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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6
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22 minutes ago, Grey Area said:

I am happy to stand shoulder to shoulder with anyone else who wants to tell Putin to go **** himself.

Likewise. I would rather die fighting for freedom than live in fear and be at the mercy of a dictatorial terrorist. I hope him and all of his supporters burn for this.

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This General believes Putin will manage to take a third of the Ukraine and finally surround the last piece of land the Ukraine would possess on the Black Sea, around Odessa, finally attacking it from the East by the conquering Russian troops and from the West by their troops in Transnistria.  To avoid this outcome Ukraine would need to increase attacks on Russian territory.  Hmmm.

 

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Russian soldiers are already deliberately spoiling their equipment so as not to go on the attack. Also, some individuals want to injure themselves so as not to fight, as Ukrainian artillery breaks them badly. Recently, there was a conflict between Chechens and Buryats, since the latter were on the front lines and were dying, and Chechens as an elite behind and do not fight, so the Buryats did not like that they were used as cannon fodder. These are the moods in the Russian army. In a few days, Ukrainian troops destroyed about 400 enemy soldiers so that they do not have time to replenish their battalions.

The Russian army has such a shortage that the command has to threaten them with execution, but the soldiers are not afraid, since there are many refuseniks and they will not shoot them all.

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@Coil  :clap: great to hear from you!  I may have missed some previous posts but this is the first I have noticed any - a lot of us were worried about you.. Hope you're safe?   

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17 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

This General believes Putin will manage to take a third of the Ukraine and finally surround the last piece of land the Ukraine would possess on the Black Sea, around Odessa, finally attacking it from the East by the conquering Russian troops and from the West by their troops in Transnistria.  To avoid this outcome Ukraine would need to increase attacks on Russian territory.  Hmmm.

 

I posted a map before of what I think and now I found this and it shows what I think is going on. It's all about the oil and gas resources and the Russian strategy seems to validate what I think.

This map shows the pre-conflict oil and gas deposits that Ukraine had at its disposal and the taking of The Crimea accomplished part of Putin's goal to take all of eastern and southern Ukraine. 

 

Preconflict oil and gas ukraine.jpg

Edited by Buzz_Light_Year
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34 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

I posted a map before of what I think and now I found this and it shows what I think is going on. It's all about the oil and gas resources and the Russian strategy seems to validate what I think.

This map shows the pre-conflict oil and gas deposits that Ukraine had at its disposal and the taking of The Crimea accomplished part of Putin's goal to take all of eastern and southern Ukraine. 

 

Preconflict oil and gas ukraine.jpg

Good map, I knew the Ukraine was rich in natural resources but never saw the layout of them on a map. 

Couldn't see Putin going after those western reserves. Too close to NATO territory.

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2 hours ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

I posted a map before of what I think and now I found this and it shows what I think is going on. It's all about the oil and gas resources and the Russian strategy seems to validate what I think.

This map shows the pre-conflict oil and gas deposits that Ukraine had at its disposal and the taking of The Crimea accomplished part of Putin's goal to take all of eastern and southern Ukraine. 

 

Preconflict oil and gas ukraine.jpg

Shame that their all closer to Russia.

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5 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

This General believes Putin will manage to take a third of the Ukraine and finally surround the last piece of land the Ukraine would possess on the Black Sea, around Odessa, finally attacking it from the East by the conquering Russian troops and from the West by their troops in Transnistria.  To avoid this outcome Ukraine would need to increase attacks on Russian territory.  Hmmm.

 

Kind of sounds interesting but...
Russia has taken practically no real land gains in the last two weeks. At the rate they are going it would literally take YEARS to take the land that this general is saying they will take. That's also ignoring that Ukraine has taken back land, and that the Russians are paying a pretty high price for not taking much and losing in other places.

And the longer this goes the more Economic pressure they have on them, and the more things go wrong at home. And the more equipment (And men) show up for Ukraine.

Now that being said, I think this guy is giving worst possible opinion because that's how military types work, you plan for the worst (And ask for the funding for it)

But even if Putin declares out and out war on may 9th, It's going to take months to really ramp stuff up, and Ukraine has just as much time. And that is not going to play well at home.

Simply put, I think Russia is in a very bad position here.

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14 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

 

The problem is this is dangerous, as the Russians are not weak. They are the worlds 2nd military power. But the US isn`t bothered about that because if it goes wrong it is Eastern and Central Europe who will be the lambs to the slaughter.

Russia is my basically no measure the world 2nd military's power.

By total number of men they are 5th... After China, India, the USA and North Korea.
 

Russia is suppose to have something like 12k tanks (Well closer to 10k now) But basically no one thinks that's correct, most of those are rusted and un-usable.
China by comparison has around 5k tanks and they actually tend to work.
Same thing with air force, the Chinese airforce is a bit smaller, but it actually tends to fly...

