Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[Raptor Witness]

The stage is being set for a Russian invasion of the Saudi and Iraqi Oil Fields, possibly with Iran’s and Syria’s help.

There’s no army standing in Putin’s way if he moves south and makes a more lucrative land grab.

Putin will then control enough oil to do some real damage to the West’s interests, or we risk a much more costly war.

His desperation only grows more obvious by the day. Soon, he will have nothing left to gain, but a bigger land grab, where the value, really is. Ukraine has grain, but that’s about it.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Raptor Witness

[Helen of Annoy]

1 hour ago, and then said:

Interesting premise.

It's total trolling of premise. 

Donbas is simply an area, not even a province or any other historically identifiable entity. It was known for its industry, it was an industrial area, but that was destroyed by now. Russia is not fighting for industrial might of Donbas, that does not exist anymore, Russia is simply latching on the areas they managed to keep after the initial 2014 attack.  

They would love to seize actual Ukrainian industry, especially highly specialized military production and services, particularly for the aviation. One of the reasons why the remake of USSR has to start with Ukraine, besides being the bread basket and cannon fodder source too. Yeah, I'd too wish I had Ukraine if I was Putin, but thank god I'm not.   

In that hour-long Putin's prattle he invented a whole alternative history in which there's actually no Ukraine, it's all Russia. I don't doubt he's got similar quasi-historic "explanations" for Russification of anything and anyone, North Pole and Moon included. 

The reaction of the EU is not "mild", it's developing rationally. And it certainly has got nothing to do with Scotland simply because Scotland and Donbas share no similarities. 

 

 

1 hour ago, and then said:

It will take significant time to build and bring new terminals online.  The vessels to ship the gas in are limited, as well.  Japan has depended on LNG for decades as well as the oil coming from the Persian Gulf.  It will be interesting to see if Europe begins to invest in LNG at the level it would require to replace the flow from Russia.

Yes, significant time and expense. There's also the problem of local natural gas infrastructure, that is different in different countries. LNG traffic was already increased, situation is not dramatic at the moment but it is not ideal (the reserves are lower than usual at this time of the year). There are other pipelines to Europe which don't go through Russia or transport Russian gas, which are not used to the maximum capacity yet. 

Since ng is still flowing in from Russia, albeit half of the usual, the hard sanctions weren't implemented yet, there was no need yet to activate the full capacity of other sources. 

In short, theoretically, it's possible to make up for Russian natural gas entirely, by increasing supply from elsewhere, all within available quotas. 

But theory is one thing and practice something else. It's not realistic to rely on theoretical calculation that allows no margin. 

LNG can significantly change the situation, but still not enough. 

Other sources will have to be used. Serious other sources, not experimental or low yield ones. So, nuclear power plants. 

Germany decided to shut their nuclear plants down, France decided to build more of them. I think France has a point. 

No one can know when and if Russia will be cooperative again, so it's time to start building now, in order to have available sources of energy in few years. It doesn't have to be operational tomorrow, but building it has to start "yesterday". Right now, that is. 

Edited February 23, 2022 by Helen of Annoy

[+DieChecker]

12 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

Oh, FFS 

As if you're not aware Ukraine is defending Ukrainian territory. They need western support, but it's actually Putin's talking point that it's the USA that decides upon everything. 

 

Ukrainian Minister of defense Kuleba said that if these sanctions are the indeed the initial package (implying there will be more to come) they look pretty strong. 

But trumpers know better than Ukrainian defense minister?! After Trump slobbered over Putin's "genial" acts of aggression?! 

Well, if you're good with Russia permanently taking Ukrainian land in exchange for sanctions that are probably not going to last more then a couple years... Then I guess I'm good with it too. (Sarcasm)

When Russia got sanctions for taking Crimea it really taught them. Taught them they will get away with land grabs.

[Helen of Annoy]

56 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Well, if you're good with Russia permanently taking Ukrainian land in exchange for sanctions that are probably not going to last more then a couple years... Then I guess I'm good with it too. (Sarcasm)

When Russia got sanctions for taking Crimea it really taught them. Taught them they will get away with land grabs.

I'll keep it short: your opinion is different than mine and mine happens to be the same as the opinion of Ukrainian Minister of defense. 

It's probably because said Minister is thinking about Ukrainian situation when he's making his opinion about sanctions against Russia, not trying to shape it so it fits the domestic needs of one particular American political option (unfortunately helping Putin too).  

I'd greatly appreciate if you'd try noticing that all this uproar against sanctions comes from two sources: one are naive trumpers, wanting to **** Brandon, not understanding the larger picture and the other are actual ****ing Putin's provocateurs, trying to create an impression that sanctions won't work so why trying with them at all? 

Because they do work, that's why. 

How the **** stopping all trade and transactions with a country wouldn't work? It can't magically put brain back in Putin's head, but it can take his financial ability to lead expansionist wars away, or at least stop him from financing his propaganda and his politicians in the West, which would be quite nice too.

[TrumanB]

As far as I see no country in the world supports Putin's adventure in Ukraine and that's a good thing.  Some won't confront Russia as they have mutual interests (such as China) but I highly doubt that anyone will care about recognizing Donjeck and Lugansk.

Even Serbian president whom I despise underlined that we support territorial integrity and sovereignty (which is understandable given our situation with Kosovo) of Ukraine.

 

So in the short run I'd say that Russia can profit from usurping Ukraine but long-term this can gravely undermine their position in the world and historical books. Too bad, I believe that Russian people deserve a better leadership.

Edited February 23, 2022 by TrumanB

[TrumanB]

By the way, I've just read on Quora that Cuba and Venezuela are the only countries supporting Russia. Two failed communist/socialist projects. It's kind of disgracing and tells a lot about nowadays Russian politics.

