Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[Grey Area]

4 hours ago, el midgetron said:

But when Ukraine kidnaps dissidents that’s acceptable?  

Why would I think it was?

we were talking about Russian civilian acceptance of the war.  

[Grim Reaper 6]

4 hours ago, el midgetron said:

 

 

 

 

Ajamu Baraka, another Russian Apologist, this is the same guy who supported Syrias leader Bashar al-Assad. I suppose I should not be surprised, carry on Comrade El Midgetron!

[Setton]

8 hours ago, el midgetron said:

 

 

 

 

“I believe you will win, I am convinced you will win and we will do everything we can to provide you with what you need to win” - John McCain 2016

We've invaded Ukraine - Vladimir Putin 2014.

[Duke Wellington]

21 minutes ago, Setton said:

We've invaded Ukraine - Vladimir Putin 2014.

Its a geostrategic battle between the USA and Russia which has been going on for the last decade.

The USA does not want Russia who is still running a half trillion dollar surplus from its hydrocarbon exports (despite the sanctions) to re-emerge as a superpower. The key to which side will win is Germany.

Germany has to pick if it wants to export to the USA or import hydrocarbons from Russia. Which ever it picks its screwed. It either looses the US export market and goes into a deep recession. Or it looses its hydrocarbon imports so it cannot make the products to export to US markets. Then goes into a deep recession.

I predict the winner will be the hidden third option! Germany....

It will do the bare minimum to keep each side off its back and let them grind each other down. It cannot do anything else, and plus, I dont believe the Franco-Prussian Empire (which some still call the EU!), wont act in its own self-interest. One which sees it emerge as a superpower while Russian wings are clipped and the USA declines.

[godnodog]

1 hour ago, Cookie Monster said:

Its a geostrategic battle between the USA and Russia which has been going on for the last decade.

The USA does not want Russia who is still running a half trillion dollar surplus from its hydrocarbon exports (despite the sanctions) to re-emerge as a superpower. The key to which side will win is Germany.

Germany has to pick if it wants to export to the USA or import hydrocarbons from Russia. Which ever it picks its screwed. It either looses the US export market and goes into a deep recession. Or it looses its hydrocarbon imports so it cannot make the products to export to US markets. Then goes into a deep recession.

I predict the winner will be the hidden third option! Germany....

It will do the bare minimum to keep each side off its back and let them grind each other down. It cannot do anything else, and plus, I dont believe the Franco-Prussian Empire (which some still call the EU!), wont act in its own self-interest. One which sees it emerge as a superpower while Russian wings are clipped and the USA declines.

You really need to go see a psychologist regarding tour obsession with the EU, it looks psycotic now

[+Nuclear Wessel]

Senior Russian lawmaker says U.S. directly involved in Ukraine fighting | National Post

Quote

 

Russia’s most senior lawmaker on Saturday accused Washington of coordinating military operations in Ukraine, which he said amounted to direct U.S. involvement in military action against Russia.

“Washington is essentially coordinating and developing military operations, thereby directly participating in military actions against our country,” Vyacheslav Volodin wrote on his Telegram channel.

 

 

[odas]

On 5/6/2022 at 12:38 PM, Occult1 said:

So you dismiss sources as "Russian garbage" only when they don't fit your narrative.

Obviously you don't know what is coming, eh?

 

[spartan max2]

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Senior Russian lawmaker says U.S. directly involved in Ukraine fighting | National Post

 

Yep.

Be happy we are not sending troops Putin.

[odas]

9 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

Ajamu Baraka, another Russian Apologist, this is the same guy who supported Syrias leader Bashar al-Assad. I suppose I should not be surprised, carry on Comrade El Midgetron!

Welcome back Brother!!!! Hope you are in good health!

[DarkHunter]

Not confirmed officially but from FIRM satellite images it seems the Ukranians are attempting a pincher movement on the salient at Izium.  Judging from the fires picked up by FIRM satellites it seems there is heavy fighting immediately east and west of Izium.  If the Ukranian military if able to take and hold Izium approximately 22 to 27 Russian battalion tactical groups will be cut off and trapped.  Those 22 to 27 Russian battalion tactical groups would be approximately 1/6 of the Russian battalion tactical groups in Ukraine.

Taking and holding Izium would also essentially end the Russian offensive in the Donbas immediately.  

[DarkHunter]

Ukranian military just announced they have liberated Tsyrkuny which held the last artillery position Russia was using to shell Kharkiv.  Seems now the bombardment of Kharkiv by Russia is over.

Also from unconfirmed reports the Russians north of Kharkiv are in a general retreat towards the border.

[Duke Wellington]

When sanctions were put in place on Russia its currency had a bit of a crash. Has anyone seen what the Ruble is currently worth against the USD?

