Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[Black Red Devil]

6 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

My opinion only, but it does not seem the Russians are holding back their best equipment or troops. Conscripts and reservists called up will be poorly trained and may not be high on patriotic fervor.  Equipment has been neglected and robbed of parts.  Maybe corruption in the Russian government has destroyed  nearly as much equipment as the Ukrainians.

I think this is THE battle Putin must win.  For credibility and purpose.  The Pentagon estimates the Russians have approx. 60,000 troops attacking the Donbas.  They have the seperatists too that were already in control of a third of the region (30,000), plus the battalions that are now free from involvement in Mariupol.  There are probably over 100k Russian troops invading the Donbass. 

If Putin takes this territory he'll create the famous landbridge with Crimea and can gloat about it with the Russian populace.  If he fails or it drags on too long he'll go down because it will impact on morale, make him lose face and bring into it his failure to capture Kiev or any other major city.  The loss of Mariupol (for Ukraine) has given him more fodder to feed in Donbass but the time it took was no great victory and has shown how vulnerable the Russian troops are.  If NATO needs to help with decisive measures this is the moment.

Edited April 20, 2022 by Black Red Devil

[+Nuclear Wessel]

11 minutes ago, and then said:

The longer this chaos continues, the worse the potential for unwanted conflict will become.

There's going to be no peaceful outcome to this. It is a depressing, unfortunate truth. 

[+Nuclear Wessel]

6 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

If Putin takes this territory he'll create the famous landbridge with Crimea and can gloat about it with the Russian populace. 

I reckon Putin is going to essentially Zerg-rush small territories, one-by-one, and conquer Ukraine that way, rather than spreading troops out and having them picked off in smaller pockets.

[+Hammerclaw]

2 hours ago, and then said:

How far do you think we should go to help Ukraine?

Better to thwart Russia in Ukraine than wait to do it in the Baltic States or Poland. As inconceivable as it is, at this point in time, there is only one way to assuage Russian fears of invasion and temper their propensity to resort to violence and historical regression. They must be persuaded to enter the European Union and NATO, as well. Their isolation from the rest of the continent must end and they must be treated, delicately and with all respect due a great people and a historical power. The West has been rather ham-handed and dense in dealing with a people who--after the dissolution of the USSR, were every bit as shattered and their pride, wounded, as was that of the German people after WW1. We know what that led to. 

Edited April 20, 2022 by Hammerclaw

[+Hammerclaw]

2 hours ago, and then said:

Considering both sides are cousins, you'd think Russians would have tried to avoid this chaos.  IMO, most of them WOULD.

It reminds me of the US invasion of Canada, over 200 years ago, with the invaders naively thinking they would be welcomed as liberators. They didn't realize the French would be indifferent and that the bulk of the small Canadian population of English-speakers were Crown loyalists who immigrated to Canada from the US after American independence.

[Black Red Devil]

31 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I reckon Putin is going to essentially Zerg-rush small territories, one-by-one, and conquer Ukraine that way, rather than spreading troops out and having them picked off in smaller pockets.

I don't believe Russia can sustain a long grinding war, moraly, financially or militarily.  I think he's going to stop with the Donbas and try diplomacy.  Then again you could be right.  I doubt it but who knows, maybe his (bad) attempts at Kiev and other major cities were a diversion for Donbas and the land bridge.  Russians are surely paying and will continue paying a severe price for such a victory if this was the case.

[el midgetron]

7 hours ago, thedutchiedutch said:

So I actually googled these names and it seems to me that they are all pro Russia/pro putin. 
Now god forbid, but if my country is ever attacked and slaughtered by whomever aggressive nation without provocation, and my neighbours are idolising this whomever nation, leader or their politics, my neighbours better move real quick out of the country in all silence or they are going down. 
 

Acknowledge the same about yourself. If you ever find yourself on the wrong side of your government, accept that your murder would be justified. 

[ExpandMyMind]

1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

Some stuff is far easier to do that with that others, there are some armored vehicles and artillery being sent that only comes from one country.  The main reason for announcing this stuff is a mix of moral boosting for the average Ukranian soldier, letting them know that Ukraine isnt alone in the fight but the larger part is that supporting Ukraine is popular and announcing the aid is a way for politicians in the west to try and get a popularity boost with no real cost to themselves.  

Strategically announcing or not announcing has overall little to no impact.

It's probably also to encourage the people of other countries watching to get on board with their own country helping. It will definitely help to sway public opinion.

For instance, if Norway and Sweden were to see that those numpties to the south who sound as though they speak with a potato in their mouth are supporting Ukraine, then Norway and Sweden would have to follow suit so as to never allow Denmark rise up from the gutter where they belong.

