Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[+Nuclear Wessel]

41 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

Something is coming, I think it will be NATO snatching what is left of Ukraine, but you never know.

I'm sure you're excited, just thinking about it.

[Helen of Annoy]

3 minutes ago, and then said:

As a NATO member-state, they couldn't do that and expect to be protected by Article V.  They are already helping to a huge degree with refugees and supplying arms.

Poland won't invade Ukraine. It's typically Ruzzian cretinism meant to "prove" Belarus is about to invade (to "protect" Ukraine from Poland - hilarious), serve as an excuse for such invasion and if possible poison the relations between allied Poland and Ukraine. 

It's so stupid it's almost too stupid even for Lukashenko. I bet he thinks it's ingenious. 

Ruzzian propaganda targets morons. They don't invent propaganda points for non-stupid people, they're not their audience. 

[DarkHunter]

Partisans in Kherson are continuing attacks on Russian soldiers.  Reports of two waiters killing two Russian soldiers and wounding a third while in a restaurant/cafe frequented by Russian soldiers.

[Trelane]

1 hour ago, Cookie Monster said:

Its not widely known yet in the West but NATO has begun a build up in Poland.

Something is coming, I think it will be NATO snatching what is left of Ukraine, but you never know.

Where do you get that information from? I'm active duty US military and there has been no increase of units in Poland out side of normal training rotations.

Are you referring to a massing of other NATO countries military assets? Who and what are you referring to? 

[Occult1]

Port of Odesa comes under missile attack as Russians advance in Ukraine

KYIV — Russian forces captured territory along a frontline river in eastern Ukraine on Monday and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy predicted Moscow would escalate attacks ahead of a summit of European leaders expected to welcome Kyiv’s bid to join the EU.

Moscow’s separatist proxies claimed to have captured Toshkivka, a town on the mostly Ukrainian-held western bank of the Siverskyi Donets river, south of Sievierodonetsk, which has become the main battlefield city in recent weeks.

Ukraine acknowledged that Moscow had success in Toshkivka and said the Russians were trying to gain a foothold there to make a breakthrough into the wider, Ukrainian-held pocket of the eastern Donbas region. It also confirmed a Russian claim to have captured on Sievierodonetsk’s eastern outskirts.

https://canoe.com/news/world/its-just-hell-there-russia-still-pounds-eastern-ukraine/wcm/48db3aa0-9712-45e8-af42-1149668f4564

 

Seems Russia is breaking through the last pocket of resistance in Luhansk region.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Occult1

[Occult1]

2 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Interesting use of the word “liberated”, here. Why “liberated”? 

Maybe because the common people in Donbas are welcoming the Russian forces?

Edited June 20, 2022 by Occult1

[+Nuclear Wessel]

Just now, Occult1 said:

Maybe because the common people in Donbas are welcoming the Russian forces?

Do you have current statistics on how many of the common folk in Donbas are "welcoming" Russian forces?

[godnodog]

2 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

Its not widely known yet in the West but NATO has begun a build up in Poland.

Something is coming, I think it will be NATO snatching what is left of Ukraine, but you never know.

Its been openly discussed in western media

[Occult1]

25 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Do you have current statistics on how many of the common folk in Donbas are "welcoming" Russian forces?

The facts speak for themselves. In the eastern part of Ukraine, which is more working class (the Donbass is a coal-mining region) and where Russian speakers make up the majority, the people have always been traditionally Pro-Russian. They love Putin and most people have relatives in Russia. They have consistently supported and elected Pro-Russian leaders in Ukraine. There is just no denying it. That's why Russian forces have success in that part of the country.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Occult1

[+Nuclear Wessel]

3 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

The facts speak for themselves. In the eastern part of Ukraine, which is more working class (the Donbas is a coal-mining region) and where Russian speakers make up the majority, the people have always been traditionally Pro-Russian. They love Putin and most people have relatives in Russia. They have consistently supported and elected Pro-Russian leaders in Ukraine. There is just no denying it. That is why Russian forces have success in that part of the country.

