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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6

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On 5/5/2022 at 10:47 PM, Occult1 said:

The Anti-Russian sanctions are not working at all.

The ONLY benchmark you are using is the value of the ruble.  Their economy has shrunk considerably and many of the supplies they'd need to replace some of their weapons systems (chips) are unavailable to them AT ANY PRICE.  Their economy is hamstrung and it takes awhile for it to collapse totally.  No one in the west actually wants that outcome.  The goal isn't to destroy the Russian state or people.  The goal is to make Putin's military get the hell out of Ukraine.

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35 minutes ago, el midgetron said:

Do you have a source for this? The chip shortages have been a well known global situation since before the invasion. Suggesting that Russia is suffering it due to “sanctions” is pretty bogus. Whatever your source, abandoning it is my best advice. 

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/general-motors-has-chip-shortage-updates-pretty-bad-news-188153.html

https://www.barrons.com/articles/toyota-gm-auto-stocks-chip-shortage-51650299390

I know you have an issue with anything that suggest actions against Russia are working but the reality is the sanctions are hurting Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-curbs-russia-hit-car-production-tank-building-2022-03-30/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2022/03/22/russian-tank-manufacturer-sanctions-ukraine-war/amp/

There are more but Reuters and Fortune should be good enough.

I'm guessing you probably know very little about Russia and their manufacturing ability but one of the weakest links in Russian manufacturing is their inability to produce large amount of computer chips at a high enough quality and reliability.  Russia also has issues in producing stuff like night vision systems, thermal optic systems, and even HD cameras/optics.  Russia has had to import a lot of the components for advanced weapon systems from Europe and those were the first things the sanctions stopped being imported to Russia.  The sanctions essentially ended Russia's ability to produce modern/advanced weapon systems past the parts they had already acquired.

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29 minutes ago, and then said:

They DO seem to suddenly be eager to dial it back but the early reporting I saw was definite and it was celebrating the U.S. being partially responsible (or more) in targeting most of those general officers as well as the targeting of the Moskva.  It seems like someone (s) are trying to rub little Vlad's nose in it and while he certainly deserves humiliation, I also think it is INSANE to mindlessly try to wind him up and humiliate his forces in front of the whole world.

Some will no doubt question whether I'm cowardly and I'll tell them to their faces, when it comes to nukes... HELL YEAH, I'm "cowardly".

 

Vlad deserves all the humiliation that can be heaped upon him and his military because of his aggressive and negative behaviour. Vlad started this thinking the Ukraine would fall like the Crimea, and that was his and his advisers p*** poor planning. If, and it's a big if he allows a Nuclear weapons release I firmly believe it will be a tactical battlefield weapon, not a intercontinental release against another super power with the ability to retaliate in like kind.

However, even a Tactical Nuclear weapons release will be the end of him. I don't not believe Nuclear release will occur unless Ukrainian Forces push him back to his boarders and then try to enter Russian Territory. Today, no nation can survive a Nuclear War, and most importantly there is no upside or benefit to the use of Nuclear weapons except possibly on a battlefield.

I certainly don't believe your cowardly in anyway, I just think you have not given enough thought to the subject!

Just in my humble opinion. 

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14 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

I know you have an issue with anything that suggest actions against Russia are working but the reality is the sanctions are hurting Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-curbs-russia-hit-car-production-tank-building-2022-03-30/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2022/03/22/russian-tank-manufacturer-sanctions-ukraine-war/amp/

There are more but Reuters and Fortune should be good enough.

I'm guessing you probably know very little about Russia and their manufacturing ability but one of the weakest links in Russian manufacturing is their inability to produce large amount of computer chips at a high enough quality and reliability.  Russia also has issues in producing stuff like night vision systems, thermal optic systems, and even HD cameras/optics.  Russia has had to import a lot of the components for advanced weapon systems from Europe and those were the first things the sanctions stopped being imported to Russia.  The sanctions essentially ended Russia's ability to produce modern/advanced weapon systems past the parts they had already acquired.

So, the Russian chip shortages are due to sanctions but the rest of the world’s chip shortages aren’t?