I'm glad there are no dirty Danes on the forum. @Noteverythingisaconspiracy

[Occult1]

Ukrainian Troops Risk Being Encircled in New Russian Offensive

(Bloomberg) -- Russia has launched what Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hailed as a second phase of the war in Ukraine, and early indications are it could go better for Russia than the first. 

After a ferocious night of artillery bombardment along a 300 mile (482 km) front line in the east, Russian forces took a pocket of territory including the city of Kreminna on Tuesday, according to the Ukrainian regional governor. 

As a result they threaten to encircle an area at the top of the eastern front that, according to one military analyst, holds as much as 40% of Ukrainian troops in the region. 

[...]

“If the Russians can encircle those troops they will try to bleed them dry of ammo and manpower just like in Mariupol,” said Osint Aggregator, the platform of a military analyst who collects so-called open source data on the conflict, in a Twitter thread. “The Russians have re-opened a southern axis in an attempt to start that encirclement.”

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033

 

I don't think people realize how bad the situation looks for Ukraine right now.

Edited April 20, 2022 by Occult1

[Occult1]

4 hours ago, and then said:

Do you support Russia's desire to control all of Ukraine?  Is it okay for them to literally raze Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv, and the rest?  Do you find anything immoral about what the Russians are doing?

I consider Eastern Ukraine already lost. Soon the most experienced Ukrainian soldiers will be encircled and cut off with no possibility of reinforcement which would be a devastating blow for the Ukrainian government. If Western advisors to Zelensky had any sense left, they would tell him to retreat it's forces from Eastern Ukraine now and defend Kyiv instead. Putin has checkmated Zelensky on this one... Only fools continue to play when the game is over.

Edited April 20, 2022 by Occult1

[DarkHunter]

17 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I don't think people realize how bad the situation looks for Ukraine right now.

People understand exactly what's going on, it's just you who is desperately trying to make minor gains from a mass assault sound like a massive breakthrough and imminent surrounding/collapse of the Ukranian defensive lines.

A map from a week ago has the front lines being nearly the same except the Ukranian counter offensives east of Kharkiv and around Lozove werent as pronounced or not existant 

[thedutchiedutch]

51 minutes ago, el midgetron said:

Acknowledge the same about yourself. If you ever find yourself on the wrong side of your government, accept that your murder would be justified. 

I would be long gone. No use staying in a country led by a government I don't support. But that's a different debate all together.
 

[DarkHunter]

For those interested to give an idea of the scale of the man power involved, Russia invaded Ukraine with approximately 200,000 total soldiers and 120 to 128 battalion tactical group.  Not all of the 200,000 soldiers are in a battalion tactical group.

Currently 76 battalion tactical groups are involved in the Donbas offensive.  Around Mariupol there are still 12 battalion tactical groups.  Currently there are believed to be 22 battalion tactical groups still undergoing reorganization.  That leaves 10 to 18 battalion tactical groups for Kherson, the rest of the southern front, and around Kharkiv.

In terms of soldiers, going by different estimates the amount of Russian casualties seem to be around 20% to 25%, some estimates are significantly lower and some significantly higher.  Going with the 20% to 25% that is about 40,000 to 50,000 soldiers killed, wounded, captured or deserted which fits most estimates from America, UK, and NATO.  That leaves Russis with about 150,000 to 160,000 soldiers.  About 80,000 Russian soldiers are involved in the Donbas offensive while between 9,000 to 12,000 are still involved with taking Mariupol.  The remaining approximate 60,000 to 70,000 are in some mix of in Kherson, rest of the southern front, around Kharkiv, or being reorganized inside of Russia.  This isnt factoring in the combined approximate 30,000 soldiers from Donetsk and Lunetsk along with the additional Chechen soldiers which if I remember correctly is between 10,000 and 20,000 but I want to say about 15,000 but I might be wrong.

Essentially it's not looking good for Russia in terms of man power.  These frontlines are hundreds of kilometers long and they are fighting against well dug in opponents numbering in the tens of thousands at each front.  Mariupol only had approximately 3,500 defenders and despite being surrounded and outnumbered 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 they are still holding out and badly mawling the Russians to give an idea of how well the Ukranians fight defensively.

Edited April 20, 2022 by DarkHunter

[Occult1]

 

Russia deploys up to 20,000 mercenaries in battle for Ukraine’s Donbas region

Russia has deployed up to 20,000 mercenaries from Syria, Libya and elsewhere in its new offensive in Ukraine’s Donbas region, sent into battle with no heavy equipment or armoured vehicles, according to a European official.

