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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6

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8 hours ago, razman said:

Honestly , how long do you think it would take Ukraine to get back to the military level they were before this started , if not better?

From a specifically vehicle and weapons perspective, Ukraine is going to be better than before the fight began.

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2 hours ago, and then said:

From a specifically vehicle and weapons perspective, Ukraine is going to be better than before the fight began.

On top of that Ukraine will also have access to a lot of competent, combat experienced personnel, including combat experienced reservists as well.

ETA:  When this whole saga is resolved, Ukraine will carry with it a post war justification mindset for decades to follow.  A sort of national moral acceptance that the strengthening of military and the resolve to use it is entirely justified, and this will be accepted almost universally.

Edited by Grey Area
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10 hours ago, Occult1 said:

There is no going back. Russia is simply carving out the territory needed for a proper division.

Simply?  Russia has no intentions of splitting Ukraine.  That is a fantasy of yours and yours alone.  In reality, what Russia wants is complete and total control of the Black Sea.   First they take Crimea.  Second they take Ukraine.  This gives them easy unhindered access to the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

There is no 'splitting up anything'.  Russia is a monster...a deceptive, cunning, evil monster.  There is nothing simple about that.

Is it possible that Putin is now more hated than Trump?  Nah, not even Hitler is more hated than Trump...who btw, has neither attacked nor killed anyone.

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2 hours ago, and then said:

From a specifically vehicle and weapons perspective, Ukraine is going to be better than before the fight began.

Reality is that this isn't a football game where this team will ultimately be better off for next years season with their pick of the Tight End and Running Back they traded for.

Reality is that Russia did not attack the Ukraine to 'see if they could win'.  They will win.  Bloody as can be, it doesn't matter...it is all or nothing for them and the reason the US isn't helping Ukraine is because they know that it will be WWIII and it isn't in the plan to destroy the world...but they know Russia will if it came to that.  They will take Ukraine.  From a reality standpoint, Ukraine is not going to be better at all...they will be part of Russia...once again. Sad, very sad...but true nonetheless.

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There has been what I regard as false hope raised at the talks in Istanbul. While most of the chatter about this centers on Ukraine saying they are willing to agree not to join Nato, or to procure nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, they still maintained they will not give up their claims to Crimea and the Donbass, and that the borders of Ukraine after the fighting will be the same as they were in 1991. This is something that Russia cannot, and will not, agree to, so despiote the mood music, nothing has changed on the diplomatic front at all.

Secondly, much has been made of the Russians saying that they will stop offensive operations around Kiev and Chernigov, though will not withdraw either. I believe that they should not have made that statement as it will most certainly give the impression that they are exhausted and cannot continue, and I expect triumphant posts in this thread, and many many other places, to that effect. However, I made a post last Sunday stating that the Russians were going into a defensive phase around Kiev and Chernigov (In the post I inadvertantly wrote Sumy), and that they were reconfiguring for a "bltizkrieg" to take out the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass, probably by this coming Sunday. Ukrainian defence analysts are saying that they, or more likely satellite intel supplied by the Americans, have detected that the Russians have massed at least as many forces on the border as they had at the start of this war, and there have been leaks from the Russian side over the last week showing huge columns of equipment moving towards Ukraine. So while there will be many cries about "Russia has lost", this would be premature, to say the least. They will not go this far and stop, they will at a minimum go all the way to Transnistria, taking Nikolaev and Odessa on the way, and will deny what ever remains of Ukraine access to the sea. Once you start these things you cannot row back or that really is defeat, and Putin will be deposed in short order. Nothing is impossible, but I don't see that happening.

Otherwise, no Ukrainian "counter-offensive" transpired from out of Nikolaev except a few sallies, like the one I mentioned last Sunday of a column of infantry strolling across fields behind one tank. That sally, and some further north, were dealt with by Russian Grad, with the survivors hammered by "Rooks" as they retreated to Nikolaev. The Nikolaev adminsistration building, being used for military planning, was demolished by a Russian Kalibr this morning, and columns of Russian equipment reported, by the Ukrainians themselves, said to be heading in the direction of Nikolaev. I suspect this is not a Russian offensive, just a strengthening of their forward positions. Yesterday a Ukrainian Mil-8 helicopter was shot down a few km off the coast of Mariupol. It is supected that as just one helicopter is not coming in with supplies, it would be a meaningless drop in the ocean, it was intending to evacuate the Azov commanders in Mariupol. There are thought to be about 4,000 remaining in Mariupol, that's down from about 20,000 at the start, and they are expected to try to break out in the coming days. If they have no intention of surrending they have no choice. 4,000 men, minus a last stand rearguard to cover them, could potentially make a break, but how far they would get without aircover is another matter.

