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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6

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9 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Kyiv, Odessa and Lviv are cities living relatively ''normal'' lives. They are not threatened by Russia at the moment.

I'm pretty sure Odessa is threatened by Russia considering they were just slammed by a barrage of missiles, and there is a blockade nearby.

*snip*

Edited by Saru
Removed personal insults.
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9 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Kyiv, Odessa and Lviv are cities living relatively ''normal'' lives. They are not threatened by Russia at the moment.

I've seen pictures of the shopping mall in Odessa, it is quite big and could have been used to store a lot of things.

Hi Occullt

Are you dreaming Odessa is under attack, of course they are being threatened and why people are not going to high volume traffic areas because Russia has bombed civilians and civilian occupied areas. You were already told by Dark that there would have been a BIG BOOM if the mall was warehousing arms and you still maintain that it COULD have been weapons.

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49 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I'm pretty sure Odessa is threatened by Russia considering they were just slammed by a barrage of missiles, and there is a blockade nearby.

 Russia is not going to attempt to seize Odessa any time soon. It can only be taken by an amphibious assault which carries risks, including high casualties.

But it's strategic transportation hub for Western weapons in Ukraine. Russia's strikes are intended to disrupt supply lines and arms deliveries.

The city centre is so far largely unscathed.

Edited by Occult1
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38 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Russia is not going to attempt to seize Odessa any time soon.

That doesn't mean they're not threatened.

39 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

The city centre is so far largely unscathed.

They're still threatened.

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9 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

That doesn't mean they're not threatened.

They're still threatened.

Odessa isn't in immediate danger of being taken by Russia...People still go about their businesses.

They had reopened a zoo back in march, in the middle of the invasion:

https://nypost.com/2022/03/26/odessa-zoo-in-ukraine-opens-to-visitors-for-first-time-since-russian-invasion/

Edited by Occult1
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Rumors of the Ukranian military has reached Vovchansk.  Given that the Ukranian military has made it to Staryi Saltiv than at minimum Vovchansk is within artillery range of the Ukranian military.  The significance of Vovchansk is that it is one of two major logistics routes for the Russian military to supply the troops around Izium.  Essentially two rail lines go from Russia to Kupiansk them split again to two rail lines that supply the Russian troops in Izium and Vobchansk is on one of those rail lines.  If true, now any supplies at Belgorod will need to be shipped to the other rail line before they can be sent to the troops.

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35 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Go ahead. Not my problem if you can't accept that there are other points of view.

No, the issue is that your points of view are extremely inconsistent. Your opinion changes as Putin changes his narrative. Look at your own post earlier in the thread and then compare them to the stuff you say now. It makes your opinion appear to be bad faith 

Edited by spartan max2
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1 minute ago, Occult1 said:

Odessa isn't in immediate danger of being taken by Russia...People still go about their businesses.

They don't have to be in immediate danger of being seized by Russia to feel/be threatened.

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11 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

No, the issue is that your points of view are extremely inconsistent. Your opinion changes as Putin changes his narrative. Look at your own post earlier in the thread and then compare them to the stuff you say now. It makes your opinion appear to be bad faith 

This is a developing situation. We can only guess what will happen next. We are not in Putin's mind. Even the best intelligence agencies have a hard time predicting what the next moves will be. It's anybody's guess, really. Only fools don't adjust their points of view when new information, and more relevant data become available. I have no stake in all this, I just share news articles and my opinion on what is a fascinating yet very important topic.

Edited by Occult1
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2 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

This is a developing situation. We can only guess what will happen next. We are not in Putin's mind. Even the best intelligence agencies have a hard time predicting what the next moves will be. It's anybody's guess, really. Only fools don't adjust their points of view when new information, and more relevant data become available. I have no stake in all this, I just share news articles and my opinion on what is a fascinating yet very important topic.

You went from pushing that Putin needs to de-natzify Ukraine and it's a threat to Russian security to Putin only wants to take one small chunk of Ukraine to liberate that region.

You're changing your opinion as Putin changes his talking points to cover his failed initial plan of taking Ukraine.

Edited by spartan max2
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19 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

You went from pushing that Putin needs to de-natzify Ukraine and it's a threat to Russian security to Putin only wants to take one small chunk of Ukraine to liberate that region.

I actually think Putin wants to partition Ukraine. I have referred to the North/South Korea scenario. First, Russia needs to fully liberate and establish a "buffer zone" in the Donbas. Then cut off the rest of the Ukrainian forces (including Azov neo-nazis) West of Donbas to claim victory in the east. The next step after that is to capture the southern coast of Ukraine, and that's where Odessa will be seriously threatened.

Edited by Occult1
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50 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

 Russia is not going to attempt to seize Odessa any time soon. It can only be taken by an amphibious assault which carries risks, including high casualties.