The official said the estimates of mercenary involvement on the ground in eastern Ukraine range from 10,000 to 20,000 and that it was hard to break down that figure between Syrians, Libyans and other fighters recruited by the Russian mercenary company, the Wagner Group.

“What I can tell you is that we did see some transfer from these areas, Syria and Libya, to the eastern Donbas region, and these guys are mainly used as a mass against the Ukrainian resistance,” the official said. “It’s infantry. They don’t have any heavy equipment or vehicles.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/19/russia-deployed-20000-mercenaries-ukraine-donbas-region

Edited April 20, 2022 by Occult1

[Setton]

3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

If Western advisors to Zelensky had any sense left, they would tell him to retreat it's forces from Eastern Ukraine now and defend Kyiv instead. Putin has checkmated Zelensky on this one... Only fools continue to play when the game is over.

Why would they do that when your latest claim is that this was Russia's plan all along and they never intended to take Kyiv?

[godnodog]

4 hours ago, Occult1 said:

. 

[...]

“If the Russians can encircle those troops they will try to bleed them dry of ammo and manpower just like in Mariupol,” said Osint Aggregator, the platform of a military analyst who collects so-called open source data on the conflict, in a Twitter thread. “The Russians have re-opened a southern axis in an attempt to start that encirclement.”

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033

 

I don't think people realize how bad the situation looks for Ukraine right now.

You're right it just looks even worse for Russia, if things are to go down as they are/were in  Mariupol then Russia is in even deeper trouble as they'll be focused in more concentrated areas and Ukraine will have also better odds of inflicting far bigger losses to russian, thought Ukrainian losses obviously will also be big.

[AlonaLameDeer]

8 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

I don't believe Russia can sustain a long grinding war, moraly, financially or militarily.  I think he's going to stop with the Donbas and try diplomacy.  Then again you could be right.  I doubt it but who knows, maybe his (bad) attempts at Kiev and other major cities were a diversion for Donbas and the land bridge.  Russians are surely paying and will continue paying a severe price for such a victory if this was the case.

The attempt at Kyiv might have been a division but if it was it was a bad one.
Lossing a lot of men, and then taking long enough to redeploy your troops that your enemy can likewise redeploy their troops, not a great idea.

[AlonaLameDeer]

7 hours ago, Occult1 said:

I consider Eastern Ukraine already lost. Soon the most experienced Ukrainian soldiers will be encircled and cut off with no possibility of reinforcement which would be a devastating blow for the Ukrainian government. If Western advisors to Zelensky had any sense left, they would tell him to retreat it's forces from Eastern Ukraine now and defend Kyiv instead. Putin has checkmated Zelensky on this one... Only fools continue to play when the game is over.

Just like Kyiv was going to fall in a few days?

[AlonaLameDeer]

8 hours ago, el midgetron said:

Acknowledge the same about yourself. If you ever find yourself on the wrong side of your government, accept that your murder would be justified. 

If I was supporting a hostile power that clearly wanted the destruction of my democratically elected government?
I would kind of hope so ya....

[spartan max2]

8 hours ago, el midgetron said:

Acknowledge the same about yourself. If you ever find yourself on the wrong side of your government, accept that your murder would be justified. 

It's a complicated moral question for democracies when at war. 

If we look at the US in the past with the revolution war, Abraham Lincoln, Japanese prison camps, and the red scare. We tend to do the same thing when at war.

Should democracies allow politicians who support your nation being invaded and government overthrown? 

The whole, should democracies support the right of movement whoms goal is to overthrow democracy.Where is the line, should there be a line? Complicated questions.

 

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by spartan max2

[Occult1]

7 hours ago, Setton said:

Why would they do that when your latest claim is that this was Russia's plan all along and they never intended to take Kyiv?

The country will be sliced in two. There is just no way to avoid it.  Ukrainian forces should retreat to safer positions and defend the parts that they can keep.

Edited April 20, 2022 by Occult1

[jmccr8]

4 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

It's a complicated moral question for democracies when at war. 

If we look at the US in the past with the revolution war, Abraham Lincoln, Japanese prison camps, and the red scare. We tend to do the same thing when at war.

Should democracies allow politicians who support your nation being invaded and government overthrown? 

The whole, should democracies support the right of movement whoms goal is to overthrow democracy.Where is the line, should there be a line? Complicated questions.

