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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6

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Consider this post dripping with irony, as a reminder not to believe everything you see on TV or read online. There's their side, our side and somewhere, lost and wounded on the battlefield, is the ugly truth. 

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United Kingdom defense minister said recently that Ukraine will be supplied with armored vehicles and long range artillery after an earlier donor conference today.  Not sure what the equipment will be exactly, presuming it will be largely Soviet equipment from eastern Europe.  Western equipment would require months of training on top of it's own ammunition, parts/tools, and maintenance crews.

Edited by DarkHunter
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Russia denies that their forces have left Gostomel, and says that the Pentagon have gotten confused over exactly what Russia is doing with this "pause" and redeployment.

In other news, Ukrainian forces have retaken Kiev with the help of Steiner's army, while Wenck is fighting his way through to Mariupol.

And speaking of Mariupol. Today the Ukrainians made another attempt to evacuate people. This time a helicopter managed to land and then take off. After it had flown outside of Ukrainian controlled areas it was shot down by a Stinger, captured from Ukrainians previously. The helicopter crashed and 16 people were killed and two survived. Preliminary reports say that two of the dead were French military intelligence officers, which may be connected to the sacking of the head of their Military intelligence, and Macron's repeated calls for Putin to allow Ukrainian forces to evacuate Mariupol. Intelligence, presumably from the two survivors, shows that about 20 US and UK military officers are still in Mariupol, presumably hoping to have been evacuated on yet another helicopter that failed to get to the city today. I believe it was also shot down. IMO, an agreement should have been reached between these Nato officers and the Russians to allow them to get out of the city safely, and inconspicuously, as their deaths serve no purpose. I suspect that Macron may not have told Putin that these guys were there, maybe out of embarrassment or an overriding desire for secrecy, or even connected with the upcoming presidential elections and not wanting it known that French officers were involved in the fighting in Ukraine. The US and UK would I think never have admitted that these guys were there, or rather still are there, and now with not much hope of survival, though now the cat is out of the bag, maybe, hopefully, a means can be found to evacuate them with any fuss and publicity, but I think there may be a storm in France over this.

Edited by Wepwawet
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32 minutes ago, Wepwawet said:

And speaking of Mariupol. Today the Ukrainians made another attempt to evacuate people. This time a helicopter managed to land and then take off. After it had flown outside of Ukrainian controlled areas it was shot down by a Stinger, captured from Ukrainians previously. The helicopter crashed and 16 people were killed and two survived. Preliminary reports say that two of the dead were French military intelligence officers, which may be connected to the sacking of the head of their Military intelligence, and Macron's repeated calls for Putin to allow Ukrainian forces to evacuate Mariupol. Intelligence, presumably from the two survivors, shows that about 20 US and UK military officers are still in Mariupol, presumably hoping to have been evacuated on yet another helicopter that failed to get to the city today. I believe it was also shot down. IMO, an agreement should have been reached between these Nato officers and the Russians to allow them to get out of the city safely, and inconspicuously, as their deaths serve no purpose. I suspect that Macron may not have told Putin that these guys were there, maybe out of embarrassment or an overriding desire for secrecy, or even connected with the upcoming presidential elections and not wanting it known that French officers were involved in the fighting in Ukraine. The US and UK would I think never have admitted that these guys were there, or rather still are there, and now with not much hope of survival, though now the cat is out of the bag, maybe, hopefully, a means can be found to evacuate them with any fuss and publicity, but I think there may be a storm in France over this.

Thd helicopter was shot down, pictures prove that, but everything else you are saying has absolutely zero information backing it.  I seen the pictures of the wreckage and the dead bodies, it seems the helicopter was evacuating out wounded Ukranian combatants.  No reports of any non-Ukranians on that helicopter except from Russian sources it seems.

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Ukrainian military has liberated more towns around Kyiv and have largely secured the M-06 highway and is working on securing the M-07 highway.  Unconfirmed reports that the Ukranian military also secured a road to Chernihiv, largely breaking the siege/encirclement of the city.

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8 hours ago, Noteverythingisaconspiracy said:

I'm not upset,  just tired of a discussion that was going nowhere. 

