Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[+Nuclear Wessel]

8 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Italy also called for an immediate ceasefire. If an agreement is reached, that would mean freezing the frontlines and Russia would keep Kherson Oblast, Mariupol and most of the Donbass region.

That is not going to happen because they have already ruled out ceding land or a ceasefire while they are occupying Ukraine. Keep dreaming. I know that you want Russia to come out on top of this but that is not going to happen.

Edited May 23, 2022 by Nuclear Wessel

[DarkHunter]

Seems like the Russians attacked from the Popasna front but made little to no gains, the no gains seems the more likely of the two.

Partisan activity, particularly in Kherson, continues to target collaborators working with the Russian military along with targeting Russian artillery in the area.  Partisan activity seems to be going on in Melitopol but seems to focus on attacking logistics and Russian collaborators.  An interesting tactic to demoralize the Russian troops in Kherson and Melitopol that the partisisns are using is putting up large amount of flyers throughout the cities.  The flyers normally have threats that any and all Russian soldiers will be killed along with anyone who collaborates with the Russian military but some of the flyers are now showing pictures of the Russian soldiers killed in various ambushes.  Its probably a rather effective demoralization tactic, especially for the troops who are ordered to remove the flyers and have to see killed fellow soldiers/friends.

Hearing unconfirmed reports that the Russians are throwing everything they got at the Popasna front as they are desperate to surround Severodonestk.  If the unconfirmed reports are true it's a complete meat grinder around Popasna for the Russians, heard one unconfirmed account of the Russians throwing together an ad-hoc battalion tactical group of only about 100 men from various destroyed battalion tactical groups and throwing them towards the front lines. Battalion tactical groups normally have between 600 to 800 men for comparison.

Interestingly information about Izium has largely stopped suddenly.  The last reports were from days ago and were of Ukranian artillery hitting targets right on the edge of Izium.  Only recent news was a cryptic message from a minister in the Ukranian government saying essentially interesting news from the Izium front may be coming out in the coming days.  Traditionally whenever Ukraine starts an operation it seems talk about that area stops immediately from just about every source till after the operation ends.  Not particularly helpful but either nothing is going on at Izium or something very big is going on at Izium.

Ultimately depending on whose estimates one wants to use all the Russian offensives throughout Ukraine will culminate either the last week of May to the second week of June.  Unless Russia gets a massive breakthrough very soon this will probably be the most territory Russia will capture since they abandoned the northern front and began focusing just on the Donbas region.  

Total Russian military might at the start/near the start was approximately 200,000 Russians, about 50,000 from Donetsk and Lunetsk combined, and 10,000+ from Chechnya.  According to UK intelligence a third of Russia's combat forces have been lost since the invasion started.  As Ukraine continues to raise new units from its mobilization the reality is Russia wont be able to hold the entire front with at best 170,000 troops with a massive amount of heavy equipment lost.

[Occult1]

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

That is not going to happen because they have already ruled out ceding land or a ceasefire while they are occupying Ukraine. Keep dreaming. I know that you want Russia to come out on top of this but that is not going to happen.

Zelensky is a U.S. puppet. The fate of Ukraine isn't really in his hands. He can be forced to the negotiating table by his sponsors. If the U.S.\NATO cut the flow of heavy weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, it's over. So it's not really up to the Ukrainian President to decide but it's more about how much longer does the West wants this to go on. Russia isn't backing down, I think they have made that clear by now.

Edited May 23, 2022 by Occult1

[+Nuclear Wessel]

2 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Zelensky is a U.S. puppet. The fate of Ukraine isn't really in his hands. He can be forced to the negotiating table by his sponsors. If the U.S.\NATO cut the flow of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, it's over. So it's not really up to the Ukrainian President to decide but it's more about how much longer the does West wants this to go on. Russia isn't backing down though, I think they have made that clear by now.

So if Zelenskyy is a US puppet, as you claim, and the US has as much control as you say, then it should bring you great confidence in the fact that Ukraine is highly likely to win this war, because the US has just approved $40B more for Ukraine on top of apparently getting Zelenskyy to refuse a ceasefire/giving up land to Russia.

The US/Ukraine isn't backing down, though, I think they have made that clear by now.

[+and-then]

12 hours ago, Occult1 said:

It's nothing spectacular, but it's working

Oh yeah, it's working okay... IF your goal is to reduce the area to rubble.  Russian tactics haven't advanced much since WWII, have they?  Looking at Mariupol, it gives flashbacks to Berlin in 1945.

[+and-then]

3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Germany and Italy also called for an immediate ceasefire. If an agreement is reached, that would mean freezing the frontlines and Russia would keep Kherson Oblast, Mariupol and most of the Donbass region.

