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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6
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Just now, Occult1 said:

Some folks in D.C. have made their mission to ''weaken'' Russia. Very dangerous game, I think.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/politics/biden-administration-russia-strategy/index.html

 

It seems to me there is only so much ''weakening'' a world power will tolerate before deciding it's time to press that red button. It's a very real threat.

Yea i dont really agree with it , a lot of suffering and life's lost , it's amazing how a lot of govt's and regimes can care so little about peoples lives . 

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21 minutes ago, and then said:

Against NATO it's the only chance they'd have and they know it.  A NATO summit needs to be called RIGHT NOW so leaders can speak, face to face, and really discuss the realities that they COULD face a Russian attack on a member nation AND how to make it as clear as possible that WMD use against NATO would be guaranteed to cause a swift retaliation in kind.  

This will already have happened, though not in person.

I’d bet that Biden, Johnson and Macron are receiving daily briefings on automatic retaliations in the event of a different levels of Russian attacks. And I’d bet that the nukes are ready to fly in a heartbeat.

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21 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

This will already have happened, though not in person.

I’d bet that Biden, Johnson and Macron are receiving daily briefings on automatic retaliations in the event of a different levels of Russian attacks. And I’d bet that the nukes are ready to fly in a heartbeat.

That may be true but remember, this is a card game where bluffing is encouraged.  The reality is that no one can really be sure what the response would be and I'd hope they'd make a public statement so that it's as clear as possible.  Putin has created a policy of limited use of low yield nukes and I have no doubt he'd use them.  

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19 minutes ago, and then said:

That may be true but remember, this is a card game where bluffing is encouraged.  The reality is that no one can really be sure what the response would be and I'd hope they'd make a public statement so that it's as clear as possible.  Putin has created a policy of limited use of low yield nukes and I have no doubt he'd use them.  

The use of tactical nukes on the battlefield makes keeping large numbers of older tanks and infantry fighting vehicles a lot more sensible. Russia goes with numbers, not quality.

There is also a lot of big talk about retaliation in a nuclear war. The fact remains that there are serious doubts if a country will sacrifice itself to save another people.

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1 hour ago, Cookie Monster said:

The use of tactical nukes on the battlefield makes keeping large numbers of older tanks and infantry fighting vehicles a lot more sensible. Russia goes with numbers, not quality.

There is also a lot of big talk about retaliation in a nuclear war. The fact remains that there are serious doubts if a country will sacrifice itself to save another people.

Would the western world turn the other way if Russia nuked a European country?  They didn't turn the other way in 1940, I doubt they'd do it this time, even with nukes involved. 

Let's not forget the men near the man pushing the button in Russia have a life and families too.  They would be very well aware they would have to have their bags ready to run when the first nuke strikes the Ukraine.  Is that something they would prefer to avoid by taking down the loony that started this?  By now they've probably realised that nor the Ukraine nor NATO are going to accept Russia's invasion or territorial claims.  So, already now, it may just be a choice between taking down the loony or getting ready to pack bags and run (for a while at least).

Edited by Black Red Devil
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1 hour ago, Cookie Monster said:

The use of tactical nukes on the battlefield makes keeping large numbers of older tanks and infantry fighting vehicles a lot more sensible. Russia goes with numbers, not quality.

There is also a lot of big talk about retaliation in a nuclear war. The fact remains that there are serious doubts if a country will sacrifice itself to save another people.

Hi Cookie

Not likely they will target a military site over high yield civilian population loss loss given their attested intention to abduct and kill non combatants. If they do there will be consequences and amendments to current nuke agreements and use.

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2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

It seems to me there is only so much ''weakening'' a world power will tolerate before deciding it's time to press that red button. It's a very real threat.

Russia does not have to grow weak, it is their own choice.  The West is facing pressure from other sources besides Russia, like the world economy, so they are not going to have a lot of energy to coddle Putin anymore.

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2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Some folks in D.C. have made their mission to ''weaken'' Russia. Very dangerous game, I think.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/politics/biden-administration-russia-strategy/index.html

 

It seems to me there is only so much ''weakening'' a world power will tolerate before deciding it's time to press that red button. It's a very real threat.

I reckon Saru is paying you to post your pro Putin stuff to enhance contributions.  :P  After all, what's the alternative, everyone agreeing with 'likes' against single posts against Putin?  You're just too good to be true, nobody has a chance to vent their feelings towards Putin so you take on that punching bag role that satisfies everyone's needs.   