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41 minutes ago, and then said:

I'm curious, DH, what do you think will occur if the flow of superior weapons into Ukraine allows them to stalemate or even begin to push Russian forces from the country?

Russia has already been forced to abandon one front entirely and the Donbas offensive has seen minor gains.  Even than the gains have mostly been from the Ukranians purposefully falling back to increasingly better prepared defensive positions, the whole trading space for time/defense in depth strategy.  Currently all Putin has done is continue on the same course largely without doing anything to drastically change the situation.  

Its impossible to say what Putin will do as its impossible to say what mental state he is in and what information he is being told.  Arguably best thing to do is just look at all general cases of what he can do.

Putin could just decide to cut his loss and end the military operation but that is extremely unlikely given how that will leave him in a weak position inside Russia and will almost certainly end in his death.

So far Putin has continued along the same path regardless of what is happening more or less so it's very possible it continues.  In which case that would suggest Putin is either not well from a mental aspect and will probably be removed from power by the oligarchs and Russian military or he is getting told incredibly bad information in which case a lot of heads of Russia's intelligence, military, and government departments will probably find themselves facing execution.

Putin could decide to escalate which would either be declaring war on Ukraine and doing full mobilization or using nuclear or chemical weapons. 

Full mobilization now probably wouldn't help Russia in any meaningful way for awhile.  Just throwing mass infantry hasnt really worked out well since WW1 and would be even less effective now.  Training and equipping conscripts will take time and there is a very real possibility Russia might not even be capable of equipping a large conscript force.  For example Russia has approximately 13,000 tanks but only about 2,900 of them are in active service with 10,100 in reserve.  Of the active tanks at minimum about 600 have been lost at the low estimate, higher estimates are putting it closer to 1,000 lost tanks.  Between 20.6% and 34.4% of active Russian tanks are lost already.  Of those 10,100 reserve tanks not all of them can be returned to fighting ability, even less now with their tank manufacturing ability stopped.  Hard to say how many can be put into combat condition but given Russian corruption, the time span they been stored, the weather conditions they been stored in, and satellite images showing some tanks beyond reasonable repair than realistically probably about a third to half of the tanks could be repaired within 6 months to a year.  Similar pattern follows for all Russian military vehicles kept in reserve.  Ultimately mobilization might only be viable if Putin is planning on fighting this war for years to a decade.

Putin could also escalate by using nuclear or chemical weapons.  Chemical weapons are most likely but a tactical nuclear weapons arent impossible either.  Using nuclear weapons would cost Russia just about the entirety of what little international support it has.  Chemical weapons probably wouldn't cost it all or potentially any of its international support but would risk America/NATO/European countries getting involved in the conflict.  Using any type of weapons if mass destruction would be a desperation move by Putin.

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5 minutes ago, el midgetron said:

So, the Russian chip shortages are due to sanctions but the rest of the world’s chip shortages aren’t?

The entire world has been facing chip shortages but there is a big difference between chip shortages, not getting all the chips one wants but some, and not getting any chips at all.

The difference between shortage and completely cut off isnt that difficult to understand the difference between unless one is trying to being obtuse or play semantic games.

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22 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

The entire world has been facing chip shortages but there is a big difference between chip shortages, not getting all the chips one wants but some, and not getting any chips at all.

The difference between shortage and completely cut off isnt that difficult to understand the difference between unless one is trying to being obtuse or play semantic games.

I guess I need to ask for another source, Your sources do not support Russian import 100% “completely cut off”.

“March 30 (Reuters) - Global restrictions on exports to Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have shut down a car maker, halted work on tanks and cut a Russian computer maker's access to circuits used in communications equipment, a U.S. official said on Wednesday.

"Thirty-three countries have joined together with one export controls strategy," said Thea Kendler, assistant secretary for export administration at the Commerce Department.

"Necessity brought together this unprecedented collaboration on export controls and other measures that are having a meaningful impact on Putin's war."

While only about 5% of Russia's imports came from the United States, Kendler said, adding the European Union and other coalition countries accounts for roughly 50 percent of Russia's imports.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-curbs-russia-hit-car-production-tank-building-2022-03-30/

The source Tweet for your second link -

 

And General Motors has also “stopped” production amid the chip shortage,  So?

