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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6
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11 minutes ago, godnodog said:

yeap,

today I saw a video explaining that the russian precision missiles have a fail rate (missing their specific location targets) by over 60%.
If this is true, then with the better anti missile systems, tanks, russian will need to resort to airstrikes which will lead to heavy aircraft losses, or they will suffer a lot more of damage by comparison to what they got so far.
I just wish Putin would call it a victory day and go back waving victory flags and how great they are, and hell, how they "defeated" NATO in this proxy war.

It's not even clear if Putin knows what is going on in the invasion anymore.  There is suspicion that those closest to Putin have been lieing to him about how the war is actually going and that he has no idea how poorly Russis is performing.  

Even if he does know Putin cant just stop the war now, doing so would be a sign of weakness and has a high chance of the oligarchs turning on Putin and trying to remove him from power permanently.  In theory Putin could save himself by doing a massive crack down on the oligarchs but it would leave Russia weak for years or decades due to internal political damage.  For Putin this is a life or death situation.

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Two Ukranian Su-25s

From reports Ukraine is increasing the amount of sorties it flys per day targeting Russian positions and defending Ukrainian airspace.  

But as some have said on here the Ukranian airforce has been destroyed and Russia has complete control over Ukranian airspace.

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Seeing a lot of rumors about an ongoing Ukranian counter attack focused on Izium.  No idea what if anything is true but from the rumors it seems the Ukranian military is trying to cut off Izium from supplies and trap the 22 Russian battalion tactical groups positioned there.

All of this is so far only a rumor, very well could not be true, but the Ukranian military did announce earlier that they believe the Russian Donbas offensive has stalled and counter offensive operations were beginning.

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2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

But as some have said on here the Ukranian airforce has been destroyed and Russia has complete control over Ukranian airspace.

Most of it has been destroyed. But it has been reported that Ukraine utilizes U.S. intelligence to move their few remaining planes and the air defense systems nearly every day to avoid Russian airstrikes, which is the reason why Russia has not been able to achieve complete air supremacy since the start of the war.

Edited by Occult1
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5 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Most of it has been destroyed. But it has been reported that Ukraine utilizes U.S. intelligence to move their few remaining planes and the air defense systems nearly every day to avoid Russian airstrikes, which is the reason why Russia has not been able to achieve complete air supremacy since the start of the war.

But you been claiming Russia completely destroyed Ukraines air force and air defense along with having complete and total air superiority.

You finally going to admit you are wrong and just regurgitate pro-Russian propaganda ad misinformation.

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1 minute ago, DarkHunter said:

But you been claiming Russia completely destroyed Ukraines air force and air defense along with having complete and total air superiority.

Where did I claim that? Please show exact quote.

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15 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Most of it has been destroyed. But It has been reported that Ukraine utilizes U.S. intelligence to move their few remaining planes and the air defense systems nearly every day to avoid Russian airstrikes, which is the reason why Russia has not been able to achieve complete air supremacy since the start of the war.

Not just air defense systems and planes - if reports are to be believed, the US has been providing locations of military officers on the battlefield, with a quoted number of 12 high-profile military officers being killed as a result of US intel. 

It does seem as if there is some conflicting reporting on the matter, though - pentagon is denying it completely, but the national security council seems to have adjusted their initial wording, instead now saying that "we do not provide battlefield intelligence with the intent to kill".

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/politics/russia-generals-killed-ukraine.html

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/05/russian-generals-killed-in-ukraine-with-help-of-us-intelligence-nyt-a77583

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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10 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Where did I claim that? Please show exact quote.

You want to play that game again fine, will take a bit of time but I always enjoyed rubbing your face into your own Russian propaganda.

On 4/6/2022 at 11:06 AM, Occult1 said:

Russia has air superiority over Ukrainian skies. They have degraded Ukraine's military capabilities.

There are more but this thread is being weird with saving quotes and jumping through pages.

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On 4/25/2022 at 4:16 PM, Occult1 said:

Since Russia maintain air superiority over the Ukrainian skies

There was this time too

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On 4/23/2022 at 11:02 PM, Occult1 said:

They also have air superiority, which is a critical advantage people tend to overlook.

