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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


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16 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

My prediction is the Russia will take one of the more sympathic Eastern parks of Ukraine and then try to call it a victory and end the war.

Putin will have to find some way to save face and that's probably how.

At this point I don’t think the Ukrainians will allow it. If they win, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them retake Crimea and the other two territories.

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1 hour ago, and then said:

I saw a report of the comparison of Russian losses in Afghanistan vs Ukraine and at the current pace, they will lose more in weeks than they did in a decade of fighting in Afghanistan.  I feel bad for the conscripted teens but the "professional" soldiers deserve what they get, IMO.  There are also rumblings pointing to the increasing possibility that Russia may try a bold stroke with chemical weapons to force a surrender of cities.  IF that happens and creates a mass-casualty event, it may be the final straw that takes this war to the next level of insanity.  Putin has the attention of the world and I think he understands that they fear his actions so now may be the time for him to demand a sit-down summit with global leaders to find a way to stop this.

The fact that he hasn't, tells me he still believes he'll complete all of his goals and the world will be powerless to stop him.  Biden just sent another 7K troops to Germany to act as a reserve force to be dispatched to other European NATO members if needed.  Drip...drip... drip.  I think NATO needs to be focused on building up troop levels and training in the Baltic states and Poland.  The message to Putin has to be clear.  This far, NO further.

For a long time after WWII we were wary of Germany or Japan building up military capability.  Germany has not spent 2% on defense up until now.  We can hassle them for not paying their share, but at the same time we  did not really want them to be a military power.

Russia changed that.  Germany just committed to a $100 billion dollar defense budget.  They are now the third largest defense budget in the world.   Now they are targeted to spend almost 1.5 times as much as Russia.  Not a great move for Russia in anybody's estimation.

I think the message may become even more clear.   Ukraine may fight him to a stalemate or even push him back.  That will be hard to survive at home with all of the sanctions hitting the populace too.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

For a long time after WWII we were wary of Germany or Japan building up military capability.  Germany has not spent 2% on defense up until now.  We can hassle them for not paying their share, but at the same time we  did not really want them to be a military power.

West Germany spent between 2.5% and 5% of its gdp on defense till reunification and the end of the cold war.  Even shortly after reunification Germany spent about 2% to 2.5% on defense.  It wasnt really till the mid 90s that spending dropped to about 1.5% of gdp and around 2000 that it dropped to about 1%.

Edited by DarkHunter
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Just now, DarkHunter said:

West Germany spent between 2.5% and 5% of its gdp on defense till reunification and the end of the cold war.  Even shortly after reunification Germany spent about 2% to 2.5% on defense.  It wasnt really till the mud 90s that spending dropped to about 1.5% of gdp and around 2000 that it dropped to about 1%.

Thanks, I did not know it had only been for the last 20 years.

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Just now, Tatetopa said:

Thanks, I did not know it had only been for the last 20 years.

If I remember correctly during the cold war West Germany had the second or third largest army in NATO, not sure where France ranked and Franch has a weird history with NATO as they left for a couple decades.  Airforce wise West Germany was also second or third in NATO if I remember correctly.

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55 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

It’ll be a chemical weapons attack on Russians that he’ll orchestrate. This will drum up support for the war and he will be able to ‘retaliate’ in a huge way,

After all, it was a false flag that killed hundreds of Russians that enabled him to solidify his power in the 90s. Dictators really do love their false flags.

You make a good point.  It hadn't occurred to me that he'd attack his own but if hundreds of his troops were killed in such a WMD attack it would provide him cover for going totally Roman on the cities of Ukraine.  I have no doubt he'd be capable and willing.

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23 hours ago, Occult1 said:

One could equally say that if NATO didn't expand so far east, or had the U.S. seriously considered Russia's security concerns, none of this would have happened.

Vlad famously spoke of the collapse of the USSR as the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century".  HIS words, not mine.  He has slowly worked toward retaking territory from Georgia and Crimea, now the rest of Ukraine.  His conditions were ridiculous and he knew full well that NATO wasn't going to back out of eastern Europe and pledge in writing to never develop allies there.  He has decided that he can get away with this kind of theft by threatening the horrors of nuclear war.  For that reason, the world is standing at the brink.  IMO, NATO has no duty to rescue every European nation from their enemies but after Ukraine falls, Putin needs to be crystal clear on the consequences of trying his gambit again. 

If he is allowed to succeed again and again with mere threats, then he will never stop taking territory from sovereign European nations.  The reality of what he has chosen to do so far tells me he perceived sufficient weakness in NATO and especially from DC that would stand down while he undertook his Ukraine adventure.  Ultimately, weakness on the international stage is too dangerous to be allowed.