People who are defending Russia, like Cooki Monster, are defending the killing of innocent people. I think it's worth calling him out on that. Does he care about those people ? Probably not. 

I hear ya man,as I said just don't take any of it personally...

I myself just want to hear more than 1 streamlined narrative and opinion,I want the whole story...if I feel I reading 100% propaganda from either side I just ignore it.

I actually just prefer to laugh at the Russian militaries blunders as several have been well proven after so many decades of being told how formidable and bad ass they were...

Meh when I started seeing Hollywood stars start running out from the cover of darkness like a bunch of cockroaches in their "love and support of Ukraine",I already knew too much fake "emotion" would get slathered on the situation...I try not to worry to much about what others care about.

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This is a human tragedy for both sides and I find nothing amusing about it. This was supposed to be another Czechoslovakia, a little shock and awe, roll in the tanks and presto, present the West with a fait accompli and we're all one big happy Slavic family, again. It didn't happen that way. Putin's very own Operation Barbarossa blew up in his face and Ukraine turned into Finland, 1939, instead.

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3 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

This is a human tragedy for both sides and I find nothing amusing about it. This was supposed to be another Czechoslovakia, a little shock and awe, roll in the tanks and presto, present the West with a fait accompli and we're all one big happy Slavic family, again. It didn't happen that way. Putin's very own Operation Barbarossa blew up in his face and Ukraine turned into Finland, 1939, instead.

No doubt,it is slow moving train wreck for humanity in general...the longer this plays out the refugee's will hit crisis levels,wheat and grain shortages will eventually lead to mass starvation,heating and fuel shortages too top it off...straight up disaster!

Have too excuse me finding all this talk of "Mighty Russia" amusing though,as that's all I've heard about for the majority of my 37 years, except for a brief stint called the 90's.

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Guest Br Cornelius

Russia has become the classic example of a resource rich country where corruption has caused a concentration of power and wealth in the hands of a tiny elite. The population at large gets poorer as the elite gets richer all because that elite has a ready cash cow so they do nothing to invest in the development of the country, its population and its industry.

This is usually the pattern in resource rich African countries. Russia has effectively become a developing nation with all the problems that entails.
The problem for Russia is that corruption has become so endemic that the Army has gutted its resource base to enrich a few generals and now it cannot fight a war because literally nothing works as it is intended to.

Putin has created a myth of the great mother nation without checking the facts against the myth. He has ruined Russia's future for decades to come and he will lose this war because his army neither has the resources or will to win it. The defining quality of Putin in his latter years is corruption.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius
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12 minutes ago, CrimsonKing said:

wheat and grain shortages will eventually lead to mass starvation,

That is extremely unlikely.  Out of the major grain crops combined approximately 2,753 million metric tons is produced per year globally.  Total grain production last year in Ukraine was 64.9 million metric tons, the forecast for this year were 74.2 million metric tons.  But all of that Grain is not exported as last year Ukraine exported 45.3 million metric tons with the original forecast for this year being 53.1 million metric tons.

Even at absolute worse with Ukraine producing no grain that would only decrease global grain production by about 2.7%, but producing zero grain is still unlikely for Ukraine.  While a reduction in 2.7% will cause a minor increase it wont lead to wide scale famine globally.  Inside Ukraine there may very well be a famine but that will be due to food not being able to be transported instead of lack of food itself.  

Russia produces approximately 125 million metric tons of grain annually so even if Russia exports zero due to sanctions, also unlikely, it still wouldn't cause a famine.

The problem is a lot of articles are playing games with percentage.  Ukraine does account for approximately 15% of the world's exported wheat for example, but relatively few countries export wheat to begin with and the amount exported is generally small.  Last year Ukraine exported approximately 17 million metric tons of wheat to give an idea of the export size.

Ultimately this war is not a global risk of famine.

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2 minutes ago, Br Cornelius said:

Russia has become the classic example of a resource rich country where corruption has caused a concentration of power and wealth in the hands of a tiny elite. The population at large gets poorer as the elite gets richer all because that elite has a ready cash cow so they do nothing to invest in the development of the country, its population and its industry.

