Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[+and-then]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

Since it came from Russia, we should not believe it. 

I agree, but these days, WHO CAN we trust?  One thing is certain, Russian citizens under 40 now have a chance to see a Russia that their parents and grandparents knew well.  I hope they have enough integrity and courage to TAKE their freedom back from the ruthless leadership.  If they won't then they will pay the price, as will their children and grandchildren.

[Grey Area]

2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

A neutral country doesn't participate in any shape or form in armed conflicts and are not a threat to their neighbors.

You have just effectively described Ukraine.

Ukraine was and is politically unaligned until Russia chose its current course of action.

[Occult1]

11 minutes ago, Grey Area said:

You have just effectively described Ukraine.

Ukraine was and is politically unaligned until Russia chose its current course of action.

In 2014 Ukraine, great power gamesmanship, righteous anger at a corrupt status quo, and opportunistic far-right extremists toppled the government in the U.S.-backed Maidan Revolution. Today’s crisis in Ukraine can’t be understood without understanding Maidan. The Ukrainian government, who fell under U.S./NATO control (look how much money they poured into funding their military since),  was openly hostile to Russia from then on.

 

It's not Russia that's pushed Ukraine to the brink of war

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/30/russia-ukraine-war-kiev-conflict

Edited April 25, 2022 by Occult1

[Essan]

3 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

In 2014 Ukraine, great power gamesmanship, righteous anger at a corrupt status quo, and opportunistic far-right extremists toppled the government in the Maidan Revolution. Today’s crisis in Ukraine can’t be understood without understanding Maidan. The Ukrainian government, who fell under U.S./NATO control (look how much money they poured into funding their military since),  was openly hostile to Russia from then on.

Well, to be fair, if so, they were very much justified!

Putin has demanded that Sweden and Finland do not join NATO.   The only reason they are about to join NATO is because of Putin.   

NATO doesn't need to destroy Russia,  Putin has done it himself.  Single handed.  With no help at all.  He may well go down in history as the very worst national leader of all time.

[Essan]

Unless, of course, Putin is working for the CIA?    

 

[+razman]

2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Ukraine says Russia is targeting railways to cut arms supply routes

Ukraine’s military command said on Monday that Russia was trying to bomb Ukraine’s rail infrastructure in order to disrupt arms supplies from foreign countries.

“They are trying to destroy the supply routes of military-technical assistance from partner states. To do this, they focus strikes on railway junctions,” the armed forces command wrote in a post on Facebook.

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/ukraine-says-russia-is-targeting-railways-to-cut-arms-supply-routes

 

I don't think people realize just how damaging these strikes are to Ukraine's military capabilities. Russia is targeting railways and fuel facilities deep in Ukraine. It's going to be very difficult to keep supplying the Ukrainian forces with weapons and ammunitions if there is no way to get them across the country to eastern Ukraine on the battlefield.

No worries , they'll find a way.

[+Nuclear Wessel]

1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

UK now estimating at minimum 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine.  Essentially Russia has in two months the same level of casualties the USSR required 9 years and 1 month to reach in Afghanistan.

Realistically Russia probably has between 45,000 and 60,000 total casualties.

Veering off from this, what do you think is the likelihood that Russia will eventually resort to nuclear weapons, especially if they keep suffering from these extreme losses? 

[spartan max2]

27 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

In 2014 Ukraine, great power gamesmanship, righteous anger at a corrupt status quo, and opportunistic far-right extremists toppled the government in the U.S.-backed Maidan Revolution. Today’s crisis in Ukraine can’t be understood without understanding Maidan. The Ukrainian government, who fell under U.S./NATO control (look how much money they poured into funding their military since),  was openly hostile to Russia from then on.

 

It's not Russia that's pushed Ukraine to the brink of war

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/30/russia-ukraine-war-kiev-conflict

Lol .

Ukraine such a threat in 2014 that Russia didn't invade until 2022 - 8 years later.

What a joke.

[Occult1]

15 minutes ago, razman said:

No worries , they'll find a way.

They have to be delivered either by land, air or sea.