So your only argument is "facts speak for themselves" - you have no evidence to support your claim. Smells like sh!t to me. It doesn't surprise me that you're confused.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Nuclear Wessel

[Trelane]

41 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

The facts speak for themselves. In the eastern part of Ukraine, which is more working class (the Donbass is a coal-mining region) and where Russian speakers make up the majority, the people have always been traditionally Pro-Russian. They love Putin and most people have relatives in Russia. They have consistently supported and elected Pro-Russian leaders in Ukraine. There is just no denying it. That's why Russian forces have success in that part of the country.

You have no facts. You are simply parroting what the failed Russian federation is grasping for.

[Trelane]

The Russian failures in this operation are mounting and no matter the source it can't be denied. 

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russias-air-force-underperformed-ukraine-risk-averse-strategy-uk-says

"All the evidence is that Putin’s troops are under acute pressure themselves and they are taking heavy casualties. Their expenditure of munitions, of shells and other weaponry is colossal," (Boris)Johnson said in Kyiv.

"After our 114 days of attack on Ukraine, they have still not achieved the objectives they set out for the first week."

 

I personally think this historic failure will destroy Russia's society as it is now. It will take decades for it to reform itself and reclaim any legitimacy or honor.

[Duke Wellington]

4 hours ago, and then said:

If you read that carefully, you'll see I made no such claim.  The indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas, regardless of the numbers of dead civilians, is still a war crime.  My actual point was more about Russia's lack of fire and maneuver warfare capability.  They are doing to these Ukrainian cities exactly the same thing they did to Berlin nearly 80 years ago.  

I didnt mean what you yourself wrote, I`m referring to the early narrative.

[Occult1]

59 minutes ago, Trelane said:

The Russian failures in this operation are mounting and no matter the source it can't be denied. 

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russias-air-force-underperformed-ukraine-risk-averse-strategy-uk-says

"All the evidence is that Putin’s troops are under acute pressure themselves and they are taking heavy casualties. Their expenditure of munitions, of shells and other weaponry is colossal," (Boris)Johnson said in Kyiv.

"After our 114 days of attack on Ukraine, they have still not achieved the objectives they set out for the first week."

 

I personally think this historic failure will destroy Russia's society as it is now. It will take decades for it to reform itself and reclaim any legitimacy or honor.

Russia currently controls territories the size of Estonia in Ukraine. That's a fair bit of land gained against a country armed and trained to NATO standard. They have also created a land corridor between Kherson, Mariupol, DPR and Crimea. That was probably one of their most important objective. Also, they are expected to liberate all the Donbas by the end of summer. Somehow I don't believe the UK president and his propaganda.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Occult1

[Grim Reaper 6]

17 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Russia currently controls territories the size of Estonia in Ukraine. That's a fair bit of land gained against a country armed and trained to NATO standard. They have also created a land corridor between Kherson, Mariupol, DPR and Crimea. That was probably one of their most important objective. Also, they are expected to liberate all the Donbas by the end of summer. Somehow I don't believe the UK president and his propaganda.

Well it’s very simple to understand how they gained all the land,  NATO had not begun all the current support through aid until after the invasion occurred, so basically NATO is playing catch up. I don’t understand how you can count anything Russia has accomplished as a success though. When you consider their goal was to over run the entire country which failed miserably, what they have accomplished is rather insignificant in the scope of things. Finally when you consider the losses of equipment and human life their is nothing they have really gained, in fact they have lost far more than any gains they have made.

I have no idea where your coming from at all, I think if you really consider what Russia has accomplished compared to what I have outlined above even you can see their complete and total failure!

[DarkHunter]

22 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Russia currently controls territories the size of Estonia in Ukraine. That's a fair bit of land gained against a country armed and trained to NATO standard. They have also created a land corridor between Kherson, Mariupol, DPR and Crimea. That was probably one of their most important objective. Also, they are expected to liberate all the Donbas by the end of summer. Somehow I don't believe the UK president and his propaganda.

Taking the land corridor and being able to hold it are two completely different things.  There is heavy partisan activity in the occupied areas and Russia is losing ground around Kherson and in Zaporizhzhia oblast.  Russia pulled troops from around Melitopol to reinforce the Kherson front which has now caused Ukraine to advance quicker towards Melitopol.  With so many troops dedicated to the Donbas front they are being pushed back everywhere else.  