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3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Some folks in D.C. have made their mission to ''weaken'' Russia. Very dangerous game, I think.

Hi Occult

Russia and China have spent as much resources in the west as well as each on other doing the same thing. Historic traditions of seduce and destroy or assimilate through marriage(bedfellows) not to mention other nations is obvious and so are the reasons for doing so.

Edited by jmccr8
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6 hours ago, and then said:

.

Imagine that day.  Then try to imagine what the world would be like on all the ones that follow. :no:

The next day the whole of the russian government would be put on the terrorist list, I highly doubt that even China would back them.

Russia would likely be expelled from all international organizations including UN, it's veto power and permanent seat forever lost.

 

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5 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Seems Russia is now openly attacking Western weapons shipments in Ukraine. Will NATO admit they are engaged in a proxy war?

Russian army and intelligence services were so incompetent in the begining that it showed that the best course of action was to actually provide military supplies to Ukraine, aka proxy war, to prevent a direct war with Russia. Maybe you missed all the public Nato meetings. What's there to admit?

 

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NATO may well be in a proxy war with Russia - but not through their choosing.   And the war can end any day Putin wants it to.   

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It's not a proxy war, because the Russian's have no proxy--although they've been trying to persuade someone, anyone, to be theirs. It's just them against Ukrainians and the West is only "The Arsenal of Democracy" as it were, noncombatants, all.:innocent:

Edited by Hammerclaw
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Readiness condition Exercise term Description Readiness
DEFCON 1 COCKED PISTOL Nuclear war is imminent or has already begun Maximum readiness. Immediate response.
DEFCON 2 FAST PACE Next step to nuclear war Armed forces ready to deploy and engage in less than six hours
DEFCON 3 ROUND HOUSE Increase in force readiness above that required for normal readiness Air Force ready to mobilize in 15 minutes
DEFCON 4 DOUBLE TAKE Increased intelligence watch and strengthened security measures Above normal readiness
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT Lowest state of readiness Normal readiness

History

We've never been at Defcon 1--we're still here. The last time we we're at Defcon 2 was in '91, at the start of the Gulf War. The launch of a nuclear weapon triggers Defcon 1 and everything's pretty much automatic, after that. That's why M.A.D. has been so frighteningly effective at keeping the nuclear peace. 

Edited by Hammerclaw
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31 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

That's why M.A.D. has been so frighteningly effective at keeping the nuclear peace

Problem is MAD isnt the only nuclear strategy.  America also developed NUTS (Nuclear Utilization Target Selection).  In a drastically over simplified comparison MAD assumes a nuclear war cant be won while NUTS assumes it could be winnable.

For a still over simplified comparison MAD assumes one nuclear launch will cause a cascade of everyone launching everything they got.  MAD is essentially based in Game theory and is logically sound. 

NUTS differs from MAD in a few key areas, one is that it doesnt assume that one nuclear launch automatically causes everyone to launch what they got.  NUTS has further steps of escalation added in for nuclear weapon usage before going to full scale strategic nuclear weapon usage with each step having it's own method to stop further escalation.  Another key way that NUTS differs from MAD is that it assumes a good enough nuclear defense and/or a good enough nuclear first strike ability can make a full nuclear war winnable.

The USSR leadership was completely aware of NUTS but thought it was completely and utterly insane so never really bothered to implement it and instead stayed to a true MAD policy.  America though embraced both MAD and NUTS which is why America started the Star Wars project, to develop a good enough nuclear shield to protect enough of America, and the development of submarine launched strategic nuclear missiles, which besides from spreading out America's nuclear arsenal was also meant to give America a first strike ability that wouldnt give the USSR enough time to retaliate with their own nuclear weapons.

Interestingly this is also a large part but not only part why the development of nuclear weapons between USSR and America diverged.  Essentially USSR generally went with creating large missiles with larger and more powerful warheads which could better destroy cities, a counter value strategy that MAD demands.  Meanwhile American nuclear weapons became far more accurate and had smaller warheads which made the missiles smaller and allowed for more to be carried per unit.  These more accurate missiles were critical for ensuring nuclear missile silos and military/communication centers would be guaranteed destroyed, a counter force strategy that NUTS demands.  