This is all just my assesment, based of course on skimpy information, so as with all these things, only time will tell.

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On 3/28/2022 at 4:06 AM, Alchopwn said:

I found this article on gulagu-net purportedly from an alleged FSB agent.  I thought people might find it interesting, as I did. 

  1. One of the insiders from the special services of the Russian Federation, I will publish without edits and censorship, because this is hell: “I’ll be honest right away: I have hardly slept all these days, almost all the time at work, my head is a little floating, like in a fog. And from overwork, sometimes I already catch states, as if all this is not real.
  2. To be honest, the Pandora's box is open - a real global horror will begin by the summer - global famine is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain in the world, this year's harvest will be smaller, and logistical problems will bring the catastrophe to a peak point).
  3. I can't tell you what guided those at the top when deciding on the operation, but now they are methodically lowering all the dogs on us (the Service). We are scolded for analytics - this is very in my profile, so I will explain what is wrong.
  4. Recently, we have been increasingly pressed to customize reports to the requirements of management - I once touched on this topic. All these political consultants, politicians and their retinue, influence teams - all this created chaos. Strong.
  5. Most importantly, no one knew that there would be such a war, they hid it from everyone. And here's an example for you: you are asked (conditionally) to calculate the possibility of human rights protection in different conditions, including the attack of prisons by meteorites. You specify about meteorites, they tell you - this is so, reinsurance for calculations, nothing like this will happen. You understand that the report will be just for show, but you need to write in a victorious style so that there are no questions, they say, why do you have so many problems, did you really work badly. In general, a report is being written that when a meteorite falls, we have everything to eliminate the consequences, we are great, everything is fine. And you concentrate on tasks that are real - we don’t have enough strength anyway. And then suddenly they really throw meteorites and expect that everything will be according to your analytics, which was written from the bulldozer.
  6. That is why we have a total piz_ets - I don’t even want to pick another word. There is no protection from sanctions for the same reason: well, it’s quite possible that Nabiullina will be sewn up with negligence (rather, the switchmen from her team), but what are they to blame for? No one knew that there would be such a war, so no one prepared for such sanctions. This is the reverse side of secrecy: since no one was told, then who could calculate what no one told about?
  7.  
  8. Kadyrov is going crazy. And the conflict almost started with us: perhaps even the Ukrainians threw in misinformation that it was we who handed over the routes of Kadyrov's special forces in the first days of the operation. They were covered there on the march in a terrible way, they had not yet begun to fight, but they were simply torn to pieces in some places. And off we go: it was the FSB that leaked the routes to the Ukrainians. I do not have such information, I will leave 1-2% for reliability (it cannot be completely ruled out either).
  9. Blitzkrieg failed. It is simply impossible to complete the task now: if Zelensky and the authorities were captured in the first 1-3 days, they seized all the key buildings in Kyiv, they gave them the order to surrender - yes, the resistance would subside to the minimum values. In theory. But what's next? Even with this ideal variant, there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we demolish Zelensky, well, with whom should we sign agreements? If with Zelensky, then after we demolish it, these papers are worth nothing. Opposition Platform for Life refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, he fled. There is a second leader there - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - even his own people will not understand him. They wanted to return Tsarev, so even our pro-Russians turned against him. Return Yanukovych? But as? If we say that it is impossible to occupy, then any of our authorities will be killed there in 10 minutes, as we leave. Occupy? Where are we going to get so many people? Commandant's offices, military police, counterintelligence, security - even with minimal resistance from the locals, we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the supply system. And there is a rule that by covering the poor quality of management with quantity, you only spoil everything. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which does not exist.
  10. What now? We cannot announce mobilization for two reasons:
  11. 1) Large-scale mobilization will undermine the situation inside the country: political, economic, social.