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/03/business/gm-plant-closings-chip-shortage/index.html

 

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4 minutes ago, el midgetron said:

I guess I need to ask for another source, Your sources do not support Russian import 100% “completely cut off”.

“March 30 (Reuters) - Global restrictions on exports to Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have shut down a car maker, halted work on tanks and cut a Russian computer maker's access to circuits used in communications equipment, a U.S. official said on Wednesday.

"Thirty-three countries have joined together with one export controls strategy," said Thea Kendler, assistant secretary for export administration at the Commerce Department.

"Necessity brought together this unprecedented collaboration on export controls and other measures that are having a meaningful impact on Putin's war."

While only about 5% of Russia's imports came from the United States, Kendler said, adding the European Union and other coalition countries accounts for roughly 50 percent of Russia's imports.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-curbs-russia-hit-car-production-tank-building-2022-03-30/

The source Tweet for your second link -

 

And General Motors has also “stopped” production amid the chip shortage,  So?

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/03/business/gm-plant-closings-chip-shortage/index.html

 

Now you are just being purposefully obtuse and playing semantic games I'm not particularly interested in playing.  Honestly if you are that desperate to defend Russia that you want to play stupid games than go ahead.

I know this is apparantly a very difficult subject for you to understand but Russia doesnt need to lose 100% of its total imports to be completely cut off from computer chips and other components it needs to build tanks and other military equipment.

General motors isnt making tanks, armored vehicles, missiles, or any vital military equipment at those plants.  Bringing that up has zero to do with the fact that the sanctions on Russia are working.

Given your difficulty in understanding other simple concepts this will probably be a waste of time but this graph shows where Russia imports its lose chips from.

img.thumb.png.5b982b95d4bca72e3a55ae25852f4429.png

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.protocol.com/amp/russia-chip-imports-2656829723

As can be seen the overwhelming majority is coming from European countries.  You will probably try to argue but Russia imports chips from China, Hong Kong, and Japan so they arent cut off completely.  The issue is I'm almost certain Japan joined the sanctions against Russia, they are sending aid to Ukraine and they still have territorial disputes with Russia.  As for China and Hong Kong its probably safe to assume Russia is still importing chips from them but what you will either ignore or overlook is that you just generally cant replace computer chip A with computer chip B.  They will tend to have different architectures and purposes.  So given that Russian tank production has stopped it's safe to assume the chips it needs for its tanks either comes from Europe, America, or Japan.

I'm sure you will continue to play some stupid semantic game cause you desperately need to defend Russia.  It is interesting you finally got off your fake anti-nazi soapbox.

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3 hours ago, and then said:

I'm curious, DH, what do you think will occur if the flow of superior weapons into Ukraine allows them to stalemate or even begin to push Russian forces from the country?

They are already doing this, slowly. (though they made pretty note worthy gains to.
They have pushed Russian forces around Kharkiv far enough back that they are no longer in Artillery range.

Russia has less Ukranian territory now then it did two weeks ago.

At the rate they are going, they will likely have taken back everything but the two "Breakaway" states and Crimea by the end of next month. That's assuming we don't get more gains like today were the Russians were simply pulling out and blowing bridges behind them. The real question is will Ukraine go for liberating Crimea from Russia.

The real question will be what political shape will Putin be in by that point.
I would be mildy interested in what some of the more blatant putin sycophant here think, more to see what kind of mental gymnastics they do.

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9 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

I suggest the key reason is that Russian oil and gas is still being sold, for much more profit, because of much higher prices.

And bearing in mind how limited the global oil and gas supply is, then all that happens is for those western countries already honouring the sanctions they end up buying Russian oil anyway through a second party. Look at the oil and gas prices my fellow Indians, lets buy it, and sell it to the West with our profit charged on top.

All the sanctions have done is driven up the price, and made Western countries buy what is very likely the same oil through a middle man.

Russian oil is being sold with heavy discounts.