The Russians have shown themselves the be laughable inept.

At this point it's same to say that baring nuclear weapons (More on that in a moment)

Russia MIGHT be a regional power.
Most likely overall behind China/India at 4th it they are lucky.

Because it's very likely from what we have been seeing that Japan, South Korean, France hell maybe even the UK or Pakistan would send Russia packing and bloodied.

And to the concept of Nuclear weapons?
So what..
Literally every nation on the list I just named with the exception of Japan and South Korean have Nuclear weapons.
And at least in the case of France/UK they actually have all of them out of storage and in launch vehicles.

A lot of Russia's are in storage.
Are gravity bombs (Will never make it to the target)
Are on cruiser missiles that have been getting shot down over Ukraine at a rate of around 80+% in the last 2 weeks.
Actually WORK. Many even former Russian commanders question how many of the Russian missiles will fire or work.

In truth Russia's nuclear arsenals is likely no better or more impressive then China's/Frances/UK's.
Which mind you is bad, but if you are going to talk about Russia's "Power" then that's not a big deal against those other nations.

Russia has proven itself a paper tiger,  No one is really impressed at this point, not even really the Russians.

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35 minutes ago, AlonaLameDeer said:

Kind of sounds interesting but...
Russia has taken practically no real land gains in the last two weeks. At the rate they are going it would literally take YEARS to take the land that this general is saying they will take. That's also ignoring that Ukraine has taken back land, and that the Russians are paying a pretty high price for not taking much and losing in other places.

And the longer this goes the more Economic pressure they have on them, and the more things go wrong at home. And the more equipment (And men) show up for Ukraine.

Now that being said, I think this guy is giving worst possible opinion because that's how military types work, you plan for the worst (And ask for the funding for it)

But even if Putin declares out and out war on may 9th, It's going to take months to really ramp stuff up, and Ukraine has just as much time. And that is not going to play well at home.

Simply put, I think Russia is in a very bad position here.

I agree with most of what you wrote but I thought they would have felt more of the pinch with sanctions by now but, while the common Russian might be scrambling for a normal life, Putin's war machine isn't.  At least not for now and until he can sell his gas and China keeps on supporting him financially he'll keep going.  What I presume the General is saying is 'these are Putin's objectives, it might take a while to achieve them and the only way to speed up his demise and ruining his plans is by increasing attacks in Russia'.

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On 5/1/2022 at 8:48 PM, Gunn said:

Dude has shot himself in the foot waaaaaaaay too many times

~snip~

Best to stay on topic.  

Edited by and then
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On 5/1/2022 at 8:45 PM, DarkHunter said:

Seems what has these Russian civilians living in Crimea scared is that the Ukranian military will soon invade Crimea

That isn't very realistic though, is it?  Ukraine may be able to stop the Russians from quickly advancing but I don't see that they've got enough men under arms to execute such an offensive.  They COULD poison the head waters that serve Crimea, though.  I read somewhere a few months ago that Crimea's water scarcity would become critical by this June unless it is bolstered before then.

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1 hour ago, and then said:

That isn't very realistic though, is it?  Ukraine may be able to stop the Russians from quickly advancing but I don't see that they've got enough men under arms to execute such an offensive.  They COULD poison the head waters that serve Crimea, though.  I read somewhere a few months ago that Crimea's water scarcity would become critical by this June unless it is bolstered before then.

It comes down to if Russia will formally declare war or not.

If Russia does not declare war they will be limited to their approximately 200,000 contract soldiers currently in Ukraine, with an extra approximately 50,000 from Donetsk and Lunetsk combined with maybe 10,000 or so Chechens.  Ultimately Russia will be stuck with just about 250,000 soldiers to hold onto everything plus trying to achieve their objectives.  Meanwhile Ukraine had about 200,000 in their military and 100,000 in paramilitary at the start of the invasion but the big issue is the 900,000 Ukranian reserves plus new Ukranian volunteers.  The 900,000 Ukranian reserves and new Ukranian volunteers take time to be trained or retrained, equipped, organized, and fielded.  Even then they cant all go through it at once and there will be multiple waves of new units being produced and sent out into the field.

As the Ukranian military is right now they cant realistically invade Crimea but at the end of summer/mid fall when there are an additional 200,000 to 300,000 Ukranian combatants who will probably be trained and equipped either partially or fully with NATO equipment then an invasion of Crimea becomes much more possible especially if Russia doesnt formally declare war.  If the war goes on long enough it's not impossible for Ukraine to be fielding a military numbering between 750,000 to 1,250,000 by the time the war ends.

Barring Russia formally declaring war, which Putin may or may not do, the longer the invasion goes on the stronger Ukraine will become militarily and the more options it will have for reclaiming everything.

