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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6
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32 minutes ago, and then said:

THIS^, frankly, scares me.  If we see horrific images of civilians, gassed and dead or dying in large numbers, that could be the spark that takes this conflict to the next level.  We know from history that both Russia and DC will blame each other and if enough outrage is generated in the west, the leadership of NATO may take steps that Putin will feel compelled to answer.  This is beginning to seem like a slow-motion nightmare where you know how it ends but have no power to stop it :( 

A massive and sudden escalation might be the best way for the war to end even though it sounds counter productive.  

Putin cant just back down as the situation is now without some kind of decisive victory and it seems increasingly likely that Putin wont get that decisive victory.  A slow and steady escalation is arguably the most dangerous thing that could happen as it builds up a tolerance for even more escalation.  A rapid escalation is dangerous as a single misstep can push the world over the brink but it does have some benefits in that if handled right it would bring a near immediate stop to the conflict and give Putin a method to back down while not appearing weak along with a way to survive and continue to lead Russia.  Long term consequences would be near impossible to predict but more than likely the end results would be an expanded and more militarily capable NATO and a Russia that is more openly totalitarian and repressive that would be desperate to reestablish its former reputation.

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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

That is what makes all of this dangerous.  It's pretty clear NATO is more or less ready for a Russian strike but it's not clear if Putin knows that, what person close to him wants to tell Putin that the best of the Russian military has been devastated and that NATO is prepared to counter any Russian aggression.  Putin might make a decision to strike a NATO member under the bad information that NATO is not prepared and wont be willing to respond militarily to anything Russia does.

This is a prime example of the dangers of being surrounded by sycophants.

I would think Putin could have some access to internet and just be watching the same stuff we are , or who knows , all he gotta do is lurk on this forum and get a pretty good idea .:) , but i dont know if he is completely cut off or not , but they may have some satellites of their own capable of providing internet in case of war.

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14 minutes ago, razman said:

I would think Putin could have some access to internet and just be watching the same stuff we are , or who knows , all he gotta do is lurk on this forum and get a pretty good idea .:) , but i dont know if he is completely cut off or not , but they may have some satellites of their own capable of providing internet in case of war.

Russian media just parrots whatever the Russian state tells it to so they wont be telling an accurate assessment of the war and will just produce an echo chamber.  Outside media has largely been blocked in Russia but Putin and his inner circle can probably still access it but how likely is Putin to believe it when the people closest to him and who advice him are probably telling him it's all just propaganda while they tell him exactly what he wants to hear.

It's not so much Putin is cut off from other sources as it is he seems to of surrounded himself with his sycophants and seems to of created an echo chamber where only the best case scenario is talked about and any criticism is quickly silenced or flaw in a plan covered up.

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1 hour ago, razman said:

I would think Putin could have some access to internet and just be watching the same stuff we are , or who knows , all he gotta do is lurk on this forum and get a pretty good idea .:) , but i dont know if he is completely cut off or not , but they may have some satellites of their own capable of providing internet in case of war.

Or …. Even…. Post here. Maybe he’s Helen? What a disguise!

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Posted (edited)

Sanctions aimed at regime change in Russia, says Greek diplomat

''The globally coordinated sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine are aimed at regime change in Moscow, a top Greek diplomat told The Hill in an interview in Washington, D.C. 

Greek Alternate Foreign Minister Varvitsiotis Miltiadis praised President Biden for corralling democracies to impose coordinated sanctions, but warned that Turkey’s absence on some of the most punishing measures risks undermining the global push to punish Putin.

[...]

“The sanctions ... are dedicated in order to bring down the Putin regime by internal unrest — and this is the idea that we create,” he said, “a climate into Russia that this act of aggression is going to be costly for the economy of Russia, and to build up the unrest and the opposition to Putin.” 

https://thehill.com/policy/international/599257-sanctions-aimed-at-regime-change-in-russia-says-greek-diplomat

Looks similar to what U.S./NATO attempted to do with Iran, Syria (and succeeded in Ukraine) but on much bigger scale.

Edited by Occult1
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1 minute ago, Occult1 said:

Sanctions aimed at regime change in Russia, says Greek diplomat

''The globally coordinated sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine are aimed at regime change in Moscow, a top Greek diplomat told The Hill in an interview in Washington, D.C. 