Since Russia controls the air and are blockading the Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea, there isn't a lot of options left.

You have to go through land and Russia is now targeting the railway infrastructure, making the process a lot more complicated.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Occult1

[Electric Scooter]

2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Ukraine downed another Russian Su-34 in Kharkiv oblast today.  For Russia having complete air superiority over Ukraine they are losing a surprising losing about a plane a day now in eastern Ukraine.

To give some perspective in the first gulf war the coalition lost 75 aircraft, 52 jets and 23 helicopters.  Of those 75 losses only 44 were lost in combat, 39 jets and 5 helicopters.  During the second Iraq war between 2003 and 2010 there were 162 aircraft lost, 138 helicopters and 24 jets.  Of those losses only 57 were lost in combat, 52 helicopters of which 4 were destroyed on the ground and 5 jets of which 2 were due to friendly fire.

Depending on the source Russia has lost at minimum 61 aircraft to combat losses, 24 being jets and 37 being helicopters.  These are just picture/video confirmed combat losses.  Ukraine is reporting Russian air combat losses between 2 to 3 times greater it seems on average.

Given that total air losses are about 3 times the amount of combat losses Russia can be estimated at having lost between 200 and 600 total aircraft so far.  

These are UK claims today:

About 15,000 Russian troops killed since start of invasion, says UK

Speaking to MPs earlier this afternoon, the UK’s defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said approximately 15,000 Russian personnel have been killed since the start of the war in Ukraine on 24 February.

Wallace said:

It is our assessment that approximately 15,000 Russian personnel have been killed during their offensive.

Alongside the death toll are the equipment losses and in total a number of sources suggest that to date over 2,000 armoured vehicles have been destroyed or captured.

This includes at least 530 tanks, 530 armoured personnel carriers and 560 infantry fighting vehicles.

Russia has also lost over 60 helicopters and fighter jets, Wallace added.

The offensive that was supposed to take a maximum of a week has now taken weeks

 

I dont understand where the claim of 200 to 600 aircraft comes from. I doubt Ukraine even had the SAM missiles at the start of the war for that before Russia hit their air assets in the 1st wave.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Cookie Monster

[Occult1]

11 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

Lol .

Ukraine such a threat in 2014 that Russia didn't invade until 2022 - 8 years later.

What a joke.

You have to understand the Minsk agreements and why they failed to bring peace to get a better picture.

[Occult1]

14 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

These are UK claims today:

About 15,000 Russian troops killed since start of invasion, says UK

Speaking to MPs earlier this afternoon, the UK’s defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said approximately 15,000 Russian personnel have been killed since the start of the war in Ukraine on 24 February.

Wallace said:

It is our assessment that approximately 15,000 Russian personnel have been killed during their offensive.

Alongside the death toll are the equipment losses and in total a number of sources suggest that to date over 2,000 armoured vehicles have been destroyed or captured.

This includes at least 530 tanks, 530 armoured personnel carriers and 560 infantry fighting vehicles.

Russia has also lost over 60 helicopters and fighter jets, Wallace added.

The offensive that was supposed to take a maximum of a week has now taken weeks

 

I dont understand where the claim of 200 to 600 aircraft comes from. I doubt Ukraine even had the SAM missiles at the start of the war for that before Russia hit their air assets in the 1st wave.

I wonder how they get their numbers. Do they have officers on the ground? Or are they just accepting everything the Ukrainian General Staff tell them ?

Edited April 25, 2022 by Occult1

[DarkHunter]

6 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Veering off from this, what do you think is the likelihood that Russia will eventually resort to nuclear weapons, especially if they keep suffering from these extreme losses? 

I think there is ultimately a good chance of Russisa using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, probably just tactical level and not strategic.

I dont think Russia will use them as a way to turn the tide of the war but instead as a way to back out of the war while saving face.

