Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[spartan max2]

4 hours ago, el midgetron said:

That’s not at all my position or the contents of my posts. Everyone is responsible for their actions and choices they make, Your commentary seems to imply that Ukraine has no freewill or autonomy of choice. That once Russia invaded, Ukraine’s destiny no matter how dire or devastating was set. 
 

The home owner isn’t to blame for their house being burglarized. However, what the homeowner does in response to the burglary is 100% their responsibility. If you shoot at a burglar and miss and it hits some random person across the street, that is your fault (not the burglars) and you are liable. If you burn down your house to stop it from being burglarized, your house burning down is not the fault of the burglar. 

Sure. Its not your position. You just happen to post countless articles and opinion pieces that support that position that you don't have 

[el midgetron]

2 hours ago, The Silver Shroud said:

Just a fun post. Welcome to Ukraine:

 

What strikes me about that video is all the craters in those fields. With that much munitions being spent there you would expect more vehicle wreckage. I’ve seen so much of the devastation to urban areas, an open crater-scape like that is just a striking juxtaposition.

I don’t doubt the authenticity of the video but I see what I believe cookie is talking about. There is a second or two missing as the camera pans out. It might not be “missing” anything but the field of video suddenly jump as-if it’s missing a second or two.  It creates the feel that it jumps to another video. It appears to all be the same video to me, its just missing a small section of the zoom out,  it’s right at the 7 to 8 second mark 

[Silver]

31 minutes ago, el midgetron said:

What strikes me about that video is all the craters in those fields. With that much munitions being spent there you would expect more vehicle wreckage. I’ve seen so much of the devastation to urban areas, an open crater-scape like that is just a striking juxtaposition.

I don’t doubt the authenticity of the video but I see what I believe cookie is talking about. There is a second or two missing as the camera pans out. It might not be “missing” anything but the field of video suddenly jump as-if it’s missing a second or two.  It creates the feel that it jumps to another video. It appears to all be the same video to me, its just missing a small section of the zoom out,  it’s right at the 7 to 8 second mark 

I know exactly what you mean. Obviously the videos posted on the internet are for propaganda purposes.The Ukraine ones seem far more authentic than Russian ones. That tank was smoking before the explosion, it might have hit a mine or a missile, started cooking and then exploded.The "jump" is the camera failing to adjust to the light intensity of the explosion. Also some of the drone vids are of the target and then the result, and they are joined even though there has been a time lag. The Ukrainian videos are open to international scrutiny for their authenticity.

The numerous craters in the fields around the targets- we are talking about indirect fire, not aircraft or drones with targets in their sights. A mortar or field gun does not have pinpoint accuracy, and some shots are ranging shots. When you consider a shell costs £1000, and the target tank costs £750,000 to £2,000,000, a dozen or more ranging shots are good value. Also dropping shells all around hits troops who have bailed out and lowers morale. The Ukrainians are getting more modern NATO artillery now. And modern military drones can give real time co-ordianates of targets.

The only way Russia can win now is by increasing civilians deaths to such an extent that the West can no longer endure it- militarily Russia is showing itself to be worthless.

Edited July 3, 2022 by The Silver Shroud

[el midgetron]

1 hour ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Do you agree that Russia leaving Ukraine would be the best solution to end the war? Do you believe they SHOULD? 

Yeah, on both accounts, that would be great, I want peace for Ukraine and the world and that would get the job done. I don’t believe Russia will just up and leave though. No one believes Russia will just up and go home, So, the reality is many more months possibly years of war for Ukraine with no guarantee of any specific outcome. That sucks. 
 

What if in 8 months Russia controls 50% of Ukraine, tens of thousands more Ukrainians have been killed, tens of millions of Africans are dying from famine, Global economies and energy supplies are in turmoil and international support for the war has all but collapsed? 
 

Everyday without peace the only assurance we have is that there will be more war, 

 

[el midgetron]

22 minutes ago, The Silver Shroud said:

The only way Russia can win now is by increasing civilians deaths to such an extent that the West can no longer endure it- militarily Russia is showing itself to be worthless.