Greek Alternate Foreign Minister Varvitsiotis Miltiadis praised President Biden for corralling democracies to impose coordinated sanctions, but warned that Turkey’s absence on some of the most punishing measures risks undermining the global push to punish Putin.

[...]

“The sanctions ... are dedicated in order to bring down the Putin regime by internal unrest — and this is the idea that we create,” he said, “a climate into Russia that this act of aggression is going to be costly for the economy of Russia, and to build up the unrest and the opposition to Putin.” 

https://thehill.com/policy/international/599257-sanctions-aimed-at-regime-change-in-russia-says-greek-diplomat

Looks similar to what U.S./NATO attempted to do with Iran, Syria and succeeded in Ukraine but on much bigger scale.

And, and here’s the bit that you wilfully seem to ignore, if Putin didn’t lead his nation into an invasion of another sovereign nation none of this would have happened. 

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4 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

And, and here’s the bit that you wilfully seem to ignore, if Putin didn’t lead his nation into an invasion of another sovereign nation none of this would have happened. 

One could equally say that if NATO didn't expand so far east, or had the U.S. seriously considered Russia's security concerns, none of this would have happened.

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2 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

One could equally say that if NATO didn't expand so far east, or had the U.S. seriously considered Russia's security concerns, none of this would have happened.

So nations that border Russia should just have their foreign policy dictated by Russia then.

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8 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

One could equally say that if NATO didn't expand so far east, or had the U.S. seriously considered Russia's security concerns, none of this would have happened.

One could say that, if NATO was expanding towards the east. 

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

One could equally say that if NATO didn't expand so far east, or had the U.S. seriously considered Russia's security concerns, none of this would have happened.

One could not equally say that. Not even close lol. 

1) Ukraine never joined NATO, the EU, or allowed troops in their nation.

2) even if they did that in no way justifies an invasion. Independently nations can, dare I say, act independently. NATO is not a threat to Russian security. Ukraine was never a threat to Russia.  The only reason Putin has an issue with NATO is because it makes it harder to invade post Soviet nations. 

If you're not a propaganda troll than you just have massive bias and blind spot for Putin. When your morals are causing mass destruction and death for very little gain than it's time to look in the mirror and question them.

 

 

 

Edited by spartan max2
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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

but it does have some benefits in that if handled right it would bring a near immediate stop to the conflict and give Putin a method to back down while not appearing weak along with a way to survive and continue to lead Russia. 

Perhaps... IF he chose to leverage his threat of nukes by demanding a summit with the U.S. and other NATO leaders.  I just don't see him backing down without an obvious "win" to sell at home.

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1 minute ago, and then said:

Perhaps... IF he chose to leverage his threat of nukes by demanding a summit with the U.S. and other NATO leaders.  I just don't see him backing down without an obvious "win" to sell at home.

He'll have to have some kind of "Win" or else he'll wind up like Benito...

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5 minutes ago, and then said:

Perhaps... IF he chose to leverage his threat of nukes by demanding a summit with the U.S. and other NATO leaders.  I just don't see him backing down without an obvious "win" to sell at home.

The win could just be standing up to NATO and keeping Russia from being invaded, also gives him an excuse for why Ukraine wasnt taken.

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Just now, DarkHunter said:

The win could just be standing up to NATO and keeping Russia from being invaded, also gives him an excuse for why Ukraine wasnt taken.

I'm not sure that will be enough at this point,he's cost a lot of people a lot of money over this little venture...

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2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

The win could just be standing up to NATO and keeping Russia from being invaded, also gives him an excuse for why Ukraine wasnt taken.

I hope you're right.  This whole situation has me a little spooked.  Putin seems to be behaving like he always has but our government is acting in odd ways.  Sending an additional 7 thousand troops to Europe, for example.  Having exercises very near the Ukraine border, for another.  One mistake that downs a NATO aircraft or kills NATO troops and we could be off to the races.  I'm not advocating for abandoning Ukraine, I just don't think that providing opportunities for mistaken conflict is necessary or beneficial.

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5 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Sanctions aimed at regime change in Russia, says Greek diplomat

''The globally coordinated sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine are aimed at regime change in Moscow, a top Greek diplomat told The Hill in an interview in Washington, D.C. 