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1 hour ago, ExpandMyMind said:

It’ll be a chemical weapons attack on Russians that he’ll orchestrate. This will drum up support for the war and he will be able to ‘retaliate’ in a huge way,

After all, it was a false flag that killed hundreds of Russians that enabled him to solidify his power in the 90s. Dictators really do love their false flags.

Hi Expand

If he uses any type  of attack be it chemical or nukes he will takeout a lot of his military which he cannot afford nor can he move them out without drawing attention so would think at this time will stay with conventional warfare.

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Posted (edited)

Pentagon says Russian army 'taking defensive positions' in Ukraine

''As per the official, to the northwest, "they're [Russian forces] basically digging in and they are establishing defensive positions. So it's not that they're not advancing. They're actually not trying to advance right now." 

Meanwhile, CNN reported quoting the official that Russian forces are becoming more active in the eastern part of Ukraine in the Donbas area. 

The report quoted the official as saying that Russian forces have "applied a lot more energy" in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the two areas the Kremlin declared as independent republics ahead of last month's invasion. ''

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/pentagon-says-russian-army-taking-defensive-positions-in-ukraine/ar-AAVq3b9?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Russia is liberating the Luhansk and Donetsk Peoples Republics from an oppressive government. This seems to have always been the primary objective of their special Military operation. Once the Eastern and Southern parts Ukraine become an independent country, Russia's borders will also be fully secured and the NATO threat emanating from a weakened, degraded regime in Kyiv will no longer be a problem.

Edited by Occult1
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It's not clear what has happened but something large is burning at the Russian occupied Berdyansk port.  Seems a Russian Rapucha-class landing ship is fleeing the port.  As recently of March 19 pictures of the remains of an intercepted Tochka-U ballistic missile were shown at Berdyansk port.

Speculation is that a Ukranian fired Tochka-U ballistic missile hit either fuel depot, ammo storage, or potentially a second landing ship.

Tweet showing the fire and Russian ship fleeing the port.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

It's not clear what has happened but something large is burning at the Russian occupied Berdyansk port.  Seems a Russian Rapucha-class landing ship is fleeing the port.  As recently of March 19 pictures of the remains of an intercepted Tochka-U ballistic missile were shown at Berdyansk port.

Speculation is that a Ukranian fired Tochka-U ballistic missile hit either fuel depot, ammo storage, or potentially a second landing ship.

Tweet showing the fire and Russian ship fleeing the port.

Just your opinion man,from what you've studied and observed...what weapon have you been most "surprised" by and think has had surprising amount of effectiveness?

Mine has to be the Turkish drones so far...

Eta... This question is actually up for anybody...

Edited by CrimsonKing
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5 hours ago, and then said:

You make a good point.  It hadn't occurred to me that he'd attack his own but if hundreds of his troops were killed in such a WMD attack it would provide him cover for going totally Roman on the cities of Ukraine.  I have no doubt he'd be capable and willing.

 

4 hours ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Expand

If he uses any type  of attack be it chemical or nukes he will takeout a lot of his military which he cannot afford nor can he move them out without drawing attention so would think at this time will stay with conventional warfare.

I meant civilians inside of Russia, not troops.

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1 hour ago, CrimsonKing said:

Just your opinion man,from what you've studied and observed...what weapon have you been most "surprised" by and think has had surprising amount of effectiveness?

Mine has to be the Turkish drones so far...

Eta... This question is actually up for anybody...

Its definitely the Turkish drones that is most surprising overall. 

Javelin, nlaw, panzerfaust 3 those were all designed to destroy Russian armor after extensive study of Russian armor and are doing exactly what they were meant to do.

There are some prototype vehicles that Ukraine has thrown out into combat but not enough information has come out on if they are effective or not.  The prototypes werent anything ground breaking being just marginal upgrades of IFVs.

Russian precision munitions have shown they arent anywhere close to being as accurate or reliable as their western counterparts which really isnt surprising.  Media and people in general frequently forget that Russia has always had problems with producing high quality computer chips and computer components which are needed to make precision munitions.  There is a reason why NATO weapon systems generally got smaller and more accurate while Russian weapon systems got bigger and able to carry larger payloads.  If you can guarantee a missile will hit within a half meter of its target you dont need a big warhead while if you can only guarantee within 5 to 10 meters than you need a rather large warhead.

Small arms are honestly a bit of a funny situation currently for Russia.  The Chechen infantry are better equipped with small arms than the Russian infantry which is kind of funny in and of itself.  Unlike the Russian infantry which are using iron sights the Chechen infantry actually has optics on most of their guns along with IR lasers and other attachments.  To top this off the Russian military spent a ton of money developing the AK-12 which a large part of its purpose was to allow Russian infantry to use optics, IR lasers, and other weapon attachments but they spent so much money developing it, along with funding various super weapons that have very limited use, that the Russian military now cant afford the optics, IR lasers, or attachments.  