Russian currency has "managed" to recover due to heavy investments by russian central bank, in other words it was very expensive to artificially bring the rublo back up.

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6 hours ago, and then said:

They DO seem to suddenly be eager to dial it back but the early reporting I saw was definite and it was celebrating the U.S. being partially responsible (or more) in targeting most of those general officers as well as the targeting of the Moskva.  It seems like someone (s) are trying to rub little Vlad's nose in it and while he certainly deserves humiliation, I also think it is INSANE to mindlessly try to wind him up and humiliate his forces in front of the whole world.

Some will no doubt question whether I'm cowardly and I'll tell them to their faces, when it comes to nukes... HELL YEAH, I'm "cowardly".

Lots of ego stroking going on and I think it is going to cost many lives as a result. Humiliating a man with nothing to lose and a big bag of nukes is just asking to get blown to smithereens. 

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37 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Lots of ego stroking going on and I think it is going to cost many lives as a result. Humiliating a man with nothing to lose and a big bag of nukes is just asking to get blown to smithereens

Again people keep thinking the **** will use nuikes, how do we know he will or wont?? It's just speculation, he's put his nuclear forces on red alert yes, but I bet hes done that caues he knows people are worried he'll actually use them! So maybe we call his bluff and help keep pushing his little cronies out of Ukraine and heck even arm Ukraine with long range, CONVENTIONAL (want to be clear with that) cruise missiles? I'm sure the Caucasus (spelling) would be a lovely little target.

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1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Lots of ego stroking going on and I think it is going to cost many lives as a result. Humiliating a man with nothing to lose and a big bag of nukes is just asking to get blown to smithereens. 

I believe the real question should be what will he gain by using a Nuclear Weapon?

 A Nuclear War is a no win situation for any Nation and for humanity in general. Only a unbalanced individual would actually start launching intercontinental ballistic missies, and with said the real question is in a situation like that would his military actually follow his orders, knowing they and their families would also die. This is the question all Nuclear Powers suffer with, hopefully if one of the worlds leaders are foolish enough to order it, the military will not follow them.

But, this will only count for the Nation that launches the first strike, because after that there will be no stopping it. 

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43 minutes ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Again people keep thinking the **** will use nuikes, how do we know he will or wont??

Nobody knows that with absolute certainty, besides Putin.

43 minutes ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

It's just speculation, he's put his nuclear forces on red alert yes, but I bet hes done that caues he knows people are worried he'll actually use them!

Yes - all we can do is speculate, but the fact that he has put his nuclear deterrent forces on red alert in tandem with the fact that  one of the most highly-informed individuals in the world - President Biden - has suspended the Minuteman III test launch until further notice, imho, speaks volumes to Putin's willingness and readiness to use nukes.

46 minutes ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

So maybe we call his bluff and help keep pushing his little cronies out of Ukraine and heck even arm Ukraine with long range, CONVENTIONAL (want to be clear with that) cruise missiles? I'm sure the Caucasus (spelling) would be a lovely little target.

Yeah, let's just keep poking the bear. What's the worst that could happen?

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7 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Nobody knows that with absolute certainty, besides Putin.

Yes - all we can do is speculate, but the fact that he has put his nuclear deterrent forces on red alert in tandem with the fact that  one of the most highly-informed individuals in the world - President Biden - has suspended the Minuteman III test launch until further notice, imho, speaks volumes to Putin's willingness and readiness to use nukes.

Yeah, let's just keep poking the bear. What's the worst that could happen?

Keep letting Putlet have his way then it could be WW3, keep doing what we're doing now in helping Ukraine defend and push back Putler's forces then it could be WW3, give Ukraine the means to hit the Russia hard then it could be WW3. What should we do then?

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1 minute ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Keep letting Putlet have his way then it could be WW3, keep doing what we're doing now in helping Ukraine defend and push back Putler's forces then it could be WW3, give Ukraine the means to hit the Russia hard then it could be WW3. What should we do then?

That's just it - I don't think we can stop WW3 at this point.

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Just now, Nuclear Wessel said:

That's just it - I don't think we can stop WW3 at this point.