….I think you underestimate the US’s ability to endure civilian deaths. 

[Cookie Monster]

5 hours ago, The Silver Shroud said:

 

Look at the top one, look at the grass, you can see the blades of grass, thats a Russian toy tank sat on a patch of grass in some ones garden surrounded by some holes which they have dug with a spoon or something.

Why does the video cut when zooming out, and zooming back in? Come on, use your brains people. Someone has done some video editing to join together 2 videos.

The zoomed out video shows something which actually got destroyed in that field (but not what). Someone spent a good hour carefully placing the toy tank in their backyard, and carefully digging holes with a spoon to match the craters in the real field. They then filmed themselves blowing up the toy tank and filmed it. They then stuck that clip before and after the real video to make you think a Russian tank just went boom.

Edited July 3, 2022 by Cookie Monster

[jmccr8]

2 hours ago, el midgetron said:

What if in 8 months Russia controls 50% of Ukraine, tens of thousands more Ukrainians have been killed, tens of millions of Africans are dying from famine, Global economies and energy supplies are in turmoil and international support for the war has all but collapsed? 

Hi El

Not likely that Russia will be able to gain 50% of the Ukraine at any time considering the support they now have and Putin has been flapping his gums about taking on more conflict with other countries and they do not actually have the clout to back up their threats without slitting their own throat.

Yes millions of people are starving because of Russia and they need to be stopped as they are selling stolen grain from the Ukraine to favorable allies rather then sending it where it is desperately needed. Russia is faltering in many ways because of the sanctions that have been imposed and resorting to criminal activity to try and keep themselves afloat. Kind of funny it was their criminal activities at home that devalued their weapons inventory.

[DarkHunter]

11 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Though if I recall correctly, it was quite some time ago (months) that @DarkHunter mentioned that there would be logistical issues with developing S-500s en masse. Might be wrong tho

The issue now is that Russia has been cut off from the vast majority of its computer chip supply along with sensors and other high end electronic equipment that is needed to build any advanced military equipment.

Russia never really developed advanced production ability and relies on imports of advanced components instead of making them.  

With the ongoing war and the sanctions pretty much killing the majority of Russian imports, especially of vital equipment, Russia wont be able to mass produce the S-500, which they just started making and they will have no significant impact in the war.  From reports Russia has been forced to stop building new tanks and upgrading older tanks due to lack of electronic components.  A lot of Russian industry is grinding to a halt and in three to six months there is going to be severe economic issues in Russia if not sooner.

[DarkHunter]

The Ukranian military has targeted and destroyed the Russian supply depot at the Melitopol airport, seems they used HIMARS to do it.

[el midgetron]

Ukraine’s drone blitz loses its edge as Russian invasion advances

The early weeks of the war in Ukraine were dominated by social media posts showing Russian tanks decimated by small, cheap drones that helped level the playing field and largely negated Moscow’s massive advantage in manpower and equipment.

Drones, military analysts said, were a key reason Kyiv was able to turn back a planned Russian lightning attack and force the Kremlin to junk its original battle plan.

But that edge is rapidly evaporating, researchers and military observers say, as fresh Russian anti-drone systems arriving on the front lines of the bloody slog in the eastern Donbas region are making the unmanned craft far less effective and depriving Ukrainian troops of a once-potent tool.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jul/2/ukraine-losing-its-drone-edge-war-russia-drags/

[ThereWeAreThen]

5 hours ago, el midgetron said:

….I think you underestimate the US’s ability to endure civilian deaths. 

I'll agree with this Iraq was horrible.

[Helen of Annoy]

1 hour ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

I'll agree with this Iraq was horrible.

But that was Iraq, while this is Ukraine. Whataboutism cannot justify Russian aggression against Ukraine, or help you predict the outcome of this war.

 

Firstly, the number of civilian deaths in Ukraine is not US fault, it is solely Russian fault. 