Ukranian small arms are just crazy.  People have been making fun of Russian infantry being armed with Mosin Nagants from late 1800s to early 1900s but the Ukraines are just about as bad.  There are quite a few Ukranian soldiers armed with WW2 era weapons also.  One of my personal favorites is the double barrel water cooled Lewis gun with a red dot optic somehow attached which has been sighted with some Ukranian units. 

An interesting new gun Ukraine is using is a heavily modified DShK.  For people that dont know a DShK is basically the Russian version of a M2 Browning, both fire a 50 cal projectile that is nearly identical.  Technically the M2 Browning is marginally better as it fires its round a bit faster due to a slight difference in cartridge design.  DShKs are normally vehicle mounted or mounted on some kind of fixed firing position like a tripod.  What the Ukranians have done is attached a stock with a recoil system, replaced the spade grip trigger with a more regular trigger, and added a bipod to the front of the DShK so ultimately what the Ukranians have effectively did is make what is essentially an lmg that fires 50 caliber rounds.  The gun is stupidly heavy but it has allowed the Ukranians to be able to have surprisingly mobile heavy fire power which has been rather helpful.

The Turkish drones have absolutely zero reason to be as effective as they are.  They are relatively big with a large radar cross section, slow, fly relatively low for a drone, and have limited armaments but yet they keep being effective against Russian vehicles especially Russian anti-air vehicles.  This isnt even the first time Russian hardware and troops have been up against these Turkish drones.  The Russian military has anti-air vehicles whose main purpose is to destroy drones like the Turkish TB2 and they are deployed in Ukraine but yet these TB2 drones are devastating them.  It could be argued that maybe these drones are exploiting some inherent flaw in these vehicles but in Libya these same vehicles were shooting down TB2 drones easily, atleast until Turkey got involved with EW capability and radar jamming.  The whole situation with these Turkish drones just makes no sense.

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10 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

That will be hard to survive at home with all of the sanctions hitting the populace too.

IMO, Putin doesn't intend to suffer those consequences, so I believe nukes will be used at the "end" of this.

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Posted (edited)

The Ukrainians have sunk a Russian warship in Berdyansk, with another two showing signs of damage. Massive win for the Ukrainians.

They sunk the warship in the harbour, meaning that both the warship and the harbour have been taken out in one go. Good luck getting your supplies through that port, Russia.

Edited by ExpandMyMind
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Posted (IP: Staff) ·
1 hour ago, ExpandMyMind said:

The Ukrainians have sunk a Russian warship in Berdyansk, with another two showing signs of damage. Massive win for the Ukrainians.

They sunk the warship in the harbour, meaning that both the warship and the harbour have been taken out in one go. Good luck getting your supplies through that port, Russia.

More on that:

Quote

A Russian landing ship has been destroyed and two other vessels have been damaged in the occupied Ukrainian port city of Berdyansk, say Ukrainian officials.

The Ukrainian military posted footage early on Thursday and said the Orsk had been hit by its forces.

Details of what caused the explosion and fire on board the ship are unclear.

Berdyansk, which is west of the besieged port of Mariupol, was seized four days after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Russia says it has used the port as a base to ferry in equipment for its troops.

Russian army TV hailed the arrival of the Orsk in Berdyansk last week as an "epic event" as it was the first Russian warship to dock there.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60859337

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On 3/23/2022 at 2:42 AM, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Or …. Even…. Post here. Maybe he’s Helen? What a disguise!

Do not take my name in vain :w00t: 

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Bit off topic but potentially a rather concerning development for the Russian military.  It seems the Azerbaijani military is pushing the ceasefire line deeper into Armenia with troops moving to new positions.  During the last war between Azerbaijan and Armenia the Azerbaijan wiped the floor with the Armenian military and only stopped after they shot down a Russian transport helicopter and Russia threatened to get involved on the side of Armenia.  The ceasefire has been guaranteed by Russian troops who patrol the ceasefire line and occupy some towns and villages along the ceasefire line.

This could be an early indicator that nations kept in check by the Russian military no longer being afraid and could lead to more nations or peoples who have an issue with the Russian government seeing this as their best chance to take on Russia.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, ExpandMyMind said:

The Ukrainians have sunk a Russian warship in Berdyansk, with another two showing signs of damage. Massive win for the Ukrainians.

They sunk the warship in the harbour, meaning that both the warship and the harbour have been taken out in one go. Good luck getting your supplies through that port, Russia.