If Russia just starts using nuclear weapons that is an admission of the failure of the Russian military to achieve its goals.  I have no proof of this what so ever and this is purely opinion and speculation.  I wouldnt be surprised if on May 9 there isnt a large scale terror attack in Russia during the victory day parade.  Probably in Moscow but could happen in any major city and would use chemical weapons.  Whole thing would ne a false flag attack by Russia to give them a pretense to use nuclear weapons and shock the world into ending the war.  That is just purely speculation on my part with no proof or evidence backing it.

[DarkHunter]

16 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

I dont understand where the claim of 200 to 600 aircraft comes from. I doubt Ukraine even had the SAM missiles at the start of the war for that before Russia hit their air assets in the 1st wave.

Ukraine has the second largest air defense network in Europe after Russia.  When Russia invaded they had 100 active S-300 batteries numbering about 300 launchers with a further 150 batteries still in storage and now being brought online as quickly as Ukraine can manage.  For close range anti-air units combined the number is well over a thousand individual units.  Russia still hasnt managed to significantly degrade Ukraine's air defense let alone destroying it on the first wave of attacks.  

As for the 200 to 600 number.  There are pictures and videos of Russis having lost approximately 60 aircraft in Ukraine due to Ukranian anti-air defenses already.  The Ukranian government claims the number of Russian aircraft shot down is approximately 200.  Jets and helicopters are very complex and relatively delicate machines.  In general due to the stresses put on the aircraft and the crews, both pilots and maintenance crews, during military operations an airforce will general lose about twice the amount of aircraft lost due to being shot just due to human error and parts breaking.  

Combining all of that together for a lower limit of probable lost aircraft as approximately 60 have been shot down it can be assumed approximately 120 have been lost to attrition which puts total loss at 180 which I rounded to 200 cause why not.  For the upper limit it's the same thing but using Ukraine's claim of shooting down approximately 200 aircraft so far to get the upper limit of 600.

[Electric Scooter]

30 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I wonder how they get their numbers. Do they have officers on the ground? Or are they just accepting everything the Ukrainian General Staff tell them ?

Yes, its not independent and due to the ridiculous level of propaganda I`m tempted to say its BS.

But this BS is far less that the claims of the guy I quoted.

[DarkHunter]

44 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

They have to be delivered either by land, air or sea.

Since Russia controls the air and are blockading the Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea, there isn't a lot of options left.

You have to go through land and Russia is now targeting the railway infrastructure, making the process a lot more complicated.

Russia doesnt have air superiority to begin with.  A large percentage of the military assistance Ukraine is getting is flown in by cargo aircraft, every day there are multiple cargo planes landing at Ukranian airports carrying weapons, ammunition, vehicles, and various other forms of military assistance.

Only countries using ground to supply Ukraine are the countries that border Ukraine and while they do use trains they seem to prefer using trucks.  Not too long ago there was videos of Polish T-72 tanks loaded up on flatbed trucks heading over the Polish-Ukranian border.

[Myles]

2 hours ago, and then said:

I agree, but these days, WHO CAN we trust?  One thing is certain, Russian citizens under 40 now have a chance to see a Russia that their parents and grandparents knew well.  I hope they have enough integrity and courage to TAKE their freedom back from the ruthless leadership.  If they won't then they will pay the price, as will their children and grandchildren.

My comment was a bit in jest as many on here claim anything positive for Russia is propaganda not to be believed (I don't really disagree with that way of thinking).

[Occult1]

42 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Russia doesnt have air superiority to begin with.  A large percentage of the military assistance Ukraine is getting is flown in by cargo aircraft, every day there are multiple cargo planes landing at Ukranian airports carrying weapons, ammunition, vehicles, and various other forms of military assistance.

The problem is what happens when those weapons arrive on Ukrainian soil from Poland. Since Russia maintain air superiority over the Ukrainian skies, this prevents Ukraine from transporting the supplies by air and now railways are no longer a viable option. As a result, Ukrainians are forced to use vehicle convoys to travel from the western border to the next location in the supply chain. Russian air capabilities also prevents deploying one large convoy to transport military resupply because Russian attack helicopters or fighter jets could easily destroy such a large target.  How many of those weapons truly are gonna make it intact to the eastern fronts not even the U.S. can tell for certain.