But it's strategic transportation hub for Western weapons in Ukraine. Russia's strikes are intended to disrupt supply lines and arms deliveries.

The city centre is so far largely unscathed.

How exactly is Russia going to do an amphibious assault on Odessa.  Russia can certainly try but it would end up a complete and utter failure.  

Turkey closed the Bosphorus straits so now the only naval ships Russia can move to the Black sea are ships that were already stationed at a port in the Black sea before it was closed and they were already in the Black sea.  Ultimately that leaves Russia with at most 2 Alligator class landings ships, 1 Ivan Glen class landing ship, and 9 Ropucha class landing ships for their main landing ships.  They got a handful of smaller ones like the Raptor class but those can only carry one vehicle or a few soldiers so not factoring those in given the low number in the Black sea.

Alligator class can carry between 300 to 425 troops and 20 tanks or 40 AFVs.  Ropucha class can carry 340 troops and 10 tanks or 340 troops and 12 BTR or 313 troops, 3 tanks, and various other military vehicles.  The Ivan Glen can carry 300 troops, 13 tanks, and 40 BTRs.  

At most Russia could land 4,210 troops, 143 tanks and 40 BTRs or 40 tanks and 228 IFVs/AFVs.  Given that Odessa is heavily defended do you honestly believe such a small force could take one of the largest cities in Ukraine.

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I just read that the house ok'd another 40 billion in aid to the Ukraine war , now i can agree to help them , but its getting to the point where its a bit over the top , almost like they are obsessed with it. We have our own country to deal with as well .Is there any other NATO member that has given as much as the US? You can notice inflation pretty much everywhere now ( even though i feel that some , if not many are rising their prices just because they can , even if they may not need to yet , under the guise of inflation), But still the US is constantly throwing billions around there like water. I mean , they were initially asking 33 billion , now they want to give 40 billion right quick. It took a lot longer for them to help their own people during the pandemic.

Edited by razman
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9 minutes ago, razman said:

I just read that the house ok'd another 40 billion in aid to the Ukraine war , now i can agree to help them , but its getting to the point where its a bit over the top , almost like they are obsessed with it. We have our own country to deal with as well .Is there any other NATO member that has given as much as the US? You can notice inflation pretty much everywhere now ( even though i feel that some , if not many are rising their prices just because they can , even if they may not need to yet , under the guise of inflation), But still the US is constantly throwing billions around there like water. 

America has definitely given the most by pure dollar amount but there are reasons for it. 

From a geostrategic view point arming Ukraine, regardless of the monetary cost, allows America to grind the Russian military down leaving it an ineffective fighting force for years, potentially a decade or more, which would allow America to pivot its attention and military might to Asia to counter China.  It ultimately ends up being far cheaper arming Ukraine than trying to fund a military large enough to counter both Russia and China at the same time.

From a military view point it allows the military to get rid of older weapon systems and gives them an excuse for why they will now need new weapon systems.  The arms industry is also all for sending more aid as that is more sells for them which than translate more money to lobby with.  

There is also the technological advancement view point where there will be a lot of interest among the military and arms industry on just how effective various weapon systems will be.

As for inflation the military aid to Ukraine isnt causing that at all.  All of the military aid America sent to Ukraine is just a drop in the bucket to the approximately $2.59 trillion the American government spent on covid aid since 2020.  

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11 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

America has definitely given the most by pure dollar amount but there are reasons for it. 

From a geostrategic view point arming Ukraine, regardless of the monetary cost, allows America to grind the Russian military down leaving it an ineffective fighting force for years, potentially a decade or more, which would allow America to pivot its attention and military might to Asia to counter China.  It ultimately ends up being far cheaper arming Ukraine than trying to fund a military large enough to counter both Russia and China at the same time.

From a military view point it allows the military to get rid of older weapon systems and gives them an excuse for why they will now need new weapon systems.  The arms industry is also all for sending more aid as that is more sells for them which than translate more money to lobby with.  

There is also the technological advancement view point where there will be a lot of interest among the military and arms industry on just how effective various weapon systems will be.

As for inflation the military aid to Ukraine isnt causing that at all.  All of the military aid America sent to Ukraine is just a drop in the bucket to the approximately $2.59 trillion the American government spent on covid aid since 2020.  

Yea i know what your sayin , and i don't think the military aid to Ukraine has caused the inflation. And definitely cheaper than funding a direct war ,Though it would be nice to see the administration focus on some issues back in the states as well, but it seems like when they try this , they bicker and bicker and it takes all kinds of time to get anything done,if they get anything done. Generally speaking.

Edited by razman
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Also begs the question of how much they are actually weakening them. I mean its been just a short time this war has been going on, its been said here that even Ukraine itself has another 900,000 soldiers  (i think it was) , in reserve. If China were to support Russia (or could possibly be even now) , i would guess it wouldn't take long for them to get replenished with supplies or war machines , or ammo or something.