Greek Alternate Foreign Minister Varvitsiotis Miltiadis praised President Biden for corralling democracies to impose coordinated sanctions, but warned that Turkey’s absence on some of the most punishing measures risks undermining the global push to punish Putin.

[...]

“The sanctions ... are dedicated in order to bring down the Putin regime by internal unrest — and this is the idea that we create,” he said, “a climate into Russia that this act of aggression is going to be costly for the economy of Russia, and to build up the unrest and the opposition to Putin.” 

https://thehill.com/policy/international/599257-sanctions-aimed-at-regime-change-in-russia-says-greek-diplomat

Looks similar to what U.S./NATO attempted to do with Iran, Syria (and succeeded in Ukraine) but on much bigger scale.

No ****, Sherlock.

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Starting to be reports that frostbite is starting to be a major issue for some Russian troops.  An intercepted communication from a Russian officer to his higher ups back in Russia has him complaining about how 50% of his men now have frostbite among other issues such as how medics only have bandages, how some troops have no body armor, how they have no tents to sleep in, and how they cant even evacuate dead soldiers anymore along with more problems.

This is only one intercepted communication from one Russian officer so definitely not a representative sample of all the fronts but it does suggest Russia is facing rather severe problems.

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6 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

1) Ukraine never joined NATO, the EU, or allowed troops in their nation.

"RAPID TRIDENT-2021"

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-holds-military-drills-with-us-forces-nato-allies-2021-09-20/
 

Quote

 

The U.S. military said in a statement the drill involved a brigade combat team of the Washington National Guard, deployed in Ukraine since April as part of a multi-national training force. Troops from 12 countries in total would be involved, "to enhance interoperability among allied and partner nations" and demonstrate readiness.

The exercise comes on the heels of huge war games staged by Moscow near NATO and EU borders of Russia and Belarus in recent weeks, which Russia says involved 200,000 troops. Kyiv and NATO also accuse Russia of having deployed extra troops this year near Ukraine's frontiers.

 

Still it was no reason to invade. Russia's security starts at their border and not in some other sovereign nations interior.

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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

Starting to be reports that frostbite is starting to be a major issue for some Russian troops.  An intercepted communication from a Russian officer to his higher ups back in Russia has him complaining about how 50% of his men now have frostbite among other issues such as how medics only have bandages, how some troops have no body armor, how they have no tents to sleep in, and how they cant even evacuate dead soldiers anymore along with more problems.

This is only one intercepted communication from one Russian officer so definitely not a representative sample of all the fronts but it does suggest Russia is facing rather severe problems.

I’m a bit skeptical of all of those intercepted audio calls, if I’m being honest. They just have a bit of a fake propaganda feel.

Maybe it’s the translation of this one, but it sounds a bit too comically bad.

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About the OP and WWIII, it could be that if we get that far, it may be triggered in Western Ukraine if a potential scenario plays out.

Going by rumours, always reliable in war of course, the Poles may go into Western Ukraine, not as Nato, but just as Poles, though the nuance is nonsense as they are a member of Nato. If this happened, and why Is Biden going to Warsaw, I think today or tomorrow, it could be as a "peacekeeping mission" to "keep the peace" in those regions of Western Ukraine that Poles see as historically theirs, not least Lvov. They would be a long way away from any Russian forces and they may calculate that Russian would make noise, a lot of it, but would otherwise accept what the Poles are doing, at least in private, and it would solve a major problem of what to do with Western Ukraine, the homeland of most of the nationalists and nazis. But, if such an operation did occur, then the moment one Polish boot stepped over the border anything could happen, and despite me saying that this could solve the Western Ukraine problem for the Russians, it would probably be an unacceptable move for Belarus, and of course we see all sorts of military movements back and forth in Belarus at the moment, with their military equipment having red squares painted on them, trolling, or ready for war?

To add to this we have the issue of Transcarpathia, populated by a large mix of people who often identify with neighbouring countries, such as Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and there are the Carpathian Rusyns, who are not Russians. It's very complicated, and while some of these peoples may wish to be part of Ukraine, in the current chaos I could see many wanting a solution that sees them free of Ukraine, particularly the ethnic Hungarians who have been taking up offers of Hungarian passports in large numbers since 2014 coup.