Russia will eventually have to compromise and make peace and it will not be totally in their favor.  And that may or may not even be accepted by Ukraine.  The point you either don't grasp or refuse to face, is the picture in the months and years after Russia has "occupied" the devastated cities in the east.  Vlad may try to act beneficent after he has achieved the goal of closing down Ukraine's access to the sea and created a land bridge between Crimea and Russia but as long as NATO keeps supplying high-end weapons, Russian troops are going to keep bleeding and dying and he already has a shortage he will struggle to alleviate.  He can't begin general mobilization without admitting things are far from successful.  Even THEN, most of the malchiki he drafts will be demoralized and rebellious in short order.

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

 

[+Nuclear Wessel]

1 hour ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

 

God that was hilarious lmao

[spartan max2]

10 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

So if Zelenskyy is a US puppet, as you claim, and the US has as much control as you say, then it should bring you great confidence in the fact that Ukraine is highly likely to win this war, because the US has just approved $40B more for Ukraine on top of apparently getting Zelenskyy to refuse a ceasefire/giving up land to Russia.

The US/Ukraine isn't backing down, though, I think they have made that clear by now.

Putin needed to destroy Ukraines government and military in the first couple weeks to burn any idea of Resistance. But he failed at that objective and Ukrainians saw that they can fight Russians, and win. So now Ukrainians have that dangerous and contagious virus called hope. 

[Grey Area]

1 hour ago, spartan max2 said:

Putin needed to destroy Ukraines government and military in the first couple weeks to burn any idea of Resistance. But he failed at that objective and Ukrainians saw that they can fight Russians, and win. So now Ukrainians have that dangerous and contagious virus called hope. 

It’s easy to forget, no one expected Ukraine to survive Russian invasion.  When those Russian troops were building up on the border, and Putin was playing coy and accusing the west of hysteria, the most anyone had hoped for was that Ukraine might slow them down and inflict as many losses as possible before the fall of Kyiv.

I think we can all be forgiven for sharing that hope.

[DarkHunter]

America just announced that Denmark is going to deliver harpoon missiles to Ukraine to defend its cost.

[Coil]

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Russians now have 20 times more military equipment in the Donbas than the Ukrainian military. Zelensky stressed that he does not want hundreds of thousands of people to die in Ukraine, so we need weapons that operate at a great distance.

Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks in Donbas today. The fighters destroyed 22 armored vehicles, 8 tanks and shot down 7 UAVs.

 

[Coil]

The Russian invaders are making every effort to capture the Luhansk region. As it became known, the infidels stole a huge pile of equipment and 25 battalion tactical groups (BTG) in order to capture the region.There are about 500 people in each BTG, that is, about 12,000 racists who are going to seize Luhansk region.This Russian group is thrown into the offensive to either cut off the region from the rest of Ukraine or capture Severodonetsk.

The invaders are trying to establish full control over the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions and are building a multi-level defense. They are trying to ensure the stability of the land corridor with the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

In the Donetsk direction, enemy units did not abandon attempts to break through the defenses of our troops in order to cordon them off and reach the administrative borders of the Lugansk region. The main efforts are being concentrated on the Bakhmut direction.

 

 

[Occult1]

There are reports that Severodonetsk, the last Ukrainian outpost in Luhansk, is under intense bombardment and surrounded on 3 sides by pro-Russian forces.

So it's again a multi-pronged offensive and looks like a repeat of the Mariupol situation, except that the defenders have no complex underground tunnels to retreat into.

It looks like Russia is having a lot more success in Donbass than Western disinformation media have pushed, and might very well take over the entire region in the near future.

Edited May 24, 2022 by Occult1

[Occult1]

Russian forces advance in eastern Ukraine

Russian forces have taken control of three Donetsk region towns including Svitlodarsk, regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko has told a local affiliate of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Earlier on Tuesday, the Russian-backed Donetsk People's Republic said in a post on the Telegram messaging service that its forces had taken control of the town and replaced the Ukrainian flag with a Russian flag.

[...]

The decisive battles of the war's latest phase are raging in Ukraine, where Russia is attempting to seize the Donbas region of two eastern provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk, and trap Ukrainian forces in a pocket on the main eastern front.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/russian-forces-advance-eastern-ukraine-184701250.html

[Coil]

Russian troops from the Popasnaya region are trying to cut the Bakhmut-Lysichansk highway in the areas of the villages of Yakovlevka-Belogorovka-Berestovo. Fighting in this area has been going on for six days in a row. The exit of the Russians to the highway may mean that the main communications route to Lisichansk and Severodonetsk has been cut, and these cities may fall into an operational encirclement.

Geographically, the enemy is separated from this route by only one row of heights. And in practice, the Russians cannot overcome this last frontier, because the incredible heroism of the Ukrainian infantry and the effectiveness of the Ukrainian artillery inflict heavy losses on the Russians. The hard fights continue. But it is obvious that the Russian army is also not unlimited forces. They are not able to break through the defense, they are trying to push through. In no place has the enemy entered the highway, does not shoot through it with direct fire, but the road is under fire from artillery, mortars and rockets.