The Ukrainian military likely have no idea what happened. That's why they can't provide any details whatsoever. They just claimed the ''attack'' on these ships as a nice piece of propaganda.

Here again we see how Western media can be biased and not report on the facts objectively.

Here's what most likely happened:

''On the other hand, there remains a strong possibility that the explosion noted in the port was not the result of any kind of hostile activity, but instead the ammunition — or other volatile cargo — aboard the Orsk ‘cooking off’ after a fire had been started by other means, perhaps accidental. As The War Zone has discussed in the past, naval vessels can be at their most vulnerable while in port. The process of unloading cargoes of weapons, for example, would only make that situation more hazardous. ''

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44904/russian-landing-ship-destroyed-in-massive-explosion-in-captured-ukrainian-port-city

Edited by Occult1
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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

Bit off topic but potentially a rather concerning development for the Russian military.  It seems the Azerbaijani military is pushing the ceasefire line deeper into Armenia with troops moving to new positions.  During the last war between Azerbaijan and Armenia the Azerbaijan wiped the floor with the Armenian military and only stopped after they shot down a Russian transport helicopter and Russia threatened to get involved on the side of Armenia.  The ceasefire has been guaranteed by Russian troops who patrol the ceasefire line and occupy some towns and villages along the ceasefire line.

This could be an early indicator that nations kept in check by the Russian military no longer being afraid and could lead to more nations or peoples who have an issue with the Russian government seeing this as their best chance to take on Russia.

I think it’s an important point.

WW2 wasn’t a single simple war fought between the axis and allies, it was a number of individual flashpoints that overlapped as leaders aligned their interests.

It is a very dangerous time right now and it looks like Russia may have just exposed a power vacuum only filled by nuclear weapons.

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19 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

There is a strong possibility that the Ukrainian military did not attack these ships whatsoever. Here again we see how Western media can be biased and not report on the facts objectively.

Here's what most likely happened:

''On the other hand, there remains a strong possibility that the explosion noted in the port was not the result of any kind of hostile activity, but instead the ammunition — or other volatile cargo — aboard the Orsk ‘cooking off’ after a fire had been started by other means, perhaps accidental. As The War Zone has discussed in the past, naval vessels can be at their most vulnerable while in port. The process of unloading cargoes of weapons, for example, would only make that situation more hazardous. ''

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44904/russian-landing-ship-destroyed-in-massive-explosion-in-captured-ukrainian-port-city

 

Veteran Sailor On Why Navy Ships Can Be Most Vulnerable In Port And How To Change That

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/34832/veteran-sailor-on-why-navy-ships-can-be-most-vulnerable-in-port-and-how-to-change-that

Yeah, ‘We accidentally blew up our own ship, damaging two others’ sounds much better :lol:

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1 minute ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Yeah, ‘We accidentally blew up our own ship, damaging two others’ sounds much better :lol:

Heard earlier reports of Russian soldiers shooting themselves in the legs to get outta Ukraine,now it seems that their ships are doing the same... doesn't sound too good :lol:

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Yeah, ‘We accidentally blew up our own ship, damaging two others’ sounds much better :lol:

This is exactly what happened to the USS Bonhomme Richard warship in 2020. A massive fire destroyed the whole ship while moored in San Diego.

Edited by Occult1
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48 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

The Ukrainian military likely have no idea what happened. That's why they can't provide any details whatsoever. They just claimed the ''attack'' on these ships as a nice piece of propaganda.

Here again we see how Western media can be biased and not report on the facts objectively.

Here's what most likely happened:

''On the other hand, there remains a strong possibility that the explosion noted in the port was not the result of any kind of hostile activity, but instead the ammunition — or other volatile cargo — aboard the Orsk ‘cooking off’ after a fire had been started by other means, perhaps accidental. As The War Zone has discussed in the past, naval vessels can be at their most vulnerable while in port. The process of unloading cargoes of weapons, for example, would only make that situation more hazardous. ''

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44904/russian-landing-ship-destroyed-in-massive-explosion-in-captured-ukrainian-port-city

You might be right. It wouldn't be the first time Russia accidentally blew up one of their own ships. The submarine Kursk is probably the most famous example.

 

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17 hours ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Expand

If he uses any type  of attack be it chemical or nukes he will takeout a lot of his military which he cannot afford nor can he move them out without drawing attention so would think at this time will stay with conventional warfare.

Not necessarily.  Depending on atmospheric conditions, he can shell cities and cause HORRIFIC casualties in mass numbers without unduly jeopardizing his troops.  Most chemical agents would disperse relatively quickly but still have wreaked havoc.

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