  12. 2) Our logistics are already overstretched today. We will drive a many times larger contingent, and what will we get? Ukraine is a hefty country in terms of territory. And now the level of hatred towards us is going through the roof. Our roads simply won't be able to handle such supply caravans - everything will come to a standstill. And we won't manage to pull it out - because it's chaos.
  13. And these two reasons fall out at the same time, although even one is enough to break everything off.
  14.  
  15. Losses: I don't know how many there are. Nobody knows. For the first two days there was still control, now no one knows what is going on there. You can lose large units in communication. They can be found, or they can dissolve due to being attacked. And there, even the commanders may not know how many of them are running around somewhere nearby, how many died, how many are in captivity. The number of deaths is definitely in the thousands. Maybe 10 thousand, maybe 5, or maybe only 2. Even at the headquarters they don’t know for sure. But it should be closer to 10. And now we don’t count the LDNR corps - they have their own accounting.
  16. Now, even if Zelensky is killed, taken prisoner, nothing will change. There is Chechnya in terms of hatred towards us. And now even those who were loyal to us are against it. Because it was planned from above, because we were told that there would be no such option, unless we were attacked. Because they explained that it was necessary to create the most credible threat in order to peacefully agree on the right conditions. Because we were initially preparing protests within Ukraine against Zelensky. Excluding our direct entry. Intrusions, to put it simply.
  17. Further civilian losses will go exponentially - and resistance to us will also only increase. They already tried to enter the cities with infantry - out of twenty landing groups, only one had a conditional success. Remember the assault on Mosul - after all, this is the rule, so it was in all countries, nothing new.
  18. Keep under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be under siege for years, and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe there are a matter of time.
  19. We have a conditional deadline of June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy left, nothing remains. By and large, next week there will be a turning point in one of the sides, simply because the situation cannot be in such an overstrain. There are no analytics - it is impossible to calculate the chaos, here no one can say anything for sure. Act intuitively, and even on emotions - but this is not poker for you. Rates will rise, in the hope that suddenly some option will shoot through. The trouble is that we, too, can now miscalculate and lose everything in one move.
  20. By and large, the country has no way out. It’s just that there is no option for a possible victory, and defeat is everything, sailed at all. They 100% repeated the beginning of the last century, when they decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory, then it turned out that the army was in trouble. then they started the war to the bitter end, then they began to take the Bolsheviks for "re-education" into the army - after all, they were outcasts, uninteresting to anyone in the masses. And then, the Bolsheviks, who were not really known to anyone, picked up anti-war slogans and it started like this ...
  21.  
  22. From the pros: we did everything so that even a hint of the mass sending of "penalty boxes" to the front line did not pass. Send convicts and "socially unreliable" political prisoners there (so that they don't mess with the water inside the country) - the morale of the army will simply go into the negative. And the enemy is motivated, terribly motivated. He knows how to fight, there are enough middle-level commanders there. There are weapons. They have support. We will simply set a precedent for human loss in the world. And that's it.
  23. What we are most afraid of: at the top, they act according to the rule of overlapping the old problem with a new problem. Largely for this reason, the Donbass of 2014 began - it was necessary to divert the attention of Westerners from the topic of the Russian spring in Crimea, so the Donbass crisis, it seems, should have drawn all the attention to itself and become the subject of bargaining. But there were even bigger problems. Then they decided to push Erdogan into 4 pipes of the South Stream and entered Syria - this is after Soleimani gave deliberately false inputs in order to solve his problems. As a result, it was not possible to close the issue with Crimea, there are also problems with the Donbass, the South Stream has shrunk to 2 pipes, and Syria has hung with another headache (if we go out, they will demolish Assad, which will make us look like idiots, but it’s also difficult and useless to sit).
  24. I don't know who came up with the "Ukrainian Blitzkrieg". If we were given real introductory information, we would at least indicate that the original plan is controversial, that we need to double-check a lot. A lot of things. Now we got into the **** somewhere up to the neck. And it is not clear what to do. "Denazification" and "demilitarization" are not analytical categories, because they do not have clearly defined parameters by which one can determine the level of accomplishment or non-completion of the task.