The situation is very difficult and it is getting worse every hour. The number of attacks is increasing. The Russian army decided to completely destroy Severodonetsk. Air bombs are dropped on the city, shot from multiple launch rocket systems, from artillery, from mortars, from tanks. They are wiping it off the face of the earth," the head of the Luhansk region said.

[Occult1]

8 minutes ago, Coil said:

Russian troops from the Popasnaya region are trying to cut the Bakhmut-Lysichansk highway in the areas of the villages of Yakovlevka-Belogorovka-Berestovo. Fighting in this area has been going on for six days in a row. The exit of the Russians to the highway may mean that the main communications route to Lisichansk and Severodonetsk has been cut, and these cities may fall into an operational encirclement.

Geographically, the enemy is separated from this route by only one row of heights. And in practice, the Russians cannot overcome this last frontier, because the incredible heroism of the Ukrainian infantry and the effectiveness of the Ukrainian artillery inflict heavy losses on the Russians. The hard fights continue. But it is obvious that the Russian army is also not unlimited forces. They are not able to break through the defense, they are trying to push through. In no place has the enemy entered the highway, does not shoot through it with direct fire, but the road is under fire from artillery, mortars and rockets.

The situation is very difficult and it is getting worse every hour. The number of attacks is increasing. The Russian army decided to completely destroy Severodonetsk. Air bombs are dropped on the city, shot from multiple launch rocket systems, from artillery, from mortars, from tanks. They are wiping it off the face of the earth," the head of the Luhansk region said.

I don't know what media you are quoting (there are no links provided in your posts) but it looks like an admission that Ukraine is loosing. I think the defenders will retreat from Luhansk region pretty soon.

They are loosing way too much troops and equipement for what amounts to a single outpost, when these resources could be better used to defend and fortify positions elsewhere.

Edited May 24, 2022 by Occult1

[DarkHunter]

For anyone who wants to see this so called Russian success there are these maps.  This newest Russian offensive began April 18 according to the Russian military itself.

What Russian held on April 18.

What Russia holds as of yesterday

Some minor scaling differences between the maps but they have more or less the same cities and towns in both maps.

After 36 days of intense fighting that is the entire success of the Russian military.  To give an idea of scale of the Russian advances, it is at best a couple miles.  From reports the Russians are throwing every aviable body at the Popasna front and is having what remains of their best troops leading the assaults.

[DarkHunter]

As I doubt many here are familiar with Ukranian towns and cities, Sievierodonetsk has a population of approximately 100,000, Slovyansk has a population of about 111,000, Kramatorsk has a population of approximately 150,000, and Brakhmut has a population of approximately 73,000.

Essentially Russian success has been confined to a rather small theater of operations that has only large towns.  From what I understand the Ukranian military was expecting to make a defensive stand at Slovyansk and Kramatorsk but the Russians still have yet to advance that far and are still essentially at the first line of defenses from a more strategic view.

[Silver]

Sadly, I think Ukraine is losing, even though they are being supplied with high quality weapons. They haven't the manpower or the willingness to throw them away as cannon fodder. I wish and hope this isn't the case:

 

[Occult1]

1 hour ago, The Silver Shroud said:

Sadly, I think Ukraine is losing, even though they are being supplied with high quality weapons. They haven't the manpower or the willingness to throw them away as cannon fodder. I wish and hope this isn't the case:

 

There was never any real 'chance' of Ukraine winning in the Donbass, that's the problem.

How many of these ''high quality weapons' even make it to the frontlines before the Russian bludgeon strikes and destroy? Probably not a great deal. Best case scenario we are slowing them down a little.

There are just too many factors that makes Russia'a success in eastern Ukraine almost guaranteed. First, the local population isn't resisting them at all. They also have much better supply lines. A lot more firepower and ressources. As much as the Western media likes to portray the Russian military as overrated and incompetent, they are still in fact very powerful and ranked #2 behind the U.S. Reality will not change simply because we wants it to.

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Occult1

[+Razman]

Since the Mexico border is a threat , maybe we should just invade and take , you know , just the northern provinces. Put a buffer south of the border.

Edited May 24, 2022 by razman

[Occult1]

31 minutes ago, razman said:

Since the Mexico border is a threat , maybe we should just invade and take , you know , just the northern provinces. Put a buffer south of the border.

The U.S. and Mexico have a generally cordial and friendly relationship despite border issues.

But I suspect that would change quickly if Mexico started to become a backdoor for The People's Liberation Army (PLA).

Edited May 24, 2022 by Occult1

[godnodog]

On 5/23/2022 at 10:51 AM, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

 

I almost wet myself laughing with the trump shower line

[Buzz_Light_Year]

12 hours ago, razman said:

Since the Mexico border is a threat , maybe we should just invade and take , you know , just the northern provinces. Put a buffer south of the border.

Yeah just what we need Tijuana and Juarez Mexico inside our border. Oh wait!

Last thing we need is another Chicago and Detroit.

I understand your point, but don't scare everyone like that.