This is usually the pattern in resource rich African countries. Russia has effectively become a developing nation with all the problems that entails.
The problem for Russia is that corruption has become so endemic that the Army has gutted its resource base to enrich a few generals and now it cannot fight a war because literally nothing works as it is intended to.

Putin has created a myth of the great mother nation without checking the facts against the myth. He has ruined Russia's future for decades to come and he will lose this war because his army neither has the resources or will to win it. The defining quality of Putin in his latter years is corruption.

Br Cornelius

Yeah I read not long ago that Russia's average household yearly income was $11,000 US dollars a year!...that sounds almost insane for a country with such vast resources.

In the US a part time,still in high school living with their parents burger cook at McDonald's makes that by themselves yearly.

I'd be stunned if Vlad can't get himself some kind of "victory" out of all this,if the citizens didn't make him a human pinatas like the Italians did Mussolini.

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5 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

That is extremely unlikely.  Out of the major grain crops combined approximately 2,753 million metric tons is produced per year globally.  Total grain production last year in Ukraine was 64.9 million metric tons, the forecast for this year were 74.2 million metric tons.  But all of that Grain is not exported as last year Ukraine exported 45.3 million metric tons with the original forecast for this year being 53.1 million metric tons.

Even at absolute worse with Ukraine producing no grain that would only decrease global grain production by about 2.7%, but producing zero grain is still unlikely for Ukraine.  While a reduction in 2.7% will cause a minor increase it wont lead to wide scale famine globally.  Inside Ukraine there may very well be a famine but that will be due to food not being able to be transported instead of lack of food itself.  

Russia produces approximately 125 million metric tons of grain annually so even if Russia exports zero due to sanctions, also unlikely, it still wouldn't cause a famine.

The problem is a lot of articles are playing games with percentage.  Ukraine does account for approximately 15% of the world's exported wheat for example, but relatively few countries export wheat to begin with and the amount exported is generally small.  Last year Ukraine exported approximately 17 million metric tons of wheat to give an idea of the export size.

Ultimately this war is not a global risk of famine.

Thanks,but yeah I meant moreso regionally...

That said,with the way crooks in high places like to play funny games with numbers,I could easily see it being made to where people just can't afford to buy said products.

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Seems the front for attacking Kyiv is finished.  The Ukranian military is liberating more towns, reports that all of the Russian forces have left Chernobyl.  Ukranian military is saying they have counted over 700 pieces of Russian military equipment heading towards the border of Belarus.  Seems a few Russian units are performing rear guard action to cover the retreat and prevent it from turning into a rout.

In Chernihiv oblast a Russian military column was destroyed.  

As more towns are liberated there are starting to be an increasing amount of accounts of Russian soldiers raping the female population.  The accounts are disturbingly bad, just inhuman brutality directed at the female population of Ukraine.

Lastly in continued war crimes Russia is using incendiary ammunition to target population centers.  Seems the Russians are fond of using thermite incendiary ammunition.

 

Edited by DarkHunter
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Bit unrelated but it seems the Japanese government has released a statement declaring that the entire Kuril island chain is Japanese sovereign territory and is illegally being occupied by Russia.  

Seems Japan is no longer concerned over offending Russia.  This is arguably further evidence that Russian international standing is falling rapidly the longer this war goes on and the more failures the Russian military has.

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ABC World News Tonight also just reported that Russian troops are leaving Chernobyl. Soldiers are showing signs of radiation poisoning.

https://www.wbal.com/article/556421/193/the-latest-relief-for-kyiv-russia-vows-to-scale-back-near-the-capital

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/31/russians-leaving-chernobyl-after-radiation-exposur/

 

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14 hours ago, Grey Area said:

I only have general numbers to go on.  But we’ll use a conflict which you brought up, the Gulf war.  Look at the numbers of coalition casualties, not just in the opening weeks but the entire conflict.

 

That’s a rather blasé statement to make from someone who is military experienced.  If you were in any way in a position of command in your military career, I hope that wasn’t part of your pep-talk.

Look, this all plays into the discipline factor, if you have ‘hyped up’ recon elements rushing off, to the tune of 10000 plus personnel (conservative estimates), there’s something very wrong.  Commanders should be issuing orders which are followed, if they are not being followed, there’s poor discipline.  Then there’s the point that why would the Russian commanders expect the units being used for Recon to be staying with the baggage train?  That makes little sense.