  25. Now it remains to be seen that some ****ing adviser will convince the top to start a conflict with Europe demanding to reduce some sanctions. Or reduce, or war. What if they refuse? Now I do not rule out that then we will be drawn into a real international conflict, like Hitler in 1939. And then our Z will be compared to us with a swastika.
  26. Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it will not give anything - this is a defense breakthrough weapon), but with the aim of intimidating others. At the same time, the soil is being prepared to turn everything to Ukraine - Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging the earth to prove that they secretly created nuclear weapons there. Damn, they are now hammering on what we have long studied and dismantled: you can’t draw evidence here on your knee, and the presence of specialists and uranium (Ukraine has a lot of depleted isotope 238) is nothing. There the production cycle is such that you can’t do it imperceptibly. You can’t even make a “dirty” bomb imperceptibly, but the fact that their old nuclear power plants can produce weapons-grade plutonium (plants like REB-1000 produce it in minimal quantities as a “by-product” of the reaction) - so the Americans introduced such control there with the involvement of the IAEA, that sucking on the topic is stupid.
  27. Do you know what will happen next week? Well, even after two. Now it will cover us so much that we will start to miss the hungry 90s. While the auction was closed, Nabiullina seemed to be taking normal steps - but this is all like plugging a hole in a dam with a finger. It will still break through, and even stronger. Nothing will be decided in 3, 5, or 10 days.
  28. Kadyrov beats his hoof for a reason - they have their own adventures there. He created for himself the image of the most influential and invincible. And if it falls once, it will be taken down by its own people. He will no longer be the owner of the winning teip.
  29. We go further. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will be over in Ukraine - and there in Syria we will again strengthen everything in positions." And now, at any moment, they can wait there for the contingent to run out of resources - and such a heat will set in ... Turkey blocks the straits - to transport supplies there by planes, it's like heating an oven with money.
  30. Notice that all this is happening at the same time, we don’t even have time to bring everything into one heap. We have a situation, like in Germany in the 43-44th. At the start right away. Sometimes I am already lost from this overwork, sometimes it seems that everything was a dream and it was a dream, that everything is as before.
  31.  
  32. In prisons, by the way, it will be worse. Now the nuts will begin to tighten so that to the bloody ichor. Everywhere. To be honest, purely technically, this remains the only chance to keep the situation - we are already in the mode of total mobilization. But you can’t stay in such a regime for a long time, and we have ambiguity with the timing and it will only get worse for now. From mobilization, management always goes astray. Yes, and imagine: you can run a hundred meters in a snatch, but it’s bad to go to a marathon distance and give a jerk with all your might. Here we rushed with the Ukrainian question, as if we were running a hundred meters, and fit into a cross-country marathon.
  33. And that's what I'm talking about very, very briefly.
  34. From the cynical, I will only add that I do not believe that VV Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.
  35. Firstly, there is more than one person making a decision, at least someone will jump off. And there are a lot of people there - there is no "one-man red button".
  36. Secondly, there are some doubts that everything is functioning successfully there. Experience shows that the greater the transparency and control, the easier it is to identify shortcomings. And where it is not clear who controls and how, but always bravura reports - everything is always wrong there. I'm not sure if the red button system works as advertised. In addition, the plutonium charge must be changed every 10 years.
  37. Thirdly, and this is the most vile and sad thing, I personally do not believe in the readiness to sacrifice oneself of a person who does not let the members of the Federation Council, but his closest representatives and ministers, come close to him. For fear of the coronavirus or an attack, it doesn't matter. If you are afraid to let the most trusted people near you, then how will you dare to destroy yourself and your loved ones, inclusive?
  38. If anything - ask, but I can not answer for several days. We are in rush mode, and there are more and more tasks.
  39. In general, our reports are peppy, but everything flies in the pi_du.
  40. Never before has this Gulagu.net source swearing, writing short and to the point. But even now he...