So despite all the fighting going on primarily on the left bank of the Dnieper, that's the eastern side as it is viewed as looking down from the north, the trigger for a potential WWIII may in fact come from Western Ukraine and Transcarpathia. Looking into a very murky crystal ball, I could see this scenario occuring during the collapse of the Ukrainain forces in the Donbass, and the Russians advancing to the Dniepr all along it's length from Kiev to the Sea. This looks likely to happen in the near future, and, as things can go south very quickly in war, could happen at any time, though I doupt for another week or two. I say this because it is now very very clear that Ukraine has no serious reserve capabilities at all. There has been no counter-offensive at Nikolaev, or Kiev, or from Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov. They cannot move out of those cities for fear of being decimated by the Russian airforce. They tie down some Russian forces, but are in the same position as the Brest Fortress at the start of operation Barbarrosa, or of "Festung Breslau" when the Red Army advanced through eastern Germany towards the end of the war.

Yesterday two major Ukrainian targets were taken out. These were the vital rail junction at Pavlograd and the main Ukrainian supply depot at Kramotorsk. The information on these strikes comes from the Ukrainians as much as from the Russians, with the man in charge of the rail junction stating that no trains would be coming through for the foreseable future. This was their main supply route, and it's gone. Likewise the mayor of Kramotorsk stated that traitors in the local community had passed information to the Russians, though they have being using Kramotorsk as their main supply depot for the northern and central Donbass since 2014 and it was not a secret. Their main supply depot for the southern Donbass had been at Volnovakha, and that of course has gone, along with their southern front except for Mariupol, which connot be supplied or relieved.

So at some point, the Ukrainian Donbass group of forces, which in size come to considerably more than the entirety of BAOR during the cold war, will need to either breakout, surrender, or be destoyed bit by bit. I see the cries from both sides that "Russia is bogged down and loosing", and this is based on there being no "blitzkrieg" into the steppes of central Ukraine. Yet at this time it would be pointless as you need to engage the enemy forces, not go on a joyride, and so the fighting is primarily in the Donbass against the Ukrainians who have had 8 years to make three defensive lines. They have no airforce to speak of, and now their main supply depot has been destoyed and the rail junction that supplied that depot destroyed. The writing really is on the wall here, even a junior soldier in any army with some modicum of knowledge can see this.

So when the Russians are deployed along the entire length of the Dniepr and have cut off Odessa, and, potentially Poland has marched into Western Ukraine, and who knows, even Hungary into Transcarpathia, though I would see that only in an end game in which it is obvious that Ukraine no longer exists, then we look at the possibility of WWIII. Russia v Ukraine is not WWIII, but Russia v Ukraine v Poland v Belarus looks very bad from all sorts of angles.

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19 minutes ago, Wepwawet said:

About the OP and WWIII, it could be that if we get that far, it may be triggered in Western Ukraine if a potential scenario plays out.

Going by rumours, always reliable in war of course, the Poles may go into Western Ukraine, not as Nato, but just as Poles, though the nuance is nonsense as they are a member of Nato. If this happened, and why Is Biden going to Warsaw, I think today or tomorrow, it could be as a "peacekeeping mission" to "keep the peace" in those regions of Western Ukraine that Poles see as historically theirs, not least Lvov. They would be a long way away from any Russian forces and they may calculate that Russian would make noise, a lot of it, but would otherwise accept what the Poles are doing, at least in private, and it would solve a major problem of what to do with Western Ukraine, the homeland of most of the nationalists and nazis. But, if such an operation did occur, then the moment one Polish boot stepped over the border anything could happen, and despite me saying that this could solve the Western Ukraine problem for the Russians, it would probably be an unacceptable move for Belarus, and of course we see all sorts of military movements back and forth in Belarus at the moment, with their military equipment having red squares painted on them, trolling, or ready for war?

To add to this we have the issue of Transcarpathia, populated by a large mix of people who often identify with neighbouring countries, such as Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and there are the Carpathian Rusyns, who are not Russians. It's very complicated, and while some of these peoples may wish to be part of Ukraine, in the current chaos I could see many wanting a solution that sees them free of Ukraine, particularly the ethnic Hungarians who have been taking up offers of Hungarian passports in large numbers since 2014 coup.