It’s certainly not shockingly good is it?  Look, I have no info one way or the other, I just have media to go on.  I watch a bit of both side and use a VPN as well.  Just because there’s no recent videos does not mean there’s no losses on either side.  News of Ukraine has wound down somewhat now as time goes on.

 

Well, yes.  The problem is, I have very basic maps to go on.  I can’t find anywhere any details on Ukrainian formations, unit types or placement.  So I can make a broad assessment that where the point out Russian positions, there will be significant Ukrainian opposition.  That’s all I can say.  I would suggest it is not Ukrainian military that is necessarily pinned down.  If those forces in the North are required to move south east to Donbas, they are exposed.  And I can only assume that not all of Ukraine’s capacity is used up.  If there is a Russian line around the whole of the Donbas region they will be exposed to the front and the rear if they converge from the North West.  But I dunno what the plan is, and there’s been no movement thus far, last I heard Russian units were digging in, in the North.  If the intention is to tie up Ukrainian units there, that’s one way to do it I suppose, but the Ukrainians only then need to keep the Russians heads down, while they redirect forces elsewhere.  As a Tanker you should understand how important mobility is.

 

They don’t have to worry about air power?  Not sure that’s strictly true.  Air power might be problematic for Ukraine, but it’s not incapable.

Ukraine has already won.  The borders may shift through the force of arms, but the longer political strategy that follows will decide what Ukraine looks like on a map.

 

Just my opinion, take it or leave it.

 

Again I only have media reports to go on, but if only half of those reports are true, discipline among Russian forces is an embarrassment.  Drunk troops, looting civilian homes, reports of soldiers shooting themselves, running over officers.  Troops asking for fuel and food from civilians.

I think this is a very,very good assessment of the situation at the moment. It seems as if it is a replay of Operation Babarossa- it was supposed to be a walk in the park, a massive show of strength against a weaker enemy, a rapid advance into the capital, job done. Just likeBabarossa, it may turn into a Vietnam, a protracted war of attrition. 

Edited by The Silver Shroud
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15 hours ago, Wepwawet said:

what I said, and an unrealistic assumption that the Russians were supposed to be "the best", and failure to meet targets set by MSM, yeah, riiight, are then "evidence" of failure.

I don't think anyone is saying Russian soldier we're expected to be "the best of the best". Just that it was expected by most intelligent agencies that they would do alot better.

Russia has a 4x larger military and has/had a stronger economy and was more developed, invading a by land connected nation. They should of preformed better.

Edited by spartan max2
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Figured posting something a bit more cheerful might be useful instead of just posting about offensive operations and columns being attacked/destroyed.

Ukranian troops entering Nova Basan, Ukranian town liberated earlier today, and being greeted by the locals.

There are translation of what is said in the twitter thread, essentially the locals are happy they are there and are cheering them on.

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Syrian mercenaries deploy to Russia en route to Ukrainian battlefields

''Hundreds of Syrian fighters are en route to join Russian forces in Ukraine, effectively returning the favour to Moscow for helping President Bashar Assad crush rebels in an 11-year civil war, according to two people monitoring the flow of mercenaries.

A first contingent of soldiers has arrived in Russia for military training before heading to Ukraine, according to a Western diplomat and a Damascus-based ally of the Syrian government. It includes at least 300 soldiers from a Syrian army division that has worked closely with Russian officers who went to Syria to support Assad during the war.

And many more could be on the way: Recruiters across Syria have been drawing up lists of thousands of interested candidates to be vetted by the Syrian security services and then passed to the Russians.''

https://bdnews24.com/world/2022/04/01/syrian-mercenaries-deploy-to-russia-en-route-to-ukrainian-battlefields

See also: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/world/middleeast/syrian-mercenaries-ukraine-russia.html

There are also reports that Russian has downed two Ukrainian helicopters using U.S.-made Stinger missiles in Mariupol. They were tasked to evacuate the command staff of the Azov Neo-nazi regiment.

Edited by Occult1
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