Translated using paste bin because I am too lazy to do it all myself despite being passable at Russian.  Looks like bumper times for US agriculture ahead. 

Those who have the money should seriously consider investing in Grain futures, but I am no expert so make of that what you will.

Next, given the hopeless standard of maintenance of Russian military equipment, there is a high chance that the nuclear arsenal which generally relies on tritium (not plutonium) will not have been replaced, and the missiles which were commissioned (likely before even my childhood) in all likelihood have not been properly maintained under Russia's Putin kleptocracy.  Putin's new nuclear glide bombs are likely very unreliable too.  The last one tested left the Arkangelsk Oblast polluted with radioactive material.

Maybe not so much grains. While they are the leading grains suppliers as the bread basket of Europe, they are't actually World leaders in the majority of the grains. There's a lot more going on, but Black Sea disruptions are anticipated and there is projection rises. Corn is a bit disrupted and will show it, but right now wheat is still projected as stable over a slow 2021. The rest of the grains have shake outs- rice is likely going to continue it's yearly fluxes of a drop by the end of the year with a peak next. Oats and rye will likely be taking a hit. Barley will be disrupted and most likely see the impact in the malting. Legumes aren't really affected... except soy. Grains futures probably aren't for the faint of heart, but it can depend on which grains out of which suppliers might play well or at a loss. 

Oil is looking interesting. They heavily dominate the lead in the world sunflower share. And big in the rapeseed share. Those disruptions are already noted, projected, and oils are already shifting because of this. This can shift some of the soy shares and palm is showing shifting projections. Sugarbeet is another one- Russia leads, and France is still having disease difficulties they have been having for a couple years, and the U.S. is also having issues with lower extractions and higher pile. Some of the combinations of this will likely lead into a price increases in the confectionery and sweets industry and other food processors that use beet sugar. 

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Kyiv: Russia says it will reduce military operations around capital following Ukraine talks

Russia said it would "drastically reduce" its military assault on the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv after talks took place between representatives of the two nations on Tuesday, as Ukrainian officials claimed Russian troops were withdrawing from battlefronts there because they had failed in their goals.

The Russian defense ministry has decided to "radically, at times, reduce military activity" in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv, deputy defense minister Alexander Fomin said, state media RIA reported. The ministry's Telegram channel also said that Moscow would "drastically reduce military activity" in the cities.

[...]

Fomin told reporters that the ongoing discussions regarding the "neutrality and non-nuclear status of Ukraine" had contributed to the decision. More details on the steps to reduce hostilities will follow after the Russian delegation returns from Istanbul, Fomin said in remarks carried by Russian state news agency TASS.''

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kyiv-russia-says-it-will-reduce-military-operations-around-capital-following-ukraine-talks/ar-AAVCFVD?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

There are reports that Ukraine has made a major concession on a permanent neutrality status. As a gesture of goodwill in these negotiations, Russia has decided to withdraw troops near Kyiv.

Edited by Occult1
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7 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

There are reports that Ukraine has made a major concession on a permanent neutrality status. As a gesture of goodwill in these negotiations, Russia has decided to withdraw troops near Kyiv.

Not even close but why change tack now eh?

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8 hours ago, and then said:

Naval electronic warfare aircraft are being sent to eastern Europe.  

If your interested in keeping tabs on what is in theater here is a web site that tracks planes that are transponding. You'll see tankers, recon planes like AWACS and an occasional delta wing plane and all delta wing shapes are either fighters or trainers. There are two modes Map mode single and multi. The image here is with multi selected.

If you see a tanker on station then you know there are fighters in the area. There was a F-15 this morning over Rzesvow Poland flying cap. Rzeszow seems to be the to go place for the heavy lifters such as C17 Globemasters III.

https://www.flightradar24.com/48.35,19.57/6

Helpful call signs to search for in the search option are.

RRR-RAF heavy lifters

RCH-US heavy lifters

SAM-USAF VIP planes.

LAGR-tankers various governments

FORTE-These are unmanned Global Hawks.

This is a civilian tracking system and the military uses their own and probably the only reason we get to see them is the military wants to make sure Russia sees them. These are on station only during the daytime except for maybe the Global Hawks as they can loiter for a very long time.

 

On Site Today.jpg

Edited by Buzz_Light_Year
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1 hour ago, Setton said:

Not even close but why change tack now eh?