Edited February 23, 2022 by TrumanB

[DarkHunter]

Rumors circulating online that the Russian offensive will start at 4 am Ukranian time, so in about 3 hours.

That is just a rumor but it's out there.

[TrumanB]

2 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Rumors circulating online that the Russian offensive will start at 4 am Ukranian time, so in about 3 hours.

That is just a rumor but it's out there.

There was also 'a confidential intelligence' that Russian would attack on last Wednesday but that didn't happen. They may strike when no one predicts it.

 

[DarkHunter]

28 minutes ago, TrumanB said:

There was also 'a confidential intelligence' that Russian would attack on last Wednesday but that didn't happen. They may strike when no one predicts it.

 

When Zelenskiy tried to call Putin he did not take the call, the mayor of Kiev has called a state of emergency for the city and set up a headquarters to organize the efforts of the executive branch, Ukranian military, and law enforcement.  France minutes ago issued a statement telling all French citizens to leave Ukraine immediately.  NOTAMs being issued for multiple airports/regions in Ukraine.  Earlier today it seems Russia was testing EW systems in the Donbas region.  Rumors that last night Russia violated Ukranian airspace to test their anti-air response.

[DarkHunter]

Airspace over eastern Ukraine has been closed

[+Nuclear Wessel]

1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

Airspace over eastern Ukraine has been closed

Check out flightradar24.com - you can see some spypanes like the FORTE11 and FORTE12 doing recon over Ukraine, and even flight paths of certain USAF/VVS (Russian airforce). Very interesting stuff.

[DarkHunter]

29 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Check out flightradar24.com - you can see some spypanes like the FORTE11 and FORTE12 doing recon over Ukraine, and even flight paths of certain USAF/VVS (Russian airforce). Very interesting stuff.

A few last minute aircraft are doing interesting things right now.  A plane that just took off immediately landed, an Israeli plane entered Ukranian airspace and immediately turned around and left at the same time.

[DarkHunter]

Russian military leadership are in command centers and cyber attacks on Ukraine have started.  This might be the start of the Russian invasion.

[+Nuclear Wessel]

1 minute ago, DarkHunter said:

Russian military leadership are in command centers and cyber attacks on Ukraine have started.  This might be the start of the Russian invasion.

Source?

[DarkHunter]

1 minute ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Source?

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/russia-ukraine/?id=82467772

Cant easily copy paste links anymore on here

[+and-then]

8 hours ago, South Alabam said:

Comrade Trump is not going to make Biden look good, so naturally he will praise Putin.

Care to list all the sanctions that Biden has put into place against Putin, PRIOR to those he's about to name?  I've listed those Trump put in place.  It's quite a long list.  Ignoring them doesn't mean they aren't real and part of the official record. 

That inconvenient truth aside, what do you think we SHOULD do against Putin in this instance?  Should we send troops into Ukraine?  Should we try to create a no fly zone over the country?

[DarkHunter]

Russian strategic bomber fleet apparently sending a ton of short messages to ground control.

[+DieChecker]

5 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

I'll keep it short: your opinion is different than mine and mine happens to be the same as the opinion of Ukrainian Minister of defense. 

It's probably because said Minister is thinking about Ukrainian situation when he's making his opinion about sanctions against Russia, not trying to shape it so it fits the domestic needs of one particular American political option (unfortunately helping Putin too).  

I'd greatly appreciate if you'd try noticing that all this uproar against sanctions comes from two sources: one are naive trumpers, wanting to **** Brandon, not understanding the larger picture and the other are actual ****ing Putin's provocateurs, trying to create an impression that sanctions won't work so why trying with them at all? 

Because they do work, that's why. 

How the **** stopping all trade and transactions with a country wouldn't work? It can't magically put brain back in Putin's head, but it can take his financial ability to lead expansionist wars away, or at least stop him from financing his propaganda and his politicians in the West, which would be quite nice too.

Against sanctions??? When did I say that? I'm against ONLY doing sanctions. The US should throw unconditional support behind Ukraine, including flying tens of thousands of soldiers there to do "UN Peacekeeping". I feel a limp response will just embolden Putin, and he'll keep the land he grabs. Putin realizes that sanctions are aimed at changing his mind, but he's playing a long game, so he'll sacrifice in the short term.

Answer this... Did sanctions hand the Crimea back to Ukraine?

Edited February 24, 2022 by DieChecker

[DarkHunter]

Unconfirmed reports of a grad barrage near Mariupul.

Camera feed at a border crossing at Crimea got cut after a guard was shown fleeing the area, that was about 40 minutes ago.

[DarkHunter]

Putin just declared a special military operation against Ukraine.  Says the goal is the demilitarization of Ukraine and to punish Nazis and criminals.

Now hearing Putin has declared war on Ukraine

Edited February 24, 2022 by DarkHunter

[+Nuclear Wessel]

Jesus ****ing Christ.

[DarkHunter]

Massive explosions heard in Ukranian cities.

Been confirmed that Russian ballistic missiles have been fired at Ukraine.

Edited February 24, 2022 by DarkHunter

[+susieice]

ABC Breaking News....it is believed that Russia has invaded. ABC News is airing the situation live as breaking news. Pentagon says the invasion has begun. Russian troops are moving in. You can hear the explosions.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/russia-ukraine/?id=82467772

Edited February 24, 2022 by susieice

[odas]

May God be with my Ukrainian Brothers and Sisters.

People, it does not look good. We failed again.

[DarkHunter]

2 minutes ago, susieice said:

ABC Breaking News....it is believed that Russia has invaded.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/russia-ukraine/?id=82467772

Its not believed, its happening, videos of MLRS units firing across the Ukranian border, Kiev has been hit by ballistic missiles along with Odessa, and two other Ukranian cities

Edited February 24, 2022 by DarkHunter