Secondly, military competence of Iraqi army back then and Ukrainian army today is very, very different. 

Thirdly, the US (together with the EU - when Macron suggests appeasing Putin is an option, he does not imply Ukraine should be or could be forced to do so) repeats that only Ukraine can and will decide if there will be negotiations before Russia is defeated. 

Zelensky was clear too, only Ukrainians in referendums may give their permission for any concessions to Russia. According to the polls, Ukrainians will not give such permission.  

When I said this is "thirdly", it's thirdly in the context of commenting the Russian propaganda which is trying to trick westerners into believing Ukrainian decisions can be and are made in the USA. In reality, this "thirdly" is the first and the only reason why Russia won't be given any concessions. 

Russia cannot force Ukraine into surrendering, by attempting to murder more civilians with missile strikes.

Firstly, because it's not how it works with Ukrainians. Just relatively recent history: they kept their identity through Holodomor, WWII and its aftermath. This war is not a novelty, it's a continuation of Russian attempts to russify, to literally steal Ukrainian resources, history and population. 

Secondly, because they're using soviet arsenal for their war crimes against Ukrainian civilians. That arsenal is vast, but its operational portion is much smaller and much less functional than Russia wanted everyone to think. If Russia can't produce modern weapons, if it's limited to their depleted and outdated arsenal, it can be defeated easier and faster. 

 

Russian defeatist propaganda is not realistic, it aims at creating impression that resisting the "invincible" Russia is futile. 

Russian anti-American propaganda is not realistic, it implies that the population of Ukraine (or any other American ally) is too stupid to see how wonderful Russia is, compared to the US. 

Russian "peacenik" propaganda is not realistic, it comes down to suggestion that the victims must be blamed for the crimes, because the perpetrators were "provoked" and that victim resisted thus "provoking" more severe crime. They borrowed that excuse from rapists, domestic violence perpetrators and other criminal *******s. 

Russian propaganda is offensive because it treats its targeted victims as imbeciles. 

Edited July 3, 2022 by Helen of Annoy
apostrophe catastrophe

[ThereWeAreThen]

27 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

But that was Iraq, while this is Ukraine. Whataboutism cannot justify Russian aggression against Ukraine, or help you predict the outcome of this war.

 

Firstly, the number of civilian deaths in Ukraine is not US fault, it is solely Russian fault. 

Secondly, military competence of Iraqi army back then and Ukrainian army today is very, very different. 

Thirdly, the US (together with the EU - when Macron suggests appeasing Putin is an option, he does not imply Ukraine should be or could be forced to do so) repeats that only Ukraine can and will decide if there will be negotiations before Russia is defeated. 

Zelensky was clear too, only Ukrainians in referendums may give their permission for any concessions to Russia. According to the polls, Ukrainians will not give such permission.  

When I said this is "thirdly", it's thirdly in the context of commenting the Russian propaganda which is trying to trick westerners into believing Ukrainian decisions can be and are made in the USA. In reality, this "thirdly" is the first and the only reason why Russia won't be given any concessions. 

Russia cannot force Ukraine into surrendering, by attempting to murder more civilians with missile strikes.

Firstly, because it's not how it works with Ukrainians. Just relatively recent history: they kept their identity through Holodomor, WWII and its aftermath. This war is not a novelty, it's a continuation of Russian attempts to russify, to literally steal Ukrainian resources, history and population. 

Secondly, because they're using soviet arsenal for their war crimes against Ukrainian civilians. That arsenal is vast, but its operational portion is much smaller and much less functional than Russia wanted everyone to think. If Russia can't produce modern weapons, if it's limited to their depleted and outdated arsenal, it can be defeated easier and faster. 

 

Russian defeatist propaganda is not realistic, it aims at creating impression that resisting the "invincible" Russia is futile. 

Russian anti-American propaganda is not realistic, it implies that the population of Ukraine (or any other American ally) is too stupid to see how wonderful Russia is, compared to the US. 