 

 

Hi Spartan

During WW2 there was a Nazi party allowed to function in the US  and recruit members.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_American_Bund#:~:text=The German American Bund%2C or,FoNG%2C FDND in German).

n 1939, a New York tax investigation determined that Kuhn had embezzled $14,000 from the Bund (equivalent to $273,000 in 2021). The Bund did not seek to have Kuhn prosecuted, operating on the principle (Führerprinzip) that the leader had absolute power. However, New York City's district attorney prosecuted him in an attempt to cripple the Bund. On December 5, 1939, Kuhn was sentenced to two and a half to five years in prison for tax evasion and embezzlement.^[32]

New Bund leaders replaced Kuhn, most notably Gerhard Kunze, but only for brief periods. A year after the outbreak of World War II, Congress enacted a peacetime military draft in September 1940. The Bund counseled members of draft age to evade conscription, a criminal offense punishable by up to five years in jail and a $10,000 fine. Gerhard Kunze fled to Mexico in November 1941.^[13]

U.S. Congressman Martin Dies (D-Texas) and his House Committee on Un-American Activities were active in denying any Nazi-sympathetic organization the ability to operate freely during World War II. In the last week of December 1942, led by journalist Dorothy Thompson, fifty leading German-Americans (including baseball icon Babe Ruth) signed a "Christmas Declaration by men and women of German ancestry" condemning Nazism, which appeared in ten major American daily newspapers.

While Kuhn was in prison, his citizenship was canceled on June 1, 1943. Upon his release after 43 months in state prison, Kuhn was re-arrested on June 21, 1943, as an enemy alien and interned by the federal government at a camp in Crystal City, Texas. After the war, Kuhn was interned at Ellis Island and deported to Germany on September 15, 1945.^[33] He died on December 14, 1951, in Munich, Germany.^[34]

^{https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2017/06/american-nazis-in-the-1930sthe-german-american-bund/529185}

[spartan max2]

7 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Spartan

During WW2 there was a Nazi party allowed to function in the US  and recruit members.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_American_Bund#:~:text=The German American Bund%2C or,FoNG%2C FDND in German).

n 1939, a New York tax investigation determined that Kuhn had embezzled $14,000 from the Bund (equivalent to $273,000 in 2021). The Bund did not seek to have Kuhn prosecuted, operating on the principle (Führerprinzip) that the leader had absolute power. However, New York City's district attorney prosecuted him in an attempt to cripple the Bund. On December 5, 1939, Kuhn was sentenced to two and a half to five years in prison for tax evasion and embezzlement.^[32]

New Bund leaders replaced Kuhn, most notably Gerhard Kunze, but only for brief periods. A year after the outbreak of World War II, Congress enacted a peacetime military draft in September 1940. The Bund counseled members of draft age to evade conscription, a criminal offense punishable by up to five years in jail and a $10,000 fine. Gerhard Kunze fled to Mexico in November 1941.^[13]

U.S. Congressman Martin Dies (D-Texas) and his House Committee on Un-American Activities were active in denying any Nazi-sympathetic organization the ability to operate freely during World War II. In the last week of December 1942, led by journalist Dorothy Thompson, fifty leading German-Americans (including baseball icon Babe Ruth) signed a "Christmas Declaration by men and women of German ancestry" condemning Nazism, which appeared in ten major American daily newspapers.

While Kuhn was in prison, his citizenship was canceled on June 1, 1943. Upon his release after 43 months in state prison, Kuhn was re-arrested on June 21, 1943, as an enemy alien and interned by the federal government at a camp in Crystal City, Texas. After the war, Kuhn was interned at Ellis Island and deported to Germany on September 15, 1945.^[33] He died on December 14, 1951, in Munich, Germany.^[34]

^{https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2017/06/american-nazis-in-the-1930sthe-german-american-bund/529185}

That's interesting history. Thanks for the info 

[jmccr8]

1 minute ago, spartan max2 said:

That's interesting history. Thanks for the info 

Hi Spartan

An interesting aside but the nazi group used mafia as recruiters and have wondered because the Catholic church helped some nazis escape to other countries after the war.

[Occult1]

Ukraine war: Mariupol commander makes 'last' plea for help

A Ukrainian marine commander in Mariupol has made what he described as his troops' "last address to the world" as they try to resist overwhelming Russian forces in the city.

They were outnumbered and running out of supplies, Major Serhiy Volyna said.

A Russian deadline for the surrender of Ukrainian forces has passed with no sign that the troops have complied.

[...]

It is unclear how many Ukrainian troops remain in the city, but in a video message sent to the BBC, Maj Volyna, said around 500 injured troops were being cared for at the steel plant.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61159812

 

Should the U.S./NATO undertake a rescue operation in Mariupol?

Edited April 20, 2022 by Occult1