So despite all the fighting going on primarily on the left bank of the Dnieper, that's the eastern side as it is viewed as looking down from the north, the trigger for a potential WWIII may in fact come from Western Ukraine and Transcarpathia. Looking into a very murky crystal ball, I could see this scenario occuring during the collapse of the Ukrainain forces in the Donbass, and the Russians advancing to the Dniepr all along it's length from Kiev to the Sea. This looks likely to happen in the near future, and, as things can go south very quickly in war, could happen at any time, though I doupt for another week or two. I say this because it is now very very clear that Ukraine has no serious reserve capabilities at all. There has been no counter-offensive at Nikolaev, or Kiev, or from Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov. They cannot move out of those cities for fear of being decimated by the Russian airforce. They tie down some Russian forces, but are in the same position as the Brest Fortress at the start of operation Barbarrosa, or of "Festung Breslau" when the Red Army advanced through eastern Germany towards the end of the war.

Yesterday two major Ukrainian targets were taken out. These were the vital rail junction at Pavlograd and the main Ukrainian supply depot at Kramotorsk. The information on these strikes comes from the Ukrainians as much as from the Russians, with the man in charge of the rail junction stating that no trains would be coming through for the foreseable future. This was their main supply route, and it's gone. Likewise the mayor of Kramotorsk stated that traitors in the local community had passed information to the Russians, though they have being using Kramotorsk as their main supply depot for the northern and central Donbass since 2014 and it was not a secret. Their main supply depot for the southern Donbass had been at Volnovakha, and that of course has gone, along with their southern front except for Mariupol, which connot be supplied or relieved.

So at some point, the Ukrainian Donbass group of forces, which in size come to considerably more than the entirety of BAOR during the cold war, will need to either breakout, surrender, or be destoyed bit by bit. I see the cries from both sides that "Russia is bogged down and loosing", and this is based on there being no "blitzkrieg" into the steppes of central Ukraine. Yet at this time it would be pointless as you need to engage the enemy forces, not go on a joyride, and so the fighting is primarily in the Donbass against the Ukrainians who have had 8 years to make three defensive lines. They have no airforce to speak of, and now their main supply depot has been destoyed and the rail junction that supplied that depot destroyed. The writing really is on the wall here, even a junior soldier in any army with some modicum of knowledge can see this.

So when the Russians are deployed along the entire length of the Dniepr and have cut off Odessa, and, potentially Poland has marched into Western Ukraine, and who knows, even Hungary into Transcarpathia, though I would see that only in an end game in which it is obvious that Ukraine no longer exists, then we look at the possibility of WWIII. Russia v Ukraine is not WWIII, but Russia v Ukraine v Poland v Belarus looks very bad from all sorts of angles.

My girlfriend and I really think your take on this is interesting. Thanks for sharing.

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On 3/20/2022 at 2:21 AM, Occult1 said:

Ukrainian Forces Try to Hold Mariupol as Combat Reaches City Streets

During weekslong bombardment and attack, Ukrainians said they had kept Russian forces at bay on Mariupol’s outskirts, but that has changed. “The fighting is already in the city itself,” an official from the mayor’s office said via text message. “But Mariupol remains a Ukrainian city.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-forces-try-to-hold-mariupol-as-combat-reaches-city-streets-11647690670

 

As Russia pushes into the heart of Mariupol, Ukraine's Zelenskyy urges direct talks with Putin

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-03-19/zelenskyy-urges-direct-talks-putin-war-ukraine-continues-rage-5402037.html

 

The report comes directly from the Mayor's office. Russian troops have gained a foothold in the city and battles have reached the center of Mariupol.

So did Maripul fall or what? I havent heard anything about that anymore.....

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 Ukrainians listen to Bon Jovi while preparing for battle in viral video

https://www.indy100.com/viral/bon-jovi-ukraine-odessa-war

The clip – which was posted online by the band themselves – shows them enjoying Bon Jovi’s It’s My Life as troops continue to prepare themselves to fight back against invading Russian forces.

The video shows hundreds of people by the coast in Odessa, to the south of the country, passing bags of supplies from one to another and onto the back of a truck.

:tsu:

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58 minutes ago, Poncho_Peanatus said:

So did Maripul fall or what? I havent heard anything about that anymore.....

At this time, no.  

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11 hours ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Or …. Even…. Post here. Maybe he’s Helen? What a disguise!

maybe its you, you're just trying to divert attentions.

Nice try Puding nice try

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