Russian "peacenik" propaganda is not realistic, it comes down to suggestion that the victims must be blamed for the crimes, because the perpetrators were "provoked" and that victim resisted thus "provoking" more severe crime. They borrowed that excuse from rapists, domestic violence perpetrators and other criminal *******s. 

Russian propaganda is offensive because it treats its targeted victims as imbeciles. 

Oh I know, think you know my stance on this war by now. 

But in all seriousness this war has been barbaric, I dread to think the total number of civilian deaths.

Everything you said is right.

[Helen of Annoy]

59 minutes ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Oh I know, think you know my stance on this war by now. 

But in all seriousness this war has been barbaric, I dread to think the total number of civilian deaths.

Everything you said is right.

I know   So it wasn't meant as any sort of lecture for you, absolutely not, I just think that Russian propaganda methods and talking points should be constantly exposed as such. 

 

What is typical for civilian deaths in this war, is that they are much higher in areas infested with Russians. 

(Typical missile attack, even when successful, takes 2-20 lives on average. While Russian occupation means steady stream of corpses, even after the actual fight is over. Occupying Mariupol took at least 10,000, maybe even more than 20,000 and that number is growing on daily basis because orcs don't do infrastructure, they only do murders and propaganda.) 

Because this war is genocidal - the job of orcs is to destroy Ukrainian identity. If you're not willing to russify yourself, you will be tortured and murdered. The "Russian" identity orcs are trying to implement is not an actual Russian, but Putinist Russian. It's not just that you have to switch cultural identity, you also have to become an obedient asset of a totalitarian regime.  

Which is why civilian death toll is strengthening the resistance.  

These famous concessions were possible in 2014-2022 period precisely because Russia haven't went full genocide then. Now it did. Now it's the war between humane and inhumane, very far above petty politicization. 

Edited July 3, 2022 by Helen of Annoy

[Helen of Annoy]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3520685-ukrainian-forces-destroy-russian-military-base-in-melitopol.html

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have destroyed one of the four enemy military bases in the temporarily occupied city of Melitopol, Zaporizhia region.

Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said this in a Telegram post, Ukrinform reports.

"Tonight, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed one of the four military bases of the Rashists. They launched more than 30 strikes exclusively on the Russian military base," he wrote.

...

On July 2, thanks to Ukrainian resistance forces, an armored train with ammunition of the Russian troops derailed, Fedorov said.

 

[ThereWeAreThen]

Reports suggesting Lysychynsk (spelling) is surrounded by orcs. Thought with tbe geography Ukrainians would've last a bit longer even though I expected Ruzzia to take Luhansk eventually.

Western weapons are arriving to slow. Even though I've also heard ukraine are preparing for a major counter attack, why the **** would they advertise that I don't know.

[Helen of Annoy]

41 minutes ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Reports suggesting Lysychynsk (spelling) is surrounded by orcs. Thought with tbe geography Ukrainians would've last a bit longer even though I expected Ruzzia to take Luhansk eventually.

Western weapons are arriving to slow. Even though I've also heard ukraine are preparing for a major counter attack, why the **** would they advertise that I don't know.

I hear you. But there's something that calms me down, it's the fact that even if someone had a crystal ball that can predict what exactly Ukraine will do next and when, what is the exact reason for particular moves or lack of them, they still couldn't tell us. 

[Helen of Annoy]

 

It's not just about tough Lysychansk situation, there are some promising news too, about orc ammo depots being blown up by long-range artillery and new Bayraktars.  

[ThereWeAreThen]

19 minutes ago, Helen of Annoy said:

I hear you. But there's something that calms me down, it's the fact that even if someone had a crystal ball that can predict what exactly Ukraine will do next and when, what is the exact reason for particular moves or lack of them, they still couldn't tell us. 

I'm kinda hoping they're BSing about the speed of weapons coming into ukraine. If in theory alot of the weapons are in Ukraine then it may be true a major counter attack could happen next few months but I'm skeptical about it. 