To be honest, i always thought people were mad when they kept harping on about WW3 but I'm inclined to agree with you. So what do we do? This is NATO's best opportunity to weaken Putler's forces before something majoy MIGHT happen.

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Ye the world does seem to be going to ****, well at least our species the world will still be spinning. Putler and other players seem to be speeding up the process sadly. But as much as I want peace Wessel, I honestly think NATO should make the first move, if it is ready. Despite Putlers forces appauling display in Ukraine, (Ukraine have started counter attacks today), I believe NATO would wipe the floor with Putler conventionally, but obviously theres the nuclear question. And for me the nuclear question is, does NATO have the capability to take out/shoot down Putlers entire nuclear arsenal?

The UK has been beefing up its budget, but lets be honest most of that will  probably be wasted, my government has spent billions on a tank which still has problems and only a hand ful as been produced. Quite frankly, the UK will always be USA's little b**** until it gets on its own two feet again, if that happens.. Germany has drastically increased its defence budget but still has MAJOR issues with its military, i.e parts. Most of its fighter jets are grounded I believe (unless been solved), alot of their tank fleet can't operate and I believe there were issues with their subs. Now given time, Germany could militarize quicker than anyone in the world, I firmly believe that, they're a very efficient country with a **** load of industry and they're economy isn't currently set up for war production! NATO became way too reliant upon the States.

Now people doubt whether or not the States has the capability of dealing with Putlers nuclear arsenal, again I think no one truely knows. They currently spending about $800billion a year on its military, they're not gonna show their top cards are they? I bloody wouldnt!

I would like to state firmly, contrary to what I just posted and have done throughout this thread, I am actually an advocate for peace, just dont see an peaceful resolution. And at know point do I claim to be an expert. :lol:

 

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8 minutes ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

To be honest, i always thought people were mad when they kept harping on about WW3 but I'm inclined to agree with you. So what do we do? This is NATO's best opportunity to weaken Putler's forces before something majoy MIGHT happen.

It’s almost impossible for a single Super Power alone to start a world war, no single Nation has the resources or man power to do it alone Nuclear Weapons or not. At this point the conflict in the Ukraine is a regional conflict, nothing more and nothing less. The time to become concerned is if China joins Russia, and begins to invade Nations in Asia Taiwan for instance a long with a North Korean invasion of the South. Without Chinas support Russia has no Super Power Allies and Putin stands alone. However, if this occurs I suspect then a Nuclear Conflict would actually become reality, but again what does any Nation have to gain and the answer is simple nothing.

This is truly what WW3 would look like, if China starts true aggression and attacks it neighbors then it can be said that WW3 has begun. Hopefully this doesn’t occur, but if I were really concerned my eyes would be on Asia at this point.:yes:

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8 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

It’s almost impossible for a single Super Power alone to start a world war, no single Nation has the resources or man power to do it alone Nuclear Weapons or not. At this point the conflict in the Ukraine is a regional conflict, nothing more and nothing less. The time to become concerned is if China joins Russia, and begins to invade Nations in Asia Taiwan for instance a long with a North Korean invasion of the South. Without Chinas support Russia has no Super Power Allies and Putin stands alone. However, if this occurs I suspect then a Nuclear Conflict would actually become reality, but again what does any Nation have to gain and the answer is simple nothing.

This is truly what WW3 would look like, if China starts true aggression and attacks it neighbors then it can be said that WW3 has begun. Hopefully this doesn’t occur, but if I were really concerned my eyes would be on Asia at this point.:yes:

I'm constantly looking at Taiwan, I too think we should be arming them to their teeth aswell. Big problem with China is, if we sanction them it will have a HUGE impact on the world economy, given that aload of Western companies went there to exploit cheap labour.

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8 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

but again what does any Nation have to gain and the answer is simple nothing.

If he knows that he is unlikely to survive much longer anyway and if he knows he is going to lose then I don't think it would matter to him very much so long as he can take down and disrupt as many of his perceived enemies as possible, even at the cost of his own life.