Edited by DarkHunter
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21 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

This conflict is over a decade in the making and is actually a struggle between three nations - USA, Russia, and China.

The USA wants to make sure this century is another American Century which means curbing a resurgent Russia and a rising China. To begin with NATO has not honoured its pledge to Russia following the collapse of the USSR by creeping east, put them into a corner where their only option was to invade Ukraine, and intends to use Ukraine as a proxy war to grind them down.

The problem is this is dangerous, as the Russians are not weak. They are the worlds 2nd military power. But the US isn`t bothered about that because if it goes wrong it is Eastern and Central Europe who will be the lambs to the slaughter.

The worlds 2nd military power according to Youtube. Mate the British military has been ripped to shreds by alot of Tory cuts and we aint as strong as we were, but we could still fight of the Ruskies on our own. They're not as powerful as Occult says they are.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly transfer power for a few days to an “outright villain” while he undergoes cancer surgery, according to a new report.

A video from the Telegram channel “General SVR” published on Saturday alleged Putin’s top spy chief Nikolai Patrushev will gain control of the Russian Government while the 69-year-old is recovering from surgery.

link

 

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4 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly transfer power for a few days to an “outright villain” while he undergoes cancer surgery, according to a new report.

A video from the Telegram channel “General SVR” published on Saturday alleged Putin’s top spy chief Nikolai Patrushev will gain control of the Russian Government while the 69-year-old is recovering from surgery.

link

 

I've heard about that the russian medicine named polonium does great things.

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11 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Barring Russia formally declaring war, which Putin may or may not do, the longer the invasion goes on the stronger Ukraine will become militarily and the more options it will have for reclaiming everything.

Yes, but that action by Ukraine would effectively "justify" his actions as far as his citizens are concerned.  If he formally declares war, the chances for further escalation increase.  

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14 hours ago, AlonaLameDeer said:

Simply put, I think Russia is in a very bad position here.

Which makes it potentially more dangerous for everyone.

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55 minutes ago, and then said:

Yes, but that action by Ukraine would effectively "justify" his actions as far as his citizens are concerned.  If he formally declares war, the chances for further escalation increase.  

Doesnt matter if its justifies his actions to the Russian citizens or not.  If Putin wants to formally declare war on Ukraine now he can and justify it with whatever he feels like saying, regardless of how outlandish or insane it is at minimum 80%+ of the Russian population will either believe Putin or at minimum support him.  Worrying about providing Putin justification for any action now is pointless and limits what can be done to counter him.  

What will impact if Russia declares war or not is if the Russian economy can survive a war economy, can Putin survive the political backlash of a lot of conscripts getting maimed and killed, and will the Russian military be in a state where conscripts are even useful. 

Despite reports out of Russia and their counter measures the Russian economy isnt doing good and the shock of losing a chunk of its workforce to conscriptions might just push it completely over the edge. 

Historically high casualty wars that are going poorly have been a catalyst for regime change in Russia while just simply losing a war hasnt, Putin is almost certainly aware of that fact. 

Lastly the Russian military has lost an insane amount of its military hardware, depending on the numbers one wants to use between 20% and 35% of its active tanks.  Due to sanctions and various other issues the Russian military is not able to realistically replace its losses with new hardware and the hardware it has in reserves may or may not be functional anymore, some estimates I have seen have speculated between 50% and 66% of its stored military hardware is no longer functional, some estimates have it even higher.  Using massed infantry with no training, barely equipped, and extremely low moral wont be an aid to the Russian military.

Ultimately the west and Ukraine cant let the fear of what Putin might do in response as a guide to action as Putin is going to do what he wants anyway.  Best course of action is arguably to try and end the conflict as quickly as possible by shocking the Russian population.

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21 hours ago, Essan said:

@Coil  :clap: great to hear from you!  I may have missed some previous posts but this is the first I have noticed any - a lot of us were worried about you.. Hope you're safe?   


I'm not in a war zone so I'm fine.

22 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

This General believes Putin will manage to take a third of the Ukraine and finally surround the last piece of land the Ukraine would possess on the Black Sea, around Odessa, finally attacking it from the East by the conquering Russian troops and from the West by their troops in Transnistria.  To avoid this outcome Ukraine would need to increase attacks on Russian territory.  Hmmm.

 


In Transnistria, preparations are underway for the evacuation of the families of Russian officers.

They themselves do not want to fight because they listen to Ukrainian news on television and understand that they will be quickly defeated.
 

1647854329_1645785824_pridnestrovie.jpg

Edited by Coil
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41 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Doesnt matter if its justifies his actions to the Russian citizens or not.  If Putin wants to formally declare war on Ukraine now he can and justify it with whatever he feels like saying, regardless of how outlandish or insane it is at minimum 80%+ of the Russian population will either believe Putin or at minimum support him.  Worrying about providing Putin justification for any action now is pointless and limits what can be done to counter him.  