And this time, three instances all found in a few minutes.

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12 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Air superiority is not the same thing a complete air supremacy.

''Air superiority is defined as being able to conduct air operations “without prohibitive interference by the opposing force.” Air supremacy goes further, wherein the opposing air force is incapable of effective interference.''

https://www.airforcemag.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Magazine Documents/2016/February 2016/0216supremacy.pdf

 

Russia has air superiority over Ukrainian skies. It deploys more - and better - fighters than the small Ukrainian air force and can prevent large-scale raids across the border by Kyiv’s struggling air arm.

 

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3 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Air superiority is not the same thing a complete air supremacy.

''Air superiority is defined as being able to conduct air operations “without prohibitive interference by the opposing force.” Air supremacy goes further, wherein the opposing air force is incapable of effective interference.''

https://www.airforcemag.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Magazine Documents/2016/February 2016/0216supremacy.pdf

 

Your defense is playing semantic games now, you accept you have zero credibility with your claims.  You made it clear you only push Russian propaganda and misinformation.

Edited by DarkHunter
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10 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Your defense is playing semantic games now, you accept you have zero credibility with your claims.  You made it clear you only push Russian propaganda and misinformation.

I think it's important to have clear definitions.

Oftentimes air superiority and air supremacy are terms used interchangeably by some people when they shouldn't.

https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Air_supremacy

Edited by Occult1
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3 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I think it's important to have clear definitions.

Oftentimes air superiority and air supremacy are terms used interchangeably by some people when they shouldn't.

You know exactly what you meant in each of those post but this is the second time you have played this stupid game.  The last time was with Ukraine's airforce e being destroyed.  If you want to play these games you can but everyone sees you for what you are.

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9 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

The last time was with Ukraine's airforce e being destroyed.

 

We are expected to believe that just because Ukraine flew 2 aircrafts at very low altitude over their own territories they have amazing air power? I seriously doubt it.

They are overwhelmed from the skies and their token air force is no match against Russia's.

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3 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

 

We are expected to believe that just because Ukraine flew 2 aircrafts at very low altitude over their own territories they have amazing air power? I seriously doubt it.

They have overwhelmed from the skies and their token air force is no match against Russia's.

Now you are falling back to your past claims, you cant even pick a singular narrative to stick to anymore.

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FIRMs satellite images are showing a lot of fires breaking out around Izium, normally that is indicative of heavy fighting.

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Russia and Ukraine's "war of attrition" has begun, says European official

The "war of attrition" has begun in Ukraine, as Russian forces make a grinding push using heavy artillery shelling in the south and east of the country alongside deep strikes further west into Ukraine in an attempt to disrupt logistical supply lines used by the West. Predicting when the Russian offensive will end is very complicated, a European official in Washington told reporters Thursday.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/russia-ukraines-war-attrition-begun-201839081.html

 

Russia has numerical superiority in the Donbas, as well as a comparative advantage in air- and ground-launched fires. In a drawn-out war of attrition, this advantage will gradually tilt the battle toward Russian forces.

The better-supplied force will be able to sustain pressure on enemy lines, building offensive momentum and secure victory in the Donbas.

Edited by Occult1
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27 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Russia and Ukraine's "war of attrition" has begun, says European official

The "war of attrition" has begun in Ukraine, as Russian forces make a grinding push using heavy artillery shelling in the south and east of the country alongside deep strikes further west into Ukraine in an attempt to disrupt logistical supply lines used by the West. Predicting when the Russian offensive will end is very complicated, a European official in Washington told reporters Thursday.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/russia-ukraines-war-attrition-begun-201839081.html

 

Russia has numerical superiority in the Donbas, as well as a comparative advantage in air- and ground-launched fires. In a drawn-out war of attrition, this advantage will gradually tilt the battle toward Russian forces.

The better-supplied force will be able to sustain pressure on enemy lines, building offensive momentum and secure victory in the Donbas.

Still just ignoring Ukraine's 900000 reserves plus volunteers then?