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3 minutes ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Ye the world does seem to be going to ****, well at least our species the world will still be spinning. Putler and other players seem to be speeding up the process sadly. But as much as I want peace Wessel, I honestly think NATO should make the first move, if it is ready. Despite Putlers forces appauling display in Ukraine, (Ukraine have started counter attacks today), I believe NATO would wipe the floor with Putler conventionally, but obviously theres the nuclear question. And for me the nuclear question is, does NATO have the capability to take out/shoot down Putlers entire nuclear arsenal?

The UK has been beefing up its budget, but lets be honest most of that will  probably be wasted, my government has spent billions on a tank which still has problems and only a hand ful as been produced. Quite frankly, the UK will always be USA's little b**** until it gets on its own two feet again, if that happens.. Germany has drastically increased its defence budget but still has MAJOR issues with its military, i.e parts. Most of its fighter jets are grounded I believe (unless been solved), alot of their tank fleet can't operate and I believe there were issues with their subs. Now given time, Germany could militarize quicker than anyone in the world, I firmly believe that, they're a very efficient country with a **** load of industry and they're economy isn't currently set up for war production! NATO became way too reliant upon the States.

Now people doubt whether or not the States has the capability of dealing with Putlers nuclear arsenal, again I think no one truely knows. They currently spending about $800billion a year on its military, they're not gonna show their top cards are they? I bloody wouldnt!

I would like to state firmly, contrary to what I just posted and have done throughout this thread, I am actually an advocate for peace, just dont see an peaceful resolution. And at know point do I claim to be an expert. :lol:

 

It’s not about taking out Russias Nuclear Arsenal, it about making Russia a wasteland and yes NATO has more than enough Nuclear Weapons to do that. That is what I mean by what does any Nation have to gain by starting a Nuclear War, there will be no where to hide from the effects except underground facilities. But, even those lucky enough to survive the war can’t stay underground forever, like I have said the Nuclear option is a no win situation!

If it happens the best place to be is at ground zero of a Nuclear Burst, because long term any survivors will truly be in a Stone Age hell!:yes:

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Just now, Manwon Lender said:

It’s not about taking out Russias Nuclear Arsenal, it about making Russia a wasteland and yes NATO has more than enough Nuclear Weapons to do that. That is what I mean by what does any Nation have to gain by starting a Nuclear War, there will be no where to hide from the effects except underground facilities. But, even those lucky enough to survive the war can’t stay underground forever, like I have said the Nuclear option is a no win situation!

If it happens the best place to be is at ground zero of a Nuclear Burst, because long term any survivors will truly be in a Stone Age hell!:yes:

I'm well aware we can wipe out Russia, but I'm literally on about finding where all their nukes are around the world an nuetralise them. If we some how (extremely unlikely) managed to wipe out their nukes Putler would be nothing.

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Just now, Nuclear Wessel said:

If he knows that he is unlikely to survive much longer anyway and if he knows he is going to lose then I don't think it would matter to him very much so long as he can take down and disrupt as many of his perceived enemies as possible, even at the cost of his own life.

Yes but at that point would his military follow his orders and launch full well knowing it’s the end for them and their families also. That’s a question that can only be answered if it actually happens, until then we can only speculate nothing more!

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7 minutes ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

I'm well aware we can wipe out Russia, but I'm literally on about finding where all their nukes are around the world an nuetralise them. If we some how (extremely unlikely) managed to wipe out their nukes Putler would be nothing.

Yeah the whole point of M.A.D. Is that it is secure to the point of use.  Even if all the surface based launchers could be targeted and taken out, you have the Submarine arsenals to deal with.

If it comes to it, nothing we could do.

ETA:  when you explore the nuclear launch systems and vehicles, they are by far the nastiest, most insidious vehicles of war ever to have been conceived.  The very ugliest of truths.

The ICBM’s launch almost to orbit, out of range of any possibility of interception, then the final stage separates, fragmenting exposing multiple warheads, and fragmenting into pieces designed to scramble any tracking systems that might attempt to intercept from there, by this point they are hypersonic anyway, and it’s all over.

It disgusts me to think sometimes that we have developed such indiscriminate machines of destruction.

Edited by Grey Area
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