[Grim Reaper 6]

5 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

Its not widely known yet in the West but NATO has begun a build up in Poland.

it isn’t widely known, dude you have been asleep at the where.

5 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

Something is coming, I think it will be NATO snatching what is left of Ukraine, but you never know.

You comments above are so ridiculous they are not worth responding too. I think you would have a much better understanding of what’s happening if you simply followed the media.

Good luck

[Black Red Devil]

About the only positive thing the Russian's have been boasting about the economy is the fact they've managed to lift the Ruble up, probably hoping it would enhance buyers of their products.  The fear of sanctions eventually dragging the Ruble down again is keeping buyers away.  Why is it maintaining a good exchange rate?  Probably the single most important reason was they bought all their reserves of strong currencies (US $, EUR, Yen...) and transfered them into Rubles.

This guy gives a good holistic analysis of the reasons the Ruble is still strong.....but not for long.

 

[Grim Reaper 6]

53 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Russia currently controls territories the size of Estonia in Ukraine. That's a fair bit of land gained against a country armed and trained to NATO standard. They have also created a land corridor between Kherson, Mariupol, DPR and Crimea. That was probably one of their most important objective. Also, they are expected to liberate all the Donbas by the end of summer. Somehow I don't believe the UK president and his propaganda.

Here is the current update from the Ukraine, and a warning from President Zelenskyy. Today Hungary has approved the application for ‘the Ukraine to join the EU. The fact that so many EU Nations want the Ukraine to join the EU is going to cause a Huge response from Putin over the next few days it is expected that both Rocket and Artillery attacks will intensify. Because the last thing Putin wants is for the Ukrainian application to the EU to be approved because this will change the entire scope of the battle.

According to Russian build ups on the Ukraine borders, it appears that Russia is planning to try another assault on on the city of Kharkiv. Currently the Russian military is bringing up all their reserve Armor ( Tanks ) consisting of a large number T-62s along with some T-80s. It is suspected that the Russians will use this Armor in their attempt to take Kharkiv, but one thing is for certain the Ukrainian Military is aware of their intentions, along with the number of forces assembled and the equipment slated for the attack. The out come of this situation at this time is anyones guess, but with the Russian plans already known I suspect it will be a very difficult time for the Russians involved if they try to take Kharkiv.

All the information above is also in the video below and long with much more!

 

[Grim Reaper 6]

21 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

About the only positive thing the Russian's have been boasting about the economy is the fact they've managed to lift the Ruble up, probably hoping it would enhance buyers of their products.  The fear of sanctions eventually dragging the Ruble down again is keeping buyers away.

I think your right, at this point the Russian Ruble is far to volatile to buy for any kind of investment. I also agree the Sanctions are having a major effect on the volatility of the Russian Currency. Another major problem is the fact that the Sanctions have completely blocked the Russian Swift Codes which are used in all banking transactions that all Nations use to pay each other for goods.

Swift is the global financial artery that allows the smooth and rapid transfer of money across borders. It stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. The EU, US, UK and others have said that cutting banks out of Swift will ensure they "are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally". The aim is for Russian companies to lose access to the normal smooth and instant transactions provided by Swift, disrupting payments for its valuable energy and agricultural exports.

Banks now have to deal directly with one another, adding delays and extra costs, and ultimately cutting off revenues for the Russian government. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60521822

21 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

 

Why is it maintaining a good exchange rate?  Probably the single most important reason was they bought all their reserves of strong currencies (US $, EUR, Yen...) and transfered them into Rubles.

This guy gives a good holistic analysis of the reasons the Ruble is still strong.....but not for long.

 

 

[Black Red Devil]

On 6/19/2022 at 12:45 PM, DarkHunter said:

I'm not going to bother going through every single catagory of military vehicles, mostly cause I'm lazy and dont have the time, energy, or really desire to do so.

Tanks are a good indicator of why counts from global firepower are essentially useless.

NATO has combined approximately 14,832 tanks in service of which approximately 9,841 are active and approximately 5,022 are in reserve/storage.  These are pre-invasion numbers as a couple hundred tanks have been sent to Ukraine.