Ultimately the end result of America adopting NUTS along with MAD was that it forced the USSR to develop nuclear capabilities they didnt particularly want like land mobile nuclear missiles and their own submarine launched nuclear missiles.  Both cost a lot of money and resources the USSR government would of preferred to put elsewhere as conventional nuclear ballistic missiles was all the USSR needed for MAD to work.

The issue today is that Russia realized that America using both MAD and NUTS while Russia only useing MAD puts them at a severe disadvantage and they are now starting to develop their own NUTS doctrine, hence the change in Russian nuclear policy and the development of weapons to allow a first strike ability.

MAD kept the peace but NUTS was an attempt to cheat and come out on top and indirectly it kind of worked.  Bit off topic but still interesting and gives a better idea of what Russia is doing with their nuclear weapon policy changes and how they may or may not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

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In a rather unexpected move stuff has started heating up in Transnistria and by extension Moldova.  Yesterday two RPGs were fired at I want to say a government building in Transnistria but it might of been a police station.  Not sure what time this exactly occured, hours after the RPG attack after night fell, but someone blew up two communication antennas that were broadcasting Russian propaganda/Russian state media in Transnistria and the general region.  Moldova seems to be now getting a bit jumpy.  The amount if Russian troops and the quality of their training and equipment means they will never be able to open up another front and invade Ukraine.

Unconfirmed but there is some talk online, got to stress just rumors I picked up, that Moldova is playing a role in these unexpected attacks and might be looking to see how or even if Russian responds to see if they could reclaim Transnistria militarily.

Edited by DarkHunter
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Typical day over Europe since the invasion. All planes on image are military. You have some F-15's and Eurofighters over England getting in some training.

All the planes that I have selected are either aerial refueling tankers or spook planes. Where there are refueling planes there are fighters that are not transponding.

 

On station.jpg

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Some good news. A Russian soldier who was boasting about all the Ukrainians he was going to rape, and also getting a blessing from his girlfriend to do so, has been captured by Ukrainian forces.

 

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Looks like Ukraine are hitting Russia back inside Russia itself. Other than those mentioned below, there have been loads of different fires every day. Almost all hitting obvious key targets that will hamper the Russian war machine.

 

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13 hours ago, and then said:

WMD use against NATO would be guaranteed to cause a swift retaliation in kind.  

Putin is likely not ignorant to that fact. If the following video's translation is to be believed, he fully acknowledges that in a nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia, there will be no winners.

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13 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Some folks in D.C. have made their mission to ''weaken'' Russia. Very dangerous game, I think.

Well, we finally agree on something!  It IS dangerous to openly announce your intentions against someone who is as cold blooded as Putin.  Mind you, most people leading countries these days are as cold blooded but few are willing to openly expose it.  There is a growing consensus that Putin is ill and they think it is affecting his decision making.  Publicly announcing a strategy of arming his enemy so as to do the maximum amount of damage to Russia, only gives him more support at home.

Seems to me, the best way to push him into feeling he has to "win" as quickly as possible, is to make him aware that plans are being made to slowly bleed his forces.  He could light off a couple of 1-5KT devices on cities that are vital to NATO resupply efforts, and in the chaos and confusion following that, surge his forces to grab as much territory as possible before halting and offering to negotiate in earnest.

The day we see another one of those abominations detonated, will be the beginning of the global end-game, imo.

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14 hours ago, Gromdor said:

Maybe we should just nuke them first and get it over with?

What else they got, threaten to invade somebody?:lol:

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16 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

What else they got, threaten to invade somebody?:lol:

Imagine them actually trying to invade a country with a much stronger military than Ukraine, like Finland. Those poor Russian b******* would be flattened like pancakes.

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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Russia warns of possible attack on Kyiv decision-makers, even with Western presence

The Russian military has warned it could strike Ukrainian “decision-making centers” in the Ukrainian capital and said wouldn’t be stopped by the possible presence of Western advisers there.

The Russian Defense Ministry on Tuesday accused the U.K. of making statements encouraging Ukraine to use Western weapons to carry out strikes on the Russian territory, warning that if it happens the Russian military could retaliate by hitting government structures in Kyiv.''

https://globalnews.ca/news/8787436/russia-ukrain-kyiv-attack-western-presence/

 

Seems the West is now willing to risk WW3 over Ukraine. Complete madness.

Edited by Occult1
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