Journal...

Your above quote makes people ask serious questions about your "motives" so to speak and I get it...

May I ask,have you ever fought/had to fight for your own well being or career in or...anything really?

I don't mean being a sassy smart mouth or under handed behind closed doors mouthing off to superior's...I'm talking face to face,busted mouths,noses,broken limbs type of ***t?

Reason I ask is even if you have,these people are having to endure that ***t to the nth degree...

These are real life people...

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11 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Nope. The US and anyone who followed them into that hell-hole of a war got what they deserved.

The US carpet bombed and killed hundreds of thousands of civilians.

No doubt,but that was a government war so to speak...

A s*** load of drafted 18,19,20 year olds wound up there fighting for their lives the same as the Vietnamese...

I have several family members who served in that war a few never made it back and some never made it back the same as they were before according to my elders...

Let's not steer this b**** into a ditch :lol:

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3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

It's not a matter of ''supporting'' anyone.

It's about getting both sides of the story and draw logical conclusions from that.

Let me quote Vitaly Klitschko: Bulls**t !

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4 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Russia has offered escape routes to Russia and its close ally Belarus since the beginning of this conflict.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-russia-to-open-ukraine-humanitarian-routes-but-fears-persist

It's not a far stretch of the imagination to actually consider that people would seize that offer.

They wouldn't need an escape route if the Russians weren't invading their country, would they ?

4 hours ago, Occult1 said:

In Russia, you won't get bombarded. Ordinary people care more about their lives than politics. The city of Mariupol is also predominantly Russian speaking.

 

So Russia is bombing Russians, yet you still defend them. Why is that ? 

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8 hours ago, and then said:

I think that Russian interdiction efforts at NATO borders may present the greatest danger for unintended escalation.  If they hit weapons convoys on the wrong side of a border, this thing could take off like a 4th of July fireworks display.

Even if they do it a couple of time, most likely NATO will not respond as it will be considered an "accident" but more than that it is not sustainable to ignore it.

The simple fact russia is using hipersonic missiles just goes to show the war is going really bad in their side, whether or not they're making progress on the ground.

There are unconfirmed reports that Bieloruss is getting ready to enter the conflic.

And increasing unconfirmed rumours of russians planting chemical bombs to create false flag operations to accuse Ukraine of chemical warfare and crimes.

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An advisor to Zelensky has said there is currently no military solution to what is happening in Mariupol and the city is mostly flattened...

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11 hours ago, CrimsonKing said:

Your numbers are good man,and I'm not in disagreement...hell I honestly hope you're right!...That said,I just honestly don't feel the calculations are 100% because this isn't a war being fought by rules of engagement agreements.

I looked back and realize you might have thought I was making jest at one of my previous comments about the "switchblade" drones also...I actually wasn't,you may have never played the GTA video games in years gone by,but if you have/had you'd get my drift so to speak ;)

My point overall being,Russia has devastated large portions of Mariupol already,if the shelling continues there won't be much of anything left worth defending anyway...

I'm not on the ground there and neither are you,so it's really just opinions either way.

I just been busy this weekend, flew down to Atlanta for a Spartan race with some friends so I been a bit preoccupied with the race and catching up/partying with my friends.  Just havent had much time to be on here.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Noteverythingisaconspiracy said:

So Russia is bombing Russians, yet you still defend them. Why is that ? 

Russia is fighting extremists in Mariupol. The Azov Battalion are a Neo-Nazi group that don't care much about human rights.

There are reports that they have used civilians as human shields and blew up the Mariupol theater building. These are the ''good guys'' you are supporting.

It's all about which side of the story you choose to believe to fit your narrative. The truth is, we have no real idea of what's happening on the ground.

The Azov Battalion | The neo-Nazis of Ukraine 

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/the-azov-battalion-the-neo-nazis-of-ukraine/article65239935.ece

 

 

Edited by Occult1
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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

There are reports that they have used civilians as human shields and blew up the Mariupol theater building. These are the ''good guys'' you are supporting.

Those reports are coming only from Russia, it's pretty obvious and easy to tell that Russia bombed the theater building.  The Russian government even initially bragged about bombing it till they learned there were hundreds of children taking shelter in it.

Also want to add the woman in that video has made contradictory statements along with statements that are just not factually true.

Edited by DarkHunter
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