Its doing amazing, all losses reversed, and the Ruble has gone into orbit. USD is sinking fast vs it.

[spartan max2]

15 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

When sanctions were put in place on Russia its currency had a bit of a crash. Has anyone seen what the Ruble is currently worth against the USD?

Its doing amazing, all losses reversed, and the Ruble has gone into orbit. USD is sinking fast vs it.

Russia did some stuff to save it's currency but it's not really a long term sustainable plan.

 

Their central bank did interest rates at 20% to discourage people from exchanging their rubels for foreign currency.

They also required all their businesses to have 80% of their money to be in rubles. 

If you had a ruble it would be difficult to use it elsewhere due to different exchanges and banks not accepting it.

Basically Russia did alot of things making it so Russians and businesses are not allowed to sell their rubels for other currency. This inflates the value of the rubbel.

Russia made a good short term move to save it's currency but it won't work long-term if things continue as they are.

Their central bank is expecting an inflation rate of 18-20% by the end of the year.

Edited May 7, 2022 by spartan max2

[DarkHunter]

Two Ukranian Su-27s bombing Russian occupied snake island.  This is after a TB-2 drone destroyed a Russian anti-air system that was on a Russian landing craft which was also seemingly destroyed.

Other videos coming out today are showing Ukranian Su-25s flying to attack Russian positions in the Donbas and videos of Ukranian Mig-29s flying over Ukraine.

But as a reminder according to Russia, and those that push their propaganda, the Ukranian airforce has been destroyed and Russia has air superiority over Ukraine.

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

17 hours ago, el midgetron said:

 

 

 

 

If they were JUST attacking Nazis, we’d probsbly be cheering them on. 
They’re not. It’s a leibenstraum invasion, not a targeted “removal of player exercise”. 

[Grim Reaper 6]

4 hours ago, odas said:

Welcome back Brother!!!! Hope you are in good health!

Thanks my friend I also hope you are well. My return will be short lived just want to let those who care know I am still kicking. 

[Duke Wellington]

3 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

Russia did some stuff to save it's currency but it's not really a long term sustainable plan.

 

Their central bank did interest rates at 20% to discourage people from exchanging their rubels for foreign currency.

They also required all their businesses to have 80% of their money to be in rubles. 

If you had a ruble it would be difficult to use it elsewhere due to different exchanges and banks not accepting it.

Basically Russia did alot of things making it so Russians and businesses are not allowed to sell their rubels for other currency. This inflates the value of the rubbel.

Russia made a good short term move to save it's currency but it won't work long-term if things continue as they are.

Their central bank is expecting an inflation rate of 18-20% by the end of the year.

I suggest the key reason is that Russian oil and gas is still being sold, for much more profit, because of much higher prices.

And bearing in mind how limited the global oil and gas supply is, then all that happens is for those western countries already honouring the sanctions they end up buying Russian oil anyway through a second party. Look at the oil and gas prices my fellow Indians, lets buy it, and sell it to the West with our profit charged on top.

All the sanctions have done is driven up the price, and made Western countries buy what is very likely the same oil through a middle man.

[DarkHunter]

4 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

They also required all their businesses to have 80% of their money to be in rubles. 

That part is a bit off, what Russia required was that businesses sell off 80% of their foreign currency reserves and buy rubles to create a fake demand to stabilize the ruble.

This tactic will work for a short while until the foreign reserves the various businesses have start to run low then the demand for the Russian ruble will drop.

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, Cookie Monster said:

I suggest the key reason is that Russian oil and gas is still being sold, for much more profit, because of much higher prices.

And bearing in mind how limited the global oil and gas supply is, then all that happens is for those western countries already honouring the sanctions they end up buying Russian oil anyway through a second party. Look at the oil and gas prices my fellow Indians, lets buy it, and sell it to the West with our profit charged on top.

All the sanctions have done is driven up the price, and made Western countries buy what is very likely the same oil through a middle man.

The sanctions werent just meant to destroy the Russian economy but mess up Russian military production which it is doing extremely well.

Due to lack of imported computer chips Russia's only tank manufacturing plant was forced to stop production in late March, tractor and vehicle manufacturing has also slowed dramatically or been forced to stop also.  Production for precision ammunition and dozens of other weapon systems are having the same issues as the tank manufacturing is having and are being forced to stop production.  

The longer these sanctions go on the far worse this situation is going to get for Russia.  Servers, communication equipment, and transportation controls both, people and material, all need a constant and steady stream of replacement computer chips and components as they are ran 24/7 at near max capability.  Russia imported most if not all of those components from Europe and switching to Chinese made ones cant be done easily or quickly due to design and architecture issues.  Before too long critical components are going to start failing and when they do the Russian government will have extreme difficulty is not just communicating throughout Russia but in moving men and materials.  Europe might still be buying Russian oil and gas but in a couple months if the sanctions are still in place it wont matter when the computers that control the pump stations used to move the oil and natural gas start to fail.  