 

What happens to weapons sent to Ukraine? The US doesn't really know

''Trucks loaded with pallets of arms provided by the Defense Department are picked up by Ukrainian armed forces -- primarily in Poland -- and then driven into Ukraine, Kirby said, "then it's up to the Ukrainians to determine where they go and how they're allocated inside their country."

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics/us-weapons-ukraine-intelligence/index.html

Edited April 25, 2022 by Occult1

[+and-then]

3 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

I wouldnt be surprised if on May 9 there isnt a large scale terror attack in Russia during the victory day parade.  Probably in Moscow but could happen in any major city and would use chemical weapons

They DO love their maskirovka.  Occasionally, it's even clever.  It would be one HELL of a gamble, though.  They are certainly experienced in killing their own if it advances the cause du jour, also.  The little I've read about the whole concept they expressed to justify first use to a nuke, it was about paralyzing the enemy long enough to complete a mission, freeze it in place and if necessary, negotiate afterwards.

Imagine that day.  Then try to imagine what the world would be like on all the ones that follow. 

[jmccr8]

5 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Veering off from this, what do you think is the likelihood that Russia will eventually resort to nuclear weapons, especially if they keep suffering from these extreme losses? 

Hi Nuke

Not sure and with the fires during the last week in Russia may be an indicator of more strikes being made that will be disruptive on their efforts in the Ukraine. If there are enough incidents that would likely bring martial law and curfews that will upset the civilian population and consume military personal, neve mind trying to explain who or how this happened in their borders. They have just lost crucial fuel supplies and is likely why they are now targeting transport in the Ukraine to slow down their ability to strike while they try and recoup/organize fuel for their forces in the Ukraine.

 

Edited April 26, 2022 by jmccr8

[Occult1]

Russia says Western weapons in Ukraine legitimate targets for Russian military

April 26 (Reuters) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West on Monday not to underestimate the elevated risks of nuclear conflict over Ukraine and said he viewed NATO as being "in essence" engaged in a proxy war with Russia by supplying Kyiv with weaponry.

Lavrov, in a wide-ranging interview broadcast on state television, also said that the core of any agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine would depend largely on the military situation on the ground.''

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-western-weapons-ukraine-legitimate-targets-russian-military-2022-04-25/

 

Seems Russia is now openly attacking Western weapons shipments in Ukraine. Will NATO admit they are engaged in a proxy war?

Edited April 26, 2022 by Occult1

[+razman]

40 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Russia says Western weapons in Ukraine legitimate targets for Russian military

April 26 (Reuters) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West on Monday not to underestimate the elevated risks of nuclear conflict over Ukraine and said he viewed NATO as being "in essence" engaged in a proxy war with Russia by supplying Kyiv with weaponry.

Lavrov, in a wide-ranging interview broadcast on state television, also said that the core of any agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine would depend largely on the military situation on the ground.''

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-western-weapons-ukraine-legitimate-targets-russian-military-2022-04-25/

 

Seems Russia is now openly attacking Western weapons shipments in Ukraine. Will NATO admit they are engaged in a proxy war?

Boy they really like to play that nuclear threat card though , don't they?

[Gromdor]

11 minutes ago, razman said:

Boy they really like to play that nuclear threat card though , don't they?

Maybe we should just nuke them first and get it over with?

[+and-then]

20 minutes ago, razman said:

Boy they really like to play that nuclear threat card though , don't they?

Against NATO it's the only chance they'd have and they know it.  A NATO summit needs to be called RIGHT NOW so leaders can speak, face to face, and really discuss the realities that they COULD face a Russian attack on a member nation AND how to make it as clear as possible that WMD use against NATO would be guaranteed to cause a swift retaliation in kind.  

[Occult1]

29 minutes ago, razman said:

Boy they really like to play that nuclear threat card though , don't they?

Some folks in D.C. have made their mission to ''weaken'' Russia. Very dangerous game, I think.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/politics/biden-administration-russia-strategy/index.html

 

It seems to me there is only so much ''weakening'' a world power will tolerate before deciding it's time to press that red button. It's a very real threat.