However I find it how strange the orcs have taken Lysychynsk compared to other cities. 

[+Nuclear Wessel]

Seems like there was an attack on Russian soil today.

At least three people have died in explosions in the Russian city of Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine, said regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.

The blasts partially destroyed 11 apartment buildings and at least 39 private residential buildings, he said.

Air defence systems were activated by the blasts, he added.

The governor's statement could not be independently confirmed and there was no immediate reaction from Ukraine.

Source: Deadly blasts hit Russian border city - BBC News

[ThereWeAreThen]

10 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Seems like there was an attack on Russian soil today.

At least three people have died in explosions in the Russian city of Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine, said regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.

The blasts partially destroyed 11 apartment buildings and at least 39 private residential buildings, he said.

Air defence systems were activated by the blasts, he added.

The governor's statement could not be independently confirmed and there was no immediate reaction from Ukraine.

Source: Deadly blasts hit Russian border city - BBC News

Air defence systems activated by the blasts? Wouldn't they have picked them up on radar and intercepted them or am I wrong about how missile systems work?

[+Nuclear Wessel]

4 minutes ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Air defence systems activated by the blasts? Wouldn't they have picked them up on radar and intercepted them or am I wrong about how missile systems work?

They probably would have been activated by the incoming missiles. May just be ignorance on the part of the reporter.

 

[Silver]

Sadly, the Ukrainians are being pushed back. The Russian army may be incompetent, but it is big, and Putin's future rests on achieving some kind of victory. What was supposed to be a walk in the park has turned into a meat grinder, but if you don't actually care about man-power losses, you can keep grinding on.

If Russia seizes control of Ukraine, the people of Ukraine face a miserable future. Instead of living in a free, wealthy world, which the EU offers, they will live in a 2nd World Socialist State dominated by poverty, kleptocracy and secret police.

I think the West should up the game, world starvation would be the justification, and free up Ukraine's wheat and sunflower fields. Just tell the Russians to **** off out of Ukraine. Like tomorrow. Issue an ultimatum.

Ukraine war latest: Russia claims to have taken key city of Lysychansk - BBC News

[Helen of Annoy]

1 hour ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

I'm kinda hoping they're BSing about the speed of weapons coming into ukraine. If in theory alot of the weapons are in Ukraine then it may be true a major counter attack could happen next few months but I'm skeptical about it. 

However I find it how strange the orcs have taken Lysychynsk compared to other cities. 

Better skeptical than disappointed  

 

I am p***ed off because of Lysychansk, of course, I'd p***ed off if it was only a barn. But realistically, 5 km to the east or to the west, after the area was destroyed already, doesn't matter. 

Look at the bright side, which is that Ukrainian long-range stuff started inflicting serious damage to Russian depots and command centers. That matters. 

 

[Helen of Annoy]

I ate a "be" up there. I'd be p***ed off, of course. Anyway. 

 

The latest example that shows pro-Russian narrative spammed on the Internet, falsely presented as "objective" or "pacifist" is verbatim official Russian stance. (Ukrainians have no own opinion, Ukraine must surrender, the West must surrender, the West is the reason why Ukrainians can't think of peace... grotesque. Just grotesque.)  

And more importantly, Peskov inadvertently admits that Russia cannot achieve its goal of defeating Ukraine, as long as there's Western aid for Ukraine. tee-hee. Off to the garbage dump of history with USSR and its zombie version, Ukraine is giving you a ride.  

 

 https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/3/7356111/

Dmitrii Peskov, press-secretary for the President of Russia, claims that Ukraine has to understand Russia’s conditions and resume talks.

"Kyiv has to understand Russia’s conditions, agree with them, resume talks and sign a document."

Peskov is convinced that, at the moment, the West leans towards continuing military action in Ukraine, and that allegedly "Western countries led by Washington…don’t let Ukrainians either think or talk about peace."

He also added that "sooner or later common sense in the West will prevail and the talks will resume."