The Ukrainian military is only going to grow the longer this drags on, while Russia's dwindles.

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32 minutes ago, Setton said:

Still just ignoring Ukraine's 900000 reserves plus volunteers then?

The Ukrainian military is only going to grow the longer this drags on, while Russia's dwindles.

Ukraine doesn't have the logistics to gather reinforcements from across the country and deploy them to eastern Ukraine. Large-scale movements of Ukrainian armed forces would be easily detected and become targets for Russian strikes. If they could mobilize all these reservists to defeat the Russian offensive in the Donbass, they would have done it already. So that 900000 is completely irrelevant.

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23 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Ukraine doesn't have the logistics to gather reinforcements from across the country and deploy them to eastern Ukraine. Large-scale movements of Ukrainian armed forces would be easily detected and become targets for Russian strikes. If they could mobilize all these reservists to defeat the Russian offensive in the Donbass, they would have done it already. So that 900000 is completely irrelevant.

They'll find a way , they resourceful.

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27 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Ukraine doesn't have the logistics to gather reinforcements from across the country and deploy them to eastern Ukraine. Large-scale movements of Ukrainian armed forces would be easily detected and become targets for Russian strikes. If they could mobilize all these reservists to defeat the Russian offensive in the Donbass, they would have done it already. So that 900000 is completely irrelevant.

You have no idea how mobilization works do you.  900,000+ people who will either need retrained for the reserve forces or trained for the first time with the volunteers takes time.  Besides from the training they need armed, organized, and transported.  Then there is the issue of limited capacity for training or retraining.

The ones who can be sent out the fastest have/are being sent to replace losses from the units already in combat.  

The rest will be trained at probably close to maximum training capacity for Ukraine.  Probably take approximately 2 months to train, equipped, and organize each batch with each batch probably being between 100,000 to 200,000 soldiers.  The first batch will probably be ready soon if it isnt already.  Realistically by start of fall to mid fall Ukraine will probably have increased its military size by 500,000 to 600,000 extra combatants.

As for your claims of large movements being at risk of being targeted by Russian air power if that was capable at all than why hasnt Russia used that ability to target the large Ukranian troop concentrations already deployed and end the war.

But as always you just push Russian propaganda and misinformation and have no real idea about what you are talking about.

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45 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

So that 900000 is completely irrelevant.

I think you are right, they are not currently needed.  Maybe they are getting ready for the counterstrike when Putin and his bunker buddies see what it is like to be on the other end of munitions. 

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For anyone that is interested and wondering why Russian airpower has been so ineffective there is a relatively simple reason for it and it is the Russians dont really know how to use airpower at a large scale strategic level.

Russian war planning, strategies, and military doctrine essentially all come from the USSR which isnt particularly surprising.  Problem is the USSR never believed they would have air superiority against a war with NATO so they never bothered really bothered developing the plans, strategies, and doctrines that it requires.  The Soviet mindset was largely that they would lose most if not all of their airforce or at minimum the ability to use their airforce within the first few hours or days of a war with NATO.

It's not that USSR thought their airforce was useless just that at best near every mission would be a one way suicide mission with low probability of the aircraft returning or being able to returned.  This is why a lot of Soviet designed aircraft are primitive airfield capable as they thought being able to land and take off from a field was worth it despite the negatives it entails.  It's also partially why the Soviets invested so much in ground anti-air systems.  

Achieving air superiority requires much more than just destroying the enemies airforce, one needs a SEAD doctrine to destroy enemy ground anti-air which Russia largely lacks, also need the planning and the logistics to constantly put new jets in the air to run constant combat patrols which Russia lacks the planning for as it's a very complex task to perform.  

The Russian airforce is able to do relatively simple task like picking up an enemy on radar and sending interceptors or sending up bombers to attack preplanned Ukranian positions but those are very simple and basic tactics and are about as advanced as Russian air doctrine gets.

Essentially the USSR never envisioned it having air superiority and now Russia doesnt know what to do now that they have been in a position to achieve it.  

To be fair America/NATO never envisioned a conflict where they wont have air superiority either.

Edited by DarkHunter
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