What will impact if Russia declares war or not is if the Russian economy can survive a war economy, can Putin survive the political backlash of a lot of conscripts getting maimed and killed, and will the Russian military be in a state where conscripts are even useful. 

Despite reports out of Russia and their counter measures the Russian economy isnt doing good and the shock of losing a chunk of its workforce to conscriptions might just push it completely over the edge. 

Historically high casualty wars that are going poorly have been a catalyst for regime change in Russia while just simply losing a war hasnt, Putin is almost certainly aware of that fact. 

Lastly the Russian military has lost an insane amount of its military hardware, depending on the numbers one wants to use between 20% and 35% of its active tanks.  Due to sanctions and various other issues the Russian military is not able to realistically replace its losses with new hardware and the hardware it has in reserves may or may not be functional anymore, some estimates I have seen have speculated between 50% and 66% of its stored military hardware is no longer functional, some estimates have it even higher.  Using massed infantry with no training, barely equipped, and extremely low moral wont be an aid to the Russian military.

Ultimately the west and Ukraine cant let the fear of what Putin might do in response as a guide to action as Putin is going to do what he wants anyway.  Best course of action is arguably to try and end the conflict as quickly as possible by shocking the Russian population.

Hi Dark

My feeling it that if Putin declares war that there will be more assaults on Russia soil by both the Ukraine as well as other groups presently residing in Russia

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The situation at Staryi Saltiv is still not clear but the town of Molodova 1 to 2 miles away from Staryi Saltiv has been confirmed as liberated by the Ukranian military.  It's very likely that Staryi Saltiv has been liberated by Ukraine.  

America has reported that Ukraine has started to use the M777 howitzers they have received against Russian forces.  Not clear what ammunition they are using but if they are using the excalibur round they will have a range of about 40 km.  If using the M795 round than it will have a range between 28.7 and 37 km.

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1 hour ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Dark

My feeling it that if Putin declares war that there will be more assaults on Russia soil by both the Ukraine as well as other groups presently residing in Russia

In my opinion WW3 is coming.

I just hope that when it starts Britain is able to keep out of the nuclear exchange. But our government keeps trying to provoke Russia. Let everyone else do the fighting, and we can turn up at the end to save the world like we normally do.

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8 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

In my opinion WW3 is coming.

I just hope that when it starts Britain is able to keep out of the nuclear exchange. But our government keeps trying to provoke Russia. Let everyone else do the fighting, and we can turn up at the end to save the world like we normally do.

Hi Cookie

Could you supply links to when your country saved the world in the past I must have missed that bit or do you mean colonialized through occupation?

I am sure your not the only one here that would rather watch others subjected to what is going on and World War means just that go hide if that is your way but don't try claiming glory when the dust settles for your great accomplishments as an individual.

Edited by jmccr8
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2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Doesnt matter if its justifies his actions to the Russian citizens or not.  If Putin wants to formally declare war on Ukraine now he can and justify it with whatever he feels like saying, regardless of how outlandish or insane it is at minimum 80%+ of the Russian population will either believe Putin or at minimum support him.  Worrying about providing Putin justification for any action now is pointless and limits what can be done to counter him.  

What will impact if Russia declares war or not is if the Russian economy can survive a war economy, can Putin survive the political backlash of a lot of conscripts getting maimed and killed, and will the Russian military be in a state where conscripts are even useful. 

Despite reports out of Russia and their counter measures the Russian economy isnt doing good and the shock of losing a chunk of its workforce to conscriptions might just push it completely over the edge. 

Historically high casualty wars that are going poorly have been a catalyst for regime change in Russia while just simply losing a war hasnt, Putin is almost certainly aware of that fact. 

Lastly the Russian military has lost an insane amount of its military hardware, depending on the numbers one wants to use between 20% and 35% of its active tanks.  Due to sanctions and various other issues the Russian military is not able to realistically replace its losses with new hardware and the hardware it has in reserves may or may not be functional anymore, some estimates I have seen have speculated between 50% and 66% of its stored military hardware is no longer functional, some estimates have it even higher.  Using massed infantry with no training, barely equipped, and extremely low moral wont be an aid to the Russian military.

Ultimately the west and Ukraine cant let the fear of what Putin might do in response as a guide to action as Putin is going to do what he wants anyway.  Best course of action is arguably to try and end the conflict as quickly as possible by shocking the Russian population.

So how does that work ? Declaring war i mean . Is there only a certain amount of soldiers allowed if one does not declare war ? Or what is to stop a country to just send or add more anyway? I mean is this some kind of international law?

 

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