Before the Ukranian invasion Russia had approximately 2,927 active tanks and approximately 10,200 in reserve with some unknown stockpile of T-64, T-62, and T-55 tanks in various states of conditions.  Some T-64, T-62, and T-55 were being scrapped for the metal while others were being sold to various countries so it's not clear what their numbers currently are.  In total Russia has approximately 13,127 tanks.

Initially that would look good for your argument but it doesnt really hold when looked at deeper or in any meaningful way.

Of the 9,841 tanks NATO has approximately 2,782 are practically worthless as they are mostly M60 variants (1,532) and M48 variants (1,150).  Turkey has 200 M47 variants but they are in storage/reserve.  There might be more M60, M48, and M47 but they wouldn't exceed double digits as I just remember Turkey and Greece largely fielding them but there might be a few other countries who have them.  I know there is one eastern European country with a couple hundred T-55 variants in storage too but I'm too lazy to look it up or the number.

For Russia all of its tanks that it officially fields are T-90, T-80, and T-72 variants.  Generally the updated variants are fielded with older variants in storage/reserve but there are units that actively use older T-72 variants but those are largely units based in the far east who generally get the oldest and least updated equipment.  Active tanks for Russia are at approximately 2,927 while for reserve its approximately 10,200.  Unlike with NATO countries which generally keep their reserve tanks in somewhat good condition at minimum the Russians have not done so largely due to corruption and expense of doing so.  Of those 10,200 tanks its impossible to accurate determine how many are beyond repair at this time but it is a significant percentage, same for tanks that can be repaired within a couple of months to a year which would be of little use if the war is quick or at minimum highly destructive at the beginning.

While your list has Russian tanks close to parity in number with NATO tanks the reality is that NATO on paper has approximately 3 times the tanks it can bring to war immediately, or if looking at numbers of tanks that would be actually useful and ignoring the M60s and M48s it's still a 2 to 1 advantage in number of tanks.  It can be safely be assumed that approximately 30% to 50% of the stored tanks would require a couple of months to repair to being repairable.  NATO reserve tanks could in general be brought to combat much quicker due to being in better condition.  At best Russia could be expected to quickly field another approximate 5,000 to 7,000 tanks most of which would be early model T-72 tanks while NATO would be able to field quickly approximately 5,000 more tanks of which most are either Abrams or Leopard 1 tanks.  

While your list suggest parity in tanks the reality is NATO has at the start of a conflict a 2 to 1 advantage in tanks and within a first few months, assuming losses were roughly equal which is unlikely it would change to NATO having between 25% to 50% more tanks than Russia.

One last area I'm covering is number of soldiers which again is massively off.  America and Europe generally have a very small percentage of the population engaging in the military while Russia has a decently larger percentage engaging in the military largely due to lack of economic options and conscription.  The population of Russia is about 144 million people, population of NATO is approximately 948 million people.  In relatively short order, with a draft or a good recruitment drive, which a war with Russia would cause, NATO would drastically out number Russia in military personnel quickly.  Your numbers suggest a 5 to 1 advantage in NATO's favor but it would quickly become closer to a 10 to 1 advantage.

Aircraft numbers from the list are just off and naval numbers are just wrong considering Russia only has 10 destroyers and not 15, that being off is a massive problem as naval numbers are easy to figure out as it's hard to hide large warships.

LOL, you accumulated all these figures just to come to the same general conclusion of my post, that NATO is several times militarily stronger than Russia.  I'm not interested in a pi$$ing competition by comparing how many tanks are being repaired, polished and driving in the wrong direction.  If you're into analysis, you'll know there are unpredictable variances and you'll never have an exact figure when comparing thousands of units and a variety of situations pre and current war like you did. Also your number of tanks sidelined with a significant percentage being beyond repair.  How would you know it's a significant percentage, LOL?

Even your number of personnel, taking into consideration drafted numbers, means nothing.  How about if Russia was being invaded?  Would you say that might increase Russia's active personnel, like what happened with the Ukrainians.  They wouldn't be professional soldiers but ARE active personnel.

So trying to win some pi$$ing competition doesn't interest me and all it does is derail Manwon's thread.  Even more so when you're just supporting my argument.  It will be my last response to you on this.