Ukraine offers neutrality in exchange for security guarantees at Russia talks

''LVIV — Ukraine proposed adopting neutral status in exchange for security guarantees at the latest round of talks with Russia, meaning it would not join military alliances or host military bases, Ukrainian negotiators said on Tuesday.

The proposals would also include a 15-year consultation period on the status of annexed Crimea and could come into force only in the event of a complete ceasefire, the negotiators told reporters in Istanbul.''

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/ukraine-offers-neutrality-in-exchange-for-security-guarantees-at-russia-talks

 

Ukraine has OFFERED neutrality. They are willing to accept that now. They even propose a 15 years moratorium on the status of annexed Crimea (which there is no way they can get back).

 

Edited by Occult1
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14 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Ukraine offers neutrality in exchange for security guarantees at Russia talks

''LVIV — Ukraine proposed adopting neutral status in exchange for security guarantees at the latest round of talks with Russia, meaning it would not join military alliances or host military bases, Ukrainian negotiators said on Tuesday.

The proposals would also include a 15-year consultation period on the status of annexed Crimea and could come into force only in the event of a complete ceasefire, the negotiators told reporters in Istanbul.''

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/ukraine-offers-neutrality-in-exchange-for-security-guarantees-at-russia-talks

 

Ukraine has OFFERED neutrality. They are willing to accept that now. They even propose a 15 years moratorium on the status of annexed Crimea (which there is no way they can get back).

 

I have a better offer. Russia packs their bags and leave and pay to rebuild Ukraine and compensate those who lost family members. Also Vlad Pootin be brought before the Hague for war crimes.

Furthermore Russia will de-communize and de-militarize.

Just get out it isn't your country and it isn't your problem.

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Guest Br Cornelius

Who in their right mind would trust Russian Security Guarantees ?
The same trustworthy bunch who swore they weren't going to invade. **** off Russia (and your propagandist cronies).
Br Cornelius

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5 minutes ago, Br Cornelius said:

Who in their right mind would trust Russian Security Guarantees ?

Br Cornelius

In the written proposal for a peace treaty offered by Ukraine, they ask for ''NATO-like'' security guarantees in exchange for permanent neutrality.

They seek a security guarantee similar to that contained in Article 5 from NATO.

Russia, the UK, China, the US, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel are named as possible providers.

 

Edited by Occult1
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Guest Br Cornelius
2 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

In the written proposal for a peace treaty offered by Ukraine, they ask for ''NATO-like'' security guarantees in exchange for permanent neutrality.

They seek a security guarantee similar to that contained in Article 5 from NATO.

Russia, the UK, China, the US, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel are named as possible providers.

 

From a country that invaded them and slaughtered its citizens for no good reason.
If Russia had an ounce of credibility or honour such a treaty would be worth signing, but they don't.

Br Cornelius

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10 minutes ago, Br Cornelius said:

From a country that invaded them and slaughtered its citizens for no good reason.
If Russia had an ounce of credibility or honour such a treaty would be worth signing, but they don't.

Br Cornelius

If the US/NATO had seriously considered Russia's security concerns, there would have been no war. Seems hard for a lot of people to get that.

A diplomatic treaty to the nature of what is currently negotiated could have been signed prior to a significant conflict escalation.

As we can see, Ukraine will have to concede to a large degree to Russia's terms anyway.

Edited by Occult1
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Guest Br Cornelius
4 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

If the US/NATO had seriously considered Russia's security concerns, there would have been no war. Seems hard for a lot of people to get that.

A diplomatic treaty to the nature of what is currently negotiated could have been signed prior to a significant conflict escalation.

As we can see, Ukraine will have to concede to a large degree to Russia's terms anyway.

They did consider their security concerns - which is why they were not admitted into NATO, but a country is free to choose its own destiny not have it chosen for it.
Russia will gain nothing but destitution from this war because whilstever it hold onto illegally won territory it will be sanctioned into the stone age.
There is no future for Russia short of total withdrawal.

Br Cornelius

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6 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

As we can see, Ukraine will have to concede to a large degree to Russia's terms anyway.

Hi Occult

What do you think that they can use for leverage to get their way obviously attacking a free country didn't work that well?