Edited by razman
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2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

First, Russia needs to fully liberate

Hi Occuult

The majority of said region did not want to be liberated and want to be a part of the Ukraine it is an invasion for occupation and not liberating anyone.

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21 minutes ago, razman said:

Yea i know what your sayin , and i don't think the military aid to Ukraine has caused the inflation. And definitely cheaper than funding a direct war ,Though it would be nice to see the administration focus on some issues back in the states as well, but it seems like when they try this , they bicker and bicker and it takes all kinds of time to get anything done,if they get anything done. Generally speaking.

That's just how it goes, it's a lot easier to deal with an external issue than dealing with an internal issue.  Relatively easy to get most people in government to agree Russia is a problem, not so easy to get the same people to agree that there is a domestic problem let alone in how to solve it.

8 minutes ago, razman said:

Also begs the question of how much they are actually weakening them. I mean its been just a short time this war has been going on, its been said here that even Ukraine itself has another 900,000 soldiers  (i think it was) , in reserve.

Ukraine does have 900,000 reservists plus all the new volunteers they had which have signed up for military service since the war started.  Mobilizing all of them will take time though.

This war has required Russia to commit between 65% and 75% of its contracted military of which they have suffered significant casualties.  The VDV, some of the most elite units of the Russian military, have essentially been destroyed as a fighting force after multiple failed suicidal assaults.  Multiple guard units have been devastated and rendered combat ineffective.  In terms of active tanks depending on whose numbers one wants to use Russia has lost between 20% and 35% of its total active tanks.  Similar percentages for active IFVs and AFVs.  The stores of Russian precision munitions is running extremely low and at minimum will requires years, potentially a decade, to be restocked.  Despite only going on for 75 days Russia has lost more men and equipment than the USSR lost in 9 years of fighting in Afghanistan.

Edited by DarkHunter
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14 hours ago, Occult1 said:

 Russia is not going to attempt to seize Odessa any time soon. It can only be taken by an amphibious assault which carries risks, including high casualties.

Hi Occult

I imagine there would be casualties and mostly Russian if the try and amphibious attack

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220502-russia-struggles-to-turn-black-sea-rule-into-amphibious-attack

Paris (AFP) – Russia may rule the Black Sea but any amphibious assault on the Ukrainian coast seems risky while Kyiv's missiles threaten to destroy Russian ships if they get too close, experts say.

According to British intelligence sources, Russia operates around 20 warships in the Black Sea, where the balance of power is now static since Turkey blocks any access by vessels belonging to a warring party.

"It's their 'Mare Nostrum'," said Captain Eric Lavault, a spokesman for the French navy, a reference to the Latin term meaning "Our Sea" used in ancient Rome to describe the Mediterranean.

The fact that all the other Black Sea countries either already belong to NATO or hope to join the Western alliance has not cowed Russia's claim to supremacy.

 

 
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1 hour ago, razman said:

I just read that the house ok'd another 40 billion in aid to the Ukraine war , now i can agree to help them , but its getting to the point where its a bit over the top , almost like they are obsessed with it. We have our own country to deal with as well .Is there any other NATO member that has given as much as the US? You can notice inflation pretty much everywhere now ( even though i feel that some , if not many are rising their prices just because they can , even if they may not need to yet , under the guise of inflation), But still the US is constantly throwing billions around there like water. I mean , they were initially asking 33 billion , now they want to give 40 billion right quick. It took a lot longer for them to help their own people during the pandemic.

They have no choice. Without substantial U.S. backing, the Ukrainian military is simply no match against Russia.

And even with that amount of support provided, the best Ukraine can hope for is some sort of ''stalemate''. They will not be able to retake the land they have lost.

Edited by Occult1
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1 minute ago, Occult1 said:

They have no choice. Without substantial U.S. backing, the Ukrainian military is simply no match against Russia.

And even with that amount of funding provided, the best Ukraine can hope for is some sort of ''stalemate''. They will not be able to retake the land they have lost.

How do you explain the Ukranian military pushing back the Russian military back to the border from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and now Kharkiv.  There is also the issue of the Donbas offensive having largely stalled and making no significant gains.

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5 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

How do you explain the Ukranian military pushing back the Russian military back to the border from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and now Kharkiv.  There is also the issue of the Donbas offensive having largely stalled and making no significant gains.

not to mention that in some areas, Ukr have driven the R-army to the border, hopefully no one does something stupid as crossing the border.

Still the Rear Army...sorry russian army is still making slow and painfully advances in some areas.

Edited by godnodog
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Insane.

 

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8 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Insane.

 

This is only the beginning they are allocating Billions of more dollars as we speak!:yes:

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