Apart from that, good analysis , although you defied a basic UM 'credibility rule', you didn't provide a link.

[Grim Reaper 6]

7 hours ago, and then said:

If you read that carefully, you'll see I made no such claim.  The indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas, regardless of the numbers of dead civilians, is still a war crime.

And Then you are certainly right, I can’t figure out what the Cookie Monster is thinking in fact I am totally confused.

7 hours ago, and then said:

 

  My actual point was more about Russia's lack of fire and maneuver warfare capability.  They are doing to these Ukrainian cities exactly the same thing they did to Berlin nearly 80 years ago.  

Again your right on target, leveling cities for no reason other than the fact you can is proof that Russia could care less about civilian casualties and they could also careless if their actions are Crimes Against Humanity. This should make the rest of the world standup and take notice, because if the Russian threat is not eliminated now any Nation that is near Russia will suffer the same fate!

Take care.

[Black Red Devil]

11 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

I think your right, at this point the Russian Ruble is far to volatile to buy for any kind of investment. I also agree the Sanctions are having a major effect on the volatility of the Russian Currency. Another major problem is the fact that the Sanctions have completely blocked the Russian Swift Codes which are used in all banking transactions that all Nations use to pay each other for goods.

Swift is the global financial artery that allows the smooth and rapid transfer of money across borders. It stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. The EU, US, UK and others have said that cutting banks out of Swift will ensure they "are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally". The aim is for Russian companies to lose access to the normal smooth and instant transactions provided by Swift, disrupting payments for its valuable energy and agricultural exports.

Banks now have to deal directly with one another, adding delays and extra costs, and ultimately cutting off revenues for the Russian government. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60521822

 

The only thing going for Russia is their energy supply.  China will keep on buying oil and products from Russia, the same with Iran, Syria and some of the old ex Soviet Republics but there will be more and more pressure put on other non aligned Russian nations (India, Brazil...).  In the end Russia will always get financial gains for some of their exports but the slow stranglehold will eventually deflate their war resources.  It's more about NATO and the Ukraine continuing to do what they're doing, with increasing resilience (Ukraine) and with enhanced and better supplies (NATO weaponry).  Eventually Russia will crack IMO.

[Occult1]

8 hours ago, and then said:

That was happening prior to the start of this conflict.  War in Ukraine has not helped it but the economy was already headed down and will continue to do so.

I disagree.

It's starting to be recognized by the Biden administration and European countries that the anti-Russian sanctions are making things a lot worst. They are backfiring on us.
 

How Biden got caught in Russia's oil and gas web — and who is paying the price

''Have the crippling sanctions imposed on Russia as a response to its war of conquest in Ukraine backfired on the West? That concern is being expressed across Europe and, increasingly, it is one that President Joe Biden’s administration shares.

Bloomberg News reported last week that the White House was “initially impressed” by the impact the post-invasion sanctions regime was having on the Russian economy and by Western firms’ willingness to voluntarily divest from the Russian marketplace. But, as that story points not, not only are those sanctions “exacerbating inflation” and “punishing ordinary Russians more than Putin or his allies,” the Russian energy sector — the country’s largest revenue generator by far — hasn’t suffered much at all.''

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-s-oil-gas-prices-problem-russia-ukraine-problem-n1296450

 

How long until Western citizens get tired of paying the price for the Ukainian war? Especially since we are been told that this could last for years.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Occult1

[Grim Reaper 6]

21 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

The only thing going for Russia is their energy supply.  China will keep on buying oil and products from Russia, the same with Iran, Syria and some of the old ex Soviet Republics but there will be more and more pressure put on other non aligned Russian nations (India, Brazil...).  In the end Russia will always get financial gains for some of their exports but the slow stranglehold will eventually deflate their war resources.  It's more about NATO and the Ukraine continuing to do what they're doing, with increasing resilience (Ukraine) and with enhanced and better supplies (NATO weaponry).  Eventually Russia will crack IMO.

Yes you are certainly right, that’s also how I view the current situation. In the near future Russia will begin to experience the results of the sanctions fully, because their reserves are going to run out and when this happens it going to be very painful.