The sanctions are working, it's just going to take a couple months before the real pain starts to be felt by the Russian government and the Russian people, arguably the Russian military is already starting to feel the pain of the sanctions.

Edited May 7, 2022 by DarkHunter

[AlonaLameDeer]

Ukrain pushed the Russians back from Kharkiv far enough that the Russians were leaving wounded men and equipment and blowing bridges behind them. And are mostly out of russian artillery range of the city now.
Looks like fast land gains in the south also.
Russian Snake island positions have basically been destroyed.

The Makarov "No were to been seen." not in a Russian port or in the black sea... so.. under the black sea.

Edit: Also confirmed that the Russians lost a transport ship today that had been sent (With no real escort) To resupply Snake island and replace it's (Already has been destroyed twice) SAM system.


Or as Occult would say "Major Russian gains today."

Edited May 8, 2022 by AlonaLameDeer

[+and-then]

On 5/5/2022 at 11:33 AM, Occult1 said:

It seems pretty clear that they have learned a lot from Syria, where a slow, grinding and methodical approach became very successful.

"You are known by the company you keep"  That old saying still holds true.  YOU sir, are without any scrap of mercy for the innocent and Karma is a cruel thing.

[el midgetron]

2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

The sanctions werent just meant to destroy the Russian economy but mess up Russian military production which it is doing extremely well.

Due to lack of imported computer chips Russia's only tank manufacturing plant was forced to stop production in late March, tractor and vehicle manufacturing has also slowed dramatically or been forced to stop also.  Production for precision ammunition and dozens of other weapon systems are having the same issues as the tank manufacturing is having and are being forced to stop production.  

The longer these sanctions go on the far worse this situation is going to get for Russia.  Servers, communication equipment, and transportation controls both, people and material, all need a constant and steady stream of replacement computer chips and components as they are ran 24/7 at near max capability.  Russia imported most if not all of those components from Europe and switching to Chinese made ones cant be done easily or quickly due to design and architecture issues.  Before too long critical components are going to start failing and when they do the Russian government will have extreme difficulty is not just communicating throughout Russia but in moving men and materials.  Europe might still be buying Russian oil and gas but in a couple months if the sanctions are still in place it wont matter when the computers that control the pump stations used to move the oil and natural gas start to fail.  

The sanctions are working, it's just going to take a couple months before the real pain starts to be felt by the Russian government and the Russian people, arguably the Russian military is already starting to feel the pain of the sanctions.

Do you have a source for this? The chip shortages have been a well known global situation since before the invasion. Suggesting that Russia is suffering it due to “sanctions” is pretty bogus. Whatever your source, abandoning it is my best advice. 

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/general-motors-has-chip-shortage-updates-pretty-bad-news-188153.html

https://www.barrons.com/articles/toyota-gm-auto-stocks-chip-shortage-51650299390

[+and-then]

On 5/5/2022 at 2:47 PM, DarkHunter said:

Seeing a lot of rumors about an ongoing Ukranian counter attack focused on Izium.  No idea what if anything is true but from the rumors it seems the Ukranian military is trying to cut off Izium from supplies and trap the 22 Russian battalion tactical groups positioned there.

All of this is so far only a rumor, very well could not be true, but the Ukranian military did announce earlier that they believe the Russian Donbas offensive has stalled and counter offensive operations were beginning.

I'm curious, DH, what do you think will occur if the flow of superior weapons into Ukraine allows them to stalemate or even begin to push Russian forces from the country?

[+and-then]

On 5/5/2022 at 3:03 PM, Nuclear Wessel said:

Not just air defense systems and planes - if reports are to be believed, the US has been providing locations of military officers on the battlefield, with a quoted number of 12 high-profile military officers being killed as a result of US intel. 

They DO seem to suddenly be eager to dial it back but the early reporting I saw was definite and it was celebrating the U.S. being partially responsible (or more) in targeting most of those general officers as well as the targeting of the Moskva.  It seems like someone (s) are trying to rub little Vlad's nose in it and while he certainly deserves humiliation, I also think it is INSANE to mindlessly try to wind him up and humiliate his forces in front of the whole world.

Some will no doubt question whether I'm cowardly and I'll tell them to their faces, when it comes to nukes... HELL YEAH, I'm "cowardly".

 

[+and-then]

On 5/5/2022 at 4:40 PM, Occult1 said:

The better-supplied force will be able to sustain pressure on enemy lines, building offensive momentum

Uh huh... yet, those "superior forces" have been at it for a couple weeks and the only "momentum" they're achieving seems to be the wrong direction.