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Guest Br Cornelius

Russia has been brought low by a psychopathic megalomaniac.  Its a terrible shame for the good people of Russia.

Br Cornelius

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11 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

If the US/NATO had seriously considered Russia's security concerns, there would have been no war. Seems hard for a lot of people to get that.

A diplomatic treaty to the nature of what is currently negotiated could have been signed prior to a significant conflict escalation.

As we can see, Ukraine will have to concede to a large degree to Russia's terms anyway.

So being in NATO was a security concern for Russia but the most powerful members of NATO guaranteeing Ukraine's security with their militaries is not a security concern for Russia.

You do see the irony in that right

Edited by DarkHunter
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27 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

In the written proposal for a peace treaty offered by Ukraine, they ask for ''NATO-like'' security guarantees in exchange for permanent neutrality.

They seek a security guarantee similar to that contained in Article 5 from NATO.

Russia, the UK, China, the US, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel are named as possible providers.

 

They already had a security guarantee in the Budapest Memorandum of which Russia signed.

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10 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

So being in NATO was a security concern for Russia but the most powerful members of NATO guaranteeing Ukraine's security with their militaries is not a security concern for Russia.

Not at all. It would be more like the U.N. Security Council in charge of Ukraine's security. Russia and China would most likely be involved as guarantor countries.

 

"If we manage to consolidate these key provisions, and for us this is the most fundamental, then Ukraine will be in a position to actually fix its current status as a non-bloc and non-nuclear state in the form of permanent neutrality," said negotiator Oleksander Chaly.

"We will not host foreign military bases on our territory, as well as deploy military contingents on our territory, and we will not enter into military-political alliances," he said, in comments broadcast on Ukrainian national television.

"Military exercises on our territory will take place with the consent of the guarantor countries."

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-29/ukraine-offers-neutrality-in-exchange-for-nato-style-security-guarantees-at-russia-talks

Edited by Occult1
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10 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

They already had a security guarantee in the Budapest Memorandum of which Russia signed.

The Budapest Memorandum contains security 'assurances,' not 'guarantees.'

It was not ratified by each state's senate, which is required of a formal treaty. It does not make the memorandum legally binding.

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10 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Not at all. It would be more like the U.N. Security Council in charge of Ukraine's security. Russia and China would most likely be involved as guarantor countries.

 

"If we manage to consolidate these key provisions, and for us this is the most fundamental, then Ukraine will be in a position to actually fix its current status as a non-bloc and non-nuclear state in the form of permanent neutrality," said negotiator Oleksander Chaly.

"We will not host foreign military bases on our territory, as well as deploy military contingents on our territory, and we will not enter into military-political alliances," he said, in comments broadcast on Ukrainian national television.

"Military exercises on our territory will take place with the consent of the guarantor countries."

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-29/ukraine-offers-neutrality-in-exchange-for-nato-style-security-guarantees-at-russia-talks

Its essentially the exact same as NATO.  How is requiring each gurantor to provide military aid to Ukraine, including troops, to Ukraine incase they are attacked different than NATO's collective defense.  While China and Russia could decide not to come to Ukraine's aid they couldnt stop America, UK, France, and I believe Germany from getting involved which would in effect be the same as Ukraine in NATO.

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8 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Its essentially the exact same as NATO.  How is requiring each gurantor to provide military aid to Ukraine, including troops, to Ukraine incase they are attacked different than NATO's collective defense.  While China and Russia could decide not to come to Ukraine's aid they couldnt stop America, UK, France, and I believe Germany from getting involved which would in effect be the same as Ukraine in NATO.

It's not the same as NATO if Russia and China are involved.

It would violate the principles of permanent neutrality if only NATO countries are charged to come to Ukraine's aid.

Security guarantors will likely be legally bound to provide security to Ukraine by an international agreement.

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Just now, Occult1 said:

It's not the same as NATO if Russia and China are involved.

It would violate the principles of permanent neutrality if only NATO countries are charged to come to Ukraine's aid.

Security guarantors will likely be legally bound to provide security to Ukraine by an international agreement.

You can spin it as much as you want but the reality is this is essentially the exact same as Ukraine being in NATO.  

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